There are several things that I would like to point out in the debate between Pakistani and Indian confrontation. Much attention is given to the possibility of nuclear strikes but there are several features that think tanks ignore.
Firstly, by the principle of mutually assured destruction (MAD) it can easily be seen that both Pakistan and India have the ability to to give each other the fatal blow: Indians who think India is wide enough to abosrb the full fallout of Pakistan's nuclear capability need to reed up on their science as to what a nuclear weapon does. Pakistanis who think that India will not answer to their provocation need to read up on Indain politics, the zealots over there are just as passionate about nuking you as you are of them. Thus, there is a significant number of people in power who do not want a nuclear strike.
Secondly, the scenario of one day the Pakistani PM/Army chief waking up and deciding to go on a Jihad and wipe out India by pulling the trigger out of his pocket and pushing it (couldn't resist) as portrayed by many worried Indians of the 'Islamic terror' is highly improbable. Despite how we look many of us realise that the nuclear weapon is our last resort, focus on the last.
In any scenario there will be an escalation of events and I would point out to the 2002-3 and our most recent confrontation across the border the exact same pattern repeated: India and Pakistan mobalise their armies on the border, PAF, IAF, PN, IN put on high alert and then Western capital is pulled out from India badly affecting her economy and bringing the situation to more calmer grounds. It is possible that India will focus more on being independent of Western investments but that will take time and India, unlike Pakistan, is already engaged in an economic competition with China, any war which is most likely to last not more than 20-25 days will damage the Indian economy as India knows that in a war of attrition it can beat Pakistan by taking more losses but Pakistan focus on more asymmetrical warfare in terms of air and naval strikes even if the IN and IAF are able to subdue PAF and PN the probable damage that they can cause will affect Indian economy much more. This might seem very stretched but this thinking is present see Pakistan is a challenger state and thus its main strategy is to do as much damage as possible to Indian assets.
Thirdly, the Pakistani defence thinking has totally shited: cadets from LC-122 onwards have been trained with militants as their enemy not India. This is important to note: the prestige in the Pakistani army now is to the man serving in the 'Red Zone' i.e. the Terrorist affected areas whereas prior to LC-122 it was to officer serving at the border and Kashmir most probable that the next generation of higher ups of the military that will rise will be of individuals who have not seen the Indian as their enemy but the Talibs. So the Pakistani desire to engineer low level resistance against India is going down, I am working on that article and will post it by next week.
although it depends upon the Air speed and direction, IIRC it can spread out of lahore if the air is blowing West and within Indian territory If it is blowing eastward!
