Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

[Beast]

As I expected Gambit, the Chinese here have learned almost nothing from Russias debacle. Humiliation awaits them in Taiwan.

These are the same rubes that have peddled lies about the Chinese military needing no training or experience in warfare for the last 8 years I’ve been on this forum. Those assertions have been thoroughly crushed in Ukraine.

If the PLA leadership are as clueless as the Russians they WILL be humiliated.

The real clueless is you. Can't even Taliban caveman and no balls to retaliate against Iran when they humiliate. Reply again when US really show some small victory.

We have a guy here who said his cousin is Taiwanese and this cousin said Taiwanese do not want to fight. So we should see Taiwan surrender sometime this yr.

Indeed. These Taiwanese young boys are tough in words but coward in real action. When PLA paratrooper landed on Taipei and these Taiwanese boys will kneel and cried.

“人民解放军万岁！” and I am not joking.

 

[jhungary]

You speak Chinese, right? You should know the true color of Taiwan people. When Taiwan was under Japan Empire rule, A Japanese governor(后藤新平) described Taiwanese as "greedy for money and power, cowardly", All street interviews in Taiwan showed most Taiwanese don't have courage to fight a war. The youngers are reluctant to serve in army for 1 year.

All talks about how Taiwan will resist in this thread are nosense for me.


View attachment 829266

First of all, it's one thing to mobilise for a far away war that have nothing to do with you, another thing when someone invade your homeland and try to take everything from you. If you have met my Ukrainian ex, she would have told you the same thing, that Most Ukrainian are lazy, corrupted and only look at money (Including her actually). But when they were invaded, that's another story.

Secondly, you are quoting Goto word in late 1800. that's more than 100 years ago, a lot has changed since then, it's like Sir Michael Seymour report back to UK Parliament that Qing Dynasty are "Bunch of Drug addicts and extremely corrupted people that are not willing to fight" after the first Opium war, does that mean it still true in 2022?

As I said, it depends on how much Taiwan want to be Taiwan, you can have a wild guess as to how much they will not fight you and welcome you as a liberator, Putin did the same thing and made a big mistake is all I can tell you. I don't know enough Taiwanese to know how they see themselves.

We have a guy here who said his cousin is Taiwanese and this cousin said Taiwanese do not want to fight. So we should see Taiwan surrender sometime this yr.

lol

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Without a modern airpower doctrine, the J-20 is worthless.

Meh. Chinese AWACs make American AWACs look like a joke. Chinese KJ-2000 AWACs have AESA radar.

China was hoping for a quick defeat of Ukraine so China can use Ukraine as a model to find ways to defeat Taiwan. But that is not possible anymore. Everything you listed can be done by Taiwan in a couple yrs, whereas, China starting from zero will take at least double that time to plan for the invasion.

Ukraine is Russia's playground. It lasts decades.

 

[kankan326]

First of all, it's one thing to mobilise for a far away war that have nothing to do with you, another thing when someone invade your homeland and try to take everything from you. If you have met my Ukrainian ex, she would have told you the same thing, that Most Ukrainian are lazy, corrupted and only look at money (Including her actually). But when they were invaded, that's another story.

Secondly, you are quoting Goto word in late 1800. that's more than 100 years ago, a lot has changed since then, it's like Sir Michael Seymour report back to UK Parliament that Qing Dynasty are "Bunch of Drug addicts and extremely corrupted people that are not willing to fight" after the first Opium war, does that mean it still true in 2022?

As I said, it depends on how much Taiwan want to be Taiwan, you can have a wild guess as to how much they will not fight you and welcome you as a liberator, Putin did the same thing and made a big mistake is all I can tell you. I don't know enough Taiwanese to know how they see themselves.


lol

Ukrainians are very different from Taiwanese. 1,Ukrainians have martial spirit. Which you can never see from Taiwanese. I heard Ukrainian soldiers always performed best in NATO millitary drills. 2,Ukrainians hates Russians. Which is something in their DNA. Taiwanese and mainland Chinese may have some issues. But they don't hate mainland Chinese.

I also said today's Taiwanese are reluctant to join in army.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

China has 10 times the firepower of Russia. Taiwan is far smaller and weaker than Ukraine. This is a no brainer.

@gambit @F-22Raptor

 

[chinasun]

China will take back Taiwan in the Hong Kong model, so there is no need to occupy Taiwan. The United Nations recognizes Taiwan as Chinese territory. China's economy is 10 times the size of Russia. China is very close to Taiwan, anti-aircraft missiles can hit Taiwan's aircraft, we have the largest number of drones in the world, AI robots. The downside is that China has fewer nuclear weapons than Russia, and we will make up for it soon. It will be no harder than Ukraine to recapture Taiwan. Of course, there will be sanctions, and China will also oppose sanctions. China can produce 90% of its own products. China does not use US dollars. Is the US dollar still the world currency?

 

[waz]

People were saying the same when Ukraine was attacked that China will come to Russia rescue. Did it come in any way ? NO. A broken Russia with no good economy will watch it from a distance.

Which people? Very few believed that. The Russian adventure was nuts going into Western Ukraine. The Chinese rightfully stayed afar.

 

[Luosifen]

I have a few relatives living on Taiwan too, they have no desire to fight for the people pushing Taiwan independence (which would actually violate the very constitution the government was founded on).

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

People were saying the same when Ukraine was attacked that China will come to Russia rescue. Did it come in any way ? NO. A broken Russia with no good economy will watch it from a distance.

If NATO attacKs Russia, there is no absolute quarantee China will not intervene.

In the past Russia and China are involved in full scale war exercise e.g. Vostok 2018 exercise. The US and NATO were watching with much concern then.

That is why Poland which agreed to US proposal to provide its S.U. era warplanes e.g. MiG-29 (in exchange for brand new F-16) to Ukraine refused to hand them directly to Kiev. She knew it was a US trick to involve Poland and NATO.

Poland a member of NATO understands the US games and its consequences very well and instead offers to deliver them to USAF base in Germany.
Biden's USA is afraid to confront Russia militarily and head on.

The US immediately refused. We all know why?

Chinese named these move as Tai Chi.

Right now it is just a limited special military operation ordered by President Putin.

The encirclement of Western cities was to tie down Ukrainan Forces so that Russia and the militias of the breakaway Provinces can encircled and then destroyed the Joint Ukrainian and AZOV neo-Nazi battalion to the East.

That is why all these talks of braveries of Ukrainians in Kiev and other Western cities are made believe as the Russian army are under strict orders. Encirclement - Yes. Hence they are easy tarhlget with their APC and tanks parked along the road leading to these cities.

No! The main battles were in Dombass and Eastern Ukraine but Western News Reporters were focusing their reports on Kiev. And mainly fake news.

If Russia is losing the war then why is Zalensky making those offers e.g. Russia right to veto any Ukraine decision on foreign military base, to change their constitution not to join NATO, neutrality, etc.

Russia negotiators have NOT agreed as they knew it was the tricks of the AZOV ultra-extremists, the real power behind this actor Zalensky to gain a ceasefire as a relief to regroup. Why didn't AZOV allowed the civilian in Mariupol to leave. Simple. To be used as human shield.

We will leave China strategy on Taiwan in a different thread.

It will be very high tech and brilliant. The question is: Is the USA prepared to risk everything to fight in China backyard?
China spend the last 30 years planning all this.
To reunify Taiwan, as President Xi always said. He prefers it to be peaceful. All the dynasties in China went thru the same routine coming to Taiwan in history.

China knows she must defeat the US absolutely. She is restrained and patient and time is running out for the US and Taiwan secessionists.

Since 1949 the US has interfere in China civil war by blocking Mao army from crossing the Taiwan straits.
No more today. China can in fact win this war without firing a single bullet.
That is the brilliance of President Xi.

Another thing Aussie RAN warships will be sink before they can even crossed the SCS.

 

[retaxis]

China is simply playing the demographic waiting game. Waiting for America to become non white majority in 2042 when they will become like Brazil and focus completely on internal issues between radical left vs right

 

[The Lost Brother]

Right now it is just a limited special military operation ordered by President Putin.

Oh Please. I stopped reading after that. It is a full fledged war. Ukraine is totally destroyed and you are calling it a limited special operation. I also have my tilt towards Russia as it is a friendly Nation but truth be spoken. They messed it big time and showed their weakness to its adversaries. Before that everyone was under the illusion that it is a same red beer who was ruthless but the way they have fought is beyond pathetic. There clearly lies the difference between Russian, Chinese and NATO level of training. We have to accept they have the will and are specially trained.

Nuclear bomb is a deterrent and can be used by any of the nuclear power but it is going to have its repercussions as well so forget it.

 

[Han Patriot]

As if YOU would join the PLA to 'liberate' Taiwan...

You probably would get seasick just watching the water in the bathtub, let alone being inside an amphib crossing the strait.

Without a modern airpower doctrine, the J-20 is worthless.

With all talk and no action, F22s are also useless. Ukraine is waiting.......

 

[Han Patriot]

I have a few relatives living on Taiwan too, they have no desire to fight for the people pushing Taiwan independence (which would actually violate the very constitution the government was founded on).

I know them inside out, one of my relatives is in the air force, he told me, when war comes, most ROC soldiers will desert. And if PRC gives asylum and migration to mainland, you will see them scrambling like rats, the DPP types would opt for Japan or US, those who stay back are numbs numbs.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Oh Please. I stopped reading after that. It is a full fledged war. Ukraine is totally destroyed and you are calling it a limited special operation. I also have my tilt towards Russia as it is a friendly Nation but truth be spoken. They messed it big time and showed their weakness to its adversaries. Before that everyone was under the illusion that it is a same red beer who was ruthless but the way they have fought is beyond pathetic. There clearly lies the difference between Russian, Chinese and NATO level of training. We have to accept they have the will and are specially trained.

Nuclear bomb is a deterrent and can be used by any of the nuclear power but it is going to have its repercussions as well so forget it.

You are indeed lost.

One can even called it a civil war based on the intense battles between the Joint Ukrainian Army + AZOV ultra extremist battaluon and the local. Militias in the East Provinces. The Russia were not in the real fight but assisted the militia with the shelling and aerial attacks.

If it is a full fledge war as you claimed then why didn't Russia Army just marched in and destroyed Kiev and decimated the entire Ukrainian Army instead of encircling the Western cities in Ukriane?

I am indeed surprised that they are so restrained.

The Russia soldiers are probably frustrated that they are fighting with one hand behind their back as ordered.

Don't worried.

Wait till the Russia unleashed the Syrian Mercenaries (like what US did in Syria using the ISIS) who does not play by the same rules as regular army and then we see soon real catastrophic events unfurling. Zalensky have limited time left.

Back in Melbourne, after a joint Naval exercise, the Australians were curious as to how good is the PLA. So they organised a competition there.
They were so disappointed with the result.
The PLAN marine got both the 1st and 2nd ranking. Then where were the USN SEAL, SAS, etc.

A hint: The USN SEAL came in 2nd last.

So much for the myth about superior Western Military training.

 

[jhungary]

Ukrainians are very different from Taiwanese. 1,Ukrainians have martial spirit. Which you can never see from Taiwanese. I heard Ukrainian soldiers always performed best in NATO millitary drills. 2,Ukrainians hates Russians. Which is something in their DNA. Taiwanese and mainland Chinese may have some issues. But they don't hate mainland Chinese.

I also said today's Taiwanese are reluctant to join in army.

As I said, I don't know enough Taiwanese to tell you either way.

But I do know enough Ukrainian to tell you they are not what you think, well, at least before this war anyway.