LeGenD
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Chinese military advances are obvious given a handsome defense budget, exposure to GLOBAL technologies*, and extensive domestic R&D programs. Fair observation and point to make.
But American military advances ARE ALSO considerable (and continuous) given a handsome defense budget, valuable insight received from GLOBAL security commitments, and extensive domestic R&D programs. Americans neglected hypersonic munitions development - a miscalculation that allowed Russia and China to leave them behind in this particular domain but Americans are much ahead of the entire world in developing some key technologies including stealthy applications and the gap is nowhere close to being bridged by another country in similar pursuits. Americans have also started to develop hypersonic munitions and the scope of this initiative is much broader than Russian and Chinese applications.
About American military exercises:
American military exercises are typically informed by ASSUMPTIONS about what can happen in a war that might be fought with a particular opponent in a particular region at a particular point in time (Worst-Case Scenario). I will share two examples below.
Example # 1: An American military simulation that was conducted for war in Iraq before 1991 suggested that they will be able to shoot down F-117 aircraft and American military KIA will be around 30,000.
"Shortly before the allied offensive in the Persian Gulf war, the United States command anticipated that coalition casualties might run into tens of thousands killed and wounded, according to a report on the war issued by the Pentagon today.
Although the eventual toll never remotely approached that magnitude, a previously undisclosed order approved by President Bush, revealed in the report, suggested that casualties could run as high as 10 percent of ground combat troops. The order shows how seriously the Pentagon viewed the possibility that a bloody campaign might be required to oust nearly half a million Iraqi troops from Kuwait, even if a steady air campaign cut Iraq's strength in half before ground troops moved in."
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US-led forces defeated Iraqi armed forces and liberated Kuwait in 1991 with much lower losses than projections in reality.
Gulf War - Wikipedia
Then COAS Mirza Aslam Baig predicted disaster for US-led forces in Iraq in 1991 but he was proven wrong as well.
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Example # 2: RAND assessment of Russian military capability in 2016 suggested that Russian armed forces will be able to overrun much of the Baltics in a war.
As Presently Postured, NATO Cannot Successfully Defend the Territory of its Most Exposed Members
- Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants in and out of uniform playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of the Estonian and/or Latvian capitals of Tallinn and Riga, respectively, is 60 hours.
- Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad.
Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics
A series of wargames examined the threat Russia may present to the three Baltic republics. As currently postured, NATO could not defend the territory. What might be done to prevent Russia from attempting to reclaim it?
www.rand.org
Revealed: Russian Invasion Could Overrun NATO in 60 Hours
RAND came to its “unambiguous” conclusion after a series of wargames it conducted between the middle of 2014 and early 2015.
nationalinterest.org
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Russia is finding it very difficult to handle Ukraine let alone much of the Baltics in reality.
Ukraine Situation Report: Russia Begins To Withdraw Forces In The North
Russia's top negotiator in talks with Ukrainian officials said this de-escalation should not be confused for a ceasefire.
www.thedrive.com
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Emphasis mine. American military exercises are INTENTIONALLY RIGGED to SIMULATE Worst-Case Scenario of (any) war but FINDINGS do NOT suggest GAME OVER - FINDINGS are aimed to provide DIRECTIONS for war-planners about how to improve American armed forces and avoid a bad outcome in a hypothetical war of choice.
How the reports of American military exercises are received in PRESS is another matter. For example: Iranians love to tout about the outcome of American Millennium Falcon (Scenario A) exercise in their PRESS for domestic consumption but their take is SKEWED and LIMITED in reality.
What will be the situation in the late 20's and early 30's remains to be seen, therefore.
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*Chinese can buy Russian arms, study them up close, and come up with something better. Americans and Europeans also felt comfortable in terms of sharing their technologies and expertise with the Chinese on many counts for a long time. For perspective, Chinese have taken over 117 British companies by now let alone companies of value of other countries from around the world. But times are changing and Americans are now attempting to curtail technology transfers from the WEST to China. Chinese have acquired numerous technologies and created considerable knowledge base to move things forward on their own by now but they will have to shift to much higher count of homegrown solutions to meet their various needs in the future. It remains to be seen how the emerging dynamic will affect Chinese progress.
Russians have done much the same to Ukraine short of achieving complete blockade of the country due to Russian forces facing heavy resistance on the ground and unable to block Ukraine-Poland border. The results are less than convincing.
Major Ukrainian Internet Provider Triolan Suffers Severe Cyber Attacks and Infrastructure Destruction During Russian Invasion - CPO Magazine
Ukraine's major internet provider Triolan suffered two severe cyber attacks disrupting internet services in what it described as the "vile strategy of the enemy."
www.cpomagazine.com
US/NATO made it possible for Ukrainian forces to offset the impact of Russian Cyberwarfare and EW assets.
SpaceX President Says Ukraine War Opened Door to Starlink
SpaceX was already close to offering internet service in Ukraine, but Russia’s invasion accelerated the process, and it’s now offering consumer connections in a war zone.
www.bloomberg.com
Taiwan is already capable of engaging PLAN around its terrain with combination of its warships, jet fighters, and different types of cruise missiles (LACM variety). Taiwan is also developing a long-range LACM which it will use to strike at Chinese military positions in the mainland in case of war.
Chinese armed forces can take losses and degrade Taiwanese defenses out in the open but Taiwanese military infrastructure built inside the mountains will present significant challenge. IF PLAN suffers heavy losses in the exchange then China cannot achieve its fundamental objective of annexing Taiwan.
No country have fielded thousands of launchers for ballistic missiles (and cruise missiles) by the way - this is too expensive. For perspective:
Chinese IRBM launchers = 200 (count to be achieved)
Chinese MRBM launchers = 150 (count achieved)
PLAN have multiple warships but each is equipped with different types of munitions due to obvious reasons (multi-role).
PLAAF and boots on the ground will have to do the hard work in my view.
War is no longer easy to fight in some countries.
