Iranian Economy.....news and discussions

[SalarHaqq]

if the people are ignorant , yes if they are educated , no

Education per se is not an impediment to generating sufficient offspring.

Also the question was whether raising two and more children is affordable. Yes it is. Nations with significantly lower living standards can afford it, so will Iranians.

nonsense about extinction , as long as there is positive population growth there is no such thing ,

When fertility rate falls below 2,1 it means generational replacement is no longer taking place. In other terms, population growth is doomed to turn negative no matter what.

So yes, Iran is very much at risk of civilization extinction with a fertility rate inferior to 2,1.

corruption , social injustice and poverty are far more dangerous for the existence of the country.

No they definitely aren't. According to empirical data, demographic slump in the contemporary era has been irreversible. There's not a single example of a country managing to sustainably fix the issue. Not a single one. Every government that tried, failed.

The jury's out on Hungary at the moment, the upcoming five to fifteen years will show whether or not their policy will bear lasting fruit. But if it does, then that will make them the very first ones worldwide to achieve such a feat in the contemporary era.

This paper contains all readers need to know about this particular aspect:

Can China Reverse Its Population Decline? Just Ask Sweden.

Wealthy countries have been trying to boost their birthrates for decades. The results have been pretty similar.

www.nytimes.com

So either way, action must be taken in this area before it's too late.

Corruption, social injustice and poverty - none of these are irreversible. Demographic plunge however is, until someone finds a viable formula to neutralize it (other than through mass immigration, that is).

also don't forget that someone said if poverty enter from door the faith go out of the windows

Off topic.

the population is growing ,

Below threshold fertility may take some time to result in negative population growth, but the latter is guaranteed to set in unless compensated by mass immigration or by successful natalist policies.

if you fear about jobs and workforce then don't retire people at the age of 45

Generational replacement must be ensured first and foremost. That's the foundational condition. Without it, the entire economic system will be grappling with structural deficiencies.

its nonsense to talk about higher growth rate without solving , education , food security , job and ....problems

Not at all. There's wide consensus among economists and demographers that demographic decline leads to economic slowdown and crisis.

Healthy demographic growth is ensured by a fertility rate comprised between 2,1 and 2,5. Other things being equal, such a fertility rate will not put any particular strain on education, food security or availability of jobs.

Fertility rate of 2,1 = population remains constant over time - assuming low infant mortality, unchanged overall death rate, no significant variation in life expectancy and zero net migration.
Fertility rate of 1,74 (the figure for Iran in 2021-2022) = population is ageing and will start regressing in absolute numbers anytime.

Pay attention to this brief explanatory note, it explains it well:

Replacement level fertility and future population growth - PubMed

'Replacement level fertility' is a technical term which seems almost self-explanatory. However there are some important qualifications which make it a more difficult concept than might be supposed. Also, the relationship between replacement level fertility and zero population growth is...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

we already have problem providing water for our population and you guys calling fr more people
we already have problem providing enough job for people and you ask to increase the population faster than this.

Iran's population will start declining in a couple of years if fertility is not given a boost. That's how demographic dynamics work.

If nothing is done to reverse the trend, in the short to mid term it will spell economic disaster. When there's an excess of elderly as compared to young citizens, research and development, innovation go out the window. The funding of pensions becomes a massive issue. The workforce shrinks, production tends to drop. And so on, and so forth.

There's really no point arguing here, since the experience of developed countries affected by demographic regression is crystal clear. They resorted to mass immigration in order to alleviate the heavy economic consequences.

our constitution state that education till the end of high school must be free for all , do you knew how many people have access to that free education.

Their numbers are diminishing with each passing year.

also you forget one thing , where you want to put these people ? in Teharan , Tabriz , Mashhad, Shiraz or Isfahan . you think the people who born and raised in those cities will go to sarab for example.
I have been in the small cities and the situation there is ...., there is no jobs there , the services are non existence.

With the current fertility rate Iran's population is bound to experience negative growth in a couple of years from now. By then this evolution will have become fully irremediable in practice. This in addition to an increase of the population's median age and further narrowing of the age pyramid's basis.

For generational replacement to be possible, Iran's fertility rate needs to be stabilized at above 2,1.

If small cities grow, they will attract investment and economic activity in those locations will intensify.

wonder why always people from europe and north america must come and talk about raising the population in Iran . why you guys won't come back and help raise the population,.... in small cities and villages

The Supreme Leader, who is neither from Europe nor from America, repeatedly rang the alarm bell. His warnings are stark and unequivocal on this matter.

Furthermore demography and economics are universal disciplines. What transpires from studies conducted in these fields is that a florishing economy requires generational replacement and that demographic ageing is a dead end.

Iran must improve her fertility rate to between 2,1 and 2,5 now or she will face a drastic economic crisis down the line, on top of the threat of civilizational extinction.

This is not a matter of opinion or perspective, it's a process evidenced by scientific research and corroborated by scores of readily observable cases.

 

[aryobarzan]

the population is growing , if you fear about jobs and workforce then don't retire people at the age of 45
its nonsense to talk about higher growth rate without solving , education , food security , job and ....problems

we already have problem providing water for our population and you guys calling fr more people
we already have problem providing enough job for people and you ask to increase the population faster than this.
our constitution state that education till the end of high school must be free for all , do you knew how many people have access to that free education.
also you forget one thing , where you want to put these people ? in Teharan , Tabriz , Mashhad, Shiraz or Isfahan . you think the people who born and raised in those cities will go to sarab for example.
I have been in the small cities and the situation there is ...., there is no jobs there , the services are non existence.


wonder why always people from europe and north america must come and talk about raising the population in Iran . why you guys won't come back and help raise the population,.... in small cities and villages

In Canada the fertility rate is even lower than Iran at 1.4 %..This is a big issue here..they have increased immigration but that has created a lot of its own problems..Salar is right about sounding the alarms on this.

 

[Hack-Hook]

In Canada the fertility rate is even lower than Iran at 1.4 %..This is a big issue here..they have increased immigration but that has created a lot of its own problems..Salar is right about sounding the alarms on this.

he is not , he believe in starting a job and later deal with the problem it raise . that is awful specially in Iran as we don't fix the problem but blame previous government for that .

if you want more population you first must fix some problems , you must build some bases that you can increase your population according to them.

just increasing the population without planning for it is just wrong aweful and make problem , the problem like 50-60 student classes that we had in 60s the problem that the families already have problem feeding and educating 1 children while both parent are working , now you want one parent stay at home raising children and the other provide for more children .


It simply just can't work like that .
right now our supposed free education system is demanding families pay for exam papers

تفکیک دانش‌آموزان کشور بر اساس پول، استعداد و روابط | مدارس شاهد برای سفارشی‌ها - پایگاه اطلاع رسانی دیارمیرزا

ضعیف نگه داشتن مدارس دولتی عادی باعث رشد برخی مدارس غیردولتی شده؛ فعالیت مدارس غیردولتی، سمپاد، شاهد و نمونه دولتی بر اساس تفکیک دانش‌آموزان است؛ برخی تفکیک بر اساس پول، برخی مانند مدارس شاهد، تفکیک براساس روابط و برخی تفکیک بر اساس استعداد است!

diyarmirza.ir

روزنامه ایران: دسترسی عادلانه دانش آموزان به آموزش

هدی هاشمیخبرنگارچند سالى است که موضوع عدالت آموزشى و برخوردارى از آموزش و پرورش رایگان تا دوره متوسطه اول در سرفهرست برنامه هاى دولت‌ها

www.pishkhan.com

says it all

اما در کنار این موضوعات، بسیاری از کارشناسان می‌گویند برخی از اقدامات آموزشی این وزارتخانه برخلاف عدالت آموزشی است. مثلاً سیاست تنوع مدارس آموزش و پرورش عدالت آموزشی را زیر سؤال می‌برد. این موضوع درباره مدارس غیردولتی بسیار مطرح است چرا که مدارس دولتی به لحاظ کیفیت سطح پایینی دارند و برخی از خانواده‌ها بچه‌ها را در مدارس غیردولتی ثبت نام می‌کنند این تنوع مدارس را آموزش و پرورش نباید کم کند؟
کاملاً درست است. زمانی که وزیر بودم به سمت کاهش تنوع حرکت کردم خیلی جاها هم موفق بودم عمر و میانگین وزیر آموزش و پرورش در این کشور ٢ سال است. از اول انقلاب تا حالا ١٤ وزیر داشتیم بجز آقای نجفی که ٩ سال وزیر بودند مابقی وزرا میانگین کارشان ٢ سال بوده است با این دو سال وزیری که نمی‌شود کاری انجام داد. هر وزیر یک کاری را شروع می‌کند و وسط راه هم رها می‌شود. درباره تنوع مدارس بگویم که این موضوع دو خاستگاه دارد اول اینکه تنوع در مخاطب است یک نفر که تیزهوش است ما جدایش کردیم و در مدرسه تیزهوشان بردیم. یک نفر که معمولی است را در کلاس دیگر و دانش‌آموزان استثنایی را هم به مدارس خاص می‌فرستیم. این گریزناپذیر است البته در دولت دهم آمدند مدارس تیزهوشان را بی‌رویه گسترش دادند من که آمدم با توجه به شاخص ٢/٧ درصد اینها را بررسی کردیم این یعنی از ١٠٠ دانش‌آموز ٢/٧ درصد تیزهوش هستند و بقیه باید مدرسه عادی بروند. الان نمی‌دانم این کار انجام می‌شود یا خیر. اما برخی از تنوع‌ها برای گرفتن پول از مردم است.

you increase the population you worsen the situation .
another problem is food security , for that we need population in villages , small cities and tribal area. for the last decade there was not a year that the population in those area didn't decrease , do you believe the rise in population will happen in those areas or in big cities ? and can you explain to me how we are supposed to feed those peoples . and let not talk about the jobs, housing , water, ...

 

[SalarHaqq]

he is not , he believe in starting a job and later deal with the problem it raise . that is awful specially in Iran as we don't fix the problem but blame previous government for that .

if you want more population you first must fix some problems , you must build some bases that you can increase your population according to them.

People generally will stop at the surface of things and will tend to reproduce certain incorrect but commonplace misconceptions, which is perfectly normal. Because in order to gain proper understanding of the interplay between demographic and economic dynamics, as well as of where Iran actually stands in this regard, some additional research needs to be conducted into the topic.

To put things into perspective, I demonstrated with the help of documented evidence how:

1) Population ageing leads to severe economic deficiencies. It creates severe issues of its own which will only add themselves to existing ones. It does not solve anything at all, creates no economic reprieve whatsoever. As far as Iran's concerned, at the present rate she will turn old before having had the chance to turn more prosperous, and will thus miss the opportunity to expand her economy in a proper manner.

2) After a given time span, demographic slump has this nasty property of becoming irreversible in practice - which is not the case of most pre-existing economic shortcomings. In other terms newfound economic worries stemming from demographic decline will not be solvable whilst the rest usually would've been.

3) With a fertility rate of 1,74 Iran is suffering from a dangerously moribund demography. This means that owing to sub-replacement level fertility, the Iranian population is absolutely guaranteed to start diminishing in a couple of years from now, when the elder generation passes away, the middle aged go into retirement and children born in the meantime will be too few to replace them all on the labor market.

By then the median age will have reached historically unprecedented peaks and the proportion of pensioners to active population will be thrown off balance, making funding of pensions hugely problematic. In addition, scientific progress, R&D and innovation,will take a huge hit as the number of students plummets, whilst glaring sectorial gaps will appear in the workforce. All these developments will be immensely detrimental to the economy.

And worst of all, the trend will simply not be reversible anymore. If mass immigration is then opted for in an attempt to curb the deficit in births, it will represent an insurmountable threat to Iran's national and civilizational cohesion whilst falling short of neutralizing the demographic downturn.

Raising the fertility rate back to between 2,1 and 2,3 will not increase the population in any significant way. What it will do is to keep the numbers stable at current levels. In my previous comment I shared a link to a brief read where this is explained.

Right now Iran's fertility is significantly beneath the mentioned threshold, and has been stagnating at similar rates for multiple years already. This in turn is akin to driving into a wall at full speed. For the Iranian nation this is a life or death question now.

just increasing the population without planning for it is just wrong aweful and make problem , the problem like 50-60 student classes that we had in 60s the problem that the families already have problem feeding and educating 1 children while both parent are working , now you want one parent stay at home raising children and the other provide for more children .

Again, correcting the fertility rate by making it climb back to replacement level will not "increase the population". This fact should sink in at last.

Refraining from such corrective measures however will have a devastating impact on the economy as well as on Iran's survival as the distinctive nation she is.

In regard to sustaining a family, as said the quoted assumption isn't operative. To begin with, the share of working females in Iran is inferior to 20% so most mothers are not and will not be working anyway. Then, in nations with far lower standards of living, working class parents can afford to raise up to four or more children. Therefore this will not be an obstacle for Iranians.

On a sidenote, liberals seem to believe that up to 15 or 20 million jobs can be created for all Iranian women to be put to work. But when it comes to generating just enough jobs to keep Iran's population at a constant number and prevent it from ageing, they'll be claiming such an endeavour is impossible.

It simply just can't work like that .

Not only does it work like that, but it's actually continued negligence in this area which will make things go down the drain, as the Supreme Leader correctly understands, hence his recurrently expressed concerns.

right now our supposed free education system is demanding families pay for exam papers

تفکیک دانش‌آموزان کشور بر اساس پول، استعداد و روابط | مدارس شاهد برای سفارشی‌ها - پایگاه اطلاع رسانی دیارمیرزا

ضعیف نگه داشتن مدارس دولتی عادی باعث رشد برخی مدارس غیردولتی شده؛ فعالیت مدارس غیردولتی، سمپاد، شاهد و نمونه دولتی بر اساس تفکیک دانش‌آموزان است؛ برخی تفکیک بر اساس پول، برخی مانند مدارس شاهد، تفکیک براساس روابط و برخی تفکیک بر اساس استعداد است!

diyarmirza.ir

روزنامه ایران: دسترسی عادلانه دانش آموزان به آموزش

هدی هاشمیخبرنگارچند سالى است که موضوع عدالت آموزشى و برخوردارى از آموزش و پرورش رایگان تا دوره متوسطه اول در سرفهرست برنامه هاى دولت‌ها

www.pishkhan.com

says it all

Same thing elsewhere, free education systems will charge some minor administrative fees. Nothing out of the ordinary.

you increase the population you worsen the situation .

To the contrary, you safeguard the economy and your civilization from collapse. As proven concretely via the example of wealthy countries choosing to resort to mass immigration in futile hopes of compensating for population ageing, because they too failed to implement the necessary natalist measures.

And for the umpteenth time, this isn't about increasing the population but strictly about stabilizing it by ensuring generational replacement, a must for a healthy economic system.

another problem is food security , for that we need population in villages , small cities and tribal area. for the last decade there was not a year that the population in those area didn't decrease , do you believe the rise in population will happen in those areas or in big cities ? and can you explain to me how we are supposed to feed those peoples . and let not talk about the jobs, housing , water, ...

There's no food crisis in Iran, liberals have been shown to be fearmongering about water scarcity in an utterly far fetched manner in order to discourage natalist policies as well as agricultural self-sufficiency, in line with their globalist loyalties and agenda.

When there are hundreds of thousands of empty flats across the country then housing is provided for.

As for employment, a fertility rate just above replacement level will not put a strain on the job market.

 

[SalarHaqq]

To Iranians reading this, I will urge you to consider the following quotes carefully. They're authored by a user who, unlike the average forum member has actually studied demography at an academic level. The user is question is therefore familiar with the topic well beyond the basics.

It shows us how there's simply no basis whatsoever to the popular belief that from an economic perspective, demographic decline and ageing of the population would somehow be "preferable" over generational renewal and replacement level fertility.

Beware of liberal talking points, which are all too easily repeated by the public since most people lack the required insight into the subject matter and liberals have a quasi monopoly on economic discourse in Iran. Reformists and moderates, who implemented radical anti-natalist policies during the 1990's and 2000's in keeping with the ideology of globalist institutions and oligarchs, are following an agenda in this regard.

For a glimpse of what this agenda consists of, look no further than Europe and how ruling elites over here failed to address demographic decline, only to try to compensate in vain through mass immigration, which contributed to deeply diluting their religious and national characteristics.

I'd strongly advise against taking this lightly. Iran's future is at stake. And the comments below will clarify why.

---

---

And to conclude, you will find some spot on comments by a European user below:

 

[Luosifen]

1. https://en.mehrnews.com/news/199226/Iran-has-no-blocked-money-in-China-ambassador

Apr 8, 2023, 6:00 PM

Iran has no blocked money in China: ambassador​

TEHRAN, Apr. 08 (MNA) – "We have no money blocked in China. Many projects in Iran today are being carried out by the Chinese," according to the Iranian ambassador to Beijing, in an interview with Mehr.

In an interview with Mehr, the Iranian envoy to China Mohammad Keshavarzadeh said that the East Asian country wants a win-win relationship with the world and does not seek hegemony and domination over other nations.

With regard to the Iran-Saudi Arabia agreement which was signed in the Chinese capital, Keshavarzadeh said as the Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang emphasized in the meeting between Mr. Amir-Abdollahian and the Saudi foreign minister, Beijing hosted the talks which resulted in the agreement to restore diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia not to secure its own interests but it sought to bring two important countries in the region to sit down for talks together to create more peace and stability in the Middle East region.

"As the Chinese Foreign Minister said that agreement could set a role model for the other countries of the region to resolve their differences through dialogue," said the ambassador, adding "The Chinese really showed goodwill in that regard."

He went on to say that the relations between Tehran and Beijing have always been progressing and developing, adding "China is a buyer of Iranian oil and most of our country's domestic needs are met by China."

Keshavarzadeh also answered the question of whether Iran has any blocked money in China saying, " No, we do not have money blocked in China. Many projects in Iran today are carried out by the Chinese, and some projects are also underway. Also, Americans sanctioned many Chinese companies and Chinese companies suffered. In spite of that, the Chinese firms continue to be present in Iran."

The diplomat also said that the Western countries have waged media propaganda against China because they are jealous of Beijing's progress and development.

"According to the statistics published by Western countries, the living standards of the Chinese people have completely changed in the last forty years. One has to point out that the wealth that the Chinese gained was not obtained from the colonization of other countries. China was not like the Western countries that went to colonize Africa or Latin America or Asia and plunder their wealth."

KI/5749474







News Code 199226

 

[Sineva]

Interesting....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651559646404943875

 

[Luosifen]

Interesting....

https://twitter.com/x/status/1651559646404943875

Both Iran and Russia are under US sanctions, any Chinese companies exporting would just do it directly to each via national currencies without using USD, no?

 

[Sineva]

Both Iran and Russia are under US sanctions, any Chinese companies exporting would just do it directly to each via national currencies without using USD, no?

One would certainly hope so.
Personally I dont necessarily buy this guys theory,I just think its interesting that sales of phones seem to have surged so much.Then again I think that its just as likely that china is simply no longer willing to tow the western line on iran when it comes to western sanctions/economic warfare,and frankly who could blame them.

 

[aryobarzan]

Two giant sectors of Iranian economy waking up to take their share. By themselves these two sectors can make Iran one of the richest countries on earth..

1. Petrochemicals
2. Mining

Just on the mining side Iran's value added $$ figure for mining reserves is estimated to be $ 4 Trillion dollars.
lots of good data on this report:

Mining, petrochemicals: Iran’s keys to make sanctions fail​

Monday, 01 May 2023 11:35 AM [ Last Update: Monday, 01 May 2023 11:35 AM ]

The 14th international Iran Petrochemical Forum (IPF) opened at IRIB International Conference Center in Tehran on Monday, May 1, 2023. (Photo by Shana)
Iran’s mining and mineral industry companies exported $12.2 billion worth of products in the last Persian year which ended on March 20, government data show.

Mining, petrochemicals: Iran’s keys to make sanctions fail

Iran’s mining and mineral industry companies exported $12.2 billion worth of products in the last Persian year which ended on March 20, government data show.

www.presstv.ir

 

[lydian fall]

Iran’s Foreign Trade Exchange Hits $6.7 Billion in One Month: IRICA​

• May, 01, 2023 - 13:53
• Economy news

TEHRAN (Tasnim) – The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration (IRICA) put the value of trade exchanges between Iran and other countries at $6.7 billion in the first month of the current Iranian calendar year (March 21-April 20).​

According to IRICA, 10,471,000 tons of goods, valued at $3,645,000,000, were exported from the country in this period, showing a 12.93 percent decline in value and 17.76 percent rise in weight compared to the same period last year.
In addition, 1,829,000 tons of goods, valued at $3.87 billion, were imported into the country from March 21 to April 20, 2023.
Liquified natural gas (LNG), liquified propane, liquified butane, iron and steel ingot and methanol were Iran’s main products exported overseas in this period, IRICA added.
China, Iraq, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and India were Iran’s main export target markets in this period.
Iran exported $1.140 billion and $609 million worth of products to China and Iraq respectively from March 21 to April 20.

 

[Sineva]

Both Iran and Russia are under US sanctions, any Chinese companies exporting would just do it directly to each via national currencies without using USD, no?

One would certainly hope so.
Personally I dont necessarily buy this guys theory,I just think its interesting that sales of phones seem to have surged so much.Then again I think that its just as likely that china is simply no longer willing to tow the western line on iran when it comes to western sanctions/economic warfare,and frankly who could blame them.

 

[aryobarzan]

Iranian Petro-chemical exports soon will surpass oil sales ( $ 16 billion dollars last year )

Iran’s petrchem output to rise by 14.2% until March​

Tuesday, 02 May 2023 7:34 PM [ Last Update: Tuesday, 02 May 2023 7:34 PM ]

Iran’s production of petrochemicals will reach 80 million mt by March 2024.
Iran has plans to increase its total annual production of petrochemicals by some 14.2% in the calendar year to late March, according to a senior official in the state-run National Petrochemical Company (NPC).
NPC’s head of planning and development Hassan Abbaszadeh said on Tuesday that annual output of petrochemicals in Iran is expected to reach 80 million metric tons (mt), up from 70 million mt reported for the year to late March this year.
Abbaszadeh said total production capacity in the Iranian petrochemical industry is around 93 million mt per year, adding that feedstock supplied to plants across the country is around 47.5 million mt of which some 70% is natural gas.
The NPC official said Iran sold some 40 million mt of petrochemical products worth $27 billion in the year to late March of which some 28 million mt were exported to other countries, generating $16 billion in hard currency revenues for the country.
He said a bulk of development plans introduced for the Iranian petrochemical sector would focus on increased output of six basic products, including ethylene and propylene.
He said current output capacity of basic petrochemicals in Iran is around 58 million mt, making the country the second largest supplier of those products in the region after Saudi Arabia.

 

[Luosifen]

One would certainly hope so.
Personally I dont necessarily buy this guys theory,I just think its interesting that sales of phones seem to have surged so much.Then again I think that its just as likely that china is simply no longer willing to tow the western line on iran when it comes to western sanctions/economic warfare,and frankly who could blame them.

Previously a lot of Chinese smartphones would've had many American components inside them as well making them subject to American sanctions, but since American bans on semiconductors and other high tech sectors came into effect Chinese manufacturers have been switching to domestic suppliers and IPs that don't need to bother with American sanction shenanigans. I'd expect the stuff exported to Iran to be de-Americanized products, if not fully Chinese. Huawei for example would love to increase HarmonyOS global market share so it can outcompete Apple and Google, after all.

 

[aryobarzan]

Previously a lot of Chinese smartphones would've had many American components inside them as well making them subject to American sanctions, but since American bans on semiconductors and other high tech sectors came into effect Chinese manufacturers have been switching to domestic suppliers and IPs that don't need to bother with American sanction shenanigans. I'd expect the stuff exported to Iran to be de-Americanized products, if not fully Chinese. Huawei for example would love to increase HarmonyOS global market share so it can outcompete Apple and Google, after all.

Two years ago Iran's import bill for the cell phones was a whopping $3 billion dollars..they put a stop on that...so $ 0.5 billion import from China still high and is not good..Iran should buy license from China and set up a factory in country.