PAF J-10C News, Updates and Discussion

[PanzerKiel]

I have a question guys?

This adds up to 388. Is there a particular number PAF wants to maintain?

Yes. It has been calculated, and then at every level, everyone is responsible to maintain that minimum number. Same goes for army as well.

I have a question guys?

We won't have any parity with Indian fleet if it wasn't for our hand full Block 52s. They seem to be having 616 fighter jets, out of which 432 are capable and modern. What are your views on our aging fleet? And parity with India in case of a full blown war where we have to use all our assets?

IAF may be regarded at highly unbalanced......I mean they may have lot many fighters to show off, but then they do not have the corresponding number of EW / support aircraft to synergize the effects of all these assets and bring the strength of IAF on the battlefield.

Pulwama incident happened on 14 Feb, IAF went in on 26.....i mean IAF had fully 11 days to prepare the response, and prepare for PAF response as well....one wonders what they were doing for all these 11 days.

I have a question guys?

What is the active fleet of fighter jets in PAF?

On wikipedia it says that we have: (Unreliable source I know)

69 Mirage 5s (Introduced: 1968) - 54 Years old
56 Mirage 3s (Introduced: 1961) - 61 Years old
54 J7s (Introduced: 1959) - 63 Years old
134 JF17 (Introduced: 2007) - 15 Years old
75 F16 (Introduced:1978) - 44 Years old

This adds up to 388. Is there a particular number PAF wants to maintain?
Our fleet looks very old! 69+56+54 = 179 of these jets are ancient. I know there have been some upgrades. But I think 4/5 platforms can't even fire a sidewinder because they don't have helmet mounted displays.(JF B3 will have it I know) Which basically means in a dogfight they are screwed! Plus such old planes can't be great with BVRs either, at that time there were no BVRs, they have narrow nose cones, small radars, less and old sensors. So what we have is some 200 odd F16s and JFs that are somewhat modern. Minus block 1s and block 15s and you might be looking at a number less than 100. Haven't we lost track completely? Considering India's steady acquisitions. We don't have much to pitch against very decent Mirage 2000s, MiG29s, SU30s and now Rafales.

We won't have any parity with Indian fleet if it wasn't for our hand full Block 52s. They seem to be having 616 fighter jets, out of which 432 are capable and modern. What are your views on our aging fleet? And parity with India in case of a full blown war where we have to use all our assets?

It was, and it never will be, a matter of numbers (ranges, quantity etc). One thing which NO ONE can quantify here is the pilot training and expertise.....the one thing which MATTERS THE MOST.

If it were the game of numbers, the outcome of battles in the military history would have been entirely different.

 

[TheSolution]

Yes. It has been calculated, and then at every level, everyone is responsible to maintain that minimum number. Same goes for army as well.

IAF may be regarded at highly unbalanced......I mean they may have lot many fighters to show off, but then they do not have the corresponding number of EW / support aircraft to synergize the effects of all these assets and bring the strength of IAF on the battlefield.

Pulwama incident happened on 14 Feb, IAF went in on 26.....i mean IAF had fully 11 days to prepare the response, and prepare for PAF response as well....one wonders what they were doing for all these 11 days.

It was, and it never will be, a matter of numbers (ranges, quantity etc). One thing which NO ONE can quantify here is the pilot training and expertise.....the one thing which MATTERS THE MOST.

If it were the game of numbers, the outcome of battles in the military history would have been entirely different.

We need to look at this from a neutral perspective.

Deciphering the ancient Vedic combat texts to teach Abhinandan how to take down an F-16 without firing a single missile is a time consuming task

 

[Big_bud]

Yes. It has been calculated, and then at every level, everyone is responsible to maintain that minimum number. Same goes for army as well.

IAF may be regarded at highly unbalanced......I mean they may have lot many fighters to show off, but then they do not have the corresponding number of EW / support aircraft to synergize the effects of all these assets and bring the strength of IAF on the battlefield.

Pulwama incident happened on 14 Feb, IAF went in on 26.....i mean IAF had fully 11 days to prepare the response, and prepare for PAF response as well....one wonders what they were doing for all these 11 days.

It was, and it never will be, a matter of numbers (ranges, quantity etc). One thing which NO ONE can quantify here is the pilot training and expertise.....the one thing which MATTERS THE MOST.

If it were the game of numbers, the outcome of battles in the military history would have been entirely different.

Pilot training is such a cliché comment. I think pilot training is becoming less and less of a difference. A 3rd gen fighter can not escape a 4.5 Gen one. Period. Ability to fire a sidewinder means they don't have to be directly at your 6 o clock. They can shoot at almost 90 degrees. Engines have come a long way, designs have improved a lot. A Mirage 5,3 or a J7 can not out turn a MiG29, Su30 or mirage 2000 by any means. Thrust makes all the difference in WVR fight. And these old jets have very low power engines. And in BVR, its basically all plane. Pilot doesn't need to do much. The plane does almost everything for you. Its more and more about technology, less about the pilot.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Pilot training is such a cliché comment. I think pilot training is becoming less and less of a difference. A 3rd gen fighter can not escape a 4.5 Gen one. Period. Ability to fire a sidewinder means they don't have to be directly at your 6 o clock. They can shoot at almost 90 degrees. Engines have come a long way, designs have improved a lot. A Mirage 5,3 or a J7 can not out turn a MiG29, Su30 or mirage 2000 by any means. Thrust makes all the difference in WVR fight. And these old jets have very low power engines. And in BVR, its basically all plane. Pilot doesn't need to do much. The plane does almost everything for you. Its more and more about technology, less about the pilot.

All this whatever you have mentioned did let down USAF / allied air forces in Vietnam War, following which they had to adopt special measures including DACT, Top Gun school, its syllabus etc.....i mean they had to pay special attention to BVR fights again. ACM had been overlooked for a long time, with disastrous consequences.

These things which you have mentioned, atleast for me, bring complacency in a pilot, sometime may force you to underestimate your weak enemy as well.

This confidence is what a weaker enemy takes advantage off....we did the same in Feb 2019, when IAF had better aircraft in all respects to us....technically we should not have gone against IAF then.

Someone also shot down an F-117 with a vintage SAM system in the late 90s.

 

[kursed]

Adding a S-400 at Adampur(probably the best place to put one as it gives both reach and depth).

PAF Is not carrying jammers or is aware of an attack - surprise hit.

The S-400 has the ability to engage both a F-16 flight at 36000ft and a Saab-2000 at the same altitude.
It is able to bring down the Saab-2000 successfully with 1 missile.
it launches 8 at the F-16s north and brings down 1.

View attachment 805490
A F-16 flight at 12000ft can be engaged at a slightly reduced distance and 1 out of 4 missiles launched will hit and kill.


Change of scenario - the PAF is aware of the threat and stays around 5000ft or below and the AEW is kept back.

PAF aircraft can operate safely all the way upto the border.

PAF flight attempts to kill the S-400 arent successful on their own - (4 ship) and for the most part only JF-17s with MAR-1s are able to hit the S-400 flying below 1000ft.

However, a PAF flight of JF-17s with MAR-1s supported by a Falcon 20 both survive and are able to destroy the S-400.

That isnt cause for celebration as it also means that this flight was at a disadvantage against IAF interceptors and other systems.

Can you run this scenario, please?

PAF acquires S-400 location via 24/7/365 surveillance and sigint (WL2s). There’s no version of this where S400 batteries would remain unknown to PAF. They’re target number one, since the day they’re accepted into ORBAT. They’d be prime target for PAF’s sigint, space and imagery surveillance.

JF-17 backed by Falcon-20, with CM-401 and MAR1 + Fatah 1 MRLS (keeps it from operating close to Pak border) via PA used against S400 and its multiple nodes.

 

[Big_bud]

All this whatever you have mentioned did let down USAF / allied air forces in Vietnam War, following which they had to adopt special measures including DACT, Top Gun school, its syllabus etc.....i mean they had to pay special attention to BVR fights again.

These things which you have mentioned, atleast for me, bring complacency in a pilot, sometime may force you to underestimate your weak enemy as well.

This confidence is what a weaker enemy takes advantage off....we did the same in Feb 2019, when IAF had better aircraft in all respects to us....technically we should not have gone against IAF then.

Someone also shot down an F-117 with a vintage SAM system in the late 90s.

How many jets did Vietnam loose in the process? This attitude & argument won't prepare us for the future. Future is of AI, drones and loyal wingmen. Yes pilots are important and no denying that. But there's no benefit in fooling ourselves either. I am sure PAF is trying to make best use of resources. But I think PAF desperately needs more fundings.

 

[PanzerKiel]

How many jets did Vietnam loose in the process?

As per wikipedia, US and its allies lost almost 12,500 aircraft (all types). North Vietnam, on the other hand lost 150 -170 aircraft.

List of aircraft losses of the Vietnam War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Over and above, losses dont define victory. Victory is attained once you achieve your mission / objective...whatever the cost (Soviets, Koreans, Vietnam etc)

This also shows the value of synergy between different arms and services. One cannot win a war just by having good aircraft.

 

[IblinI]

Future is of AI, drones and loyal wingmen

They are indeed a hot topic these days but wont be mature before 2040.

 

[Big_bud]

As per wikipedia, US and its allies lost almost 12,500 aircraft (all types). North Vietnam, on the other hand lost 150 -170 aircraft.

List of aircraft losses of the Vietnam War - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Over and above, losses dont define victory. Victory is attained once you achieve your mission / objective...whatever the cost (Soviets, Koreans, Vietnam etc)

This also shows the value of synergy between different arms and services. One cannot win a war just by having good aircraf.

Thats one way to look at it. But tell me what can Pakistan do with these F7s and Mirages which it can't do without? What if our inventory was only 200 4.5 Gens - all 20 yrs old or less. I think our defence would be way stronger with that? Because atm we don't even have 100 4Gens.

 

[PanzerKiel]

Thats one way to look at it. But tell me what can Pakistan do with these F7s and Mirages which it can't do without? What if our inventory was only 200 4.5 Gens - all 20 yrs old or less. I think our defence would be way stronger with that? Because atm we don't even have 100 4Gens.

It's an ongoing process. We have to live with it due to our different constraints....

 

[Fioril]

Thats one way to look at it. But tell me what can Pakistan do with these F7s and Mirages which it can't do without? What if our inventory was only 200 4.5 Gens - all 20 yrs old or less. I think our defence would be way stronger with that? Because atm we don't even have 100 4Gens.

Hopefully with the induction of J-10 and Blk 3 along with upgradation of older blocks ,the number will increase to 200 by 2025.

 

[Goenitz]

Pilot training is such a cliché comment. I think pilot training is becoming less and less of a difference. A 3rd gen fighter can not escape a 4.5 Gen one. Period. Ability to fire a sidewinder means they don't have to be directly at your 6 o clock. They can shoot at almost 90 degrees. Engines have come a long way, designs have improved a lot. A Mirage 5,3 or a J7 can not out turn a MiG29, Su30 or mirage 2000 by any means. Thrust makes all the difference in WVR fight. And these old jets have very low power engines. And in BVR, its basically all plane. Pilot doesn't need to do much. The plane does almost everything for you. Its more and more about technology, less about the pilot.

Your argument is valid however complexties are still there in operating the aircraft. I mean DOS were way difficult than windows today but one still need to learn new software, besides operating system.

Pilot is everything. Think of todays cars. RBI, automatic traction, CVT, etc but still, skills are required to drive the car in a race. Now imagine, driving and shooting simultaneously. The gadgets will help (automatic lock etc), but you must be skillful to be in favourable position.

Then come the synergy and network centric systems. It is more like to use information from other systems without using yours to take down the enemy. Its like clearing obstacles with blindfold, on voice cues.

Overall, old systems were cumbersome and used to perform limited actions. Todays system perform a lot of functions, easy but a lot to learn to attain mastery.

 

[Basel]

Adding a S-400 at Adampur(probably the best place to put one as it gives both reach and depth).

PAF Is not carrying jammers or is aware of an attack - surprise hit.

The S-400 has the ability to engage both a F-16 flight at 36000ft and a Saab-2000 at the same altitude.
It is able to bring down the Saab-2000 successfully with 1 missile.
it launches 8 at the F-16s north and brings down 1.

View attachment 805490
A F-16 flight at 12000ft can be engaged at a slightly reduced distance and 1 out of 4 missiles launched will hit and kill.


Change of scenario - the PAF is aware of the threat and stays around 5000ft or below and the AEW is kept back.

PAF aircraft can operate safely all the way upto the border.

PAF flight attempts to kill the S-400 arent successful on their own - (4 ship) and for the most part only JF-17s with MAR-1s are able to hit the S-400 flying below 1000ft.

However, a PAF flight of JF-17s with MAR-1s supported by a Falcon 20 both survive and are able to destroy the S-400.

That isnt cause for celebration as it also means that this flight was at a disadvantage against IAF interceptors and other systems.

How about using combination of GLCMs, MBRLs (like Fateh-1,2 etc.), drone swarms, suicide drones,. ALCMs and Standoff Munitions for SEAD mission against against Indian air defense, we can not just go after one system like S-400 as enemy have layered air defense.

 

[m52k85]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Thanks great post!
Just one question, why does that J-10 suddenly notch when it has a greater detection range? Since a notch is performed well below the max detection range, I would imagine that value wouldnt factor into ability or decision to notch.

 

[retaxis]

can't go wrong with either J-11B, J-10C or J-16D.

J-20 and J-31 are not for sale yet