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Kashmir War: Is Beyond JKL

3. I think pakistan got AIM-120 AMRAAM in
2006 after kargil?
@Dazzler @BHarwana @Windjammer
Can you plz confirm!

Did not see any reply but wanted to close this. You are correct.. as per wikipedia.

In early 2006, the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) ordered 500 AIM-120C-5 AMRAAM missiles as part of a $650 million F-16 ammunition deal to equip its F-16C/D Block 50/52+ and F-16A/B Block 15 MLU fighters. The PAF got the first three F-16C/D Block 50/52+ aircraft on July 3, 2010 and first batch of AMRAAMs on July 26, 2010
 
The occupation of Indian Punjab is necessary not just for bargaining but most importantly for conducting khalistan refreundum and the creation of a buffer state between between pakistan and ganja jumna hindutva terrorists.
Remember the permanent solution only lies in the disintegration of India. As long as we share our border with these bunch of extremist sanghis peace is not possible.
That is a lot more then we can chew!
Have you thought about what Pakistan will do to take back its territories across International borders?
 
Less than 10 % of population in Kashmir valley supports Pakistan, Pakistan thought the same way during operation Gibraltar and was forced to defend Lahore.
Where did you get these numbers?
India would had had plebiscite a long time even if they had 50% support like they did in Junagarh.
There is limit to joke also.
 
Asking a couple of questions to help me understand.

If Indian Punjab is occupied won't it start the unraveling of individual states of India? Moving from Punjab to Deccan plateau does not pose any natural barriers. Moving into Punjab means red lines have been crossed. Why stop there? The concept of buffer state would not apply in my opinion.

On Khalistan, If there is a Khalistan state then there is a danger to Pakistani Punjab, since Khalistan aims to unite the erstwhile undivided Punjab. From a geo strategic perspective how will it be contained to Indian Punjab? Would that be trading a bulky slow enemy to a focused rival at the border? How can Khalistan not claim at least the historical Sikh/Khalsa places that are now in Pakistan?

Khalistan (1) in my mind is like Kurdistan. They are good to support as long as they are contained. Is that an incorrect assessment?
Well if you are someone who closely and regularly watches developments on Khalistan then you should know they are not claiming any part of pakistani Punjab as we speak.They basically seek freedom from the oppression, bad treatment they face from the Indian government be it Congress or BJP. It was not pakistan who further divided their Punjab after partition ,it was not pakistan who didn't recognize their religion in the Indian constitution and put it under another sect of Hinduism ,it was not pakistan who committed 1984 genocide,it's not pakistan who destroy their gurdwaras. As far as their religious places in Pakistan are concerned they are free to visit them anytime and they actually do visit them without any problem. According to their own words in Pakistan they are treated way better than in India. Their religious places are better protected here and we always welcomed them with open arms. See they had all the right reasons for not claiming any part of pakistani Punjab for khalistan.
Red lines are crossed in any war be it for 1 km or 2000 km of land.Indian Punjab concerns us because it's the only Pakistan bordering state seeking freedom from India and hence it's the only state which can act as a buffer state. Assam or naxal separatist movements don't concern us.
 
That is a lot more then we can chew!
Have you thought about what Pakistan will do to take back its territories across International borders?
But my freind the type of ideology which has taken over India now a buffer state is necessary for a permanent peace solution.
We can chew it all ,it depends how strong the khalistan movement gets in Indian Punjab. If it's any where near a civil war type situation with support from local population we can definitely chew it. And apparently with each and every passing month khalistan movement is getting stronger. Specially after Kashmir decision and CAA act.
 
Well if you are someone who closely and regularly watches developments on Khalistan then you should know they are not claiming any part of pakistani Punjab as we speak.
You are correct if you are talking about post 1970s - 1980s leaders supported by Pakistan. But the original movement started in 1940s, they may not be speaking of Pakistan now due to India being the biggest villain but on a larger time scale their original goal should not be ignored.

Khalistan is much more visible now but I would not agree that they are people's movement at this time. The leaders are unfortunately cut off from the general populace. Mass movement has a different structure than what I see now of Khalistan movement. Unless Pakistan conquers Indian Punjab and establishes them. The movement is not sustainable as of now. Of course, tomorrow is another story.

If there is any material that I can study to form different conclusions I would appreciate the links.

Red lines are crossed in any war be it for 1 km or 2000 km of land.Indian Punjab concerns us because it's the only Pakistan bordering state seeking freedom from India and hence it's the only state which can act as a buffer state. Assam or naxal separatist movements don't concern us.

The point I am trying to make is, if Pakistan can liberate Indian Punjab then there is no reason to leave JK, Gujarat or Rajasthan unconquered. If that is the case having only Punjab as buffer does not make sense :-). You would have strings of buffer states.
 
You are correct if you are talking about post 1970s - 1980s leaders supported by Pakistan. But the original movement started in 1940s, they may not be speaking of Pakistan now due to India being the biggest villain but on a larger time scale their original goal should not be ignored.

Khalistan is much more visible now but I would not agree that they are people's movement at this time. The leaders are unfortunately cut off from the general populace. Mass movement has a different structure than what I see now of Khalistan movement. Unless Pakistan conquers Indian Punjab and establishes them. The movement is not sustainable as of now. Of course, tomorrow is another story.

If there is any material that I can study to form different conclusions I would appreciate the links.
They don't want any part of Pakistan and actually they are not capable of taking any part from Pakistan. Likewise they are not capable of defeating Indian army as well. They cannot take khalistan without the help of pakistan ,if they manage to get it ,it will be a gift from pakistan.
Whatever their agenda was for khalistan after 1940 became null and void after 1947 partition.
Yes the movement has not reached its peak yet but it's getting stronger since modi came to power. May be I am wrong but I personally I feel soon it will be people's movement. Say thanks to the BJP RSS extremist government of India.
The point I am trying to make is, if Pakistan can liberate Indian Punjab then there is no reason to leave JK, Gujarat or Rajasthan unconquered. If that is the case having only Punjab as buffer does not make sense :-). You would have strings of buffer states.
JK definitely yes and that's the most demanded state by pakistan. I would say JK(Jammu and Kashmir) is the unfinished business of partition.
Gujarat, Rajasthan no because there is no signs that people of those states wants to be separated from India. Although I wish we don't share borders with those states where hindutva extremists and terrorists are residing. We can definitely invade them but not conquer then or hold a refreundum overthere to make buffer states.
 
This thesis was written in December 2019 but I had implied some PLA movement which makes more sense now after current India-China standoff in Laddakh even though de-escalation is taking place.

The write up references maps and tables, but I was not able to include rich text so I have rewritten this thesis in an abridged form but still it is quiet long, but it could had been more useful in the presence of colored maps and table – a picture worth thousand words!

Lastly, there is no secret information here. All military information was collected from the internet.

Mao Tse-tung –
“Everything under heaven is in utter chaos; the situation is excellent.”


Surprise attack is the key to any successful military victory but Islam prohibits undeclared war. So Pakistan has to throw Shimla Accord to dust bin and declare that human rights violation of Kashmiris will be an Act of War and Pakistan reserves the right to defend Kashmiri people. With this declaration in the open, Pakistan can preemptively strike India with whatever means Pakistan capable of. PAF role is supreme. PAF has to use ‘a la Israel Operation Focus, and destroy 50-60% IAF bases and planes on ground. If that happens, then Pakistan can dominate skies and support Pakistan Infantry and mechanized formations advancing in Kashmir and in the eastern war theater.

This war is for Kashmir and Pakistan must occupy entire JKL, Himachal Pradesh, and Eastern Punjab. I will explain why Pakistan has to occupy Himachal Pradesh and large parts of Indian/Eastern Punjab.

Pakistan Objectives:

1. Take whole of Kashmir including Jammu, and Laddakh
2. Wrest control of Pakistan upstream rivers coming from Kashmir
3. Occupy Himachal Pradesh in the further east of Kashmir for bargaining
4. Occupy parts of Indian Punjab to take control of river heads, barrages, dams on
Satlej, Ravi, and Beas – for bargaining
5. Defend Sindh where Pakistan is weakest

Here is Pakistan Kashmir Offense to Conquer Scenario:

Pakistan attack Kashmir Valley with strength of two corps, I and X. Kashmiris will cutoff Indian supply lines and attack from behind. Pakistan should be able to take valley comparatively easily. Pakistan can neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some mysterious reasons XIV Corps – Leh gets its attention diverted.

A coordinated attack with China will ensure Pakistan to take entire Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and most of Indian Punjab. Later Pakistan and China can settle borderlines in Laddakh amicably.

Pakistan Army Strength for Battle in Kashmir:

Pakistan Army’s strength lies in its experience of urban and rugged mountainous warfare it gained in ex FATA and ops and planning to combat RAW-NDS sponsored terrorism from Afghanistan. PA will face similar urban and mountainous landscape. This army is battle hardened and is the only army in the world that is victorious in the War on Terror. The desperate terrorists, Pakistan Army faced and defeated were the most vicious and ruthless in the history of mankind. Indian Army in Kashmir with low morale, fatigued by a long urban war, and one which will be constantly watching its back is not in an envious position to confront Pak Army. Most of Indian troops will be killed and many will become POW which will present valuable bargaining options later on.

With India losing in Kashmir it will strike hard at Punjab and Sindh and it will try to take as many Pakistani areas as possible so that after ceasefire it can bargain to take Kashmir back in return for Pakistani lands. It is, therefore, paramount that Pakistan not only take entire JKL but also Himachal Pradesh and some parts of Indian Punjab holding Ravi, Satlej, Beas water heads, barrages, and dams for bargaining. If that does not happen, then entire Kashmir operation will be futile!!

Pakistan’s only weapon is surprise and that can only be achieved by PAF.

PAF has to perform three roles:

1. Surprise India in the skies
2. Support PA Infantry and Mechanized Divisions
3. Support PN. PN is totally outnumbered by IN but we hope it can defend Karachi and Gwadar ports with help from PAF and keep Pakistan sea lanes open.

PN and PAF Roles:

Defend Karachi, and Gwadar ports from IN and IAF Ship/air-launched Brahmos Mach 3 missiles.

Below maps shows Indian Corps geographical locations (in red text) which will take part in war with Pakistan. Central and Eastern Commands are not shown as they are deployed on Indian Eastern Borders. They can be moved but India is not in a position to move all its army on Pakistan and Kashmir borders. With PLA moving troops in proximity with Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim, and weaknesses in Mizoram, Meghalia, and Nagaland; troops from Eastern Command cannot be moved to Western borders. But India has enough numbers on its borders with Pakistan. Latest reports suggest, PLA has moved troops on Indo-Tibetan borders.

Pakistan to attack valley with 2 x corps strength:

Pakistan should neutralize XV Corps Srinagar, and XVI Corps Nagrota. This will be achievable if due to some not so mysterious reasons, IA XIV Corps – Leh get its attention diverted.

Indian Army on the Western and Northern Borders:

1. Northern Command, Udhampur - Comprised of three corps, entirely focused on JKL (Jammu, Kashmir, Laddakh):

XIV Corps – Leh
XV Corps – Srinagar
XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu)
XIV Corps ↓ – Leh can’t move if engaged by China!

That leaves XV Corps – Srinagar and XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu) for offense and defense. These two crops can be helped by IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command.

In the best case scenario Pakistan Army will be facing three IA corps - XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command, and worst case scenario; four IA corps – three from JKL and fourth IX Corps – Yol from Western Command ---- shown in light brown box.

2. Western Command, Chandimandir

40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
II Corps – Ambala
IX Corps – Yol
XI Corps – Jalandhar

Western Command is critical for India. Its sphere will include Pakistani Punjab and also Jammu in case of IX Corps, Yol, shown as light green box.

Both Northern and Western Commands are central in Indian plan to defend Kashmir and attack Pakistani Punjab. Pakistan Army has to engage and neutralize them.

3. 50th Parachute Brigade, Agra

India will use its paratroopers in all of Kashmir, but may also use it to cutoff Pakistan supply lines elsewhere. India will also need paratroopers for potential war with China!

4. South Western Command, Jaipur, Rajasthan

42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
I Corps – Mathura
X Corps – Bathinda

South Western Command can be used to attack Pakistani Punjab and Sindh, shown as light yellow.

5. Southern Command, Pune

41st Artillery Div. – Pune
XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
XXI Corps – Bhopal

Southern Command is far in the Indian territories. If they attack Sindh, they will be crossing Thar Desert and can be targeted by PAF during offensive move, shown as light yellow box.

Pakistan Offense:

1. I Corps – Mangla
2. X Corps – Rawalpindi

I Corps - Mangla and X Corps – Rawalpindi to neutralize Indian XIV Corps – Leh, XV Corps – Srinagar, XVI Corps – Nagrota (Near Jammu), and IX Corps – Yol, from Western Command (WC).

If both Pakistan and China coordinate their offensive then XIV Corps – Leh, and IX Corps – Yol can be diverted by PLA from Laddakh and Tibet. [Latest reports suggest, PLA has deployed troops, Type 15 light tanks, and 155mm mobile howitzers on Indo-Tibetan borders.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/jun...ht_tanks_deployed_in_tibet_for_exercises.html, sic]

Action Scenario:

1. I Crops, Mangla – Kashmir Offense

Occupy Jammu and block IA IX Yol corps from WC.

Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.

2. X Corps, Rawalpindi – Kashmir Offense.

Objectives:
  1. Occupy Valley
  2. Move towards Himachal Pradesh.
Mostly ID movement! Later, mechanized formation can be forwarded using portable bridges on rivulets, nullah, and ridges.

It is essential that PA neutralizes IA IX Yol Corps to blunt a 3rd of IA WC. This will block IA reinforcement to JKL, greatly obstruct free movement of WC strike role in Pakistani Punjab – result will put entire WC in disarray.

I corps - 6th Armour Div. Gujranwala to move in Indian Punjab and to Himachal Pradesh. Entire Arm. Div won’t be moving in Indian heartland at this point.

Pakistan Defensive Actions to Defend Punjab


PA Defense Elements for North-Eastern Punjab:

1. XXX Corps – Gujranwala
2. IV Corps – Lahore

PA has to defend offensive from IA, WC Chandimandir which comprises:

1. 40th Artillery Div. – Ambala
2. II Corps – Ambala
3. IX Corps – Yol
4. XI Corps – Jalandhar

Actions Scenarios:

Indian WC ↓ could be immobilized by PLA from Indo-Tibetan border [this may not happen as China has its own strategic and economic reason].

IA will mobilize Strike groups from WC. PA I and II Corps had neutralized IA IX crops from WC.

Indian army’s rest of WC corps elements and SW corps elements will launch full force attack on Lahore and Sialkot.

PA XXX Corps, Gujranwala & IV Corps, Lahore, will defend Pakistani Punjab with help from 6th Armour Div Gujranwala (this will need coordination as 6th Armour will also move in India Punjab and then to Himachal Pradesh).

They have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow in Indian Punjab and help consolidate gains in Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh!!

PA Defense Elements for Central-Eastern Punjab:

XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend offensive from IA – WC.

Indian South Western Command – Jaipur, Rajasthan:

1. 42nd Artillery Div – Jaipur
2. I Corps – Mathura
3. X Corps – Bathinda

Actions Scenarios:

XXXI Corps – Bahawalpur, Punjab has to defend central Punjab from attack from India SW command– Jaipur, Rajasthan. This corps will have to defend Central Punjab and Cholistan. They could be helped by XII Corps – Quetta, pre-mobilized.

XXXI Corps would have to hold ground what may and tire IA for PA II Corps, Multan to inflict last mortal blow!!

PA Defense Elements for Sindh:


Sindh is Pakistan’s weakest link in Eastern War Theater. Only V Corps, Karachi covers entire Sindh against India SC – Pune.

V Crops, Karachi:

1. 16 Infantry, Pannu Aqil
2. 18th Infantry, Hyderabad
3. 25th Mechanized Div. Malir
4. 31st Mechanized Div., Hyderabad

Indian Southern Command – Pune:

1. 41st Artillery Div. – Pune
2. XII Corps – Jodhpur, Rajasthan
3. XXI Corps – Bhopal

Action Scenarios:

IA Southern Command is far deep in Indian territories. They, however, will be used to attack Sindh including Hyderabad and upper Sindh all along east of Indus River. IA will be crossing Thar to invade Sindh. That will be a time for PAF to engage IA formations to destroy moving infantry and mechanized columns in Rajasthan and Thar deserts. Pakistan is weak in Anti-Armour gunships so PAF has to take a very intensive role throughout eastern theaters.

PA V corps will utilize infantry divisions from Pannu Aqil and Hyderabad, and Mechanized divisions from Malir and Hyderabad. V Corps will need reinforcement from XII corps, Quetta.

End Game:

It is often sighted that PA is weak against India. I don’t think it is true. Pakistan has enough strength to hold India and even occupy many parts of India. Pakistan military planners should not be short sighted to only focus on liberating Kashmir and to defending its Eastern borders. They must plan to liberate entire Kashmir including Jammu and Laddakh, as well as occupy large parts of Indian Punjab and Himachal Pradesh to later bargain for Pakistan territories India shall be able to occupy in Pakistani Punjab and Sindh.

The Air power and sky-dominant factor is missing. Pick up any war scenario occurring in last 30+ years, its the air power that can be decisive for the outcome. In the case you put forward, you missed to go in details regarding about PAF and IAF Ops.
 
It's so easy! But I wonder why Pakistan hasn't gone further in its expansionist endeavors if it's so simple? Hmm...

Oh yeah, as always, you love to blame the establishment, the leaders and what not but fail to accept the hard reality. Anyway, I'm out of this discussion as these are now typical cliche topics but you can feel free to carry on.


my grandfather's unit of irregulars smashed a whole dogra brigade in muzaffarabad in 48 ' and forced them to retreat back to Uri leaving scores dead all along the way

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a reminder = we have half of kashmir


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The Air power and sky-dominant factor is missing. Pick up any war scenario occurring in last 30+ years, its the air power that can be decisive for the outcome. In the case you put forward, you missed to go in details regarding about PAF and IAF Ops.
I also did not include 5GW, 6GW, Syops, Hybrid War. That will become the job of a think tank.
My main objective was to really know Pakistan's vulnerabilities against India's Cold War doctrine and India's shift to proactively attack Pakistan like their Balakot strike of 26 Feb, 2019 after Pulwama.

Second objective was to instill this fact that for any war with India, Pakistan's objectives just cannot be limited to liberation of JKL but also to occupy enough Indian territories and cut off their areas that after war India will be in a limited bargaining position. India will be able to occupy Pakistan territories and when swap takes place Pakistan will return India's other captured territories for Pakistan's captured territories but retain JKL.

Having said that, PAF role will be critical as it has to support PN as well as defend Pakistan skies and also strike enemy sites, installations, and provide cover to PA.

Most of the elite members take more interest in systems (new acquisitions like Ada/Jinnah frigates, 05A-AP, Hangor class SSK, JF block III, AK's, and other systems) but not much on strategic planning, war outcomes, objectives, and methods of achieving outcomes.

Strategic thinking is as important as the bells and whistles of modern war systems.
other people should add value how PAF and PN can combat a much larger IAF, and IN. but india has a much more larger area to defend than Pakistan. Now they are facing a real possibility of 2-front war, Pakistan has more flexibility and more options. All advantages must be exploited.
 
If you're going to do it then you better do it now. In next 5-10 years, it will be almost impossible for Pakistan to match India's capability due to the ongoing modernization and indigenization drive of Indian armed forces.

In any case, Pakistan may inflict initial casualties and capture some Indian territory but the Indian retaliation will be massive. Our strength actually lies with our Navy which is massive if compared to PN. In case of a full-scale war, our navy will deal devastating losses on Pakistani port and battleships and will force a naval blockade...effectively cutting your supplies. Once your supply lines are cut, our counter-attack on ground and air will allow us to re-capture our territories and possibly gain Pakistani territories as well.

This is all under the assumption that the whole thing doesn't escalate to nuclear war. In that case, India will suffer catastrophic damage but in return it will completely destroy any sign of current day Pakistan. People will only read about Pakistan in history books in this scenario.
 
I also did not include 5GW, 6GW, Syops, Hybrid War. That will become the job of a think tank.
My main objective was to really know Pakistan's vulnerabilities against India's Cold War doctrine and India's shift to proactively attack Pakistan like their Balakot strike of 26 Feb, 2019 after Pulwama.
Discussed and posted many times, use the search button
 
If you're going to do it then you better do it now. In next 5-10 years, it will be almost impossible for Pakistan to match India's capability due to the ongoing modernization and indigenization drive of Indian armed forces.

In any case, Pakistan may inflict initial casualties and capture some Indian territory but the Indian retaliation will be massive. Our strength actually lies with our Navy which is massive if compared to PN. In case of a full-scale war, our navy will deal devastating losses on Pakistani port and battleships and will force a naval blockade...effectively cutting your supplies. Once your supply lines are cut, our counter-attack on ground and air will allow us to re-capture our territories and possibly gain Pakistani territories as well.

This is all under the assumption that the whole thing doesn't escalate to nuclear war. In that case, India will suffer catastrophic damage but in return it will completely destroy any sign of current day Pakistan. People will only read about Pakistan in history books in this scenario.
Igniting a war is a difficult choice but under BJP ultra-hindu right wing rule, India is going to provoke both China and Pakistan. India had invoked China so it will be a real two front war for india not just as was talked about academically. Pakistan and China will make integrated plans.
In all war scenarios with Pakistan, india cannot put all their forced, army, navy, air force on Pakistan side. India will keep large part of it navy probably major part around MALACCA strait, and Andaman rather than in Arabian sea and its AF and large number of troops and equipment in Laddakh, Tibet, arunachal Pradesh borders, and seven restive NE states.
 
Pakistanis are living in a dream world if they assume US will not get involved if China does.
 

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