Iranian Economy.....news and discussions

[tonyget]

Is it true that Iran banned iphone imports（due to forex shortage）？

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Is it true that Iran banned iphone imports（due to forex shortage）？

Just did quick search, iPhone 13 is available and it's in the same price range of iPhone 14's but difference is there may be few shops selling 14s but you may find more 13s in market.


It seems you can't use domestic Iranian sim cards with iPhone 14 (if you bribe right people in right places everything is possible of course as people were saying in comments .... it's classic )

---

There is no Forex shortage as far as I know central bank is trying "new" ideas here. There is no meaningful private sector and since China is biggest partner of Iran , guys that work with China may see the results of said policies later than others.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Previously a lot of Chinese smartphones would've had many American components inside them as well making them subject to American sanctions, but since American bans on semiconductors and other high tech sectors came into effect Chinese manufacturers have been switching to domestic suppliers and IPs that don't need to bother with American sanction shenanigans. I'd expect the stuff exported to Iran to be de-Americanized products, if not fully Chinese. Huawei for example would love to increase HarmonyOS global market share so it can outcompete Apple and Google, after all.

and for two year I'm trying to find a way to install harmony or on my huawei phone and there is noway to install it on international phones . i think huawei is not aggressive enough on promoting harmony os

Is it true that Iran banned iphone imports（due to forex shortage）？

not so much more expensive than samsung or other brands top phones

 

[SalarHaqq]

@aryobarzan

Iran's fate in a couple of years if the fertility plummet isn't fixed and generational replacement not ensured...

China needs foreign workers. So why won’t it embrace immigration?

Opposition to multiculturalism is fuelled, in part, by claims of racial purity

www.economist.com

Globalist lobbies pressing for mass immigration - and not just from Afghanistan, whose people are of Iranian culture and language. Same globalists then engineering racialist opposition to migrants as well as pro-migrant 'Antifas', playing these groups against each other thereby creating and exploiting another social rift amidst the population.

While people are busied with this, the globalist mafia will attempt to impose the rest of its agenda onto Iran - LGBTQism, transhumanism, FATF and IMF debt trap and so on through the backdoor, via their liberal (reformist / moderate) footmen. All of which has so far been prevented by the Supreme Leader (h.A.) and forces loyal to the principles of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

 

[aryobarzan]

Not good if some of this forecasts actually happen..Raisi economics plans are now in question..it is almost 2 years and things do not look good.​

۴ پیش بینی از اقتصاد ۱۴۰۲​

به بهانه تازه ترین گزارش صندوق بین المللی پول از چشم انداز اقتصاد ایران طی امسال برخی از مهم ترین پیش بینی های اخیر در باره نرخ رشد و تورم اقتصاد ایران را بررسی کرده ایم.
به گزارش مشرق، در حدود یک ماه اخیر، چهار پیش بینی قابل توجه از نهادهای داخلی و خارجی در باره مولفه های اقتصاد کلان ایران منتشر شده است. با این حال تازه ترین پیش بینی که مربوط به صندوق بین المللی پول است، تصویر مثبت تری از نرخ رشد و تورم ارائه می دهد. به طوری که نرخ تورم با افت ۵/۶ واحد درصدی در سال ۲۰۲۳ به ۵/۴۲ و نرخ رشد اقتصادی به ۲ درصد خواهد رسید.
بروز شوک ارز و تورم در سال گذشته به همراه تحولات منطقه ای و سیاسی موجب شده در هفته های گذشته علاوه بر گزارش های دوره ای نهادهای بین المللی مانند بانک جهانی و صندوق بین المللی پول، نتایج پیش بینی اقتصاد ایران از سوی نهادهای مختلف منتشر شود.
بانک جهانی: افت نرخ رشد اقتصادی و صعود نرخ تورم
نخستین پیش بینی در یک ماه اخیر به بانک جهانی اختصاص دارد. این بانک در گزارشی که ۱۹ فروردین ماه امسال منتشر شد، تخمین زد در شرایطی که اقتصاد ایران در سال ۲۰۲۱ نرخ رشد ۷/۴ درصد داشته، در سال ۲۰۲۲ به رشد ۷/۲ درصد دست یافته و امسال نیز پیش بینی می شود این رقم به ۲ درصد برسد. این ها همه در شرایطی است که این داده ها در اقتصاد ایران نسبت به کشورهای منطقه، یک وجه مثبت هم دارد. بر این اساس، ایران جزو کشورهایی قرار گرفته که کمترین افت را در رشد اقتصادی خود در سال ۲۰۲۳ تجربه خواهند کرد. به عنوان مثال پیش بینی شده رشد اقتصادی عربستان و کویت که در سال ۲۰۲۲ به ترتیب ۷/۸ و ۹/۷ درصد محاسبه شده بود، امسال به حدود ۹/۲ و ۶/۲ درصد برسد. از سوی دیگر بانک جهانی در این گزارش، پیش بینی کرده که نرخ تورم با سیر افزایشی از ۴۶ درصد در ۲۰۲۲ به حدود ۴۹ درصد در ۲۰۲۳ خواهد رسید.
موسسه تحقیقات اقتصادی دانشگاه تهران: نرخ رشد اقتصادی نزولی، نرخ تورم بسیار صعودی
اما در بررسی بعدی، موسسه توسعه و تحقیقات اقتصادی دانشگاه تهران در نظرسنجی از ۴۱۰ صاحب نظر اقتصادی کشور، چشم انداز این افراد را از وضعیت متغیرهای اقتصادی و همچنین چالش ها و اولویت های اصلاحی در اقتصاد کشور جویا شد. نتایج این بررسی که آن هم در فروردین ماه امسال منتشر شده است، نشان می دهد که صاحب نظران داخلی به روند بسیار صعودی نرخ تورم و نیز روند نزولی نرخ رشد اقتصادی رای داده اند. طبق نظرات جمع آوری شده، نرخ تورم در حالی احتمالاً به صورت میانگین به ۱/۴۸ درصد می رسد که ارقام ۵۵ درصد و بالاتر، با تکرار زیادی روبه رو بوده است. اما در باره نرخ رشد اقتصادی، میانگین برآوردی صاحب نظران روی ارقام منفی ۶/۲ درصد (برای رشد کل) و منفی ۹/۳ درصد برای رشد اقتصادی بدون نفت قرار گرفته است. همچنین ارقام پرتکرار در این دو متغیر به ترتیب منفی ۸/۰ و منفی ۸ درصد بوده است. این جمع بندی، حکمرانی نامناسب اقتصادی را اساسی ترین چالش اقتصاد ایران اعلام کرده و پس از آن، فساد اقتصادی، نبود شایسته سالاری و تخصص گرایی، بی توجهی به نظرات نخبگان، نداشتن تعامل بین المللی مناسب، نابسامانی نظام تدبیر اقتصادی، نبود شفافیت اقتصادی، تحریم های اقتصادی، سرمایه پایین اجتماعی و تورم ساختاری را از جمله ۱۰ چالش اقتصاد ایران برشمرده است.
نظرخواهی پایگاه «فردای اقتصاد» از ۵۰ کارشناس اقتصادی: بدبینی غالب درباره رشد مثبت و تورم بین ۴۵ تا ۵۵ درصد
نظرخواهی دیگر در باره چشم انداز اقتصاد ایران را پایگاه «فردای اقتصاد» انجام داده که نتایج آن ۱۰ اردیبهشت امسال منتشر شده است. در این نظرخواهی، پاسخ ۵۰ اقتصاددان به ۹ پرسش کلیدی مورد کنکاش قرار گرفته است.بر این اساس و در باره نرخ رشد اقتصادی، ۳۳ درصد کارشناسان معتقد بوده اند که رشد اقتصادی به رقم منفی قابل ملاحظه ای خواهد رسید. ۲۷ درصد نیز قائل به این بوده اند که لااقل رشد صنایع بزرگ و بخش خدمات اتفاق خواهد افتاد و موجب خواهد شد در حوزه تولید بدون نفت رشد اقتصادی کوچکی در حدود یک تا ۵/۲ درصد محقق شود. اما در باره تورم، ۵۶ درصد نظر کارشناسان این بوده که فشارها در بازار ارز ادامه خواهد یافت. انتظارات تورمی به رویه فعلی باقی خواهد ماند و در نتیجه تورم مشابه سال ۱۴۰۱ در محدوده ۴۵ تا ۵۵ درصد تثبیت خواهد شد.
صندوق بین المللی پول: افت اندک نرخ رشد و قابل توجه تورم
اما تازه ترین برآورد در باره اقتصاد ایران را در روزهای اخیر، صندوق بین المللی پول منتشر کرده است. به گزارش تسنیم، داده های این نهاد بین المللی نشان می دهد نرخ رشد اقتصاد ایران که در سال ۲۰۲۲، ۵/۲ درصد بوده، در سال ۲۰۲۳ به ۲ درصد کاهش می یابد. این نهاد بین‌المللی انتظار دارد اقتصاد ایران امسال به طور کلی روندی مثبت و رو به جلو داشته باشد و از ۱۲ شاخص مورد بررسی ۷ شاخص وضعیت بهتری در این سال نسبت به سال قبل داشته باشند. در همین زمینه، احتمالاً روند صعودی نرخ تورم ایران در سال ۲۰۲۳ معکوس می شود. به طوری که از ۴۹ درصد در سال ۲۰۲۲ به ۵/۴۲ درصد طی امسال کاهش خواهد یافت.
جدای از نتایج و پیش بینی هایی که این مراکز داخلی و خارجی منتشر کرده اند، به نظر می رسد مرکز ثقل انتظارات افکار عمومی درباره اقتصاد ایران، باید عمدتاً به جهت گیری و سرعت اقدامات اصلاحی معطوف باشد. بدیهی است اقتصاد کشور از مشکلات ساختاری رنج می برد و تا زمانی که این مشکلات برطرف نشوند، حتی آمارهای مثبت نیز چندان از منظر بلندمدت قابل اتکا و پایدار نخواهند بود. باید منتظر ماند و دید که امسال به عنوان مثال، روند کنترل نقدینگی از منظر ناترازی بانک ها، روند نرخ ارز از منظر اصلاحات تجارت خارجی و همچنین روند رشد تولید از منظر شفافیت و بهبود فضای کسب و کار به کدام سمت و سو خواهد رفت.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

New tax regime which introduced by government has been approved by parliament ( as far as I remember it's unheard that something at this size and influence done in this short amount of time)

Cars :
From sale of car up to 1 year : 30% tax
From sale of car between 1 to 2 year 20% tax
From sale of car between 2 to 3 years of buying it 10% tax
After third year 0 tax

* based on size of family up to 4 cars are exempted from paying the tax .

Housing :

From sale before first year 60% tax
From sale before second year 40% tax
From sale before third year 20% tax
From sale before forth year 10% tax
From sale before fifth year 5% tax

Gold, Jewels and foreign currencies :

Up to the first year (of buying it) 30% tax
Between first and second year 20% tax
Between second and third year 10% tax

* less than 2000 euro (or 2400 USD) will be exempted from taxes.

(It's interesting since our biggest economic partner is China and naturally wording here should be Yuan not USD and Euro )

---

Initial market reaction to it can be seen in darker red one (-4.7% at first hour) :

Possible reasoning behind such taxes :

In order : 1.Gold ( Imam coin ) 45% 2. USD 40% 3. Pride (Iranian cheap/economic car) 35% 4.Housing 30% 5. Tehran Market 45% 5. Banks ~16%

Red line : average yearly of inflation in 12 years.
Dark green : average yearly profit in different items/sections in 12 years.

سÙÙÛ٠رÛزش پرÙÙدار تارÛØ® بÙرس تÙراÙ

شاخص ک٠بÙرس ÙعاÙÙات اÙرÙز را با اÙت Ûµ.Û±Ûµ Ø¯Ø±ØµØ¯Û Ø¨Ù Ù¾Ø§Ûا٠رساÙد تا سÙÙÛ٠رÛزش تارÛØ®Û Ø¨Ùرس از Ø¢Ù ÙجدÙÙÛ٠رÙز اردÛبÙشت Û±Û´Û°Û² Ø´Ùد.

www.fardayeeghtesad.com

---

EDIT:

since the start of new wave of sanctions (~12 years ago ) government businesses and it's pockets almost remained unchanged (profits in some fields) but businesses and pockets of people (real private sector) got smaller.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Car vs Housing

Government here produces cars but it doesn't have that kind of monopoly in housing market (still don't forget they get profit by higher price of houses since they have infinite amount of land and they gain there too )

Another example would be bank loans to different sections (almost all of these banks are either owned by government or derivatives of them)

On top of 35% of total loans to industry and 40% to services (which I think most of it goes to industry again in last year) and 40 years of giving subsidies to car makers Housing section got 7.2% of loans.

Mr Raisy asked for extra 10% to fix problems of Housing and he got extra 5% for it. (it is still huge which means national development found will get less from sale of oil and gas I think 40-5=35% will go to it )

This is also one of the rare instants of our recent history and others were not that lucky/incompetent since this government is stealing from future of this county.

 

[SalarHaqq]

The monetarist propaganda of the liberal lobby, which controls the economic press in Iran, methodically dissected and debunked in the presentation below.

As a quick reminder, monetarism is the single most extreme school of market-focused economics. In that sense, academic and media discourse on the economy in Iran is dominated by a radical outlier school devoid of nuance, whose lacking concern for social welfare of the masses is a quasi openly admitted feature. When monetarist figures put forth the living conditions of ordinary people, it is essentially out of political calculus. What drives them however are the interests of major corporations and financial institutions.

Iran's structural economic challenges after the first decade of the Revolution are a consequence of this line of thinking, which successive moderate and reformist administrations since Hashemi have been imposing on the people in the actual sense of the term - i.e. the masses of employees, workers and small business owners. Remember, Hashemi is on the record for stating that it would be acceptable if "some [people] are crushed under the wheels of development". This is their ideology.

Yet, rather than taking a step back and exercising introspection after three decades of experience, this camp has the habit of systematically doubling down on its efforts to push governments into implementing its IMF-, World Bank- and Davos-approved globalist agenda. An agenda that has nothing national to it, that does not believe in industrial and agricultural self-sufficiency for Iran and is designed to dismantle the achievements of the Islamic Republic by turning Iran into a mono-sectorial crude oil exporter like under the US client regime of the Pahlavis.

Conversely, the current administration of seyyed Ra'isi has taken the excellent decision to raise tax revenues. Tax income is typically minimal in under-industrialized countries whose economies are dependent on crude oil sales. Economic diversification away from oil dependence however requires expansion of tax collection. An added benefit is that the incentive for Iranians to trade their Rials for alternate assets will be reduced if said assets are taxed, which in turn will contribute to de-dollarization and to driving down inflation. It also tends to discourage people from engaging into speculation in the concerned areas of activity, and is therefore favoring productive investment over the latter.

A must watch for patriotic Iranians interested in understanding what's at stake in the economic debate:

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

New tax regime which introduced by government has been approved by parliament ( as far as I remember it's unheard that something at this size and influence done in this short amount of time)


View attachment 928339

Cars :
From sale of car up to 1 year : 30% tax
From sale of car between 1 to 2 year 20% tax
From sale of car between 2 to 3 years of buying it 10% tax
After third year 0 tax

* based on size of family up to 4 cars are exempted from paying the tax .

Housing :

From sale before first year 60% tax
From sale before second year 40% tax
From sale before third year 20% tax
From sale before forth year 10% tax
From sale before fifth year 5% tax

Gold, Jewels and foreign currencies :

Up to the first year (of buying it) 30% tax
Between first and second year 20% tax
Between second and third year 10% tax

* less than 2000 euro (or 2400 USD) will be exempted from taxes.

(It's interesting since our biggest economic partner is China and naturally wording here should be Yuan not USD and Euro )

---

Initial market reaction to it can be seen in darker red one (-4.7% at first hour) :

View attachment 928341

Possible reasoning behind such taxes :

View attachment 928342

In order : 1.Gold ( Imam coin ) 45% 2. USD 40% 3. Pride (Iranian cheap/economic car) 35% 4.Housing 30% 5. Tehran Market 45% 5. Banks ~16%

Red line : average yearly of inflation in 12 years.
Dark green : average yearly profit in different items/sections in 12 years.

سÙÙÛ٠رÛزش پرÙÙدار تارÛØ® بÙرس تÙراÙ

شاخص ک٠بÙرس ÙعاÙÙات اÙرÙز را با اÙت Ûµ.Û±Ûµ Ø¯Ø±ØµØ¯Û Ø¨Ù Ù¾Ø§Ûا٠رساÙد تا سÙÙÛ٠رÛزش تارÛØ®Û Ø¨Ùرس از Ø¢Ù ÙجدÙÙÛ٠رÙز اردÛبÙشت Û±Û´Û°Û² Ø´Ùد.

www.fardayeeghtesad.com

---

EDIT:

since the start of new wave of sanctions (~12 years ago ) government businesses and it's pockets almost remained unchanged (profits in some fields) but businesses and pockets of people (real private sector) got smaller.

This tax is on top of the taxes that people already paying for these stuff (direct and indirect ones).

For example if you want to sell your house, car, gold or jewels less than first year of buying that stuff you should play these extra taxes.

---

Another one I would like to ask simple question to everyone here that studied on economic, trade, data and ... subjects either highly educated or simple first year students :

Would you ratter have highly variable numbers for taxes (like 60% to 0 or 30% to 0 ) or simple static numbers (like exact 15% or whatever number you feel it's good) ?

 

[Hack-Hook]

This tax is on top of the taxes that people already paying for these stuff (direct and indirect ones).

For example if you want to sell your house, car, gold or jewels less than first year of buying that stuff you should play these extra taxes.

---

Another one I would like to ask simple question to everyone here that studied on economic, trade, data and ... subjects either highly educated or simple first year students :

Would you ratter have highly variable numbers for taxes (like 60% to 0 or 30% to 0 ) or simple static numbers (like exact 15% or whatever number you feel it's good) ?

well its a tax on inflation , another masterpiece of a certain government , wonder if there would be any incentive to reduce inflation.
on plus side in case of cars they exempted up to 4 car depend on the family size from this inflation tax
and they exempted foreign currency tax if it is in bank accounts

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

well its a tax on inflation , another masterpiece of a certain government , wonder if there would be any incentive to reduce inflation.
on plus side in case of cars they exempted up to 4 car depend on the family size from this inflation tax
and they exempted foreign currency tax if it is in bank accounts

Can't wait for next phase

money with expiration date of 30 days of course you should spend it on what big brother tells you to
government based marriage "advisory" agencies
rating people based on "moral" codes

 

[aryobarzan]

Another one I would like to ask simple question to everyone here that studied on economic, trade, data and ... subjects either highly educated or simple first year students :

Would you ratter have highly variable numbers for taxes (like 60% to 0 or 30% to 0 ) or simple static numbers (like exact 15% or whatever number you feel it's good)

Same question has been asked many times in Canada..and a fixed tax rate has never been approved...Escalating tax brackets are a good way for any government to channel economic activities to areas they want..

So in principal agree with it..In Canada if you buy a house you need to live in the house for at least one year to be able to sell it Tax free. If you have a second house as investment when you sell it you need to pay big tax on profit you made and that tax depends on your income level.

 

[Cancerous Tumor]

Same question has been asked many times in Canada..and a fixed tax rate has never been approved...Escalating tax brackets are a good way for any government to channel economic activities to areas they want..

So in principal agree with it..In Canada if you buy a house you need to live in the house for at least one year to be able to sell it Tax free. If you have a second house as investment when you sell it you need to pay big tax on profit you made and that tax depends on your income level.

Do you consider price of houses in Canada compared to similar countries(in work force size, income level and ..) higher or lower ?

 

[HGV]

well its a tax on inflation , another masterpiece of a certain government , wonder if there would be any incentive to reduce inflation.
on plus side in case of cars they exempted up to 4 car depend on the family size from this inflation tax
and they exempted foreign currency tax if it is in bank accounts

No, it's a tax on short-term speculation which drives asset prices higher (thus helping to reduce inflation).

If it is less attractive to convert rial to gold then people will be less likely to do that, reducing sell pressure on rial.

 

[Hack-Hook]

No, it's a tax on short-term speculation which drives asset prices higher (thus helping to reduce inflation).

you get it wrong asset don't increase in value , its the money that loose its value

If it is less attractive to convert rial to gold then people will be less likely to do that, reducing sell pressure on rial.

don't help as people do it to protect their investment value