Pakistan risks sanctions over Iran gas deal: WSJ

[KRAIT]

If that happens then we'll try to get an Iranian pipeline through Central Asia instead, like these ones:
Kazakhstan–China oil pipeline - Wikipedia
Central Asia–China gas pipeline - Wikipedia

China already has many options. Even Iran-Afghanistan-China can happen too as an alternative.

 

[muse]

If that happens then we'll try to get an Iranian pipeline through Central Asia instead, like these ones:

Kazakhstan–China oil pipeline - Wikipedia

Central Asia–China gas pipeline - Wikipedia

Yes, certainly, but where would that leave Pakistan? I think it's a lot more complicated for Pakistan - the kinds of violence we are seeing in Pakistan has the potential for a nth fold increase if Pakistan should once again be under sanction - Already the Iranian economy has suffered tremendous damage and it is a more sizable economy than that of Pakistan

 

[A1Kaid]

China and India are already in exceptions list. US will arm twist Pakistan but it will be early to say what will be the Pakistan govt.s stance.

US is also funding few energy projects in Pakistan.

India is not in exceptions list, you may not know the position of the Obama administration then.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China already has many options. Even Iran-Afghanistan-China can happen too as an alternative.

We are lucky that we have a significant land-border with Central Asia so it is easier to set up all these pipelines.

Yes, certainly, but where would that leave Pakistan? I think it's a lot more complicated for Pakistan - the kinds of violence we are seeing in Pakistan has the potential for a nth fold increase if Pakistan should once again be under sanction - Already the Iranian economy has suffered tremendous damage and it is a more sizable economy than that of Pakistan

In the scenario you presented, we would but cut off from the pipeline. So we wouldn't really have a choice in the matter, right? We'd be forced to go through Central Asia, but we've done it before.

 

[Edevelop]

They can't sanction China at any cost. China knows that well.
Can some one tell major exports of Pakistan and their customers in US and EU ?

Can Pakistan's economy handle Economic sanctions especially now ?

Turkey and China are also helping Pakistan to get into NSG waiver through back door. Both nations are the ones who are helping Pakistan.

The world is changing. The West is dying and countries are no longer relying on them. China, India, Turkey, and Middle East etc are booming. A country like Pakistan is bordered or in the same continent as them. Our people are desperate to be in the same league. Leaders like Imran khan and Shahbaz Sharif are considered favorites to lead in that direction. They will do their best to work economy.

 

[KRAIT]

India is not in exceptions list, you may not know the position of the Obama administration then.

U.S. Extends Iran-Oil Sanctions Exceptions for Nine Nations - Bloomberg

But India has reduced the dependency in case a wa breaks out, we may face economic downturn.

 

[muse]

In the scenario you presented, we would but cut off from the pipeline. So we wouldn't really have a choice in the matter, right? We'd be forced to go through Central Asia, but we've done it before.

Such a pipeline already exists - China built it from Turkmenistan to China - also the Iran have already built pipeline to connect to Turkmenistan

 

[KRAIT]

Yes, certainly, but where would that leave Pakistan? I think it's a lot more complicated for Pakistan - the kinds of violence we are seeing in Pakistan has the potential for a nth fold increase if Pakistan should once again be under sanction - Already the Iranian economy has suffered tremendous damage and it is a more sizable economy than that of Pakistan

They want that Pakistan to rather take TAPI pipeline. US says that for Pakistan we are providing an alternative. That's their argument.

Since China and India also have stakes in Afghanistan, they will play along. Stable Afghanistan is what China and India wants.

This puts Pakistan in dilemma. What to pick ?

Iran and face US and EU Sanctions OR

TAPI and leave Iran alone pushing it closer to India.

 

[muse]

The world is changing. The West is dying and countries are no longer relying on them. China, India, Turkey, and Middle East etc are booming. A country like Pakistan is bordered or in the same continent as them. Our people are desperate to be in the same league. Leaders like Imran khan and Shahbaz Sharif are considered favorites to lead in that direction. They will do their best to work economy.

That may be so, but they are not dead yet and not for some time -- Pakistan on the other hand, well, lets just say they are experiencing some "kum zoori"

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Such a pipeline already exists - China built it from Turkmenistan to China - also the Iran have already built pipeline to connect to Turkmenistan

Yep, that was the second link I posted.

The more volatility and instability there is, the more contingency plans we need.

Like you said, what if the USA comes in and says that Pakistan can't link the pipeline to China?

 

[KRAIT]

Yep, that was the second link I posted.
The more volatility and instability there is, the more contingency plans we need.
Like you said, what if the USA comes in and says that Pakistan can't link the pipeline to China?

Well US is going to put every trick to pressure Pakistan. I don'know why people think US and EU are dying, they are still a major ally of eastern nations and still have serious power except over Russia and China.

Now there are three key players -
US led EU.
China
Russia-India

Afghanistan and Pakistan are on crossroad. Iran already suffering due to this imbalance.

 

[Yogi]

China is going to buy Oil from Iran and will get it through Gwadar. Will the 'next superpower' get sanctions ?

China, India n many other nations do still buy oil n gas from Iran(although a reduced quantity) but they have been giving exemption from sanction by the US but Pak has not been given any exemption n on top of that US forces r on retreat from Afghan n once they r gone Pak will lose even its last chance of bargain.

Hope u got the point...

 

[muse]

Like you said, what if the USA comes in and says that Pakistan can't link the pipeline to China?

It is not saying that, not in so many words - Because Pakistan choose to speak with many voices and because Pakistan choose to be insecure within and outside it's borders, Pakistan will be left with little choice but to talk big and act small.

 

[A1Kaid]

U.S. Extends Iran-Oil Sanctions Exceptions for Nine Nations - Bloomberg

But India has reduced the dependency in case a wa breaks out, we may face economic downturn.

Oh ok you're right India is in exceptions list, is it full exception or limited exception? If you know...

As for Pakistan, Pakistan should call Secretary of State John Kerry tell him to give exception to Pakistan, best option.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

It is not saying that, not in so many words - Because Pakistan choose to speak with many voices and because Pakistan choose to be insecure within and outside it's borders, Pakistan will be left with little choice but to talk big and act small.

Confucian cultures tend to be quite risk-averse, for example the East Asian countries have some of the highest savings rates on the planet, and are less likely to buy things using loans.

We can't put ourselves in a position where the USA can scrap our projects with a word. We'll build contingency plans upon contingency plans to make sure we have a plethora of options available at all times.