Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

[VCheng]

What happens in India, India's relationship with Pakistan and her actions towards Pakistan have a significant impact on Pakistan - you can't ignore what happens in India.

Of course. But there is a difference in being reactive to what India does and being proactive in solving issues of Pakistan within its own borders: the economy above all, and social development right next to it.

 

[Hellfire]

Pakistan is not Palestine.

Would it be too much if I say that the comparison amused me? Let me rephrase it - you are not Bangladesh either?

We sustained significantly larger deployments after the Mumbai attacks, and that was while a massive terrorist wave was sweeping the country draining even more resources. The current deployments will not be the 'drain' you're expecting them to be.

I am very sure they shall not be. That is why I say - popcorn time. But have you checked with your Finance Secretary and your Civil government, which has been prepped to take a fall in case things go awry?

Additionally, actions related to satisfying the FATF and these deployments are not mutually exclusive

Nice try to change the reference. Who says that you can not sustain the deployment? We are merely keen that you create a series of supplementary allocations to the defence head under the overall Government Expenditure. I said that there must be costs exacted of Pakistani society - this is where the indirect costs will come into play. I am happy that this idea prevails, may it be the predominant and unshakable idea in Pakistan for the forseeable future.

The takeaways from the recent FATF review have been absorbed and policy prescriptions to address them had been put into motion long before the Pulwama attacks.

Example the action today?

Which is not going to happen as long as parties like the BJP and leaders like Modi are in power, manipulating and feeding the media a diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering.

The Indian citizens do not care for peace at our cost. They are ready for peace through extreme violent means if need be, and this is not the GoI I am talking of, but of the common citizen who is sick and tired of Pakistan being the source of Terror in the subcontinent.

You think PM Modi and BJP has any say left?

@Retired Troll

I think I will join you in that picture you had posted, of mushroom clouds and exclaimed of how beautiful a sight it was!

 

[VCheng]

I said that there must be costs exacted of Pakistani society - this is where the indirect costs will come into play.

They already are: nearly two thirds of the revenue is spent on debt servicing and defense, and the social indices go from worse to abysmal steadily, hampering future prospects even further.

 

[Hellfire]

They already are: nearly two thirds of the revenue is spent on debt servicing and defense, and the social indices go from worse to abysmal steadily, hampering future prospects even further.

Sir.

Bravado notwithstanding, we both have been having this conversation much prior to Pulwama, yet ...

I think I have posted enough on PDF for a week. Will simply read some brilliant pieces that still do get posted on the forum, over the next few days.

Cheers and regards.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Would it be too much if I say that the comparison amused me? Let me rephrase it - you are not Bangladesh either?

Vibrio, you can use whatever analogy you want, the point is that the 'drain on resources' you're talking about is manageable on the Pakistani side.

I am very sure they shall not be. That is why I say - popcorn time. But have you checked with your Finance Secretary and your Civil government, which has been prepped to take a fall in case things go awry?

Again, what I said about conspiracy theories. This is one where Indians (and some conspiratorial Pakistanis) are still stuck in the past, that the Army is constantly conniving to make the civilian government a scapegoat.

Nice try to change the reference. Who says that you can not sustain the deployment? We are merely keen that you create a series of supplementary allocations to the defence head under the overall Government Expenditure. I said that there must be costs exacted of Pakistani society - this is where the indirect costs will come into play. I am happy that this idea prevails, may it be the predominant and unshakable idea in Pakistan for the forseeable future.

The point is that those costs are manageable, and will likely be temporary even if cyclical. The one thing the IAF attack has done is largely silenced those who were arguing for defence budget cuts, so any 'costs exacted from Pakistani society' that you're assuming can be used as a coercive measure are simply not going to play the role you anticipate. The domestic debate and focus is largely on cutting off the drain on resources from corruption, loss making PSE's and a low tax base.

Example the action today?

If you've being paying attention to the Pakistani media, 'feelers' were already being sent out in terms of editorials and op-ed pieces and statements from government officials on the need to expand the dragnet and neutralize the 'charitable' operations of groups like the JeM and JuD after the last FATF review. Accelerating those actions after Balakot dovetails nicely with Imran Khan's commitment to act.

The Indian citizens do not care for peace at our cost. They are ready for peace through extreme violent means if need be, and this is not the GoI I am talking of, but of the common citizen who is sick and tired of Pakistan being the source of Terror in the subcontinent.

You think PM Modi and BJP has any say left?

The BJP led media manipulation and propaganda seeding hysteria and hatred towards Pakistan is a problem you have to address. As far as Pakistan is concerned, I'll just paraphrase you, "the Pakistani citizens do not care for peace at our cost or to indulge Indian fantasies and delusions of revenge. The Pakistani citizen is sick and tired of India being the source of instability in Pakistan, and will not hesitate to support any necessary military or non-military action against India as a response to Indian provocations. As I said earlier, Pakistanis have lived through a decade of fire and destruction that India has not even come close to experiencing. Indian threats and Jingoistic hysteria about 'Indian's being sick and tired' carries ZERO value over here.

 

[Maarkhoor]

Now that the predictable de-escalation is in process, the real question to ask is where do India and Pakistan go from here?

India must realize that it does not have the capability to act with impunity against its neighbor as it might want to think. Although its act of dropping munitions inside Pakistan proper does convey its intentions, it must remain wary of creating the conditions for a wider conflict with unpredictable consequences.

Pakistan must realize that its old policies may no longer work as effectively as in the past and there needs to be a serious revamping. The entire region has changed significantly and Afghanistan may no longer be regarded as their backyard, at least not exclusively. The chances of the consequences reaching directly into Pakistan from actions that would have previously gone unchallenged are now significantly higher.

Your thread reminds me this song but here in Pakistan and India situation is quite opposite, we are just alert and waiting for India either they stop (which is not going to happen until they level the score like Atlantic incident) or they launch a full offensive.....but the humiliation Modi and Indian armed forces faced they will sure thinking of leveling the score but they are afraid because this time they have only one chance and if beaten back again their dream of Chupa power will be grounded for ever so question is...Indian armed forces let Modi to destroy the dream of Chupa power for elections?

Enjoy the song...

Right this movement Pakistan is in the situation of Inspector Calahan and India is downed Man....

Harry is asking with holding a gun in his hand..... try it.....do you feel lucky punk....

 

[Arsalan 345]

Pakistan is expecting something.God know what! Bipin rawat visited forward posts in Rajasthan and told troops to get ready to face any situation and remain in contact with iaf.this looks very serious.why so many activities in Rajasthan? It means India wants to attack Karachi at all cost.i don't know why we allowed indian sub to leave our water.looks like more tense situation ahead.

 

[El Sidd]

@Retired Troll

I think I will join you in that picture you had posted, of mushroom clouds and exclaimed of how beautiful a sight it was!

sure man.

always a pleasure.

 

[VCheng]

Vibrio, you can use whatever analogy you want, the point is that the 'drain on resources' you're talking about is manageable on the Pakistani side.

Do you really think that spending nearly two-thirds of the revenue on debt and defense is sustainable for a country with over 200 million people with dire needs? Even a country the size of the USSR spent far less and still collapsed economically - with a large nuclear arsenal.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Do you really think that spending nearly two-thirds of the revenue on debt and defense is sustainable for a country with over 200 million people with dire needs? Even a country the size of the USSR spent far less and still collapsed economically - with a large nuclear arsenal.

No it's not, hence the focus on reducing waste, privatizing PSE's and increasing the tax base.

As I pointed out to you before, without addressing the underlying issues of revenue generation and waste, cutting the defence budget is only going to offer short term relief.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@Vibrio @VCheng

The worlds initial reaction to the Balakot attacks was also based on a presumption of a conventional Indian military capability and superiority that Pakistan could not possibly respond to.

Pakistan’s retaliation (and actually giving India a black eye), along with the now widely acknowledged lack of credibility of Indian claims, changed those presumptions and therefore the calculus that will govern the international response to the next Indian escalation.

With respect to acting against militant groups, that was always on the cards given the FATF threat, and those international avenues remain the only points of leverage for Pakistan to take certain actions internally. That said, the point remains that any such actions, shell games or not, would not have prevented Pulwama and will not prevent a future Pulwama.

So while Pakistan can (and should) put her house in order to avoid international sanctions, a variable in the form of the brainwashed Indian public, fed on a media diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering, led by a party that subscribes to the same, demanding military escalation against Pakistan regardless of whether Pakistan is responsible or not, remains a problem that only India can resolve.

Let us grasp reality, and let us start with the candid self-assessment that Pakistan can and should put her house in order so as to avoid international sanctions. This is a good step. It is not necessary for Indian egos to massage themselves thinking that this is due to Pakistan being browbeaten into submission; it doesn't matter what the driving impulse of the choice of moment is, but it does matter what the motivation is.

Let us likewise leave to India to sort out for herself, precisely as is being suggested, the handling of the perceived problem of a brainwashed Indian public, fed on a media diet of anti-Pakistan hysteria, hate and warmongering, and let us likewise leave to India in the abstract, the Indian electorate in the immediate reality, the problem of the party that subscribes to the same, a party and a brainwashed public that demands military action (not escalation) against Pakistan, regardless of what Pakistan considers its role to have been. By all means let India, Indians, Indian voters sort this out. I say without any attempt at triumphalism that these three, India, Indians and Indian voters have been sorting these problems out, and some far more complicated problems out, for precisely that period when our neighbours were suffering the most.

Have confidence in our good sense and our willingness to act rationally, but do not take us for granted; we hurt, too, and we think idly of getting satisfaction for that hurt, too. Not very rational, but what to do, we are like that only.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

i don't know why we allowed indian sub to leave our water.

One sub would not have made a major difference to the Indian navy, and Pakistan does not want to be seen as the aggressor.

 

[VCheng]

No it's not, hence the focus on reducing waste, privatizing PSE's and increasing the tax base.

As I pointed out to you before, without addressing the underlying issues of revenue generation and waste, cutting the defence budget is only going to offer short term relief.

Cutting the defense budget is not the answer, but the need for fundamental and deep structural reforms, as recognized by PMIK, is dire indeed. If the long term Indian calculus is to maintain the status quo and force Pakistan to continue to spend as it has been, to the point that the fundamental reforms needed are put beyond the capabilities of a corrupt and wasteful government and society, then what conclusions become inevitable?

 

[Joe Shearer]

Is it me, or is this the first intelligent discussion on India-Pakistan relations in a long, long time? Just returned from an exhausting and frustrating negotiation, so would like to address views here perhaps tomorrow. Meanwhile thank you for the scintillating discussion, read with much edification.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Let us grasp reality, and let us start with the candid self-assessment that Pakistan can and should put her house in order so as to avoid international sanctions.

Joe,

That need to 'clean house' has been under debate for over a decade now, going back to the Musharraf era. As Musharraf himself pointed out, JeM was involved in attacking the Pakistani State and plotting an assassination on Musharraf. Understand that the military recognizes the threats these kinds of groups pose to the State when they, if nothing else, plot to murder a popular Army Chief. Unfortunately, the actions Musharraf initiated were put on the back-burner due to the need to address the far more critical threat of the TTP and associated groups, and need to prevent the TTP from co-opting the Kashmir focused groups into opening yet another front domestically.

Correlation does not equal causation - the debate on what to do with these groups has been an ongoing one. For a while, if these groups were not escalating their operations across the LoC, they were considered contained. The domestic threat from the TTP/JuA is now largely under control, the TLP has been cut down to size and there is a popular Prime Minister, with the confidence of the military, in charge. The FATF threat has provided an impetus to implement policies that were drifting along, but policies that have been in the works for many years.

f the long term Indian calculus is to maintain the status quo and force Pakistan to continue to spend as it has been, to the point that the fundamental reforms needed are put beyond the capabilities of a corrupt and wasteful government and society,

The enactment and implementation of deep structural reforms is not something India can influence with the kind of cyclical escalation we've seen, nor with the escalation level we've seen - the buck stops with the Pakistani leadership and the Pakistani people on that one.