India at Early Stages of Considering Whether it Wants the F-35 Stealth Fighters

[VkdIndian]

It's not the capabilities that India should look at. It's the political baggage that comes with it that India should and is worrying about.

The F-35 is the single most capable fighter in the world, heads above every other fighter period. But is that worth it if you end up having to become reliant on a foreign power to the point of having no choice but to do as they say for fear of using that capability?

Very valid points.

India‘s strategic capabilities are already quite dependent on the US which supplied the C-17s, C130s, Chinook and Apaches apart from various other equipment.

Historically, US hasn’t been a reliable military partner. It has proven it time and again by backing out against so called allies. Latest being Turkey, that bore the brunt inspite of being a NATO member. Buying F-35 would put India in a precarious dependence on US, in even more areas of military capabilities.

Indian military planners must be aware of these factors. This is likely to be an important factor in decision making.

Secondly, F-35 likely Induction might kill Indian programs to develop aircraft even with a little lesser capabilities. It may not be a bad idea to make do with lesser capable but indigenous platform to start with which can be refined over time.

Then there is cost factor. It is expensive platform to procure as well as operate. An indigenous platform would always be way cheaper. True value would unlock if a home grown engine is also developed.

Due to these factors, F-35 isn’t likely to be considered.

Has US offered it, should be the starting point for a discussion like this.

As of now it appears to be “ Dil behlane ko khayal hi accha hai Ghalib”.

 

[Raj-Hindustani]

2025 is just 2 years away, we shall see, but still, most of the project you listed are either having their first flight by late 20s or induction by 2030 and to build a considerable amount by mid 30s, early 40s..
How you gonna fill the requirement between now and then??

We will most likely have:

HAL Tejas MK1A with ASEA and Astra MK2 (range 160 KM); Astra MK1 with a range of 110 is already in use, and MK2 is in the works. (From 2024)

Rafale (airforce) -36 and RafaleM - 24, navy expected fresh batch orders.

 

[IblinI]

We will most likely have:

HAL Tejas MK1A with ASEA and Astra MK2 (range 160 KM); Astra MK1 with a range of 110 is already in use, and MK2 is in the works. (From 2024)

Rafale (airforce) -36 and RafaleM - 24, navy expected fresh batch orders.

The point is how many fresh competent jets before your stealth joined the air force.

 

[MirageBlue]

Why choose F-21 ? Why not choose F-16 ? F-16 is the most cost efficient fighter

F-21 is the new marketing name for the F-16V offered to the IAF. It features a few other capabilities that the standard F-16V offered to other nations doesn't.

didn't the S-400 acquisition essentially nuke any hope of India getting the F-35 ?

It all depends on the US Administration. Remember how India got a nuclear waiver which was never offered to others and caused a lot of heartburn in our neighborhood?

Technically it is possible and the IAF, MoD and GoI could theoretically sign non disclosure agreements that prohibit sharing of F-35 data with S-400's Almaz Antay which would be heavily involved in maintenance of the S-400 in India.

The bigger question is how badly does the IAF want it? To me it doesn't seem like there is that much of an interest in the type as yet. The IAF is aware that the MRFA RFP has to go out soon and the F-35 could derail it all, given it will have to be through a Govt to Govt route only due to the reluctance on LM's part to give heavy ToT and set up a full assembly line in India for the F-35.

 

[MirageBlue]

All your list are based on the timeframe given by the company, are you expecting all of them to be on time?
I would be skeptical, your HAL ceo said the AMCA is expected to fly by 2030 and here you say getting them by 2031-32?????


So basically you are going to have a couple numbers of tejas, maybe some more rafale (if contract signed) before 2030, in seven long years, less than 50 jets? This is definitely not enought to support your big dream.

AMCA is on the verge of completing CDR i.e. the Platform level Critical Design Review. After that, CCS sanction will definitely come in which means funds get allocated to start the building of the prototype.

Basically the AMCA design is almost done. Engine selection is done and F-414 engine manufacturing is to be done in Bangalore itself. GE has already applied for US govt. licenses for the export and manufacturing of the F-414 in India.

ADA has given the following timelines:

1st prototype rollout - 3.5 to 4 years after CCS sanction. That means in 2027
1st flight - 1 year after that. That means 2028

Regarding the Tejas Mk1A, 83 are to be delivered by 2028. There are new reports of an additional 50 Tejas Mk1A being ordered by the IAF to be delivered by 2030. That's a total of 133 Tejas Mk1A within the next 7-8 years.

After 2030 the Tejas Mk2 deliveries are supposed to start if the flight testing progresses as per plan. Given the high degree of commonality between the Tejas Mk1A and Mk2 in most systems, it will be a comparatively shorter phase of ground/system and flight testing before the Tejas Mk2 enters service.

As of now I'm not taking into account any additional MRFA numbers.

It's not the initial cost, it's the maintenance.

Precisely.

The F-35 actually works out quite ok in terms of initial acquisition costs. Just look at the South Korean deal or the Japanese deals and compare with what other nations are paying for Rafales or even F-16Vs.

The cost of spares, the number of hours it will take to maintain each hour it flies, these questions will be of major interest.

F-35 benefited a lot from the F-22 experience. Yet, there have been numerous reports on RAM wearing off earlier than expected, groundings, etc.

 

[MirageBlue]

Actually it's a major issue for us. We commited billions to the Russians for joint development of the Su 47. It has bombed big time and the 5th gen characteristics aren't up to mark. If that had entered, part of the maintaince and support would have been done in India itself due to the commonality with the SU 30 platform.

Now that option seems to be close due to underperformance. This means IAF has to look at higher procurement outlay, higher maintainence outlay as well as a lot less customization (we can't put in our own radar and avionics like we did in Su 30). This is a big bummer for us and that's why the IAF seems to have dragged its feet for over a decade. We have put out taking the pill but maybe we have no other option.

We didn't commit billions. What are you even talking about?

India spent USD 275 million during the Design and Development phase during which period some data related to the Su-57 was shared with HAL. However, the extent of the cooperation was very disappointing and most of the design work for the Su-57 was already done by then, leaving HAL and IAF with very little say in the final design.

The overall plan was to eventually buy almost 120 FGFA based on the Su-57 but that was shelved after the IAF and HAL felt that the design was not suitable from an RCS point of view plus some other aspects related to it's capabilities.

 

[Paji]

Actually the F-15EX is the most capable US candidate and is the likeliest to be offered by Boeing.

It may be more capable, but is India really looking for such a heavy fighter when they already have hundreds of Su-30MKI ?

Also, Lockheed Martin has claimed India will be the hub for manufacturing F-16s , including for the export market. I am not sure a similar deal will be offered by Boeing for the F15-EX.

 

[nahtanbob]

Actually the F-15EX is the most capable US candidate and is the likeliest to be offered by Boeing.

The F-21 is very unlikely to find favor with the IAF, just as the F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet isn't of any interest either.

One of the strange things I found out was that the US offer for F-16Vs was costlier than Dassault's offer for Rafales. Operational and maintenance costs of the Rafale were apparently cheaper than those of the F-16V as was publicly informed by the Colombian Defense Minister. So can't say that the F-21 offer will be the lowest priced either.

The closest the F-21 ever really came to being in the pole position was when the IAF closed MRCA and then started the Single Engine Fighter (SEF) competition. That was effectively a 2 horse race between the F-21 and the Gripen E/F. But once that SEF competition was once again enlarged to allow twin engine fighters to enter and the MRFA was started, then the Rafale is once again the hot favorite.

This time around I am sincerely hoping that the MRFA RFP does not elicit any response from Eurofighter. They are best avoided as far as the IAF is concerned (Germany's attitude is of special concern to India) with their multi-national mess.

F-35 is in the very early stages of even being considered. While it is a very capable fighter and a true 5th gen at that, the biggest issues will not be S-400 related exemption (which I believe the US and India can handle via a data sharing prevention agreement) but rather the issue of ToT and setting up an assembly line to manufacture the F-35 in India.

The IAF loves the Rafale, is very happy with it's capabilities as of the Rafale F3R standard and there is a proper funded roadmap to get to F4, which is what will be offered. Rafales also have demonstrated very good availability and uptime, which are extremely important factors. There have been reports of multiple issues with F-35 fleets in multiple countries simply due to the complexity of the F-35, it's avionics, data management systems, etc.

Commonality is a big factor in cost savings and reducing number of types. Rafale comes up on top in all respects, especially given we already have 36 and both the squadrons were made operational in record time.

at this point it makes no sense to make large purchases of f-35s. I say limit to 40 and build up confidence with the American ecosystem before increasing numbers
if ToT is required the better bang for the buck is related to technology related to F404/F414 engines. Use those engines to build a large fleet of combat aircraft based on domestic designs

 

[MirageBlue]

India should go the route of South Korea, if I'm being honest.

India did learn a lot from its other projects, but it doesn't have the expertise to build a 5th gen alone.

Better to go for a 4.5 Gen with 5th gen capabilities, like the KF-21, and upgrade it later, rather than go full throttle on a 5th gen right off the bat. India also desperately needs help with stealth technology which it can get from the US, or a shittier Russian version (better than nothing, I suppose).

Actually stealth related technology is pretty much already in a pretty decent state of progress at DRDO labs.

Conformal antennae have been developed, serpentine intakes demonstrated, DSI intakes, RAM coatings are done, even new composites with RAM, Open range for RCS measurement, RCS measurement software..all done and ready or in advanced stages of development.

Now they've even displayed the trapeze launcher for the IWB.

ADA and IAF are also being sensible in not abandoning the HUD like was done on the F-35. It look too much effort, time and millions upon millions of $ to get the F-35's HMDS to work correctly without making the pilot get headaches.

But it does make sense to not over-complicate matters with extremely ambitious requirements and aim to get the AMCA into the air at the earliest possible time frame.

It may be more capable, but is India really looking for such a heavy fighter when they already have hundreds of Su-30MKI ?

Also, Lockheed Martin has claimed India will be the hub for manufacturing F-16s , including for the export market. I am not sure a similar deal will be offered by Boeing for the F15-EX.

Yes that's a very valid question.

Super Sukhoi will go ahead so the IAF will have well over 250 Su-30MKI class heavy fighters. F-15EX is in the same class as far as weight and payload goes, so it doesn't make a lot of sense to go for it if it ends up being the most expensive of the MRFA fighters.

What I was saying is that the Boeing F-15EX is the most capable US fighter in the mix. It will easily qualify for the final shortlist after which it will be the total acquisition plus life-cycle costs that will give us a winner.

The Lockheed Martin F-21 needs to be the most affordable to be able to give the Rafale and F-15EX a run for their money.

LM already has it's Greenville production line in operation now. Back when we had the Single Engine Fighter competition going on, if the F-21 had been chosen, then all F-16Vs for the world would've been built in India. But that boat has sailed. Now LM will not shutter it's Greenville plant to export F-16Vs from India. They will continue to do what they're doing now, which is to build a lot of the F-16 airframe in India at TASL, which already builds F-16 wings.

 

[TopGun786]

Chinese Maal, pakistaniyon ko mubarak ho.

We should stick on our AMCA project.

Wishing you all the best.

 

[tonyget]

Maybe India can get F-35，if they agree to sanction Russia

 

[Flaming Sabre]

(1) F-35 technology is very high-end, in order to prevent technology leaks, the United States will only sell to their allies, and India is a country with great potential, but also the initiator of the Non-Aligned Movement, Indo-US friendship is only temporary, the United States use India to confront China, but do not want to turn India into the next China, which is why India buys so many Russian weapons, and Russia never provides technology to India reason.

2) In China's geopolitics, India and Pakistan maintain strategic balance to develop peacefully, when India buys rafale and tries to break the balance, China provides J-10C to Pakistan, when India has F-35, Pakistan will also have J-20 or J-35, Americans know the result, they will not exacerbate the meaningless geopolitical conflict.

3) Indian pilots are very badly skilled, crashes are frequent, and the US does not want the F-35 to become a submarine again