PAF J-10C News, Updates and Discussion

[StructE]

Pakistan's lifline lies in that carefully planned tinkering and stop being a lapdog of anyone. Pak-China relations are now at a point similar to the Pak-US relation at the peak of the cold war. Pakistan shouldn't repeat the same mistakes. Get your house in order, have a sustainable economy, diversify your friend's list and never again put all your eggs in one basket only.

Relations remain viable even after decades if both parties see wroth in each other. Pakistan could have been South Korea and US would love to be friends with Pakistan.

 

[JawadKKhan]

Strange news.
I read on some other threads that JF17 was far enough to protect Pakistan from india....

to be seen.

Protect Pakistan from India ?? PAF is a force, which attacks india after Pakistan announced that it will respond, PAF attacks them at their highest level of air alert in broad day light... So you have to worry about india's protection not other way around.


BTW! Yes heard right, The JF-17s are the main fighter jet of PAF which will be countering the maximum of Indian air force.

Every aircraft will play its role. J-10s / F-16s will play their part.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

@CriticalThought
What you posted in the other thread kept me thinking of what if I am wrong based on whatever limited information + knowledge I have.

So lets put it through the simulation: @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @JamD in case you are interested

A flight of 4 J-10Cs with PL-15s and a flight of 4 Rafale F3Rs with Meteors.
In total the J-10Cs carry 16 PL-15s and 8 PL-10s along with KG-300 ECM pods while the Rafale's 16 Meteors and 8 MICA EMs along with 8 MICA IRs as well(SPECTRA BUILT IN)
Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Both located at 36000ft, facing each other and at 200nm out - same simulated skill level.
They both have access to their respective DLs and the side overall is capable of exploiting other sensors but no AEW in place.
This is a straight charge in with no collective offset tactics or approaches - pretty much medieval knights riding to meet each other with sensor/weapons performance what we are looking to see.

Now I cannot change what the programmers of this simulation consider their values for sensor and weapons parameters and I do feel they have assigned the radar range to the J-10C lower than what it is(closer to the JF-17 Block 3) but that is offset to an extent by the range of the PL-15.
Additionally, they also limited the J-10C to only being able to guide 1 PL-15 at a time when that is not the case in reality. It does however somewhat simulate the block-3 to an extent as well so the initial results can be taken analogous to that engagement too barring the block-3s slightly smaller RCS.
To make this engagement fair I limit the Rafale's to launch 1 weapon at each target as well.

Finally, I AM HANDS OFF - no interference.

Quick snapshot shows the detection/engagement range of the J-10(White circle at 75nm) and the weapons range in red.

View attachment 805184

The Rafale has a detection range of 140nm - so nearly twice that of the J-10C shown but then its stick is shorter.

View attachment 805187

Both flights proceed to engage keeping the same altitude and fairly same kinematics as well with the J-10C approaching the max weapons range

View attachment 805190

At exactly 74nm the J-10Cs launch their PL-15s at the Rafales who are in weapons range for the Meteor but dont launch yet.

View attachment 805193

Finally at 70NMs the Meteors are also launch and the Rafale's start to notch - the J-10Cs are still not notching!
View attachment 805194
View attachment 805195

The Meteors don't loft as much as the PL-15s but the Meteors are FASTER due to their Ramjet propulsion and get to their target FASTER!
They go active and the J-10s are finally defending.

View attachment 805196

All 4 J-10Cs are gone while the PL-15s are still in the air!
View attachment 805197



WHEN the PL-15s do arrive they hit 2 Rafale's while the others are able to dodge and get away - thus ended attempt 1 at the simulation.
Since it works as if a dice is rolled in terms of calculating everything from "pilot" responses to weapon impacts I ran it 3 more times.

#2 - J-10Cs all lost, 1 Rafale remains

#3 - J-10Cs 1 survives the first volley while 2 Rafale's survive. ONCE this J-10C survives and both flow Hot again, it launches at another Rafale to bring it down and survives a Meteor. It launches again at the second Rafale and brings it down as well.

#4. No J-10Cs survive and 1 Rafale Survives.

However, as I mentioned the issue lies with the simulated radar range for the J-10C and this result may reflect more the Block-3 rather than the J-10CPs.
so perhaps suited to the other thread but the JF-17 Block-3 isnt some antidote for the Rafale and probably more akin to a numbers equalizer to outstick the IAF.

But, I wasnt done so I manipulated the database and increased the range of the J-10Cs radar to 100nm and allowing them (and the Rafale's) to guide 2 missiles at a time.
Doing that changed the whole game entirely -

Now the J-10Cs werent only launching right at the edge of the PL-15s range but also able to notch more comfortably. The PL-15s would arrive and since they were 2 per target bring down all Rafale's
while the meteors where still 35nm away from the J-10Cs!
Even with their high speed at the weapon endgame the Meteors would at best bring down 2 J-10s in repeat after repeat of this scenario.

View attachment 805200


So - having done so I decided to put up all other assets of the PAF against the Rafale.

JF-17 Block-2 - 2 out of 4 times is unable to engage even and brought down by the Rafale - the other two tries brings down 1-2 Rafales

F-16AM with AIDEWS - Only in 1 engagement do they actually manage to evade the meteor and bring down 3 Rafales but still lose 3-4. Other cases it is 2-4 or 0-4 as well.

So, clearly the other assets of the PAF barring the JF-17 Block-3 and J-10C arent going to have it easy against the Rafale - sure, the chance of this simple straight in engagement are also nearly nil but it goes to simulate what a game changer the Rafale is for the IAF.

Why I state that is because I ran the simulation for other scenarios as well:

J-10C(100nm Radar) with /PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 4 times and in all it was 0-4 losses
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 Win 4 out of 4 times , MKI managed to bring down 1 J10C in 2 rounds.
J-10C with /PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 4 out of 4 times , UPG managed to bring down 1 J10C in 1 round.
J-10C vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Win 4 out of 4 times - No chance for Tejas they all went down for no loss to J-10C

JF-17 Block-3(simulated by J-10C with 75nm Radar) W/PL-15 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: 3 out of 4 times could not fire a single MICA and all went down
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - Win 3 out of 4 times-, MKI Won only 1 round after losing 2 of theirs.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 2 win, 1 draw(shoot each other down) and 1 lost.
JF-17 Block-3 W/PL-15 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - 4 times they all went down for no loss to Block-3

JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Evenly matched on rounds- When they win it is 4-3, when they lose it is 2-4.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 1-2 JF-17 remaining
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - 4 times it is an EVEN result with either 1 Mig-29 or JF-17 surviving - very surprising considering the MKI is a superior aircraft in paper specs.
JF-17 Block-2 W/PL-12 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - EVEN result with 2 of either aircraft remaining after winning.

F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mirage-2000H-5 with MICA: Won 3 out of 4.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Su-30MKI Mk2 with RVV-AE and R-27 - 4 rounds EVEN 2-2 with 3-4 F-16 remaining .
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Mig-29UPG armed with RVV-AE - Win 3 out of 4 with 2-3 F-16s remaining in all wins.
F-16AM with AIM-120C-5 vs Tejas Mk1 armed with Derby - Won all 4 times - but nearly lost in one round with 1 F-16 remaining.

So, just my thoughts are that at this point the PAF does have the superior stick against most of IAF's fleet except the Rafale.
Stating again that this is a VERY SIMPLE scenario.

Unfortunately we do not have the Astra to simulate so cannot see what that will do to change the engagements.

Great job - if you dont mind me asking - what did you use to run the simulation? DCS?

Just a few variables to add that are very hard to simulate:

1) Ground clutter interference
2) Active Airborne electronic jamming and interference
3) PAF and IAF (fighter based) electronic platforms
4) Integrated ops and speed to action event through AWACS management
5) Tactics to counter missiles
6) Ground based jamming
7) Ground based missile threats
8) Unit failures in man and machines and missiles
9) Pilot and group training

2-3 additional variables exist that can change the outcome of the above mentioned engagements.

 

[araz]

The air force's assumed public relations. And he even managed to fit in the JF-17!!!

Yes! You cannot say the JFT cockpit is cramped if sheiko can fit in. On a side note how the hell did he get in in the first place?

A

 

[TigerOfMysore]

There are some other means....already tried and validated.....which are available and which will be surely used for neutralization of S-400 like stuff.

I dont think people realize that PK Armed forces began war gaming S400 a while back.
First don't count on India maintaining S400 units within 100-150KM of the border. They are likely to use these units for air protection against critical military and civilian sites further inland. Their peace time placement is no guarantee of their war time placement.

Second PK Armed forces goal of pushing S400 away from the border is a foregone conclusion. Reason for that is the minute the S400 tracks it paints itself and if within range will expose itself to 4 different type of PK actions. Keep in mind we will go after the Radar and control system not the missile batteries. I wont get into the specifics of what those 4 options are, but PK has atleast 4 different options to engage the S400. I expect S400 to be more actively engaged against PK BMs for more India internal ranged targets than against PAF fighters. During war the clutter in the air along the border will make them very tricky to use effectively.

 

[araz]

It's an ongoing process. We have to live with it due to our different constraints....

Adding to your post, please look at the IAF inventory of mig21s as well. They too will suffer the same way that we will.
A

 

[GriffinsRule]

I have a question guys?

What is the active fleet of fighter jets in PAF?

On wikipedia it says that we have: (Unreliable source I know)

69 Mirage 5s (Introduced: 1968) - 54 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
56 Mirage 3s (Introduced: 1961) - 61 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
54 J7s (Introduced: 1959) - 63 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
134 JF17 (Introduced: 2007) - 15 Years old - 3.5 - 4+ Gen Jet
75 F16 (Introduced:1978) - 44 Years old - 4th gen Jet

This adds up to 388. Is there a particular number PAF wants to maintain?
Our fleet looks very old! 69+56+54 = 179 of these jets are ancient. I know there have been some upgrades. But I think 4/5 platforms can't even fire a sidewinder because they don't have helmet mounted displays.(JF B3 will have it I know) Which basically means in a dogfight they are screwed! Plus such old planes can't be great with BVRs either, at that time there were no BVRs, they have narrow nose cones, small radars, less and old sensors. So what we have is some 200 odd F16s and JFs that are somewhat modern. Minus block 1s and block 15s and you might be looking at a number less than 100. Haven't we lost track completely? Considering India's steady acquisitions. We don't have much to pitch against very decent Mirage 2000s, MiG29s, SU30s and now Rafales.

We won't have any parity with Indian fleet if it wasn't for our hand full Block 52s. They seem to be having 616 fighter jets, out of which 432 are capable and modern. What are your views on our aging fleet? And parity with India in case of a full blown war where we have to use all our assets? Shouldn't we rather go lean & mean? We should rather have 1 or 2 types of 200-250 4.5 Gen fighters? The older lot would have extremely poor availability, long down times.

Why would you minus Block 15s (MLU to same as standard as Block 52) and JF-17 Block 1 (Updated to the same standard as Block 2)?
So in essence 200 vs 450? Seems like very good odds to me and much better then historic precedents and only improving as more JF-17s slowly enter service.

 

[MastanKhan]

Relations remain viable even after decades if both parties see wroth in each other. Pakistan could have been South Korea and US would love to be friends with Pakistan.

Hi,

Pakistan would never be So Korea---.

Answer me---can the US convert pakistani mulsims to evangelical christians---no way---.

How about No Korea---americans hope one day they will.

There you have the answer.

 

[ziaulislam]

I have a question guys?

What is the active fleet of fighter jets in PAF?

On wikipedia it says that we have: (Unreliable source I know)

69 Mirage 5s (Introduced: 1968) - 54 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
56 Mirage 3s (Introduced: 1961) - 61 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
54 J7s (Introduced: 1959) - 63 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
134 JF17 (Introduced: 2007) - 15 Years old - 3.5 - 4+ Gen Jet
75 F16 (Introduced:1978) - 44 Years old - 4th gen Jet

This adds up to 388. Is there a particular number PAF wants to maintain?
Our fleet looks very old! 69+56+54 = 179 of these jets are ancient. I know there have been some upgrades. But I think 4/5 platforms can't even fire a sidewinder because they don't have helmet mounted displays.(JF B3 will have it I know) Which basically means in a dogfight they are screwed! Plus such old planes can't be great with BVRs either, at that time there were no BVRs, they have narrow nose cones, small radars, less and old sensors. So what we have is some 200 odd F16s and JFs that are somewhat modern. Minus block 1s and block 15s and you might be looking at a number less than 100. Haven't we lost track completely? Considering India's steady acquisitions. We don't have much to pitch against very decent Mirage 2000s, MiG29s, SU30s and now Rafales.

We won't have any parity with Indian fleet if it wasn't for our hand full Block 52s. They seem to be having 616 fighter jets, out of which 432 are capable and modern. What are your views on our aging fleet? And parity with India in case of a full blown war where we have to use all our assets? Shouldn't we rather go lean & mean? We should rather have 1 or 2 types of 200-250 4.5 Gen fighters? The older lot would have extremely poor availability, long down times.

All f16s, jf are 4th gen
4.5 will be AESA equippes f16/jf17
By end of this year we will have only j10,jf17,f16 and probably only ROSE II,III mirage 5(~60) = 350 aircarfts

 

[MastanKhan]

Protect Pakistan from India ?? PAF is a force, which attacks india after Pakistan announced that it will respond, PAF attacks them at their highest level of air alert in broad day light... So you have to worry about india's protection not other way around.


BTW! Yes heard right, The JF-17s are the main fighter jet of PAF which will be countering the maximum of Indian air force.

Every aircraft will play its role. J-10s / F-16s will play their part.

His question was on a different note---.

 

[JawadKKhan]

I have a question guys?

What is the active fleet of fighter jets in PAF?

On wikipedia it says that we have: (Unreliable source I know)

69 Mirage 5s (Introduced: 1968) - 54 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
56 Mirage 3s (Introduced: 1961) - 61 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
54 J7s (Introduced: 1959) - 63 Years old - 2nd - 3rd Gen Jet
134 JF17 (Introduced: 2007) - 15 Years old - 3.5 - 4+ Gen Jet
75 F16 (Introduced:1978) - 44 Years old - 4th gen Jet

This adds up to 388. Is there a particular number PAF wants to maintain?
Our fleet looks very old! 69+56+54 = 179 of these jets are ancient. I know there have been some upgrades. But I think 4/5 platforms can't even fire a sidewinder because they don't have helmet mounted displays.(JF B3 will have it I know) Which basically means in a dogfight they are screwed! Plus such old planes can't be great with BVRs either, at that time there were no BVRs, they have narrow nose cones, small radars, less and old sensors. So what we have is some 200 odd F16s and JFs that are somewhat modern. Minus block 1s and block 15s and you might be looking at a number less than 100. Haven't we lost track completely? Considering India's steady acquisitions. We don't have much to pitch against very decent Mirage 2000s, MiG29s, SU30s and now Rafales.

We won't have any parity with Indian fleet if it wasn't for our hand full Block 52s. They seem to be having 616 fighter jets, out of which 432 are capable and modern. What are your views on our aging fleet? And parity with India in case of a full blown war where we have to use all our assets? Shouldn't we rather go lean & mean? We should rather have 1 or 2 types of 200-250 4.5 Gen fighters? The older lot would have extremely poor availability, long down times.

India always had numerical superiority and that will remain same as its many times bigger country with many folds larger economy. PAF always dominated with tactics / strategy.

Having said that, 388 is a massive fleet of fighter jets. Wars not like 1 fighter aircraft to 1 fighter aircraft. How many aircrafts can be operational at a given time out of 388 and how many can be for indian 616 fighter jets ? That's a main question. In a full blown conventional war, the airbases will be the first target. How much of the airforce will survive. The tactics / situational awareness to survive the first wave is way important then anything else. So that's why potent air-defense units are perhaps more important as they protect entire base. 388 will be more then enough if most of it gets airborne. Capability wise, PAF has rapidly closed the gap with IAF. By mid-2000s india had BVR capability, AEW&C aircrafts, air-refuelers.. PAF had none of such critical capabilities. We added all these capabilities + about 140 JF-17s, 18 F-16s block 52s, some older F-16s and Now J-10s.. That's remarkable acquisitions in last decade what else you need ? PAF right now is a dream airforce for anybody who watched PAF in 2000s. So, we are at the right track.

The key elements in the air warfare are battle space situational awareness + EW. We proved our superiority in both these domains recently in 2019. We have to keep edge in these domains in future.

As far as sidewinder is concerned, ALL of PAF jets can do WVR combat with sidewinders or PL-5s. The high-offbore sight missiles with J-10s / block IIIs are a new thing.. That's same case with indian fleet, not all of their fleet has this capability.

There can be difference in number of platforms, that doesn't matter as much as if there would have been a missing capabilities like it was in the past. The strategy / tactics will determine the outcome of war. Yes technology is the key and we are adding 4 / 4.5 gen aircrafts. Remember once the scenario of modern jets was PAF 38 F-16s (without BVR ) against 200+ ( mirage 2000s, mig-29s, Su-30s) all with BVR missiles and backed by AEW&Cs. So, I completely disagree to "haven't we lost track completely" statement. We are totally on right track. The matter of concern for us is not airforce but navy which was neglected till now. PAF is doing well with right directions towards future, AZM and beyond.

 

[SQ8]

Bhai i have one question.
If IAF use its air assets and S400 at the same time, will not this cause them loose their own air assets as we saw on Feb 27.

Can S400 and HQ 9 P differentiate between friend and foe in highly contested air space with both friendly and enemy assets.

The SAMs rely on either IFF or operator discretion. Operator discretion is a combination of good training and good information - 27th February was where perhaps either the training or information or both were severely lacking and the fratricidal action occurred.

Are you able to see what happens with Pakistani SAMs added to the model?

Sure
Will do so a little later

Can you run this scenario, please?

PAF acquires S-400 location via 24/7/365 surveillance and sigint (WL2s). There’s no version of this where S400 batteries would remain unknown to PAF. They’re target number one, since the day they’re accepted into ORBAT. They’d be prime target for PAF’s sigint, space and imagery surveillance.

JF-17 backed by Falcon-20, with CM-401 and MAR1 + Fatah 1 MRLS (keeps it from operating close to Pak border) via PA used against S400 and its multiple nodes.

Will do

Thanks great post!
Just one question, why does that J-10 suddenly notch when it has a greater detection range? Since a notch is performed well below the max detection range, I would imagine that value wouldnt factor into ability or decision to notch.

The notching is to maintain a lock at the edge of the gimbal to guide the missle as much as possible before it goes active. My guess is there is a little bit of database “bias” in terms of how the Radar performance is interpreted as both the block-3 and J-10 should start notching as soon as they launch.

Great job - if you dont mind me asking - what did you use to run the simulation? DCS?

Just a few variables to add that are very hard to simulate:

1) Ground clutter interference
2) Active Airborne electronic jamming and interference
3) PAF and IAF (fighter based) electronic platforms
4) Integrated ops and speed to action event through AWACS management
5) Tactics to counter missiles
6) Ground based jamming
7) Ground based missile threats
8) Unit failures in man and machines and missiles
9) Pilot and group training

2-3 additional variables exist that can change the outcome of the above mentioned engagements.

They are all there - this is Command

 

[IblinI]

A side note to this. At one point in history, the Japanese, and then the Korean products, commercial or military, were considered nothing but junk. Fast forward few decades and see what the world thinks of their products now. Same logic applies to the Chinese now, especially to their military hardware, that is increasingly of very high caliber and quality, and it can only get better with time. BhaRATs can disparage them at their own peril, and it works to our advantage.

This is the essential first step from becoming industrialized, and now we are moving up the tech tree fast, we are all grateful that our previous leadership made such a decision instead of going for the so called service sector like our Indian neighbor.

We are making two fifth gen jets,hypersonic weapons, EMALS carrier, stealth bombers in this decade and sixth gen fighter, space weapons in the next, people can laugh and hit that keyboard hard as we continue to advance.

 

[Akatosh]

Very interesting excerpt from the reputed Defense News website (read entire excerpt):

Royal United Services Institute airspace analyst Justin Bronk said the J-10C will significantly boost Pakistan’s air power.

“The J-10C is a potent modern multirole light fighter, which represents a rough Chinese equivalent to a modern F-16 Block 60/70,″ he said.
However, he noted, it’s not quite on a par with the Rafale.

“The AESA radar and access to the long-ranged PL-15 air-to-air missile make it a potentially serious long-range threat to non-stealth aircraft, although it might still struggle as a counter to India’s Rafale at long ranges. The latter’s superior kinematic performance and access to the Meteor missile [provide] a decent counter to the PL-15,″ Bronk said. “The J-10C is also unlikely to be able to match the Rafale for electronic warfare capabilities.”

Pakistan confirms Chinese ‘Firebird’ fighter acquisition

Pakistan has officially confirmed its long-speculated acquisition of the Chinese J-10C “Firebird” fighter, which will arrive in time to take part in the March 23 Pakistan Day parade.

www.defensenews.com

@Bilal Khan (Quwa)

 

[Akatosh]

Max Range of PL-15 is simulated at 92nm while the Meteor is at 75nm.

Sir, Max range of PL-15E has been revealed to be 145km or around 78nm in an official brochure.
Please reduce that in the simulation.