Smaller but Capable: How Pakistan Air Force Deters Indian Air Force

[Muji.Iqbal]

LoL no. Pakistan cannot afford twin engine jets.

The Chinese want $$$ and access to Arabian Sea. Nobody is in for anything else.

Pakistan’s establishment should come out a rentier state mentality. I know the Generals want commercial properties in Pakistan and mansions in Texas. They need to snap out of this sh!tshow.

I agree China wants the Gwadar and Karachi ports. Agreed with you 100%.

But we could use twin engine variants for our domestic industry.

 

[CallSignMaverick]

Your jag/Mirage 2000/MIG 29/MIG 21 are still getting OLD dude

I know, but money isn't going to be a constraint for India. Even with a slow and disappointing pace of modernisation, we have a lot of money to spend on it.

Otoh Pakistan is suffering an economic and balance of payments crisis, and couple that with the fact that Pakistani military is more than half the size of Indian military with an economy 11-12 times smaller with this gap rapidly increasing. So to modernise completely you'll have to invest over 5 times more than your capacity.

 

[Muji.Iqbal]

LoL no. Pakistan cannot afford twin engine jets.

The Chinese want $$$ and access to Arabian Sea. Nobody is in for anything else.

Pakistan’s establishment should come out a rentier state mentality. I know the Generals want commercial properties in Pakistan and mansions in Texas. They need to snap out of this sh!tshow.

Exactly Pakistani generals need to buy properties in China instead lol.

 

[Signalian]

These are complementary to the actual weapons being used in a conflict. They can assist but can’t take over the role of primary weapon systems.

Yes they can and they will.

Cyber warfare can do wonders before a conventional war even begins, which means it’s the deciding factor.

 

[VkdIndian]

Cyber warfare can do wonders before a conventional war even begins, which means it’s the deciding factor.

It can, but no country can rely on this as primary source of offence. Other side may be equally or better equipped since these capabilities are likely to be hidden deeply. If it works well then actual hardware wouldn’t be required to be used otherwise it would get down to boots on ground.

Hardware can’t be ignored. US and China wouldn’t have been trying to produce latest hardware if cyber warfare could take care of everything.

 

[Signalian]

It can, but no country can rely on this as primary source of offence. Other side may be equally or better equipped since these capabilities are likely to be hidden deeply. If it works well then actual hardware wouldn’t be required to be used otherwise it would get down to boots on ground.

Hardware can’t be ignored. US and China wouldn’t have been trying to produce latest hardware if cyber warfare could take care of everything.

you don’t know much about digital warfare and how it can incapacitate the foe. Do some reading on it.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

It's not important what you've become, it's important what you will be - A Turkish saying

As for the PAF, it's alignment with the Turkish military industrial complex in the form of cooperation and coproduction at all levels would make it future proof Insha'Allah....

 

[VkdIndian]

you don’t know much about digital warfare and how it can incapacitate the foe.

You are right. I am no expert. But basic facts can be deduced by even a layman.

With your logic, Paksitan should stop procuring all hardware and shift to digital warfare completely. Hardware asymmetry is visible and quantifiable. But, digital is not and can‘t be compared and worked upon.

Digital is always hidden and both sides may be equally capable in it.

Digital warfare might paralyse an adversary completely, but, what if it is unable to? Can’t adversary do the same to you?

As a think tank analyst you do surprise sometimes, with lack of depth in your arguments.

 

[indushek]

Via Tipu7

In modern warfare, without control over skies, the likelihood of a successful military operation remains far-fetched. In the past, air power was primarily gauged by the numerical strength and ability to employ brute force in combat. But modern air power has become a function of synergizing combat and support assets for exertion of graduated firepower for undermining adversary in psychological and kinetic domains. The efficiency of modern air power is chiefly based upon: network centricity via sensor fusion for comprehensive situation awareness; precise and stand-off strike capability; look first and shoot first advantage; and the efficient employment of electromagnetic prowess.

The air power plays centerline role in Indo-Pak strategic environment. Being a smaller force with limited resources, Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has traditionally followed offensive defense posture. The notion behind this posture is to achieve psychological dominance over the adversary in the earliest phase of conflict to accomplish escalation control. At a later stage, to maintain credible A2/AD envelope over own air space to degrade enemy’s air, land and naval offensive operations. This includes efficient employment of available forces, high level of readiness, and progressive improvements in its doctrinal framework with respect to emerging technologies.

PAF is currently structured around a compound fleet of modern and previous generation combat aircrafts augmented by an ample number of force multipliers, i.e. AEW&Cs and EW/ELINT aircrafts. Historically, PAF has emphasized on the policy of procurement of high end assets from foreign sources and supplementing it with indigenous projects to constitute the bulk of forces. For example, F-16 Fighting Falcons, (AM/BM and C/D configuration) continues to manifest force’s amalgam of cutting edge technology and diverse experience. This has been augmented by recent procurement of J-10C Vigorous Dragon from China. J-10C has allowed PAF to employ new high-end Chinese weapons and sensor suite including PL-10 HOBS missile, PL-15 dual pulse BVR missile, Infrared Search and Track (IRST) and Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar.

Meanwhile, the joint production of Jf-17 Thunder program has contemplated advantages of its own. These advantages include: the aversion of the obsoleteness crisis by replacing outdated aircrafts and diffusion of modern capabilities to the entirety of fleet without outstretching the budgetary limitations. Currently, Jf-17 Block-III is the most capable version and has introduced a new set of technologies like AESA radar, and next generation weapon air-to-air missiles, and a host of precise and stand-off air to ground munitions. In parallel, PAF is also keen to retain its advantage in unmanned aerial systems. Beside acquiring home-grown drones of varying capability, PAF is procuring cutting edge Akinci HALE UCAV and combat-proven TB-02 MALE UCAV from Turkey.

The real strength of PAF, however, is represented by its comparatively abundant fleet of air borne early warning control (AEW&C) aircrafts. PAF operates almost dozen AEW&C aircrafts of Chinese (ZDK-03) and Swedish (Erieye) origin. These eyes in the sky provide sustained intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) and command & control capabilities. The popularization of AEW&Cs and EW/ELINT platforms, and growing jointness of all assets into a synergized force, has rapidly consolidated PAF into a force which can credibly avert all levels of aggression by the Indian counterparts.

Indian Air Force (IAF), being a numerically superior force with better combat stamina, is postured for a prolonged multi-front and attrition-oriented warfare. This posture, however, now has limited feasibility, particularly after overt nuclearization of India and Pakistan. Unlike PAF, which is entirely structured against India-centric threats, IAF has two major fronts to deal with simultaneously. The likelihood of a two-front war, particularly after the recent Indo-China military crisis, has overstretched IAF resources. As a result, despite being a more resourceful force, IAF remains in consistent state of struggle for overcoming its threat perceptions.

IAF needs minimum 42 combat squadrons to effectively counter two-front war threat. Currently, it has only 32 combat squadrons operational. IAF has recently raised two squadrons of highly capable Rafale-F3R combat aircrafts from France. Weapons like Meteor ramjet BVR missile, Scalp air-launch cruise missile (ALCM), and sensor suite including RBE2-AA AESA radar, OSF optoelectronics system, and Spectra EW suite, have added new sophisticated capabilities in IAF. But the bulk of its fighter fleet is still based on Soviet origin aircrafts - majority of which suffer from serviceability issues and barely meet benchmarks of modern warfare.

IAF ambitious drive for acquiring 114 medium multirole combat aircraft (MMCA-2) is also yet to materialize. Additionally, delays in LCA Tejas program have compelled IAF to retain vintage MiG-21 Bison aircrafts which are obsolete and known for high crash rate. After retiring MiG-21 fleet in 2025, IAF would start phasing out Jaguar strike aircrafts. Frequent delays in development of domestic aircrafts and procurement of foreign fighters have strained IAF modernization efforts. If IAF plans regarding Tejas Mk1A and MMRCA-2 failed to materialize timely, the under strength IAF would be facing obsoleteness crisis in coming years.

In drones, situation is not good either. Although India’s domestic drone programs have achieved some degree of success, but IAF is yet to employ any MALE UCAV. India has recently signed $3 billion deal for 31 MQ-9B drones from United States. But IAF will get only 8 drones which are far from adequate to meet its operational requirements.

IAF has attempted to overcome voids in its air defenses by procuring surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems. Recently, Russian origin S-400 long-range air defense system has received massive appreciation from Indian defense circles. In theory, air defense systems serve as potent air-denial asset. But in practice, these systems have compatibility limitations and are very hard to employ in contested airspace. Plus, these systems can also be overwhelmed by adversary’s sophisticated SEAD-DEAD (Suppression and Destruction of Enemy Air Defense) capability.

The Operation Swift Retort can be contemplated as a litmus test of IAF-PAF comparative capabilities. In contrary to IAF which took weeks of preparatory measures for yet an unsuccessful strike in Balakot outskirts, the PAF mounted riposte within matter of hours. The Indian attempts to repel PAF retaliatory strikes yielded disastrous outcomes. IAF lost a Mig-21 Bison in air to air combat with PAF fighter aircrafts. Amidst fog of war, Indian Spyder SAM system shot down its own Mi-17 helicopter. Through-out the operation, the electromagnetic suppression imposed by PAF’s superior electronic warfare (EW) capabilities curbed the Indian command, control and communication, compelling IAF assets to disengage from combat. In a nutshell, during swift retort, PAF outclassed IAF in physical, electromagnetic and psychological spectrums.

The capability disparity, that IAF has repeatedly struggled to overcome, exists primarily due to three reasons: First, inability of IAF to proactively craft and timely implement the futuristic war fighting concepts; second, the technological deprivation in key aspects specifically in network centricity and electronic warfare; and finally, flawed force modernization approaches. The rapid depletion of combat squadrons, increasing force obsoleteness, inadequacy of force multipliers fleet, and delayed off-the shelf and indigenous procurements are the subsequent byproducts of these vulnerabilities.

In Indo-Pak strategic environment, balance of air power will continue to play an increasingly important role. The balance of air power determines whether deterrence will prevail or conflict will erupt. For sustainment of balance and retaining its credibility as a deterrent, PAF will have to ensure qualitative advantage against IAF.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1695410688645386569

At least for another decade, this article will hold good fully. I also have full appreciation and admiration for Pakistani's Armed forces clarity and speed in acquisitions, when it comes to Military platforms. Something India can learn from.

Having said that:

Steps are being taken correct our mistakes, but they can only show results a decade later. Can Pakistan continue this parity and better performance, through this decade or not, one has to wait.

Pakistan's economy has shrunk heavily (which doesn't mean it can't make a come back, but), and that will have its effects on Capex.

The technological disparity pointed out in the article, is very very important. However Pakistan's access to Western Equipment at least for now, seems to be on hold. Diplomacy has its own role and India has seen some success, in inducing this. In fact this is clearly showing results as Pakistan is only getting access to a Single Vendor China as of now. Yes the Turks are a second choice, however they will not provide platforms on loan.

A addon to above is that India has been slowly but surely is diverting its tech acquisitions on military front, towards the West. Again the results can't be seen immediately, but in a decade or two we will be having platforms at Western tech level (our own or collaborative or even direct Western platforms).

We are also again slowly building a local ecosystem of our own MIL, which will help in future to sustain a long drawn warfare. We don't have to face situations like Kargil, where GPS was shutoff to India by US when IAF wanted to target the heights.

Its true that we now face a two front war, given the heating up of our Eastern border. Point to note though is that, this has woken up our slumbering Babus. Along with infra buildup, platforms are being acquired or built locally and am sure these can work on both sides. I actually see this as a boon, cause sometimes rude shocks can give realizations that will benefit in future. Send one into action mode

A addon to above two front war, is that now Pakistan faces similar situation vis a vis Afghanistan. When War starts all bets are off, so India technically can use this second front concept against Pakistan and China as well. Steps are already being taken, where a technical team of India exists in Afghanistan. With regards to China we have joined Quad, and then started selling Brahmos for now (but others will come) to nations around China. Do unto them, what they do to you concept basically.

With regards to Network centric capability, Space assets are a major component of it. India has invested a lot here, and currently covers about 1500 KM area wise coming to NAVIC (Indian GPS, its said to be more accurate than GPS itself).

Results of decisions taken GOI and Indian Armed forces, taken in the past considering Geo political situations of that time can't be undone immediately. Consider India a Elephant or Tortoise, they are painfully slow but they still move step by step.

Lastly Wars aren't won by just Military action, it involves other aspects like Economy and Diplomacy. For whatever reasons our geo political importance on different forums globally, has grown a lot. Am sure our GOI and Military planners, will take into account all available options when the time comes.

Nuclear Option: This will come into play, when we are the aggressors. Yes Pakistan has developed Nuclear platforms to the minutest level, and might use them most probably when the IBG's role in.

However I wonder, if India will ever be the aggressor. Why should we when we can degrade Pakistan economically and diplomatically importance wise, and then use the players left in there to our benefit. With just few benefactors, for future will Pakistan risk isolating these few benefactors by using nukes? This is a entirely different topic, but on a Macro level hold full importance.

Taking inspiration from our Eastern neighbor's greatest War thinker

“The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

 

[indushek]

You are right. I am no expert. But basic aspects can be deduced by even a layman.

With your logic, Paksitan should stop procuring all hardware and shift to digital warfare completely. We are talking about asymmetry in hardware part. It is visible and quantifiable.

Digital is always hidden and both sides may be equally capable in it.

Digital warfare might paralyse an adversary completely, but, what if it is unable to? Can’t adversary do the same to you?

As a think tank analyst you do surprise sometimes, with lack of depth in your arguments.

Its a double edged sword truly

What is Cyberwarfare? | Definition from TechTarget

Explore goals, motivations behind cyberwarfare and cyber attacks against nation-states causing significant harm. Explore how it's done and defense strategies.

www.techtarget.com

Its basically attack on digital assets, but also involves fake news and propaganda.

However our GOI and Armed forces are working already

Initiatives Taken by Indian Government for Cyber Security

Cyber Surakshit Bharat, The Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC), Chief Information Security Officers, etc.

unacademy.com

National Cyber Security Strategy

In 2020, the National Cyber Security Strategy was conceptualised by the Data Security Council of India (DSCI) headed by Lt General Rajesh Pant. The report focused on 21 areas to ensure a safe, secure, trusted, resilient, and vibrant cyberspace for India.

www.drishtiias.com

Indian Army raising new units to counter China, Pak in cyber warfare: Report

The decision was taken during the Army Commanders Conference held in the third week of this month headed by Army Chief Gen Manoj Pande.

www.hindustantimes.com

Work is underway

 

[Abdul Rehman Majeed]

As I have always maintained that there was a just 1 mig21 and chopper down rest are simply lies from ISPR

IAF was ordering 12 SU-30MKIs when only 10 crashed.

 

[Olympus81]

Well by the looks of it on the 5th generation warfare front the good old Generals have already scored an own goal.

But let’s stick to air force related topic.

Historically when PAF has met IAF, it has come out on top. Deep down IAF knows this and will try every which way to close the gap.

 

[Neelo]

How did AF deter American drones?

 

[MastanKhan]

Why do you say that?

On 27 February 2019 as part of the Operation Swift Retort Pakistan's Airforce downed two SU-30MKIs and one MIG-21 fighters of the Indian Airforce and captured an Indian Airforce pilot alive.

Indian SU-30MKIs ran away with tails between their legs.



PAF's job is to take out the Indian Military Headquarters.

Hi,

That response by the IAF was partially staged---for Modi to get the Rafales on fastrak without going thru due process of procurement.

 

[Paji]

In India there is a saying, " Majboori ka naam Mahatma Gandhi..."