Tough love! Modi’s raising Balochistan doesnt mean he has abandoned hopes of a historic peace

[SQ8]

Too early to say, this is new ground as traditionally India has been timid due to it's Panchsheel Policy of not interfering in other countries matters (BD and SL notwithstanding as they had direct and tangential impact on India itself due to refugees) . Let's see where this road takes us

That is a misstatement, India was meddling in the affairs of East Pakistan by the early to mid 60's via its various connections with Bengali dissidents who occupied positions of power. Then in Sri Lanka, and in Burma.. until this facade of self righteousness is ditched by Indians; neither side will ever sit down to talk. Each will think their high horse is better, and in my case.. leave me uninterested in any discussion.

 

[RAMPAGE]

Poorly written article. Nothing said to justify the one-liner in the title and the other one at the end of the article.

Modi’s fervent desire to “turn the course of history” with Pakistan remains a noble one, but the path to that optimistic turn may be paved by the dark passage of tough love.

Bringing up Balochistan isn't exactly going to convince Pakistan to take the peace offer that the author thinks has been put on to the table by India. Such statements are proof of the fact that Govt of India is not interested in peace between the two nations and in Kashmir. Pakistan of course can reciprocate by funding a properly executed lobbying, campaigning and propaganda which can target Naxalite insurgency along with the Kashmir issue. Pakistan has the tools to combat Indian lobbying in a much better way than it is doing at the moment. Plenty of favours can be called in and leveraging can be done to strengthen our stance. There will hardly be a Baloch issue to be exploited in a couple of years when the north gets directly connected to the southwest and the remaining scattered Balochs get integrated into the state.

But I am not in the favour of all that and I think that the wisest course of action would be to resume talks with the help of experienced negotiators and think tanks. Even if there are no territorial changes and we manage to achieve peace between our two counties, establish trade and renew our agreements on water distribution then it'll be more than acceptable to me.

 

[SQ8]

It holds for either sides

Which I alluded to, until each side decides its ego isnt at stake here; we all might end up nuking each other for it. Well, at least you guys anyway, Im one of the few lucky who has managed to extricate himself and his family from the equation

 

[utraash]

I don't buy the argument of policy shift by Modi gov as such, what I feel is Modi's utterances on Pakistan internal vulnerability is mere to signal to establishments across the border not to poke in our internal affairs....

 

[halupridol]

guys kindly opine.
taking all relevent geostrategic/political/economic reasons into consideration alongwith aspirations,interests,strength of involved parties,,,,
which region, do u think, has better chance/probability of becoming an independent nation- kashmir or balochistan
(not a troll question)

 

[halupridol]

The significance is 'not a troll question'

And it is directly a troll topic.

i expected a detailed reply
u just skipped it

 

[Arsalan]

No one in this world cares for kashmir, only pakistan and india have to sort this out .

Yes there have been protests in the area , something which is a worry , but the govt has started to reach out , the problem will be solved. This is not the first time it has happened , it happened way back in 2010 , it may happen again , but the point is that it will be contained.
Kashmir has been with india and shall be with india, no matter who does what it shall be with us . Now you can feel good by saying that kashmir will break away , but fact is its a pipe dream , one which will not see the light of day for the next few generations.

What would be best is to make the LOC into the IB and be done with it . let there be a free exchange of people across the borders , in fact this is the formula which was close to being signed during musharrafs time , but he ended up being replaced.

You know what, THEY do worry!! They worry because if the problem is resolved the relations will improve rapidly!! You have a huge Muslim population, we share some cultural values, there are many differences but there are commonalities as well. So once we settle Kashmir problem and then do not poke our noses where they do not belong, the relations will improve. So THEY do care!! They worry in fact!! The problem is OUR PEOPLE who do not realize this simple fact. This is the reason i always say that the Kashmir issue have to be resolved and it will be India, Pakistan and Kashmiris who will sit together and resolve it, it wont happen by itself! It haven't for 70 off years!! This is one of those problems where delaying ta

Why would you mention it then???????

Isn't it obvious?

Why don't you invite the said 'insecure' members over too? They can have the 'security' of Karachi!

As a member .......... in Pakistan. (hic!!)

Only if you had something better to add to the discussion!!
Pity!!

The plan is quite hardened. I shudder in laughter at the consequences of it. But appreciate it, albeit it could have been 20 years back or right after 1971. Ask @Joe Shearer. I am afraid that is all I can speak. Beyond is not my domain.

To tell the truth, there have been plans in the making for decades, plans which never left the drawing board, plans which were put in action, plans which failed and those which succeeded! The fact remains that here we are, both of us, full of animosity and anger and intolerant towards each other but still, here we are!! BOTH OF US!! Kashmir burns and the sad part if that non of those plans did any thing to change that. As long as our plans involve pulling legs things wont change. The sooner you and us realize that the better!

That is a misstatement, India was meddling in the affairs of East Pakistan by the early to mid 60's via its various connections with Bengali dissidents who occupied positions of power. Then in Sri Lanka, and in Burma.. until this facade of self righteousness is ditched by Indians; neither side will ever sit down to talk. Each will think their high horse is better, and in my case.. leave me uninterested in any discussion.

True!!
This facade of righteousness is the problem that is stopping us from resolving the REAL problem. The sad reality is, if the discussion on this forum and the attitude of the members is anything to go by, i do not see this change happening anytime soon!

 

[Levina]

which region, do u think, has better chance/probability of becoming an independent nation- kashmir or balochistan
(not a troll question)

Doesnt matter if it is Kashmir or Baluchistan.
Whichever becomes independent is doomed!

Some things to ponder upon.
1.He's around 40 years too late. Back in the early 70's there were real problems in the region that India could have exploited, that window of opportunity has now gone.
2. Baluch youth have signed up in large numbers to the regular army, this in part due to economic stagnation in the region. There are around 30,000 in the regular army, with another 7,000 being trained.
3. The youth have left the region in large numbers, migrating to Pakistan's biggest cities for further education and work. They now spearhead efforts to finish off the feudal system, which was the focal point for the rebellion. It did not take them too long to figure out that they were getting the short end of the stick. The sardars sent their own children to the US, UK and Germany to be educated and upon their return had them driving 4 x 4's and owning large tracts of land, where the families of the students were "indebted" to them. If they dared venture out, to sample life outside the region, they were told it was a Punjabi conspiracy, and if they insisted, some gentle coercion with AK-47 rounds to the head,
would nudge them in the correct direction.
4. Population, the region is very mixed with a Pakhtun population making up around 40% of the overall people and Baluch and Brahui speakers making up 60% (20% are Barhui), which mutes nationalist fever, as in nationalists who are opposed to Pakistan find it very hard now to gain a sympathetic voice. The Baloch want to live in peace with their fellow countrymen, without the poison of the anti-Pakistan groups, who have in the past tried to start ethnic conflicts, which would be a disaster for all.
5. It's support base outside Pakistan has dwindled to practically nothing. For example a rally in Germany where a sizeable Baluch population resides, only brought out 12 people....Last year also saw the capitulation of the largest Baluch independence organisation in the US, as their leader said they will work with Pakistan now.
6. The insurgency proper has dwindled to what can be described as a puddle. Successful attacks are unheard of, hundreds of fighters have given up their arms, and so forth.

Sir,
Unlike many members, neither have you brought in Kashmir nor have you accused India of meddling into pak's affairs.
Infact, your post helps me understand the Baloch issue better. So far, I knew it as one of the poorest province of Pakistan.
IMO, what has caused resentment among Balochis, is the fact that skilled labourers are often brought from outside. I also read, its the migration of Pashtun which drives insurgency in the region.
what is it that causes development issues in the region and how has your govt tackled it so far?

You add fuel, you have been adding fuel.* correction.
Secondly, what shamelessness really. This is only confirming our stance that India is involved in terrorism in Pakistan.

I wonder why Modi forgot to mention about 'thank you' letters from Radio Mullah. He seems to be taking pride in terrorist thanking Modi for supporting them. I mean this is just low, accepting support for terrorism. Worst part is look at the reaction of Indian public, sorry to say what a bad image of India being presented to the world.

No we shouldn't, we shouldn't fall to their level. They are desperate and we already know India is supporting terrorism in Pakistan, what else has Modi said that is new. He is only conforming our stance, we should strengthen our selves internally and show their image to the world.
Hinsutva elements need to swallow Pakistan, it's been 70 years. Work on betterment of your country instead of trying to break us please.

Jump in policy of Indian state.
PS: i feel sorry for Nehru, what was he thinking right? So much for your assurance Jawar Lal Nehru...

Good points. The best argument raised on this subject was by Sartak Ganguly(God knows what happened to him). Look why it was necessary to make this amendment.
@anant_s , last part of my post.

1. I want you to read the title of this thread. Pls do!
It says "Modi has not abandoned hope for historic peace".
When you get pushed to the wall, you react, so did India.

2. You claim that India has meddled into Pakistan's affairs. Amnesty international, which is often resorted to by Pakistani members, had this to say about Baluchistan>>>

http://web.archive.org/web/20101027...urder-and-torture-baloch-activists-2010-10-26

3. India and its support has exacerbated the issue in Baluchistan- again something you guys claim but this is what i read

source
Now these are some credible people who have denied taking pakistan's allegations seriously. If it were to be put succinctly then, pull up your socks and get going. Stop blaming India for everything that's going wrong inside Pakistan.
4. Modi's statement came after baloch people asked for India's intervention.

source

Now this is what i leave you with>>>
“We Can Torture, Kill,
or Keep You for Years”
This is by human rights watch.

May be mentioning Balochistan was Modi's way of saying that Pakistan too lives in a glass house.

Btw I saw you mentioning @SarthakGanguly, last i heard he got admission in an university for post graduation. So I'm assuming hes studying.

And we never interfered in India's internal matters and Kashmir is not India's internal matter.

Seriously?
This is what i read is the history of Baluchistan>>>

source
tell me if its wrong.

Before becoming a spokesperson for Baluch people, you might want to speak to our own Baluch on PDF and see what they think of India. Cheers.

I've a few Baloch followers on twitter, with whom i've occasionally communicated. I've maintained a safe distance from them because i didnt want to get tagged into all the graphic pics which they keep posting, those are ostensibly the region. So I'm not as dilettante to the subject as you assume.

 

[Tipu7]

Tough love: Modi’s raising Balochistan does not mean he has abandoned hopes of a historic peace with Pakistan
August 16, 2016, 2:00 am IST Sreeram Sundar Chaulia in TOI Edit Page | Edit Page, India | TOI

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s open acknowledgement during the marquee occasion of Independence Day that he is receiving communications and wishes from the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Pakistan-occupied-Kashmir (Azad Kashmir) is a combative policy shift based on the logic that public counterattack is the best defence.

It reflects a core nationalistic position in India that the latest prolonged spell of disturbances in the Indian-administered Kashmir Valley is linked to deliberate instigation by the Pakistani state. By mentioning three regions inside Pakistan that have active grievances and separatist movements, Modi is effectively turning the tables and sending a warning to Islamabad that New Delhi can unleash tit-for-tat manoeuvres.

The more Pakistan campaigns internationally for the ‘freedom struggle’ in Kashmir Valley and acts as a self-appointed guardian of the rights of Kashmiris under so-called ‘Indian imperialism’, the greater the Indian Prime Minister’s resolve to put the ball back in the Pakistani court.

A definite new regional policy is on the anvil. This is revealed by Modi’s declaration on August 12 that “Part of kashmir under Pak is ours.” He added that his government would “take initiatives to develop contact with citizens of Azad Kashmir settled abroad” and also bring human rights violations in Balochistan to global attention. His remark that Pakistan was “killing its own people by fighter jets” and that it had no business preaching independence for Kashmir signifies that India will now purposefully escalate the costs of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and unrest in Kashmir Valley.

What the Indian Prime Minister did in a primetime national address on Independence Day is to drop hints of a pushback policy that may have numerous levers ranging from overt to covert. For years, Pakistan has been accusing India of fomenting insurgents in Balochistan via Afghanistan and Iran. India has plausibly denied involvement in the affairs of this restive western province of Pakistan, where a secular and resilient guerrilla rebellion has been raging on grounds of unfair exploitation of gas wealth and ethnic discrimination against minority tribes.

The scorched-earth counter-insurgency by the Pakistani army in Balochistan has killed tens of thousands of people in a “secret dirty war” with hardly any neutral witnesses or media presence permitted in the arid mountainous region. The degree of suppression of Baloch voices has drawn comparisons to the genocidal war waged by the Pakistani military against Bengali-speaking people of erstwhile East Pakistan in 1971.

While the level of the popular anger and secessionism in Gilgit and Azad Kashmir is not as intense as in Balochistan, these territories which used to be part of undivided Jammu & Kashmir before 1947 do seethe against their absence of autonomy and the second-class treatment they receive from Pakistan’s Punjabi elites who have repeatedly failed to win the trust of minorities.

To observe closely and to factor into strategy the alienation and resentment that the people of Balochistan, Gilgit and Azad Kashmir nurse toward Islamabad is natural for Modi, who aims to integrate Kashmir Valley fully into the national mainstream by elbowing out Pakistani interference. It is a geopolitical imperative to hold a card against a neighbouring country which is not altering its hostile behaviour.

Modi is not a militaristic hawk who revels in triggering a vicious cycle of insurgencies that could dismember Pakistan. His basic instinct is still liberal and he hopes that Pakistan will eventually join him in his mission to integrate South Asia for economic cooperation and shared prosperity. In the first two years of his reign, he staked a lot of his personal capital and tried to talk economic interdependence and initiate dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart, Nawaz Sharif.

But sadly, as the captured Pakistani terrorist Bahadur Ali recently confessed, the deep state of the Pakistani military-intelligence complex has reactivated its proxies to “take advantage of” the tensions in Kashmir Valley and restart the full-scale ‘freedom movement’ of the 1990s. Sensing this danger, Modi’s statecraft is shifting gear to squeeze Pakistan into a corner until it realises its folly.

Modi’s fervent desire to “turn the course of history” with Pakistan remains a noble one, but the path to that optimistic turn may be paved by the dark passage of tough love.



@Star Wars @Butchcassidy @kaykay @hellfire @anant_s




***********************************
My opinion:
Brace up Pakistan! If you can do it, we can do it too. You bring up Kashmir and we will add fuel to Balochistan issue- this is exactly what Modi meant, may be in more brusque words.
His reaction should not be a surprise to many, as this was in the offing. Pakistan's response to the attacks on our base, its reaction to the small scale violence in the valley, snubbing our HM during the SAARC meeting- it was asking for this kinda reaction.
Pakistan is at the verge of getting a new COAS, and going by Pakistan's history army has always maintained a control over the democratically elected government. Whoever the new COAS be, war is unlikely since Pakistan is in the process of weeding out "bad" terrorists.
So it has 2 options, one is to stop "showing" support to the rogue elements within India and accept the offer of peace. Two,get ready to face the music at all the international level conferences. Let me add, terror attacks around the world have only added to Pakistan's woes. Before it buckles under the international pressure, Pakistan should take up the first option and cooperate.
Peace!

Remember when I told you that Kashmir is "mismatched" part of India forced to join with it? A cancer which will spread in entire India ultimately bringing it's death?
There was complete "peace" in Kashmir when I mentioned these words.
Look at now in Kashmir, it's complete fess & blood shed.
People abusing India and demanding freedom . Something which will bring great trouble for India in coming years. Unlike Pakistan, India cannot afford explosions in its streets every day......

 

[Arsalan]

Somehow what I find more a pity is a supposed Think Tank, trolling post after post on assumed and trumped up 'facts' and unable to post references when asked by yours truly for eight times toll date and you failing to address the same.

That, sir, is a biased approach of another Think Tank - an approach bereft of logic is ignored and a counter equally idiotic and bereft of logic is commented on.

Reminds me of you once telling me that I should pipe down on the nationalism. May I urge the same at your end and equally keen observation for a similarly useless observation of the member serially as quoted by me?

Report it, or you don't have access to that report button?
As for the nationalism and biased approach, may be you should think why i advised you and not others,,, and do so while not thinking that it is a Pakistani members saying something to an Indian, do so once and MAY BE!!!

You and many other people mention think tank and mods like they are some out of the world creatures which is not the case. They are promoted to this post by a panel and perhaps there is some reason that they are selected and you or some others are not (remember that there are Indian members too in the panel) so i always suggest that rather than venting out some frustration with statements and jibes like these it is better to see and correct where one if getting things wrong. I include myself in this as well so please for once do not take this as a Pakistani insulting some India it is just a members advising another.

P.S. the post you are talking about, the one i quoted was nothing by sarcasm and that too of the worst kind. It was not even fun! The post by @haviZsultan it was posted in response of, i do not see such sarcasm in that, you did so may be based on some previous posts by the same members but i would suggest you use "report" button in such case rather than doing what you did.

 

[Levina]

That, sir, is a biased approach of another Think Tank - an approach bereft of logic is ignored and a counter equally idiotic and bereft of logic is commented on.

Did you see me skip that post?
Let me tell you, i've spent 3 good years of my life in Lucknow (and most prolly you too). So i do know HavizSultan's post went tangential to the topic of this thread when he mentioned Lucknowis.
Haviz, as i know him is fun. He had suggested me a few places in sharjah where i can get good falooda.
Arsalan too is one one of the most unbiased TTAs...oops TTC (he had corrected me once lol) on the forum.

Just gets me wondering had we been not warring neighbors, we could have had great discussions without having the need to split and slice each other (almost!).
Alas!

Remember when I told you that Kashmir is "mismatched" part of India forced to join with it? A cancer which will spread in entire India ultimately bringing it's death?
There was complete "peace" in Kashmir when I mentioned these words.
Look at now in Kashmir, it's complete fess & blood shed.
People abusing India and demanding freedom . Something which will bring great trouble for India in coming years. Unlike Pakistan, India cannot afford explosions in its streets every day......

Mr. Nostradamus, I will be on a flight to India tonight. Do you think it will land safely?
I mean, seriously.
You have predicted the Kashmir issue and the explosions so well, i really want you to consider my case.

 

[Arsalan]

Did you see me skip that post?
Let me tell you, i've spent 3 good years of my life in Lucknow (and most prolly you too). So i do know HavizSultan's post went tangential to the topic of this thread when he mentioned Lucknowis.
Haviz, as i know him is fun. He had suggested me a few places in sharjah where i can get good falooda.
Arsalan too is one one of the most unbiased TTAs...oops TTC (he had corrected me once lol) on the forum.

Just gets me wondering had we been not warring neighbors, we could have had great discussions without having the need to split and slice each other (almost!).
Alas!

Thus the post:

You know what, THEY do worry!! They worry because if the problem is resolved the relations will improve rapidly!! You have a huge Muslim population, we share some cultural values, there are many differences but there are commonalities as well. So once we settle Kashmir problem and then do not poke our noses where they do not belong, the relations will improve. So THEY do care!! They worry in fact!! The problem is OUR PEOPLE who do not realize this simple fact. This is the reason i always say that the Kashmir issue have to be resolved and it will be India, Pakistan and Kashmiris who will sit together and resolve it, it wont happen by itself! It haven't for 70 off years!! This is one of those problems where delaying tactics would work!

We need to resolve those problems, those differences and it is US (no not united states wala US) who will have to do it! NO ONE ELSE!!

Remember when I told you that Kashmir is "mismatched" part of India forced to join with it? A cancer which will spread in entire India ultimately bringing it's death?
There was complete "peace" in Kashmir when I mentioned these words.
Look at now in Kashmir, it's complete fess & blood shed.
People abusing India and demanding freedom . Something which will bring great trouble for India in coming years. Unlike Pakistan, India cannot afford explosions in its streets every day......

Actually, Pakistan cannot afford those explosions either!

 

[Roybot]

Remember when I told you that Kashmir is "mismatched" part of India forced to join with it? A cancer which will spread in entire India ultimately bringing it's death?
There was complete "peace" in Kashmir when I mentioned these words.
Look at now in Kashmir, it's complete fess & blood shed.
People abusing India and demanding freedom . Something which will bring great trouble for India in coming years. Unlike Pakistan, India cannot afford explosions in its streets every day......

Your terrorists don't scare us. We have been sending them to unmarked graves for decades!

 

[Levina]

We need to resolve those problems, those differences and it is US (no not united states wala US) who will have to do it! NO ONE ELSE!!

Arsalan,
I did read this post of your's>>>

You and many other people mention think tank and mods like they are some out of the world creatures which is not the case. They are promoted to this post by a panel and perhaps there is some reason that they are selected and you or some others are not (remember that there are Indian members too in the panel) so i always suggest that rather than venting out some frustration with statements and jibes like these it is better to see and correct where one if getting things wrong. I include myself in this as well so please for once do not take this as a Pakistani insulting some India it is

The kashmir solution- what is it that we expect?
Dont Pakistan and India both have kashmir? Lets call it West and East kashmir, respectively.
India has a huge muslim population, as you know it, we have just as many muslims in our country as you do in Pakistan. So ppl of Kashmir(only the valley which has a muslim majority) have no reason to feel threatened. I do not think they feel threatened, its just that many here claim so.
Once again, what solution do we expect?
I expect ISI to stop funding radicalism in the valley. ISI was caught with its hands in the cookie jar many times.
When the funding dries up, the protests will go down too.
Balochistan, is something that most of the Indians werent even aware of, until Modi mentioned it on 15th aug. So you dont have to worry that India would poke its nose into your internal affairs.

 

[Tipu7]

Your terrorists don't scare us. We have been sending them to unmarked graves for decades!

You can no longer deny reality by blaming every thing on hypothetical border crossing "terrorists"
As I said before, and I am saying again. Cancer exist with in India, now it's showing symptoms. And you people are ignoring those symptoms by painting a thick layer of make up on your body. But inside, it's killing you. If India didn't get rid of Kashmir in time, it will bring civil war in India. With Muslims, Sikh on one side, and Hindus on other.
India cannot survive a civil war of few months .......
Pakistan have nothing to do with situation. We are busy from recovering from damages we suffered in past decade thanks to our peace loving neighbours. So if Pakistan will respond, then It will respond only to certain limit. Unlike Indian invasion on East Pakistan, we have no plan of repeating such event......

Actually, Pakistan cannot afford those explosions either!

We were hit, we survived. Now it's recovery time.....
In case of India, I doubt ......

Mr. Nostradamus, I will be on a flight to India tonight. Do you think it will land safely?
I mean, seriously.
You have predicted the Kashmir issue and the explosions so well, i really want you to consider my case.

I predicted rise of Kashmir Movement which will bring bloodshed and ultimately severe friction with in India.
I told you that time to mark my words, and you Said "Marked".
Now look at Kashmir and compare it with my words year ago.
The post about Kashmir being cancer to India itself, ...... Remember?