Kashmir War: Is Beyond JKL

[The Maverick]

Nuclear weapons are parity deterrence. India has a dubious no first use and Pakistan does not subscribe to no first use but neither country will use strategic nuclear weapons in any conflict. Equation becomes complex with Pakistan tactical Nasr tipped nukes which Pakistan developed to use against india's cold start to be used on Pakistan owen territories. I am vehemently against even that policy and use.
But world can do nothing if a country uses strategic weapons.

Pakistan is more than a match on Army strength and can hold on in air too. Navy is weak atm.
India has no chance if China and Pakistan sign a defence treaty and go to war against india together. But china wont go against India at least in an open war for obvious reasons.

Pakistan has total 8 corps, out of eight, two are Quetta and Peshawar but they can be used also on the eastern front. For Pakistan's 8 corps, india has 10 corps focused on their west, Pakistan. India wont use their eastern command on west.
PAF also can face off IAF. Yes, PN is not a match atm, but on land and in air Pakistan can beat india.

Your weakness is your inability to sustain war your are financially broke full scale wars cost money

How much money do Pakistan have

 

[imadul]

Your weakness is your inability to sustain war your are financially broke full scale wars cost money

How much money do Pakistan have

So my friend, you are accepting Pakistan can face india and successfully take JKL, only problem is finance!!
....Pakistan will finance war expenditures same way all countries have done...to know find out how British financed WWI/WWW2.

 

[The Maverick]

So my friend, you are accepting Pakistan can face india and successfully take JKL, only problem is finance!!
....Pakistan will finance war expenditures same way all countries have done...to know find out how British financed WWI/WWW2.

OK i admit it... You can take JKL by force
Are you happy now

 

[imadul]

OK i admit it... You can take JKL by force
Are you happy now

It is not about childish euphoria but facts and potentials.
Economy is a cyclic and changing phenomenon. What's going to happen to today's stable economies of India, USA, China, EU, and Gulf region after COVID-19? Signals are negative further slide.
Growing global economies will be hit more because of dependency on global economy.
We will see.

 

[Vanamali]

It is not about childish euphoria but facts and potentials.
Economy is a cyclic and changing phenomenon. What's going to happen to today's stable economies of India, USA, China, EU, and Gulf region after COVID-19? Signals are negative further slide.
Growing global economies will be hit more because of dependency on global economy.
We will see.

You are talking about facts or your wish? If it is fact then also remember the fact that Pak tried Kargil and could achieve any thing positive for Pak...it is fact that neither Pak nor India are in position to over take other country. Let peace prevail...

 

[The Maverick]

India wants peace and status quo.

But our neighbours have their own agenda.

Pak wants Indian Kashmir
China wants ladakh.

We have to be prepared to obliterate any threat that trys to redraw our borders

The world belongs to the strong

 

[VCheng]

Nuclear weapons are parity deterrence. India has a dubious no first use and Pakistan does not subscribe to no first use but neither country will use strategic nuclear weapons in any conflict. Equation becomes complex with Pakistan tactical Nasr tipped nukes which Pakistan developed to use against india's cold start to be used on Pakistan owen territories. I am vehemently against even that policy and use.
But world can do nothing if a country uses strategic weapons.

Pakistan is more than a match on Army strength and can hold on in air too. Navy is weak atm.
India has no chance if China and Pakistan sign a defence treaty and go to war against india together. But china wont go against India at least in an open war for obvious reasons.

This is exactly where your whole exercise breaks down in logic. Any widespread conflict between the two as you envisage in the OP will go nuclear if the international community lets it get to that point.

 

[imadul]

You are talking about facts or your wish? If it is fact then also remember the fact that Pak tried Kargil and could achieve any thing positive for Pak...it is fact that neither Pak nor India are in position to over take other country. Let peace prevail...

Facts about economy. Economy is temporary but potentials are permanent
When it comes to war, that is a matter of when not if. Peace will only come if India agree to solve Kashmir crisis according to UN Resolution which India has thrown to dustbin and has also thrown away ceasefire of 1948 after repealing 370, and 35.

 

[Vanamali]

Facts about economy. Economy is temporary but potentials are permanent
When it comes to war, that is a matter of when not if. Peace will only come if India agree to solve Kashmir crisis according to UN Resolution which India has thrown to dustbin and has also thrown away ceasefire of 1948 after repealing 370, and 35.

Sorry boss you are forgetting basic rule, when you don't have strength to fight and win then you have to compromise. Pak alone is not in position to win a war over India in next few decades so if you want peace then you have to compromise. No other country will come and fight for you, this is historical fact... So Pak leadership has to decide whether the give peace or misery to its ppl... Kashmir is s bygone option to Pak...

 

[imadul]

Sorry boss you are forgetting basic rule, when you don't have strength to fight and win then you have to compromise. Pak alone is not in position to win a war over India in next few decades so if you want peace then you have to compromise. No other country will come and fight for you, this is historical fact... So Pak leadership has to decide whether the give peace or misery to its ppl... Kashmir is s bygone option to Pak...

Dear Vanamali, Kashmir is not a bygone for Pakistan, but it gives me immense satisfaction that majority of Indians have a euphoric sense of superiority and remain in denial.

 

[Vanamali]

Dear Vanamali, Kashmir is not a bygone for Pakistan, but it gives me immense satisfaction that majority of Indians have a euphoric sense of superiority and remain in denial.

Taking full JKL is bygone case.... At max you can retain Azad Kashmir ... If you think otherwise, you are building castles in thin air... We are better in few areas to Pak at this point of time, it will take atleast few decades for Pak to beat us...

 

[TheGreatMaratha]

Taking full JKL is bygone case.... At max you can retain Azad Kashmir ... If you think otherwise, you are building castles in thin air... We are better in few areas to Pak at this point of time, it will take atleast few decades for Pak to beat us...

Sometimes people just have to be honest about a few things and the good thing is, the Pakistani establishment is honest about that and knows that they absolutely can't take Kashmir by force even though they might say different things in front of the media. Yes, they tried a few things in the past and they definitely can do some mischief in the future as well but we'll do our part like always.

 

[blueazure]

Sometimes people just have to be honest about a few things and the good thing is, the Pakistani establishment is honest about that and knows that they absolutely can't take Kashmir by force even though they might say different things in front of the media. Yes, they tried a few things in the past and they definitely can do some mischief in the future as well but we'll do our part like always.

we took half of kashmir in 48 using irregulars with 303s



my grandfather's unit alone smashed a whole dogra brigade in muzaffarabad

Sorry boss you are forgetting basic rule, when you don't have strength to fight and win then you have to compromise. Pak alone is not in position to win a war over India in next few decades so if you want peace then you have to compromise. No other country will come and fight for you, this is historical fact... So Pak leadership has to decide whether the give peace or misery to its ppl... Kashmir is s bygone option to Pak...

just because pak leadership is compromised and scared of IMF and FATF doesnt kill the fact that pakistan raised the cost of 'occupying the vale' 10 fold back in the 90s

back then, indian battalion HQs had clear instructions that patrols in srinagar would be atleast 4 man size .

every day, we had 3,4 dead indians , but thanks to musharraf and WOT, pakistani establishment backed off and allowed india to consolidate the vale


having said that, it totally upto the pakistani establishment to decide the 'kinetics' in kashmir ,

but you should be thank ful that here in pakistan, we have a confused peacenik moron aka immi khan who has ruined everything ( from economy to kashmir policy)

 

[TheGreatMaratha]

we took half of kashmir in 48 using irregulars with 303s



my grandfather's unit alone smashed a whole dogra brigade in muzaffarabad

It's so easy! But I wonder why Pakistan hasn't gone further in its expansionist endeavors if it's so simple? Hmm...

Oh yeah, as always, you love to blame the establishment, the leaders and what not but fail to accept the hard reality. Anyway, I'm out of this discussion as these are now typical cliche topics but you can feel free to carry on.

 

[imadul]

This is exactly where your whole exercise breaks down in logic. Any widespread conflict between the two as you envisage in the OP will go nuclear if the international community lets it get to that point.

I wont predict what Int. community will or will not do. Events are occurring faster...and unpredictable. It seem even China will be forced to put aside its development first policy.
What situation int community will intervene?
1. India losing? might be!
2. Pak wont be loosing, as I have shown in the analysis above.

Pak has been fighting overt and covert war since 9-11; target was to keep Pakistan not to achieve it's TRUE potential but Pakistan has learned to live with this situation.
It cant be said int community will intervene in Pakistan- India full fledged conflict. World is changing. Developed world will be looking inwards post-covid19.
War may be limited to Kashmir only as india will be vacillating about Pak tactical weapons.
But this piece is not meant to be a one-man think tank report on the shape of the world .
It is to debunk the myth Pakistan cannot take India in a conventional war.