I have been to two Red Flags.
At Red Flag, missiles are given the benefit of the doubt, meaning that if you achieved radar lock, you have a 'kill'. In the real world, the probability of kill (pk) comes into play and your odds of success -- a real missile hit -- dramatically decreases.
This does not mean you can take these Red Flag simulated kills as nothing more than statistical gimmickry. Precisely because we understood this, aircrews goes to great lengths to place themselves as as advantageous positions as possible so that when the ACMI pod data are analyzed, everyone will come to the conclusion that even under real world conditions, that would be a real missile kill.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_combat_maneuvering_instrumentation
There are newer hardware and software today, but the entire system is still often calls ACMI, as how it was originally designed to be.
So under real world conditions, we would place ourselves in as advantageous positions as possible to replicate those simulated successes.
This is why foreign pilots always came away from Red Flag stunned. The emphasis is
NOT one-to-one combat. Red Flag is not about individual heroics like how the movie Top Gun portrayed pilots. Red Flag is %90 teamwork. Basic Fighter Maneuvers (BFM) and Air Combat Maneuvers (ACM) are not discarded, the Aggressors are at Nellis for that, but the philosophy of Red Flag is that the individual dogfight should be the fight of last resort. Red Flag is about air combat tactics, as in how to position your entire flight, not just you, in such a position that the enemy fighters either die or fail in their original mission at minimum cost to you.
Red Flag is about how US airpower have been steadily moving away from the Hollywood glamour portrayal of the fighter pilot. In an odd way, Red Flag views the individual dogfight as a failure, in other words, dogfighting is time consuming, fuel draining, and that
YOU can be better used elsewhere in the war.
If what they found for the F-35 at Red Flag to be this overwhelming, I feel sorry for the next air force that will face the F-22 and F-35.