A.P. Richelieu
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AESA is simply a small part of the equation. If you recall, even the SH and F-16 failed, and this is even before ToT came into the picture.
You will be surprised how much of a difference it will make for the Rafale considering Dassault will already have an assembly line in India even before MMRCA 2.0 starts. They plan to set it up with the second order of 36 jets, and they are expected to win the navy's MRCBF also. And Dassault will already have a spares industry set up. So most of the industrial costs will have already been amortised and can be removed from Dassault's bid. The customisation contract has also covered up any gaps the Rafale had versus the new competition.
My bet is the Gripen won't even be shortlisted. Because of the single engine. Lot of points lost there.
The French can make it available for tests in 2021. A lot of stuff for F4 is already being tested today through older programs. Plus, since Rafale was already shortlisted once before, they don't have to prove much except new systems.
That's where the 200+ LCA Mk2 will come in.
Lack of AESA was certainly the main reason why Gripen C was not shortlisted.
The US aircrafts were out primarily because they would not release source code allowing India to customize.
There will not be a second order of Rafale outside this project. Dream on.
I think the SH will win the IN procurement. At least they fit the elevator, even if they need a shoehorn. Detachable wingtips requiring 15-20 minutes extra handling once the aircraft is on deck sucks.
The LCA Mk 2 may or may not arrive.