3 March 2009
The attacks in Lahore could be the result of a "holy alliance" of extremists who have come together to try and topple the Pakistani state.
They include the Taliban and al-Qaeda but may also have recruited well-trained terrorists from Kashmiri groups such as Lashkar e-Taiba (LeT), responsible for the Mumbai attacks.
Their aim is to overthrow the government in Pakistan whether military or civilian and replace it with an Islamic one, and attacking high-profile sporting targets such as the Sri Lankan cricket team would fit an agenda which sees music and entertainment as un-Islamic.
With a team made up mostly of Buddhists, the Sri Lankans must have looked even more attractive to religious fundamentalists aiming for a new "spectacular."
The attack in Lahore bore striking similarities to the attacks on hotels in Mumbai, India.
Several of the men had adopted western clothing and were carrying backpacks of supplies and spare ammunition and grenades, moving in pairs from target to target.
Indian police interrogating Zarrar Shah, the only surviving Mumbai bomber, last year said he had trained with 20 other terrorists.
If LeT is responsible, it would mean they had turned on the state that once supported them.
The group started as a nationalist organisation fighting Indian forces with the support of the Pakistani secret service, the ISI, and aiming at reuniting Pakistani and Indian parts of Kashmir.
But their attacks on hotels in Mumbai showed that they have become much closer to the global Islamic agenda of al-Qaeda, as they attacked western and Jewish targets.
Although the organisation was already nominally banned in Pakistan, the Mumbai attacks provoked the Pakistani government to arrest their leaders.
Ahmed Rashid, who lives in Lahore and has written a book, Descent into Chaos, about Pakistan's struggle against militants, said the attackers were almost certainly part of this "extremist network."
"These men appeared to be urban-based and semi-educated and are more likely to be from Kashmiri or Punjabi extremist groups than Taliban tribesmen.
"They could be from Lashkar e-Taiba which has battle experience in Afghanistan, links to al-Qaeda and has conducted multiple operations in Pakistan.
"It is part of a new network of groups that takes its strategy from al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan and Afghanistan."
His view was echoed by Salman Taseer, governor of the Punjab, where Lahore is the capital, who said: "It's the same pattern, the same terrorists who attacked Mumbai."
Mr Rashid said there were now two or three suicide bombings a week in Pakistan, stretching from Karachi in the south to Islamabad in the north.
"The government will probably survive this particular attack, but there will be more to come," he added.
Professor Michael Clarke, director of the Royal United Services Institute, said the agenda of the attackers owed more to the Taliban and al-Qaeda than the traditionally nationalist aims of Kashmiri separatist groups.
"It is more likely that these men are religious fundamentalists who want Pakistan to be a land of Islam," he said.
Although one of the Pakistan Taliban leaders, Maulana Fazlullah, in the once-peaceful Swat Valley in northern Pakistan, agreed a shaky ceasefire last week, the other main Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, in the western Tribal Areas, remains a potent threat.
The attack on the cricket team bus a combination of car bombs and shooting has echoes of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, wife of President Zardari, which was carried out by Mehsud's men in Rawalpindi.
But it also represents as "spectacular" aimed at putting "terror in the hearts of the unbelievers" which is a typical tactic of al-Qaeda leaders living under Taliban protection.
"This is potentially a big nail in the coffin of Pakistan. The message is that Pakistan is a basket case," said Prof Clarke, "and all the international and American support will not make any difference."
Without any claim of responsibility, which may never come, other groups associated with al-Qaeda cannot be ruled out, including Jaish e-Mohammed, Harakat ul-Mujahideen and Lashkar e-Jhangvi.
Another theory, is that the attack was the work of the Tamil Tigers, currently in a rear-guard fight for survival in Sri Lanka, but that remains unlikely since Muttiah Muralitharan, one of the stars of the Sri Lankan cricket team, is a Tamil.
Elements in Pakistan are always likely to blame their traditional enemy, India, but with the Pakistani security forces' failure to capture any of the gunmen, the identity of the culprits may remain a mystery.
Source: Telegraph