Kashmir War: Is Beyond JKL

[imadul]

Can somebody suggest how many billions of dollars such a daring Israeli style raid and subsequent war cost

And we're the weapons are coming from to defeat India so dramatically.

China tried now and walked away

You are like 5% of China

Be realistic India has the 5th largest air force navy in the world and the 5th largest GDP and forex meaning they have means to sustain war . They have backing of Usa Israel France Japan Russia.

They have the largest professional army in the world

Its like a hyena trying to surprise a tiger hoping that his good friend the Dragon comes to aid.

Well you both tried just now and Dragon chickened out

Dont need billions of dollars, just lots of courage and commitment which PA has a plenty.
On the otherhand super power India cried all over the world and ran to US, Aus, and Japan to save the world's 5th largest army, navy, airforce, gdp or whatever you claim.
Just shows the true dirty nature of this coward country which now EVEN cant coerce Nepal and Bhutan.

 

[imadul]

Well, if we go through history of Indo Pak conflicts, we will realise that all four wars between them were a result of "surprise" hidden stabs by Pakistan.

1947 invasion of Kashmir when Kashmir acceded to India.
1965 infiltration of military to cut off Kashmir from India (ended up celebrating Indian withdrawal from Pakistani territory later, lol)
1971 attempt to bomb Indian bases in Kashmir
1999 attempt to covertly annex Kargil.

So no, Pakistan is pioneer of unpredictable stabbing in region. What happens to it at end is a different case.

Sincerely, your expectation from a class over their rage against government might be reasonable. But overexpecting unrealistic things on basis of prejudices isn't going to affect credibility of your thesis in a positive way. Guess what Kashmiris did in 1965?

Even last year, it was India who was looking for a war and Pakistani leaders were busy convincing UNSC for intervention.

AFAIK, the conventional rule which has worked everywhere is that military with higher logistics will win in case there is an obstruction less war.

Mountains of Northwest Pakistan prevented West Pakistan while East Pakistan was not that lucky and turned Bangladesh. For same reason, US sent nuclear flottila to stop India.

Same for China who couldn't move beyond a favourable terrain in 1962. PRC pulled out of most area once Indian armed forces mobilised.
They didn't have any permanent gains later. Neither in, 1967, 1971 (yes, they hit border during Bangladesh war), 1987, 2016 or 2020. India built world's biggest mountain strike forces just after 1962.

Given that gap between armed forces of India & Pakistan has only expanded since your last attempt, it's likely that India will sweep through the Pakistan.
Logistic supplies too have a role to play here. Pakistan doesn't possess to sustain a war for week.


You didn't. You just straightforward have put a burdern of assumption on Pakistani armed forces as expeditors what neither they ever did, nor they have ability to do it by miles.

Stronger forces pierce deep inside, and that's why Pakistan has made a tonnes of military databases and doctrine to deny Indian expedition of Pakistan again like 1971 (it includes nuking your own territory too). Annexxing Indian territory is a far cry.

Well really? You just again took a variable, in fact one without iota without reason

May be Pakistani establishment is smarter than you and knows logistics and numerical superiority required for expeditions (and knows that India possesses that) as well Indian government who doesn't really take Pakistan that seriously as much you are projecting.
What you think disagrees with existing instant. And that's why Pakistan is running for third party interventions.

71 is past. It was 1000 miles away and India used all sorts of terror activities working hand in hand with mukti behini terror outfit. Pakistan made political mistakes and Indi could not had done a thing without help from USSR.
Pakistan had got indi again in kargil war but Nawaz chickened out. I personally dont support kargil. Objectives and strategic depth was missing from Pak side. India over 500 kia but they would never give true figures, coffins were in shortage.
Just recently India did an air attack on feb 26, 2019. One brave Pakistani Crow was KIA. Next day PAF shot down two indi fighters including SU30.In the ensuing milieu Indi AD shotdown their own chopper.
Pakistan also returned their POW like Pak returned during Kargil as a kindly gesture but indi mentality showed true colors and didn't appreciate.
Rest assured Pakistan can take india alone.
Not like the super power India who was crying from pole to pole after galwan slap and begging US, Aus, and Japan to save her from the Dragon which was not even spitting fire. No one said this time, Ghuus ke Marein gey". Does that remind anything? Or memory totally bonkers.

But I appreciate your detailed analysis.
Only thing, india is too full of itself.
We will see!!

 

[imadul]

What program was this “thesis” for?

Liberate Kashmir.
After over 100,000 murdered by occupation forces and I want to show Pakistan Army is good enough a match for Indian myths.
Pakistan need offensive in Kashmir, jammu, Laddakh, east punjab, and to Himachal pradesh.
Rest Of the eastern border, central, south punjab and Sindh, Pakistan has to defend and hold on.

 

[The Maverick]

China brought everything they have to ladakh .
Once they saw the massive Indian build up su30mki mirage 2000 mig29
c17 globmasters apache helicopters roaring thru the Galwan valleys. They took down their bunkers and retreated.

They saw a nation which will not budget.
What chance of you your tiny in comparison in every way
You all.saw the massive Indian response .

 

[The Maverick]

Taking Kashmir by force is Impossible if the enemy is multiple times more powerful in any major factor be it money be it GDP be it technology be it military power and political diplomatic clout and friends and voice in un

On the otherhand super power India cried all over the world and ran to US, Aus, and Japan to save the world's 5th largest army, navy, airforce, gdp or whatever you claim.
Just shows the true dirty nature of this coward country which now EVEN cant coerce Nepal and Bhutan.

We amassed our northern army along himlayera and sent hundreds of fighters and helicopters to ladakh
You all saw the roar of c17 glob3masters apache helicopters su30mki and mig29nand mirsge2000 fighters

China saw the firepower at Indian disposal

Theere are no foreign troops on Indian soil .

 

[imadul]

Just two questions come to mind in terms of outcomes: the role of nuclear weapons possessed by both sides, and the role of the international community in ensuring that the planet remains safe.

(Never mind the number of casualties on both sides, military and civilian.)

Nuclear weapons are parity deterrence. India has a dubious no first use and Pakistan does not subscribe to no first use but neither country will use strategic nuclear weapons in any conflict. Equation becomes complex with Pakistan tactical Nasr tipped nukes which Pakistan developed to use against india's cold start to be used on Pakistan owen territories. I am vehemently against even that policy and use.
But world can do nothing if a country uses strategic weapons.

Pakistan is more than a match on Army strength and can hold on in air too. Navy is weak atm.
India has no chance if China and Pakistan sign a defence treaty and go to war against india together. But china wont go against India at least in an open war for obvious reasons.

 

[imadul]

Excellent write up. Clearly a lot of thought and hard work has been put into this.

Operation Focus remains the ideal preemptive strike and a blueprint to follow. However, one must also realize that one of the main reasons why the Israelis were so successful was that Egyptian airfields lacked concrete hangars for their fighter aircraft. Is this also the case with the Indian Air Force ? I highly doubt that.

Moreover, the Israeli attack was a massive all or nothing high stakes gamble. They knew the IDF couldn't defend against a coordinated Arab invasion hence they decided to strike first. Almost the entire Israeli air force participated in the strikes. A lot of damage was also done after the initial wave had hit at 7:45 am. The PAF would similarly have to allocate the bulk of its air assets for this kind of operation. It is very risky as we could end up losing half our air force if the plan doesn't work out. Furthermore, unlike Egypt, India has a formidable air defense network. So one must factor that into the equation as well.

Nevertheless, I agree with your assertion that the Pakistan Army should occupy parts of Punjab/Himachal Pradesh in addition to Kashmir to solidify its bargaining position.

War is a risky business so one must have guts to take punches.
Pak ways reacts, which shown a defeatist mindset. S400 not coming to india till end of 2021, induction and integration will take lots of time. PAF needs to improvise and also use drones. If one drone can carry one ARM and deliver the payload to destroy one RADAR system, job will be done. When you plan, avenues will show up.

 

[Fireurimagination]

Without PAF having total air dominance over Indian skies PA troops on Indian soil would be sitting ducks. Will be killed like fishes in a barrel and I don't see how PA will be able to decimate IAF, the chances of the opposite happening is quite high.

 

[imadul]

@imadul it's interesting that you mention Himachal - I always thought once and if we are able to occupy entire Kashmir we need to get Himachal as well, like you said, as bargaining chip as well as a buffer zone just like how Israel occupies the Golan Heights.

Yes, this so essentially must to occupy above and beyond JKL. Because there is no such thing to defend every inch. India may be able to take some parts in Central Punjab and upper sindh along east of Indus.

 

[waz]

China brought everything they have to ladakh .
Once they saw the massive Indian build up su30mki mirage 2000 mig29
c17 globmasters apache helicopters roaring thru the Galwan valleys. They took down their bunkers and retreated.

They saw a nation which will not budget.
What chance of you your tiny in comparison in every way
You all.saw the massive Indian response .

They outnumber(China) you massively, yet you say India put up a robust defence. Fair enough, but then you state that because of your size Pakistan wouldn’t stand a chance due to being tiny. Do you see the irony here and stupidity?

 

[The Maverick]

They outnumber(China) you massively, yet you say India put up a robust defence. Fair enough, but then you state that because of your size Pakistan wouldn’t stand a chance due to being tiny. Do you see the irony here and stupidity?

No not really Waz.

India was on the defensive not on the offensive
And China in Tibet is outnumbered and logistics supply lines are far way.
Himlayers terrain make war fighting attritional affair

Pak trying to snatch/ liberate IOK or Himachel means Pak is in offensive
But the GAP economically is 10 - 1
You have tiny logistically options
And would be outnumbered .

Realistically with what are you going to cross LOC
obtaing air dominance over IAF is near impossible by PAF
You can fight a defensive war and make it attritional but doing a offensive strike without air supremacy is suicide

 

[imadul]

Pakistan has total 8 corps, out of eight, two are Quetta and Peshawar but they can be used also on the eastern front. For Pakistan's 8 corps, india has 10 corps focused on their west, Pakistan. India wont use their eastern command on west.
PAF also can face off IAF. Yes, PN is not a match atm, but on land and in air Pakistan can beat india.

 

[waz]

No not really Waz.

India was on the defensive not on the offensive
And China in Tibet is outnumbered and logistics supply lines are far way.
Himlayers terrain make war fighting attritional affair

Pak trying to snatch/ liberate IOK or Himachel means Pak is in offensive
But the GAP economically is 10 - 1
You have tiny logistically options
And would be outnumbered .

Realistically with what are you going to cross LOC
obtaing air dominance over IAF is near impossible by PAF
You can fight a defensive war and make it attritional but doing a offensive strike without air supremacy is suicide

Right ok you meant in the offensive sense, then I would broadly agree with you. But do you think India can take Pakistani territory now?

 

[The Maverick]

Taking Pakistani territory will depend on taking out the f16 fleet period.
No offence to thunder but the beast we need to tame is the usa f16 fleet.

If a Rafale mki mig29 combo takes out f16 then yes we can take some territory.

I think your generals have planned for this scenario and may use tactical nukes

 

[Vanamali]

Without PAF having total air dominance over Indian skies PA troops on Indian soil would be sitting ducks. Will be killed like fishes in a barrel and I don't see how PA will be able to decimate IAF, the chances of the opposite happening is quite high.

Boss, do you think only you can fire your imagination... Dreaming doesn't cost... Now you don't have right to spoil other's wet or shit dreams....

Right ok you meant in the offensive sense, then I would broadly agree with you. But do you think India can take Pakistani territory now?

Honestly we can't and we dont want... If any Indian leader thinks of it, we will chuck chem out in next election... We just want entire Kashmir back not more or less and not interested in more land and don't want anyone think of our land...