Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

[Hellfire]

You are entitled to what you wish to see ......... and we as usual would ask for concrete proofs, without proofs its all farts. The opening of the debate / talk show you posted is about Balakot ...... I would have expected more from a former NSA rather than simple plain we struck terror and fla fla fla .... but whatever suits him and his countrymen, if it was me (a common layman) I would have asked this NSA what are basis for attacking Pakistan, violating its sovereignty when the attack was done by a Kashmiri from IOK, in IOK using everything local. And I would have asked him the widows and mothers of deceased CPRF are asking for some visible proof of what you did to avenge the deaths of their loved ones ......... If your NSA is content with relying on verbal statement of your Air Chief (which neither confirmed anything if they had struck any camp) then us Pakistanis have seen it with our own eyes and we believe what our ISPR says.

By the way based on his logic Pakistan should have attacked Afghanistan some thousand times. Bombed the hell out of them.

I posted a video that outlines, broadly, what the present thought process is about. The opinion about thought process in Pakistan is summed up by this:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1102915136170455040

What do you expect Indians, those who still would prefer peace, to expect from such?

 

[VCheng]

What do you expect Indians, those who still would prefer peace, to expect from such?

There is a reason I used the term "shell games" to describe such paroxysms of "anti-terror" activities carried out periodically by Pakistan.

 

[Hellfire]

There is a reason I used the term "shell games" to describe such paroxysms of "anti-terror" activities carried out periodically by Pakistan.

Let me quote you here, to make certain points:

The response of the international community, not only USA describing Balakot as a counter-terrorism operation, but also China right down to OIC, should be an ample indicator of things to come for Pakistan.

The most pertinent give away is here. What majority in Pakistan, as also in India, are failing to realize (or intentionally ignoring) is that when PM Modi said that Pakistan stands isolated, it indeed is. The mere fact that US, UK and France, with French leading the pack, were quick to support Indian actions as a counter terrorist operation, with Russia following suit when President Putin, to quote, said "We strongly condemn this brutal crime. The perpetrators and sponsors of this attack, undoubtedly, should be duly punished.", indicated an isolation in UN for Pakistan.

The hoopla of "higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea" notwithstanding, even China was quick to insulate itself against any fallout. People here, and this is pervasive in the larger society that this forum, perhaps, represents a sample of, assumed that China will intercede on behalf of Pakistan in any potential conflict with India. I think that it is time that Pakistan realizes that the game is much bigger than what they assume or take it to be, with Pakistan being a rather convenient pawn, willingly being used, by various extra-regional nations (out of Sub-continent), in their own games. If one takes into account the wider perspective, I have often challenged this very premise of the Pakistani members here, when I have tried to indicate the very nature of any treaty that the Chinese enter into being transitory and instance specific, subject to revision as per their convenience. China remains a threat for the Russians in the longer time frame - one should make no mistake in that, and Russians are very well aware of this situation, having undertaken 'integration' of the Russian Far East precisely when China was at it's weakest, a situation that Russia finds its self almost in. And hence, India will always be the Russian hedge for that eventuality. Many commentators here have rightly paraphrased that in international relations there are no permanent friends, only permanency is of interests, but failed to appreciate this picture, in the broader context.

If we examine the OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, one can find a self serving thread running on this forum itself, where Pakistani members in droves have hailed the apparent 'snub' to India over Kashmir. Or insult, or whatever word they fancy.

But little have people made an attempt to understand that the said Kashmir Contact Group met in Riyadh and not OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, and said precisely what it has being saying for decades, with a few editions. What remains a deliberate and self deluding attempt by Pakistani members here, is the underplaying of the fact that inspite of the Indian action on 26 Jan 2019, OIC did not rescind the invite to India as a Guest of Honor, something that it could have easily done citing Pakistan as a member and the prevailing tensions being not conducive for Indian presence at the summit.

What has Pakistan achieved? I am sure many will come out here and claim a plethora of accrued benefits and cheer the fact that Kashmir was mentioned in a sub-group, not associated with the OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, at Riyadh, which failed to even make a cut in the declaration of the summit adopted.

But those who are able to read the evolution of the global scenario over the present stand off, know precisely what is happening.

I am quite certain there will not be a nuclear exchange between the two parties. Both sides are too wise to let that happen, rest assured.

It is actually a veritable entertainment to read the 'war' here and over the internet. India is not going to fight, why should it? What will it achieve?

What will indeed happen, is India will maintain the present posture and continue it indefinitely. We have not mobilised our strike corps, the troops of pivot corps are in their routine locations, on standby to initiate hostilities if the political directive comes. PAF action on 27 Feb 2019 left the option to escalate/retaliate, with India. Everytime IAF decides to have 4 to 5 aircrafts converging, one can be sure PAF will be scrambling. On ground, from what I read here, PA has shifted troops from the Western Borders. Every day that the troops remain in place, is higher operating cost (CI grid deployment is always less costly than conventional posture). And India has not even recalled troops or moved any elements of Strike Corps yet. Indian Naval forces keep themselves in North Arabian Sea.
We may strike today, we may strike 10 days from now, we may strike 100 days from now, we have the economic capacity to continue this posture for a pretty long time, without ever striking. In the meanwhile, we will keep adding a fractions Pakistan's GDP per day, while Pakistan will be forced to review it's position as the creditors come knocking.

Come June, FATF will become interesting if this standoff continues.

Damn .... don't people see?

 

[VCheng]

Damn .... don't people see?

"There are none so blind as those who will not see." - John Heywood.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

Let me quote you here, to make certain points:



The most pertinent give away is here. What majority in Pakistan, as also in India, are failing to realize (or intentionally ignoring) is that when PM Modi said that Pakistan stands isolated, it indeed is. The mere fact that US, UK and France, with French leading the pack, were quick to support Indian actions as a counter terrorist operation, with Russia following suit when President Putin, to quote, said "We strongly condemn this brutal crime. The perpetrators and sponsors of this attack, undoubtedly, should be duly punished.", indicated an isolation in UN for Pakistan.

The hoopla of "higher than the mountains and deeper than the sea" notwithstanding, even China was quick to insulate itself against any fallout. People here, and this is pervasive in the larger society that this forum, perhaps, represents a sample of, assumed that China will intercede on behalf of Pakistan in any potential conflict with India. I think that it is time that Pakistan realizes that the game is much bigger than what they assume or take it to be, with Pakistan being a rather convenient pawn, willingly being used, by various extra-regional nations (out of Sub-continent), in their own games. If one takes into account the wider perspective, I have often challenged this very premise of the Pakistani members here, when I have tried to indicate the very nature of any treaty that the Chinese enter into being transitory and instance specific, subject to revision as per their convenience. China remains a threat for the Russians in the longer time frame - one should make no mistake in that, and Russians are very well aware of this situation, having undertaken 'integration' of the Russian Far East precisely when China was at it's weakest, a situation that Russia finds its self almost in. And hence, India will always be the Russian hedge for that eventuality. Many commentators here have rightly paraphrased that in international relations there are no permanent friends, only permanency is of interests, but failed to appreciate this picture, in the broader context.

If we examine the OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, one can find a self serving thread running on this forum itself, where Pakistani members in droves have hailed the apparent 'snub' to India over Kashmir. Or insult, or whatever word they fancy.

But little have people made an attempt to understand that the said Kashmir Contact Group met in Riyadh and not OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, and said precisely what it has being saying for decades, with a few editions. What remains a deliberate and self deluding attempt by Pakistani members here, is the underplaying of the fact that inspite of the Indian action on 26 Jan 2019, OIC did not rescind the invite to India as a Guest of Honor, something that it could have easily done citing Pakistan as a member and the prevailing tensions being not conducive for Indian presence at the summit.

What has Pakistan achieved? I am sure many will come out here and claim a plethora of accrued benefits and cheer the fact that Kashmir was mentioned in a sub-group, not associated with the OIC meet at Abu Dhabi, at Riyadh, which failed to even make a cut in the declaration of the summit adopted.

But those who are able to read the evolution of the global scenario over the present stand off, know precisely what is happening.





It is actually a veritable entertainment to read the 'war' here and over the internet. India is not going to fight, why should it? What will it achieve?

What will indeed happen, is India will maintain the present posture and continue it indefinitely. We have not mobilised our strike corps, the troops of pivot corps are in their routine locations, on standby to initiate hostilities if the political directive comes. PAF action on 27 Feb 2019 left the option to escalate/retaliate, with India. Everytime IAF decides to have 4 to 5 aircrafts converging, one can be sure PAF will be scrambling. On ground, from what I read here, PA has shifted troops from the Western Borders. Every day that the troops remain in place, is higher operating cost (CI grid deployment is always less costly than conventional posture). And India has not even recalled troops or moved any elements of Strike Corps yet. Indian Naval forces keep themselves in North Arabian Sea.
We may strike today, we may strike 10 days from now, we may strike 100 days from now, we have the economic capacity to continue this posture for a pretty long time, without ever striking. In the meanwhile, we will keep adding a fractions Pakistan's GDP per day, while Pakistan will be forced to review it's position as the creditors come knocking.

Come June, FATF will become interesting if this standoff continues.

Damn .... don't people see?

Pakistan is isolated and China didn't say much. Instead of talking, China gave Pakistan the means and expertise to thrash and humiliate an enemy that is more than 7x bigger than us.............

PS It sounds like you are getting your info. from the same source which claimed that india killed over 300 terrorists, shot down a few F-16s

 

[Hellfire]

"There are none so blind as those who will not see." - John Heywood.

Popcorn time.

Ciao

Pakistan is isolated and China didn't say much. Instead of talking, China gave Pakistan the means and expertise to thrash and humiliate an enemy that is more than 7x bigger than us.............

PS It sounds like you are getting your info. from the same source which claimed that india killed over 300 terrorists, shot down a few F-16s

Do you have any proof of what you are saying - genuine, irrefutable, verifiable, coherent, evidence based, of claims being made by GoI or IAF of what you say above?

If not ......... suggest concentrate on your Biography, the only book that can be considered as a source by you

On a serious note: Don't waste my time with drivel.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

@Vibrio @VCheng

The worlds initial reaction to the Balakot attacks was also based on a presumption of a conventional Indian military capability and superiority that Pakistan could not possibly respond to.

Pakistan’s retaliation (and actually giving India a black eye), along with the now widely acknowledged lack of credibility of Indian claims, changed those presumptions and therefore the calculus that will govern the international response to the next Indian escalation.

With respect to acting against militant groups, that was always on the cards given the FATF threat, and those international avenues remain the only points of leverage for Pakistan to take certain actions internally. That said, the point remains that any such actions, shell games or not, would not have prevented Pulwama and will not prevent a future Pulwama.

So while Pakistan can (and should) put her house in order to avoid international sanctions, a variable in the form of the brainwashed Indian public, fed on a media diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering, led by a party that subscribes to the same, demanding military escalation against Pakistan regardless of whether Pakistan is responsible or not, remains a problem that only India can resolve.

 

[Dubious]

Where do we go from here?

WELL, that depends ..So far Pakistan seems on the right track:

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/4...escalation-in-tensions-between-india-pakistan
https://www.dawn.com/news/1468179

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/48...s-PM-Imran-decision-of-releasing-Indian-pilot

http://www.radio.gov.pk/06-03-2019/pakistan-china-reaffirm-time-tested-cooperative-partnership

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1915325/1-saudi-fm-lauds-pakistans-anti-terror-efforts-india-visit/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/4...ges-easing-tension-in-call-with-pm-imran-modi

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1921193/1-king-abdullah-lauds-pm-imrans-statesmanlike-approach/

https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/440860-germany-defence-chief-china-vice-fm-call-on-coas

https://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/20...istans-move-to-release-captured-indian-pilot/


Even some indians from Ex-Judge + http://www.newindianexpress.com/nat...-a-bigger-liar-than-narendra-mod-1945853.html

https://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/480543-Sidhu-lauds-PM-Khan-decision-release-captured-Indian-pilot

https://www.aaj.tv/2019/03/raws-ex-chief-lauds-pm-imran/

Well, I dont really need to put up international media on india

Where do we go from here? Well, honestly speaking we arent going anywhere...geopolitical as well as politically until and unless india realizes the NEED for peace is NOT a form of WEAKNESS!

I guess Modi g has not heard of the proverb: United we stand, divided we fall! No one is asking india to become a part of Pakistan, but we are only asking for a untied UNDERSTANDING OF PEACE!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

In the meanwhile, we will keep adding a fractions Pakistan's GDP per day, while Pakistan will be forced to review it's position as the creditors come knocking.

Come June, FATF will become interesting if this standoff continues.

Pakistan is not Palestine. We sustained significantly larger deployments after the Mumbai attacks, and that was while a massive terrorist wave was sweeping the country draining even more resources. The current deployments will not be the 'drain' you're expecting them to be.

Additionally, actions related to satisfying the FATF and these deployments are not mutually exclusive. The takeaways from the recent FATF review have been absorbed and policy prescriptions to address them had been put into motion long before the Pulwama attacks.

but we are only asking for a untied UNDERSTANDING OF PEACE

Which is not going to happen as long as parties like the BJP and leaders like Modi are in power, manipulating and feeding the media a diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering.

 

[Dubious]

Which is not going to happen as long as parties like the BJP and leaders like Modi are in power, manipulating and feeding the media a diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering.

Thus, india and Pakistan are not going anywhere from "here"

Need some form of a hashtag for this!

NEED for peace is NOT a form of WEAKNESS!

 

[VCheng]

So while Pakistan can (and should) put her house in order to avoid international sanctions, a variable in the form of the brainwashed Indian public, fed on a media diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering, led by a party that subscribes to the same, demanding military escalation against Pakistan regardless of whether Pakistan is responsible or not, remains a problem that only India can resolve.

You are correct in saying that there is much that India can do to help rather than hinder better relations between the two countries, but my primary focus remains Pakistan since that is where I hail from, pure and simple. As you said, Pakistan needs to get its own house in order in order to avoid sanctions, clearly.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The reason I can accept Pulwama as a matter internal to India is not just a(n intentional) mistake, as Joe describes it, or even to throw a bone to the side that has already lost this particular battle of perception in the wider context, but also that it does not matter.

The response of the international community, not only USA describing Balakot as a counter-terrorism operation, but also China right down to OIC, should be an ample indicator of things to come for Pakistan.

Whether it heeds the message or not is up to its decision making apparati, but given its past record and results delivered, there is not much reason to hope.



Reality has its own way of making itself recognized, whether any and all parties do it willingly, or unwillingly. And as @Vibrio mentioned above, washing down copious mouthfuls of popcorn with a drink of choice may be the best thing to do while such realizations sink in. And sink in they must, for reality does not care.



I am quite certain there will not be a nuclear exchange between the two parties. Both sides are too wise to let that happen, rest assured.

Please add yourself to that list of three even though it might come perilously close to convert the list to a gang

 

[El Sidd]

Need some form of a hashtag for this!

#PeaceOnWeakKnees

 

[Hellfire]

The worlds initial reaction to the Balakot attacks was also based on a presumption of a conventional Indian military capability and superiority that Pakistan could not possibly respond to.

So, in your opinion, the world's reaction was guided by the presumption of Indian Military Capability as opposed to the Economic and Diplomatic capability, taken in the exact sequence for the import?

Is that so?

Ah, things are clear now, why the National urge in Pakistan to invoke "Nuclear" into every sentence. So, how has that, Pakistan's Military Capability, brought you a windfall?

Pakistan’s retaliation (and actually giving India a black eye), along with the now widely acknowledged lack of credibility of Indian claims, changed those presumptions and therefore the calculus that will govern the international response to the next Indian escalation.

Interesting viewpoint. We will revisit this at a future time.

With respect to acting against militant groups, that was always on the cards given the FATF threat,

That, the threat, has been there for over the past year, yet today we see a sudden flurry of activity. So you mean to say, that if one was to presume that Pakistan has acted today merely because it was the effect of the International Pressure that has been brought about on Pakistan (and which saw India pause after the overt PAF action in support of a proscribed terror group), that person would be incorrect?

and those international avenues remain the only points of leverage for Pakistan to take certain actions internally. That said, the point remains that any such actions, shell games or not, would not have prevented Pulwama and will not prevent a future Pulwama.

Did I ever say that it shall prevent a future Pulwama? For that matter, we do not expect that to happen, we expect, in fact, a multiplication in number of attacks over the next few weeks, albeit on a very small scale, like the tossing of grenade at Jammu today, that will be intended to keep the 'violence' in the mainstream media yet not give it too much attention in terms of a blowback on Pakistan.

So while Pakistan can (and should) put her house in order to avoid international sanctions, a variable in the form of the brainwashed Indian public, fed on a media diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering, led by a party that subscribes to the same, demanding military escalation against Pakistan regardless of whether Pakistan is responsible or not, remains a problem that only India can resolve.

Brainwashed indeed. Hate and warmongering indeed.

Maybe you just need to relook at those words, because they certainly seem to be more apt for the threads that are proliferating on PDF itself.

I guess Modi g has not heard of the proverb: United we stand, divided we fall! No one is asking india to become a part of Pakistan, but we are only asking for a untied UNDERSTANDING OF PEACE!

Peace? Piece?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You are correct in saying that there is much that India can do to help rather than hinder better relations between the two countries, but my primary focus remains Pakistan since that is where I hail from, pure and simple.

What happens in India, India's relationship with Pakistan and her actions towards Pakistan have a significant impact on Pakistan - you can't ignore what happens in India.