Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

[VCheng]

The enactment and implementation of deep structural reforms is not something India can influence with the kind of cyclical escalation we've seen, nor with the escalation level we've seen - the buck stops with the Pakistani leadership and the Pakistani people on that one.

You are correct in that it is up to Pakistani leadership and people to change themselves, but Indian actions do perpetuate the mental straitjacket of the all-encompassing security state that ties up all of Pakistan, does it not?

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

You are correct in that it is up to Pakistani leadership and people to change themselves, but Indian actions do perpetuate the mental straitjacket of the all-encompassing security state that ties up all of Pakistan, does it not?

No, it doesn't actually. Pakistani politicians (IK specifically) are back on track in terms of talking about domestic issues, the economy primarily. One of the headlines today, IK is threatening to dismantle the FBR and set up a new tax collection authority (I'm not commenting on the wisdom of such a move). More importantly, the Army leadership over the last several years has talked about how important economic growth is.

Within the military leadership there's a very clear understanding of the link between economic growth and continued investment in military capacity building and technological upgrades.

 

[VCheng]

No, it doesn't actually. Pakistani politicians (IK specifically) are back on track in terms of talking about domestic issues, the economy primarily. One of the headlines today, IK is threatening to dismantle the FBR and set up a new tax collection authority (I'm not commenting on the wisdom of such a move). More importantly, the Army leadership over the last several years has talked about how important economic growth is.

Within the military leadership there's a very clear understanding of the link between economic growth and continued investment in military capacity building and technological upgrades.

Let us just keep in mind that PMIK is only the last few months of a long and varied history of the entire country, and it still remains to be seen what he is able to actually deliver. Granted, he is saying the right things and is off to a good start, but the results are what matter.

The economy. The economy. The economy. And the next few years are crucial.

Results. Result. Results. Let's wait and see.

 

[Dubious]

Peace? Piece?

Not at all a good job..Consider this as a warning for your sick mindset...Get well!

 

[Hellfire]

Not at all a good job..Consider this as a warning for your sick mindset...Get well!

Have you seen the jousting that is ongoing between AM and I and I.R.A? Have you seen either of us take umbrage or offense or speak as above, a sure recipe to derail a discussion and bring down the level of discourse?

Apart from your baiting over here and exhibiting the inability to grasp a nuanced point conforming to what is termed as brevity in communication, you have merely exhibited your tendency to "warn" for an approach that challenges the narrative that you, as an individual, are trying to push as evident from your preceding posts here itself - that of a Pakistan being a peacenik. Warn indeed.

Learn to accept a contrarian view as a member on a public forum which still accepts members from other nationalities.

Go through the predomiance of the 'break India', 'promotoe secession' refrain by a plethora of Pakistani members in multiple threads on this forum itself and cite me where have you given a warning for their 'sick mindset' and told them to get well!

Before assuming the 'holier than thou approach' suggest clean your own house in this forum itself, a power you have with you.

Consider this as a suggestion for you in order to be able to carry on a discourse without derailing it by understanding the nuances.

Regards

 

[I.R.A]

Damn .... don't people see?

Exactly ........ don't people see?

My last post here,

Pakistan is fast reversing anything that provides india the ground to claim victim hood and blame Pakistan. This is happening .... whether you or any American accepts it or not, it is for our own advantage.

UK, US, France, Russia, China, Saudi Arabia ....... and even Iceland would say the same thing after such an incident. Seriously! I think people here were expecting that Pakistani state would say "Oh Praise be to ALLAH we have killed and maimed the infidels". But I guess they disappointed and condemned ..... in fact called it a terrorist attack (which I seriously disagree with).

And I am sure none of you on this thread can ever prove that whichever Jaish claimed the responsibility and how it claimed it ........ is enough to blame Pakistan and justify violation of its airspace and dropping bombs.

It's not like Jaish e Mohammad is a registered entity with copyrights and patents and no one else can use this name.

The best part for me ............ Karzais, Ghanis, Haseenaz and Solemaniz ...... were shocked. The neighborhood now understands they don't do the talking but they do the walking.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

It's not like Jaish e Mohammad is a registered entity with copyrights and patents and no one else can use this name.

I’ve read a few analysts who’ve made that argument, that there are no concrete links between the Pakistani based JEM and the Pulwama bomber. They have speculated that the links are more akin to those between ISIS and attackers in the West - they may have been radicalized by the message, but the groups ISIS/Daesh didn’t actually engage in any planning or provide tangible support.

 

[I.R.A]

I’ve read a few analysts who’ve made that argument, that there are no concrete links between the Pakistani based JEM and the Pulwama bomber. They have speculated that the links are more akin to those between ISIS and attackers in the West - they may have been radicalized by the message, but the groups ISIS/Daesh didn’t actually engage in any planning or provide tangible support.

I have been trying to tell this to indian members here, okay it was Masood Azhar who started Jaish e Mohammad, but that was before the advent of war on terror, during that time the max they would do is train young unemployed teenagers and send them to IOK ...... but then war on terror happened, that war not only brought use of new military hardware it also helped the insurgents, militants and terrorists acquire and use new techniques. In the fog of that war who has done what and by which means ...... its hard to prove, everyone was enjoying the covert face, all it took was just say "ISIS claimed", "TTP claimed", "That Jaish claimed" and so on many groups formed, many off shoots appeared (e.g. just take TTP, there is that Ahrar, This Ahrar, Sajna group, Mehsud group, Khurasani, and what not) ..... and Pakistan was the only nation and country that was getting blamed as a nation. Like that was in, a fashion ..... just name Pakistan and it was considered enough as a proof.

These groups are now multinational, and Masood Azhar is not some Prophet of this group that cannot be replaced by any other national ...... the original JeM I think never did a suicide attack, this one did, Pakistan now has a honest man at helms of its affairs, serious enough, internationally well known ... so mere blaming us didn't work this time.

 

[Hellfire]

Exactly ........ don't people see?

My last post here,

Pakistan is fast reversing anything that provides india the ground to claim victim hood and blame Pakistan. This is happening .... whether you or any American accepts it or not, it is for our own advantage.

My Dear @I.R.A

At the outset, let me make it clear that you and AM are responded to and replied to, because I know you both have the maturity and the intellectual ability to understand a contrarian viewpoint, put forth your views and yet defend your nation's position as easily as if it were a child's play. Since that remains my view of you, I do take the time to put forth my views of what I feel and what I see and read, both as a citizen of India and dispassionately as a veteran who has had first hand knowledge, knowing that on the other side remains a member whose ability to understand is far above than what an overwhelming majority here will ever achieve.

It is, somehow, same with even VCheng who may agree with me in broad terms because I have got to know him over the period of time as a person willing to take the proverbial bull by the horns in our off forum discussions, yet defending his nation's position vehemently when needed to, against baseless allegations/slur on honour. I have a good tag time with him as like him, I also understand that knee jerk pronouncements and expectations are not to be made a norm and sometimes, wait and watch is the best way to go forward.

You may have noticed that I have not replied, at times, to points raised by your or even AM, for that matter, just prior to this post. That is not because I am ignoring, but because, I understand the views put forth by you and him, and although I may not agree with them, I respect them as being views held by you, which have a rationale perfectly normal if I am in your shoes. And they deserve to be said.

I write this here because I certainly know that I get a wide berth to say things at times, that may not necessarily appeal to the majority of Pakistani members. And where things have a potential to create a bad blood, the moderators have done an excellent job of nipping the bud.


As for the rest of your post which I have not quoted, I assure you that I understand what you say. The pause we see, the ratcheting down of the rhetoric and the tensions (leave aside the sound bytes on media which are for the public consumption and the business of shoveling garbage as media entertainment) is merely because those who matter on either side, have decided to work together on this one for one last time, and the point that you & AM make, of PM IK being keen and having the military's backing to act, is to be given a definite time to fructify. The urgency in the past two days, of clamping down and today's news in Dawn of Hafiz Saeed being disallowed permission to preach and lead prayers at Jamia Masjid Qadsia, point towards it quite clearly.

Regards

 

[I.R.A]

Dear @Vibrio

I just got the chance to read the responses that were posted in my absence.

The interesting bit in your post is "exacting the price from Pakistani society of sustained deployment at borders". I don't know if this has ever occurred to you that major chunk of Pakistani economy is undocumented, Pakistan saw war in its cities and Pakistanis somehow didn't economically / financially collapse, during that war on terror a real estate billionaire emerged "Malik Riaz" ..... I call our insensitivity a blessing, others call it resilience. It is very recent that right small steps were taken to force people into tax network, it was NS's government that started it. I will leave it you whether you believe this or not ........ but many of the ordinary looking Pakistanis are way above your middle class when it comes to wealth ...... the only part is its undisclosed .... not documented and evades the state's tax apparatus ........ and when it comes to national interest I am sure you don't always generate the funds the white collar way ........ it is interesting to hear about how Pakistan got its bomb.

And please do that, it provides us the opportunity to exploit these people and bring them into tax network, without taking blame for anything (Patriotism is such a tool). Like your recent actions have made it very easy for Pakistani state to tackle the otherwise difficult challenge. Right now whatever this government does will be supported by public. Don't you wonder where the heck has that Rizvi vanished with all his ridiculous stupid media statements.

AM has rightly pointed out that crackdown on these organisations had already started since Musharraf era, his then interior minister Moin ud Din Haider is on record reiterating it again recently.

And COAS's yesterday's statement "It is the State of Pakistan that has the right to use power and no one else" means something.

Going forward it is upto indian side how they wish to deal with us, we are not going anywhere, and there is very little left in indian bag of options to teach us a lesson ...... if you are major economy ....... we too share the same resources and can generate much influence and lock other's interests ... with right policies. Tick Tick Tick clock will keep ticking and I have full confidence in our current government .....

 

[Dubious]

contrarian view

THAT def wasnt 1!

nuances

Did you learn a new word by any chance?

Let me be clear....Kindly stop derailing the thread...

 

[El Sidd]

During the Cold War, if USA launched a nuke-loaded missile, Soviet satellites would inform the Soviet army in 3 seconds and in less than 45 seconds Soviet counter-missiles would be on their way.

A recent study commissioned by US department of Defense did a simulation of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.

*This is what the simulation predicted :*

The Pakistan army decides to launch a nuke-missile towards India. They don't need any permission from their government, and promptly order the countdowns. Indian technology is highly advanced. In less than 8 seconds,

Indian army detects the Pak countdown and decides to launch a missile in retribution. But they need permission from the Government of India. They submit their request to the Indian President. The President forwards it to the Cabinet.

The Prime Minister calls an emergency Lok Sabha session. The LS meets, but due to several walkouts and severe protests by the opposition, it gets adjourned indefinitely. The President asks for a quick decision. In the meantime, the Pak missile failed to take off due to technical failure. Their attempts for a relaunch are still on.

Just then the Indian ruling party is reduced to a minority because a party that was giving outside support withdraws it. The President asks the PM to prove his majority within a week.

As the ruling party fails to win the confidence vote, a caretaker government is installed. The caretaker PM decides to permit the armed forces to launch a nuclear missile.

But the Election Commission says that a caretaker government can not take such a decision because elections are at hand. A

Public Interest Litigation is filed in the Supreme Court alleging misuse of power by the Election Commission. The Supreme Court comes to the rescue of the PM, and says the acting PM is authorized to take this decision in view of the emergency facing the nation.

Just then one of the Pak missiles successfully took off, but it fell 367 miles away from the target, on its own government building at 11.00AM.

Fortunately there were no casualties as no employee had reached the office that early. In any case, the nuclear core of the missile had detached somewhere in flight.

The Pakistan army is now trying to get better technologies from China and USA. The Indian Government, taking no chances, decides to launch a nuclear missile of its own, after convening an all-party meeting. This time all the parties agree. Its three months since the army had sought permission. But as preparations begin, "pro-humanity", "anti-nuclear" activists come out against the Government's decision. Human chains are formed and Rasta rokos organised.

In California and Washington endless e-mails are sent to Indians condemning the government and mentioning "Please forward it to as many Indians as possible". On the Pakistan side, the missiles kept malfunctioning. Some missiles deviate from target due to technical failures or high-speed wind blowing over Rajasthan. Many of them land in the Indian Ocean killing some fish.

A missile (smuggled from USA) is pressed into service. Since the Pakistan army is unable to understand its software, it hits it original destination : Russia.

Russians successfully intercepts the missile and in retaliation launches a nuclear missile towards Islamabad. The missile hits the target and creates havoc.

Pakistan cries for help. India expresses deep regrets for what has happened and sends in a million dollars worth of Parle-G biscuits.

*Thus, India never gets to launch the missile. Pakistan never gets it right. And we live happily ever after !!!!*

Will you stop crying and talk peace and sense?

 

[Arsalan]

Media can try, but that is about all. The people are not as gullible as one might think.

YES!
Try they do. So the material we see on media is actually their attempt to please the audience, that is, they are doing what they think people will like. This is what i was saying.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

@thesolar65

I've deleted your post because, couched in the humor, it presents Pakistan and Pakistanis as bumbling idiots while essentially praising India's 'democratic credentials' and highlighting how 'messy' a parliamentary democracy with functioning institutions can be. Not really balanced satire, and given recent events, the 'bumbling idiots' part is pretty far off, don't you think?

And COAS's yesterday's statement "It is the State of Pakistan that has the right to use power and no one else" means something.

That is very important, and it's not the first time that principle has been articulated.

 

[VCheng]

The pause we see, the ratcheting down of the rhetoric and the tensions (leave aside the sound bytes on media which are for the public consumption and the business of shoveling garbage as media entertainment) is merely because those who matter on either side, have decided to work together on this one for one last time, and the point that you & AM make, of PM IK being keen and having the military's backing to act, is to be given a definite time to fructify. The urgency in the past two days, of clamping down and today's news in Dawn of Hafiz Saeed being disallowed permission to preach and lead prayers at Jamia Masjid Qadsia, point towards it quite clearly.

And that, @Arsalan is the way forward for both countries, no matter what media on both sides of the border say. As I have said from the beginning, there will be no wider war, and both sides are too wise to let things get out of hand. I know I am right, despite the howling of the warhounds of all persuasions.