Excellent question but I think we need to take a more expanded view on the effects. Here is the short form:
Clearly with a soviet win in Afghanistan would have resulted in an extended cold war leading well into the 90s.
Taliban, Osama and Co. would have still existed but their activities would have been focused within the afghan borders fighting the soviets. They would have heralded as western heroes, as they were during the conflict, but they would have been contained and killed off.
Pakistan would have been the lead participant still, creating and managing the combat doctrine with the soviets i.e. it would still have been the tip of the spear. until the following:
The soviets are smart people, gradually they would have shifted their world view and would have started forming alliances with neighboring countries including Pakistan. Afghanistan would have been distributed as governed territories between the Soviets, Iranians and Pakistanis. The new Eastern bloc would have included the Soviets, Chinese, Pakistan, Iran and the Arab muslim countries, as it is happening right now - save for the absorption of Afghanistan.
With no foothold in the east, the western alliances would have shifted their focus to the Indians as their outpost in Asia, relieving the Korean peninsula of this burden, and an East dominated by the Russians and the Chinese would have meant a reversal of fortune for the South Koreans.
A coordinated strategy by the Russians, Chinese and Pakistan would have resulted in the formation of Khalistan. Far East Asian countries are duds anyways, and they would have been economically absorbed by China.
Eventually, backed by the west, the indians would have made a push to invade Khalistan and boom World War III, which will happen anyways.
