Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

[CAPRICORN-88]

As both Russia and China anticipated, the reactions of the US and West is quite predictable.

In 1979 the SU failed to turn up to protect Vietnam. PLA withdraw back to her border after one peaceful month of NO resistance.

In 2022 despite barking incessantly, the US and NATO stay away ftom Ukraine. Zalensky felt betrayed.

Ukraine is now left all alone to negotiate for a peace deal and a ceasefire with them submitting a written proposal to meet Russian demands halfway in Istanbul. The proposal it seems included a promise to neutrality and even a right for Russia to veto foreign military in Ukraine.

But Russia has not agreed.

Does it look like Russia is losing the war as propagate in the US and Western News Media?

Troop rotation and reduction at Kiev is already happening and the West hailed these as a victory. Strange.

IMO that is because Kiev is not even Russia main military objectives.

Demilitarisation and denazification of Eastern Provinces are and is now entering the next phrase where Ukrianian Army out of fresh water, food and ammunitions will have to surrender or eliminated.

Now, witnessing this, all China has to do is to fine-tune it to minimize the impact on its trade.

Dedollarization will be accelerated.

IMO China prefers a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and it is inevitable when it happened. Matter of time.

Military invasion of Taiwan is an option but China have better ways.
Most Taiwanese have indicated in surveys they are not willing to fight their Mainland brothers when it happened.

That is why China constant patrols of Taiwan Airspace are basically aimed more towards the US.

To deploy F-22 from Guam will required 4 airfueling alone. The refuel tankers will be eliminated in a real war.

Even the USN most potent warship a SSN Seawolf is not spared.
It lost its forward sonar in a collision (with an unknown object??? USN claimed) but USN dared not revealed it location and mission in fear of violation of International Treaty. Opening speculation China knew exactly where it was and has tracked it all the way since it entered SCS.

The years ahead will be interesting.

 

[Han Patriot]

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Russia's poor performance in its Ukraine war will make China more cautious about attacking Taiwan as Beijing is watching the conflict to learn military lessons, Taiwan's government on Wednesday cited a meeting of senior advisers as saying.

Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion, wary of Beijing possibly making a similar move on the island, though it has reported no signs this is about to happen.

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement following a meeting of its China policy advisers that Beijing was watching Russia's combat experience, Ukraine's resistance and international sanctions "to deduce the possible situation of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait".

It cited the advisers as saying that the war had "great lessons" for China's People's Liberation Army, "especially the Russian military's over-estimation of its long-range precision strikes".


Russia misjudged the war situation, did not properly analyse intelligence and its generals were promoted based on personal relationships, not talent, they added.

"This will also affect the trust of Chinese communist leaders in their army, and they will be more cautious when using force."

Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue have told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.

The possible impact of the war on China's military thinking on Taiwan, and how China could attack the island, has been widely debated in official circles in Taipei.

Asked about those kinds of remarks, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said earlier on Wednesday that the government was willing to make the greatest efforts to achieve "peaceful reunification".

"At the same time, we will never tolerate Taiwan independence. If Taiwan independence separatist forces dare to provoke and push things, or even cross red lines, we will take decisive measures," spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said in Beijing.

China has been stepping up its military pressure against Taiwan over the past two years or so.

Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims, and says only the island's people can decide their future.

Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

Russia's poor performance in its Ukraine war will make China more cautious about attacking Taiwan as Beijing is watching the conflict to learn military lessons, Taiwan's government on Wednesday cited a meeting of senior advisers as saying. Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has...

news.yahoo.com

More cautious? China just saw how pussified US was. They now know exactly what will happen, lol. US will provide arms but stay out of Taiwan. Lessons leanrnt on urban warfare though, bomb them to them for a year like US before going in.

As both Russia and China anticipated, the reactions of the US and West is quite predictable.

In 1979 the SU failed to turn up to protect Vietnam. PLA withdraw back to her border after one peaceful month of NO resistance.

In 2022 despite barking incessantly, the US and NATO stay away ftom Ukraine. Zalensky felt betrayed.

Now Ukraine all alone is left to negotiate a ceasefire with written proposal to meet Russian demands halfway in Istanbul including neutrality and even a right for Russia to veto foreign military in Ukraine.

But Russia has not agreed.

Does it look like Russia is losing the war as propagate in the US and Western News Media?

Troop rotation and reduction at Kiev is already happening and the West hailed these as a victory. Strange.

IMO that is because Kiev is not even Russia main military objectives.

Demilitarisation and denazification of Eastern Provinces are and is now entering the next phrase where Ukrianian Army out of fresh water, food and ammunitions will have to surrender or eliminated.

Now, witnessing this, all China has to do is to fine-tune it to minimize the impact on its trade.

Dedollarization will be accelerated.

IMO China prefers a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and it is inevitable when it happened. Matter of time.

Military invasion of Taiwan is an option but China still have better ways.
Most Taiwanese have indicated in surveys they are not willing to fight their Mainland brothers when it happened.

That is why China constant patrols of Taiwan Airspace are basically aimed more towards the US.

To deploy F-22 from Guam will required 4 airfueling alone. The refuel tankers will be eliminated in a real war.

Even the USN most potent warship a SSN Seawolf is not spared.
It lost its forward sonar in a collision (with an unknown object??? USN claimed) but USN dared not revealed it location and mission in fear of violation of International Treaty. Opening speculation China knew exactly where it was and has tracked it all the way since it entered SCS.

The years ahead will be interesting.

The US is essentially winning the twitter wars to cover their abandonment of Ukraine. Wtf, they just stayed out abd had to declare it loudly so Russia don't launch an attack on America. Lol

 

[kankan326]

Now let us assume that the US and allies, Asian and EU, decides to help Taiwan ala Ukraine, meaning not troops but materiel DURING the war. So Taiwan inflict serious losses on the PLAN making the blockade weaker, then we resupply Taiwan defenses.

What the "allies" you are referring to? Ukraine war gives you an illusion that European countries will stand with US in any circumstances. Not true. European countries only care wars in Europe, especially when Russia is involved in the war. They will never engage in a war that happens thousands kiometers away, especially when China is involved. Not even follow US economic sanction to China.

So your "allies" that can possibly help US on Taiwan war are only two countries left. Japan and Australia. I seriously doubt they dare to challenge China when that day comes.

 

[gambit]

What the "allies" you are referring to? Ukraine war gives you an illusion that European countries will stand with US in any circumstances. Not true. European countries only care wars in Europe, especially when Russia is involved in the war. They will never engage in a war that happens thousands kiometers away, especially when China is involved. Not even follow US economic sanction to China.

So your "allies" that can possibly help US on Taiwan war are only two countries left. Japan and Australia. I seriously doubt they dare to challenge China when that day comes.

Here is the deal...

What make you think you are any more correct now about Taiwan than when the Russia-Ukraine war started? Am not saying YOU personally but generically. How many Asian countries joined in on the sanctions on Russia? Ukraine exports about %10 of global wheat. How much does the world depends on Taiwan for semiconductor products? The last several decades made the world more economically integrated, for good or bad is for a different discussion, but countries got hit hard by that war. One sector or another, a country somewhere was affected. On the military side, before Russia invaded, there were no shortage of statistics and charts showing how the war would be short and in favor of Russia. Now look at what happened. NATO sent no troops but just weapons and the Russian military got stalled.

Every new war is a learning experience. Looks like you guys have not taken this lesson seriously.

 

[Beast]

Ukraine war is a great example why China invade Taiwan with ease. Becos of NATO (NO ACTION TALK ONLY)

We know the Quad will bark but they lack the bite. And China is unsanctionable given US even loses the trade war with China.

Typical Taiwanese journalism to write trash to delude themselves from reality.

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

Now Mike Pompeo sanctioned by China went to Taiwan and told US to recognize it as an independent nation.

The Taiwanese obviously know his game and the consequences. The community is in a panicky mode.
Taiwan kept the news in low key.

Many foreign investors are now mulling leaving Taiwan.

 

[Han Patriot]

Here is the deal...

What make you think you are any more correct now about Taiwan than when the Russia-Ukraine war started? Am not saying YOU personally but generically. How many Asian countries joined in on the sanctions on Russia? Ukraine exports about %10 of global wheat. How much does the world depends on Taiwan for semiconductor products? The last several decades made the world more economically integrated, for good or bad is for a different discussion, but countries got hit hard by that war. One sector or another, a country somewhere was affected. On the military side, before Russia invaded, there were no shortage of statistics and charts showing how the war would be short and in favor of Russia. Now look at what happened. NATO sent no troops but just weapons and the Russian military got stalled.

Every new war is a learning experience. Looks like you guys have not taken this lesson seriously.

All these analysis explanation bla bla bla, let me ask you a god damn question. WHY ISN'T US IN UKRAINE!

 

[S10]

We do need to be careful.

1. Root out corruption
2. Improve logistics and support capabilities
3. Achieve air supremacy and maintain effective SEAD beyond opening days
4. Develop effective battlefield surveillance, control and communication
5. Drone the shit out of everything that moves on the island

 

[gambit]

All these analysis explanation bla bla bla, let me ask you a god damn question. WHY ISN'T US IN UKRAINE!

Why is China not in Russia?

Ukraine war is a great example why China invade Taiwan with ease.

More like the PLA is sweating out a new higher estimate of casualties for Xi.

 

[hualushui]

 

[F-22Raptor]

Why is China not in Russia?


More like the PLA is sweating out a new higher estimate of casualties for Xi.

As I expected Gambit, the Chinese here have learned almost nothing from Russias debacle. Humiliation awaits them in Taiwan.

These are the same rubes that have peddled lies about the Chinese military needing no training or experience in warfare for the last 8 years I’ve been on this forum. Those assertions have been thoroughly crushed in Ukraine.

If the PLA leadership are as clueless as the Russians they WILL be humiliated.

 

[Viet]

As both Russia and China anticipated, the reactions of the US and West is quite predictable.

In 1979 the SU failed to turn up to protect Vietnam. PLA withdraw back to her border after one peaceful month of NO resistance.

In 2022 despite barking incessantly, the US and NATO stay away ftom Ukraine. Zalensky felt betrayed.

Ukraine is now left all alone to negotiate for a peace deal and a ceasefire with them submitting a written proposal to meet Russian demands halfway in Istanbul. The proposal it seems included a promise to neutrality and even a right for Russia to veto foreign military in Ukraine.

But Russia has not agreed.

Does it look like Russia is losing the war as propagate in the US and Western News Media?

Troop rotation and reduction at Kiev is already happening and the West hailed these as a victory. Strange.

IMO that is because Kiev is not even Russia main military objectives.

Demilitarisation and denazification of Eastern Provinces are and is now entering the next phrase where Ukrianian Army out of fresh water, food and ammunitions will have to surrender or eliminated.

Now, witnessing this, all China has to do is to fine-tune it to minimize the impact on its trade.

Dedollarization will be accelerated.

IMO China prefers a peaceful reunification with Taiwan and it is inevitable when it happened. Matter of time.

Military invasion of Taiwan is an option but China have better ways.
Most Taiwanese have indicated in surveys they are not willing to fight their Mainland brothers when it happened.

That is why China constant patrols of Taiwan Airspace are basically aimed more towards the US.

To deploy F-22 from Guam will required 4 airfueling alone. The refuel tankers will be eliminated in a real war.

Even the USN most potent warship a SSN Seawolf is not spared.
It lost its forward sonar in a collision (with an unknown object??? USN claimed) but USN dared not revealed it location and mission in fear of violation of International Treaty. Opening speculation China knew exactly where it was and has tracked it all the way since it entered SCS.

The years ahead will be interesting.

You failed to tell the part of story: a man arrives and gives gifts to children. Man, you sound like a psychopath. Go seek a doc.

 

[Rafi]

And Russia did declared Ukraine an 'internal matter' as well.

Of course, but the majority of the world adhere to the "one China" policy, including good ol' Uncle Sam.

As I expected Gambit, the Chinese here have learned almost nothing from Russias debacle. Humiliation awaits them in Taiwan.

These are the same rubes that have peddled lies about the Chinese military needing no training or experience in warfare for the last 8 years I’ve been on this forum. Those assertions have been thoroughly crushed in Ukraine.

If the PLA leadership are as clueless as the Russians they WILL be humiliated.

HahahahNahHahHahHaha

 

[gambit]

Of course, but the majority of the world adhere to the "one China" policy, including good ol' Uncle Sam.

You do know that the US have been arming Taiwan for decades, right?

 

[Viet]

Ukraine war is a great example why China invade Taiwan with ease. Becos of NATO (NO ACTION TALK ONLY)

We know the Quad will bark but they lack the bite. And China is unsanctionable given US even loses the trade war with China.

Typical Taiwanese journalism to write trash to delude themselves from reality.

Ukraine is not a Nato state. Otherwise Russia would not attack. Putin not mad enough to risk bringing a nuclear holocaust to his own country. When you chinese posters learn the reality.