Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

[gambit]

Let's see how long F-16 can last against J-20. My guess is not very long.

Without a modern airpower doctrine, the J-20 is worthless.

 

[kingQamaR]

I’m not pro Taiwan just I’m they could do

 

[gambit]

Taiwan should acquire enough anti-ship missiles to sink the entire Chinese navy twice. Build up reinforced concrete bunkers at every corner of potential amphibious landing spots just like the Germans did in France with the wall of the Atlantic in ww2. Acquire shoulder fired anti-armour, anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons by the hundreds of thousands. When the time comes, there is guarantee there will be the possibility of re-supply by the US navy in case of a naval blockade. Most likely, they will organize a massive airborne deployment on a scale never seen before, attempting to seize key infrastructure after targeting them with ballistic and cruise missiles. There needs to be thousands of anti-aircraft batteries just like in ww2, to overwhelm the airborne troops with bullets and deny them any remote chance at landing their feet on the ground. This will require huge ammunition stock which must be protected at all cost in deep underground bunkers.

China was hoping for a quick defeat of Ukraine so China can use Ukraine as a model to find ways to defeat Taiwan. But that is not possible anymore. Everything you listed can be done by Taiwan in a couple yrs, whereas, China starting from zero will take at least double that time to plan for the invasion.

 

[The Lost Brother]

and such an alliance against China will bring the Russians in as well

People were saying the same when Ukraine was attacked that China will come to Russia rescue. Did it come in any way ? NO. A broken Russia with no good economy will watch it from a distance.

 

[northeast]

China was hoping for a quick defeat of Ukraine so China can use Ukraine as a model to find ways to defeat Taiwan. But that is not possible anymore. Everything you listed can be done by Taiwan in a couple yrs, whereas, China starting from zero will take at least double that time to plan for the invasion.

The fact is Ukraine is not china's business and we don't really care,and china is not russia. You are just imagine what chinese would think in your little brain.

 

[The Lost Brother]

Of course, but the majority of the world adhere to the "one China" policy, including good ol' Uncle Sam.

Is this the reason why Russia put Taiwan in the list of unfriendly countries ? How does it make one China when ROC is friendly and Taiwan is an enemy nation. Think about it.

 

[jhungary]

The biggest take away from the War in Ukraine is "THE WILL TO FIGHT". That trump basically everything. If you don't have the will to fight, you don't even need to go down to logistic or strategy level, because you will lose before the war even started.

So basically, it all come down to how Taiwan see themselves, will they not resist for being a Mainland Chinese? Or will they fight to keep being Taiwanese? Because if they do, then no matter how much Chinese combat power put into Taiwan, it wouldn't change the fact that they will fight you til the last bullet and last gun, even if that mean they China is going to occupy the land for 20 or 30 years. It also largely depends on the command and control level, if Tsai done a Ghani, then it didn't really quite matter if you have a top of the line military, it wouldn't do much if the commander in chief turn tail and run.

At the end of the day, ask yourself this question

"Would China want Taiwan more than Taiwan want to stay Taiwan" If the answer is yes, then we can start talking about Logistic and Strategy, if the answer is no, then this is quite simple.

As we said in the Military, "Invading a country is easy, occupying one is not"

 

[kingQamaR]

China was hoping for a quick defeat of Ukraine so China can use Ukraine as a model to find ways to defeat Taiwan. But that is not possible anymore. Everything you listed can be done by Taiwan in a couple yrs, whereas, China starting from zero will take at least double that time to plan for the invasion.

.....the Ukraine/Russia conflict was expected to be one sided.....turned out the total opposite!

If China invaded Taiwan their economy would tank probably worse than Russia's has. China are heavily reliant on Western commerce and if all that manufacturing were to leave they would be in serious trouble.

 

[The Lost Brother]

China would certainly succeed in taking Taiwan - but only at severe human cost and damage to its military reputation. What will REALLY be making them think twice is the scope of the sanctions being applied to Russia by the West

I don't think Sanctions will be a major concern for China but it will give China a good dent. In addition to that China has more foes than friends who will try to level the score. Ukraine has nothing much to fight other than few legacy aircraft and S 300, Javelins and Stingers were provided to them later on but Taiwan has many in its armament. Fighting a war for Taiwan is going to take China a decade or two back and that is eyeing by US and West.

 

[kingQamaR]

I don't think Sanctions will be a major concern for China but it will give China a good dent. In addition to that China has more foes than friends who will try to level the score. Ukraine has nothing much to fight other than few legacy aircraft and S 300, Javelins and Stingers were provided to them later on but Taiwan has many in its armament. Fighting a war for Taiwan is going to take China a decade or two back and that is eyeing by US and West.

China is learning from the Russia/Ukraine experience and will decide on its moves on Taiwan according to that learning experience which is yet to unfold it seems. China will also learn from Russia's mistakes. It won't make those same mistakes. Big difference.

The trouble is as was found out in Korea , they have more body's than we have ammunition

 

[IblinI]

I'll come back to this thread after taiwan comes back to the motherland.
Smile.jpg

 

[Goritoes]

Ukraine vs Russian, more like NATO vs Russia... so of course Russians will have hard time, if China invade Taiwan Americans will do whatever they can to help them, so it won't be China vs Taiwan.

 

[kankan326]

The biggest take away from the War in Ukraine is "THE WILL TO FIGHT". That trump basically everything. If you don't have the will to fight, you don't even need to go down to logistic or strategy level, because you will lose before the war even started.

So basically, it all come down to how Taiwan see themselves, will they not resist for being a Mainland Chinese? Or will they fight to keep being Taiwanese? Because if they do, then no matter how much Chinese combat power put into Taiwan, it wouldn't change the fact that they will fight you til the last bullet and last gun, even if that mean they China is going to occupy the land for 20 or 30 years. It also largely depends on the command and control level, if Tsai done a Ghani, then it didn't really quite matter if you have a top of the line military, it wouldn't do much if the commander in chief turn tail and run.

At the end of the day, ask yourself this question

"Would China want Taiwan more than Taiwan want to stay Taiwan" If the answer is yes, then we can start talking about Logistic and Strategy, if the answer is no, then this is quite simple.

As we said in the Military, "Invading a country is easy, occupying one is not"

You speak Chinese, right? You should know the true color of Taiwan people. When Taiwan was under Japan Empire rule, A Japanese governor(后藤新平) described Taiwanese as "greedy for money and power, cowardly", All street interviews in Taiwan showed most Taiwanese don't have courage to fight a war. The youngers are reluctant to serve in army for 1 year.

All talks about how Taiwan will resist in this thread are nosense for me.

 

[Beast]

Why is China not in Russia?


More like the PLA is sweating out a new higher estimate of casualties for Xi.

Why China need to? US is the BS about protecting Ukraine against Russia but everytime failed.

China never BS about invade Ukraine or assist Russia in war. Get your facts, right.

 

[gambit]

The biggest take away from the War in Ukraine is "THE WILL TO FIGHT". That trump basically everything. If you don't have the will to fight, you don't even need to go down to logistic or strategy level, because you will lose before the war even started.

So basically, it all come down to how Taiwan see themselves, will they not resist for being a Mainland Chinese? Or will they fight to keep being Taiwanese? Because if they do, then no matter how much Chinese combat power put into Taiwan, it wouldn't change the fact that they will fight you til the last bullet and last gun, even if that mean they China is going to occupy the land for 20 or 30 years. It also largely depends on the command and control level, if Tsai done a Ghani, then it didn't really quite matter if you have a top of the line military, it wouldn't do much if the commander in chief turn tail and run.

At the end of the day, ask yourself this question

"Would China want Taiwan more than Taiwan want to stay Taiwan" If the answer is yes, then we can start talking about Logistic and Strategy, if the answer is no, then this is quite simple.

As we said in the Military, "Invading a country is easy, occupying one is not"

We have a guy here who said his cousin is Taiwanese and this cousin said Taiwanese do not want to fight. So we should see Taiwan surrender sometime this yr.