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The question really is whether it is now really a need for the 16s to the extent that we bend over for them. AESA is going to go on next batch of JFT and be operational in 2018-19. The Chinese pods will eventually reach maturity and other vendors aill come out with comparable products in 2-5 yrs. So why do we need the 16s. How relevant will they be in 2025. People here are harping on about deep sstrikes. Believe me there wont be àny deep strikes with aircrafts and missiles would be far more cheaper and much more accurate way of destroying enemy targets throughout India and indeed Pakistan.It would be much more prudent to do so then send assets and men on a suicidal mission. So acquisition sequence will probably be continue with JFT continue picking up a couple of squadrons of 16s as they come along 2016-8 but not pin too much hope if theyy dont havee J10s/11/6s as our security in case we desperately need more planes for the hi part of Hi lo combo
Iam fully aware of the function and value of F16s. The question is what does one do if we cant get any more. The options available to us in that case were what we discussed. I think at a national level we should give the impression of nonchalance re.the 16s. We do have options and the 16s are as much our need as it is of the US to keep us in its camp. The provision will depend of what weight each party gives to its case of provision or not of more F16s. I think we are dependent but not hopelessly so. However the US has a much more difficult balancing act in the region. They do need to keep us happy so in the long run we will acquire some older frames and MLU them but if we are not provided those we will not be hopelessly lost. This in a nutshell is what Iam trying to sayBottom line is F-16 is to PAF what F-15 is to USAF
And Jf-17 is to PAF what F-16 is to USAF
That's the best way to put it.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think PAF wants to frame its doctrine around a single aircraft.
Variety is not necessarily a bad thing. Tactics can be developed for a specific aircraft to take it down in air to air combat, this is where having multiple platform helps.
The question really is whether it is now really a need for the 16s to the extent that we bend over for them. AESA is going to go on next batch of JFT and be operational in 2018-19. The Chinese pods will eventually reach maturity and other vendors aill come out with comparable products in 2-5 yrs. So why do we need the 16s. How relevant will they be in 2025. People here are harping on about deep sstrikes. Believe me there wont be àny deep strikes with aircrafts and missiles would be far more cheaper and much more accurate way of destroying enemy targets throughout India and indeed Pakistan.It would be much more prudent to do so then send assets and men on a suicidal mission. So acquisition sequence will probably be continue with JFT continue picking up a couple of squadrons of 16s as they come along 2016-8 but not pin too much hope if theyy dont havee J10s/11/6s as our security in case we desperately need more planes for the hi part of Hi lo combo
Bottom line is F-16 is to PAF what F-15 is to USAF
And Jf-17 is to PAF what F-16 is to USAF
That's the best way to put it.
I understand what you're saying, but I don't think PAF wants to frame its doctrine around a single aircraft.
Variety is not necessarily a bad thing. Tactics can be developed for a specific aircraft to take it down in air to air combat, this is where having multiple platform helps.
Thank you @ Mark Sien and @ Fatman 17.Indeed. As it stands the PAF is largely focused on the development and induction of JF-17. The next big threshold will be Block-III and the point where PAF would be operating 150-200 JF-17s. That would probably be around 2020, at which money for another big platform purchase might be available.
But once the JF-17 program nears completion (at least in terms of PAF's procurement), I personally believe that the PAF will begin putting resources behind a next generation platform to produce at home. Not only that, but I can see PAC taking greater ownership of the development (albeit with the support of a foreign partner). This fighter would in the long-term replace JF-17. In the interim (mid-2020s), a few FC-31s could be procured.
The F-16s are a loose variable. I don't think the IAF Rafale threat is going to materialize before 2020, and by then going for FC-31 will be on the horizon. But a sudden influx of UAE Mirage 2000-9 in IAF might push PAF to acquire surplus F-16s and/or new-build Block-52+ or V.
Thank you @ Mark Sien and @ Fatman 17.
Iam glad you see the picture of our future acquisition as I do. There are 2 variables here which have been raised. Firstly the fickle nature of the Pak US relationship vis acquisition of newer/MLUed F16s which both of you have alluded to. The apt decription of a loose variable fits in the the context of our description very nicely. We are all happy that barring any sudden and drastic increase in IAF inventory we will probably sit tight and wait for the J31/equivalent.
Mark Sien the disposition of the UAE M2K9s at the moment does not seem to be going anywhere. With no firm plans (at least to my knowledge of further acquisitions by UAE ) I dont think UAE will dispose off these planes. Ithought the French had agreed to buy back these planes but there does not seem to be any firm plans on further acquisitions by UAE AF and as such for the moment they are likely to stay where they are. The IAF also probably does not want to go down that route as they generally want newer planes. So we can for the moment rest assured those will not come into the picture. There are excess M2K platforms available for sale by the french but if that was the plan IAF should have acquired them a long time ago. You may remember we were offered 59ex French AF M2K5s in 2002 with enough spares to last 20 yrs and we did not go for it(source muradk,and I think pshamim as well plus a few others). So what did not happen in 2002 for us could easily have happened for IAF but did not. So do you think this is likely to happen now. The o0tions realistically for IAF and I dare say good ones is to acquire the 36 Rafale and fill up the gap with the MKIs from USSR. NOWwhat happens after that remains a mystery for IAF. Do they go for 5th generation and from which vendor. Ithink F35 maybe an option as IAF had expressed reservations over the PAKFA. This is the step that needs to be seen and countered. I think we have the cat in the bag either way. If all goes to plan we continue as planned and economic climate stabilizing we should have F31/equivalent as our next acquisition. Further F16s remain our backup in case of any surprises.
Araz
DUS will not simply sell F-35 to India, regardless of how much money they can make. It will upset the balance in the region, unless China and Pakistan have both fielded similar level of stealth technology.
Since India is trying to occupy itself with the PAK-FA and AMCA, why would they want to go for F-35, when they didn't bother with the F-16IN or F-18 for the MMRCA?
In my view, the grant of a 126 jet order to a USA firm might have helped India get F-35 beyond 2020, but now it doesn't make any sense.
But then, IAF is known to field many different types in the same role......so screw logic.
D
I was just going by the press which has clearly demonstrated IAF high ups unhappiness with PAKFA. They have also boasted about getting F35 and again there have been news from Indian and US sources about the "willingness " of both parties to consider the sale. As such we have to factor it in and analyse the robustness of our acquisition cycle which is what I did. What gets or does not get sold or bought is not my business as far as IAF is concerned but what PAF does and plans for MY country is very much so. As such I made the post.
Hope this explains my train of thought. If it has chugged its way on to a different station than yours we can exchange ideas.
Regards
It's not that my thoughts were different, but that there is a misconception that somehow India is definitely going to get the F-35 just like any other jet.
You have to realize the potential un-balance that a stealth technology brings.
For example, India buying Rafales or Flankers is un-balancing, but nothing that cannot be countered with advanced radars, BVR and WVR missiles. But what about F-35? When your standard Air Defence set up cannot detect it, it tilts the balance in favor of the stealth. I've always maintained, that getting a Stealth aircraft in the region is akin to getting the nukes. China needed those, India needed those, Pakistan needed those. Since it cancels out any inherent conventional advantage, you got no issues.
IAF plans a lot of things. They planned LCA then they planned the mother of all 126 jet MMRCA. Yet, they still haven't been able to procure even 36 of them.
There was always a talk of F-35 being pitched by USA for Indian Aircraft carrier....well did that happen? They are still flying Mig 29 and developing naval LCA.
In short, what i mean to say is, buying F-35 is NOT the same as buying F-15 or F-16s from the USA. Very different power politics at play there.
However, if USA is able to see Pakistan and China get a stealth aircraft, then sure, they might offer the F-35, but USA is not going to be the one that un-balances the conventional regional forces because that will indirectly force China to respond as well. While India is strategic partner, it is still not at that stage. India is not Israel or Turkey.
Or clearly, India does not really have much value....USA just approved a massive AH1Z package to Pakistan, even though Indian order for AH64s still hangs out there........
If India was something to USA, as much as the Indian dreamers here believe, USA would refuse to sell any equipment to Pakistan that can also be used against India.
Just like Israel allowing the BLK52s to Egypt, while stopping short of the AIM120.
Turkey is different case though, since they are full NATO member.
15 helos is massive! !!
It is, considering the level of technology they bring over the previous helis Pakistan operated, along with the 1000 missiles....which no one saw coming....
It is not going to form the main fleet anyway....we've got plenty options for that.
Phaleeese
So you would not consider this approval a big deal?