Because of the possibility of sanctions, and to counter the Rafale, PAF needs an interim bird. Here are my thoughts on why the MiG-35 could perhaps be suitable.
Political:
With the US aligning with India and shifting production of F-16s there, and with Israel now helping India, Pakistan has to make necessary calculations in its geo-strategic posture. Making a major deal with Russia would give Pakistan breathing room in dealing with India.
Economic:
If PAF is looking to counter the Rafale and does not have the budget to purchase J-10s for 60 million per piece, the MiG-35 offers some serious capabilities at a reasonable price. Most importantly, it could be engineered to have the ultimate commonality not only with the JFT but also with Azm.
A MiG-35 frame rigged with Chinese weapons, radar, avionics, that are basically the same but a more powerful version of what will go into Block 3, would give PAF a commonality of most major LRUs and provide a plane with minimal logistics headache.
What could a reasonable price look like? Airframe with engines, FBW, everything related to radar, electronics, missiles, etc Chinese. $20 million + $15 million = $35million per bird is a possibility. With minimal setup costs, because of engine and electronics commonality with the JF-17.
Strategic:
The MiG-35 could provide parts for the Azm project, which will be of the same weight class (given twin RD-33s). This means PAF could gain parts manufacture strategically that can be used for the Azm project. Additionally, they could get engine MRO and parts manufacturing, giving greater independence and local capability in the long term. With all three future aircraft of the PAF - JFT, Azm and MiG-35 using the same engines, this would make a lot of logistic sense for the PAF.
Technology
The MiG-35 is a solid airframe, and the engineering and aerodynamics are brilliant. The main downside of it are the less than par electronics and weapons. The airframe could be modified to PAF requirements, and with Chinese electronics similar to the Block 3, would give PAF a rough equivalent to the Rafale, at a bargain price.
Modern BVR air combat requires high altitude and high speed performance (hi-hi), which allows the kinematic performance of the missile to have great range, speed and accuracy. The JFT does not compare well in this regard with the Rafale armed with Meteor. With the F-16s possibly being figured out and countered via Israel, and the Rafale even outperforming the F-16s, a new platform is critical for the kind of limited warfare seen on the 27th Feb.
The MiG-35 has kinematics and weapons carriage capability similar to the Rafale, but lags far behind in the electronics, sensor fusion and avionics departments. With a Chinese AESA and assorted equipment, a Chinese LRAAM, the playing field gets evened out.
Environmental
The next limited air war may happen in the flashpoint of Kashmir, with Indians looking to use Rafales in the same way PAF did. With a range and kinematics advantage. However, with MiG-35s in the equation, India's attempt to turn the tables would be thwarted.
Legal
CAATSA may cause problems for such a deal to go through.
Hope you enjoyed my analysis.
