Genghis khan1
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There are lots of factors.one factor is diplomacy.in any future war,we can't predict number of enemies and number of allies.things are changing fast.i believe China is our only hope but I believe they will not intervene.they can provide us weapons but will never intervene.this condition is against us.india have many friends and Russia is old friend of India.
We can decimate nearby indian bases but going deep isn't possible.we lack everything,I mean number of fighter jets,number of submarines and even number of soldiers.this situation is not good for pakistan.pakistan didn't pay attention to Navy but now after gwadar,we need big Navy and presence in indian ocean.right now, situation supports India and we shouldn't start a war now.may be sometime later but not now.i think we really need China in this game.with involvement of friendly countries,we can easily defeat India and even annex Kashmir but I think we trusted ourselves and we think that we can defeat them.we can't.they have numerical superiority.
Planning to involve China in battlefield was probably not considered.pakistan can fight well but for how long? 10 days,2 months? We will collapse and indians know this fact.they call Kashmir bilateral because they don't want to involve China in this disputed.trust me,they fear Chinese involvement in any conflict.nuclear missiles is the end of this region but even with nuclear missiles,there is no guarantee that we can destroy entire India.india is big and deep.this is perfect condition for any country.all our airbases and military installations are the primary indian Target.we can't rule out their ability to retaliate.they have almost 270 su-30. We don't stand a chance.we need time and proper strategy.if we want Kashmir,we must involve China.india is a big country.we must be realistic.passion is good but facing reality is a different thing.if we really care about decimating India,we should involve friends in this game otherwise there is no chance.
There isn’t much guessing, in military science and war tactics. Place their assets against your assets. You know you capability, depending on your intelligence capability , you should (more and less) know their assets and it’s capabilities. Run multiple scenario and simulation. Cover every conceivable scenario.
Your naval, air and armor engineers will give you the life cycle of each equipment before it break down. Their replacement schedule and cost. Your PHDs in stats and maths will (After computing all the battlefield data) crunch down numbers, with the input from war generals, gives you exact probabilities of your wining or losing in diff scenarios.