Iranian Chill Thread

[SalarHaqq]

I have to strongly disagree with you here, Salar. UNSC resolutions are binding and this particular resolution can be used as a ground for condemning Iran over "confiscated arms sent by Iran" at the UNSC later. So, one may interpret it as Russia planting the seeds for the West to put pressure on Iran after the nuclear case is closed until 2025. By making this move, Russia is putting Iran at a very vulnerable position.

UNSC resolutions are of tremendous importance. This could also lead to an unprecedented escalation in Yemen.

The UN Security Council arms embargo against Ansarallah dates back to April, 2015.

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Yemen (NGF)​

In reaction to the conflict and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Yemen the UNSC imposed in April 2015 an arms embargo on several armed groups in the country, in particular the so-called Houthi rebels. The embargo is not time limited.

https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/yemen/yemen

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Russia and China didn't oppose their veto back then either. So the UNSC could have tried to take action against Iran in relation to the war in Yemen for the past seven years, yet they don't seem to have considered it to be feasible in practice, or their case to be strong enough. Iranian supplies to Yemen enjoy plausible deniability.

In order to maintain pressure on Iran after 2025, the west will always find some pretext, for that they aren't dependent on Russia or Yemen-related UNSC resolutions. If nonetheless they choose to invoke the Yemen arms embargo, and if Russia will still go along with them at that point in time, then Iran can and should legitimately resort to counter-measures. Until then though, I wouldn't consider Moscow's abstention at the recent UNSC vote as specifically directed against Iran.

 

[QWECXZ]

The UN Security Council arms embargo against Ansarallah dates back to April, 2015. It is not new.

_____

Yemen (NGF)​

In reaction to the conflict and deteriorating humanitarian situation in Yemen the UNSC imposed in April 2015 an arms embargo on several armed groups in the country, in particular the so-called Houthi rebels. The embargo is not time limited.

https://www.sipri.org/databases/embargoes/un_arms_embargoes/yemen/yemen

_____

Back then neither Russia nor China opposed their veto either. So the UNSC could have tried to take action against Iran in relation to the war in Yemen for the past seven years, yet they don't seem to have considered it to be feasible in practice, or their case to be strong enough. Iranian supplies to Yemen enjoy plausible deniability.

In order to maintain pressure on Iran after 2025, the west will always find some pretext, for that they don't depend on Russia and UNSC resolutions about Yemen. If they choose to invoke the arms embargo on Yemen nonetheless, and if Russia will still go along with them at that point in time, then Iran can legitimately take counter-measures. But until then, I don't consider Moscow abstention at the recent UNSC vote as specifically directed against Iran.

We are talking about pressure on Iran before 2025, not after it.

Also, there are several ways that this can play out. The UNSC can determine that a situation is a threat to international peace and security. A terrorist organization may very well be deemed as a threat to peace. Further steps in this direction could be to put Houthies under Chapter VII of the UN charter and push them towards Article 42. Also, usually one resolution alone does not make a strong case. If they can stage a show to frame Iran as arming the Houthies, then a new excuse like the nuclear case will be opened at the UNSC for us. Russia and China both understand this, but they are deliberately putting Iran in a vulnerable position again.

Meanwhile, the fact that China and Russia both voted yes in 2015 right after the JCPOA is in fact a solid proof of their intentions and why they cannot be trusted and why Iran should not in any way align itself with Russia or China on the issue of the invasion of Ukraine.

 

[SalarHaqq]

We are talking about pressure on Iran before 2025, not after it.

Also, there are several ways that this can play out. The UNSC can determine that a situation is a threat to international peace and security. A terrorist organization may very well be deemed as a threat to peace. Further steps in this direction could be to put Houthies under Chapter VII of the UN charter and push them towards Article 42. Also, usually one resolution alone does not make a strong case. If they can stage a show to frame Iran as arming the Houthies, then a new excuse like the nuclear case will be opened at the UNSC for us. Russia and China both understand this, but they are deliberately putting Iran in a vulnerable position again.

Meanwhile, the fact that China and Russia both voted yes in 2015 right after the JCPOA is in fact a solid proof of their intentions and why they cannot be trusted and why Iran should not in any way align itself with Russia or China on the issue of the invasion of Ukraine.

Their votes at the UNSC up until now do not prove that they intend to use these resolutions to have Iran condemned by the same UNSC at a later stage. This will be proven if and when the UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran under the pretext of the war in Yemen, with Russia and China joining the bandwagon. Which to date has not been the case, and for which there's no guarantee that it is going to take place in future.

Therefore, this doesn't warrant Iran aligning on the west on the issue of Ukraine - which is what voting to condemn the Russian operation would have boiled down to. Especially since even if the above quoted speculation was to materialize, it will still be a western plot against Iran in the first place, with Russia and China playing second fiddle. But as said, this is speculative not factual, and it is unlikely to occur.

Also, Iran chose an intermediate position in relation to the war in Ukraine: it did not exactly align itself on Russia, but also refrained from condemning Moscow's operation while insisting above all on the role of the US as the main party responsible, which is a sophisticated and sound diplomatic posture.

 

[QWECXZ]

To, their votes at the UNSC up until now do not prove that they intend to use these resolution to have Iran condemned by the same UNSC. This will be proven if and when the UNSC imposes sanctions on Iran under the pretext of the war in Yemen, with Russia and China joining the bandwagon. Which to date has not been the case, and for which there's no guarantee that it is going to take place in future.

Therefore, this doesn't warrant Iran aligning on the west on the issue of Ukraine - which is what voting to condemn the Russian operation would have boiled down to. Especially since even if the above quoted speculation was to materialize, it will still be a western plot against Iran in the first place, with Russia

Yet, even if so, it doesn't deny the obvious fact that it does give China and Russia leverage over Iran and put Iran at a vulnerable position, and at a weaker position regionally. Whether a UNSC resolution on Iran will be passed later or not is irrelevant to the obvious logical conclusion that it can be used to manipulate Iran.

 

[SalarHaqq]

Yet, even if so, it doesn't deny the obvious fact that it does give China and Russia leverage over Iran and put Iran at a vulnerable position, and at a weaker position regionally. Whether a UNSC resolution on Iran will be passed later or not is irrelevant to the obvious logical conclusion that it can be used to manipulate Iran.

Not going to happen.

 

[QWECXZ]

They can try, but it is unlikely to affect Iran's core interests or geostrategic position.

If you had said this before the JCPOA, I would've agreed with you. But sadly we both saw how 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions on Iran finally convinced the leadership to negotiate over our nuclear program and accept the JCPOA.

Again, before the Raeesi administration, I blamed the JCPOA on the Europhile liberals in the reformist camp. But recent events and the fact that as we speak, the National Security Council is busy studying the restoration of the JCPOA, shows that the JCPOA was in fact a decision made by the system and the UNSC resolutions were a big part of why they had to do it.

من نمی‌گم ایران نباید از فرصت کنونی برای بهره کشی از روسیه استفاده کنه. البته اگه پنجره‌اش باز بشه
من دارم می‌گم باید حواسمون باشه و خیلی مراقب باشیم که رودست نخوریم
اینی که فکر کنیم روسیه دیگه بخشی از نظم کنونی جهان نیست اشتباه هست

حتی اینی که فکر کنیم چین و روسیه به دنبال نظم نوین جهانی هستند که غرب رو کنار بزنند هم اشتباه هست

ایران باید به هیچ کدوم از این بازی‌ها توجهی نکنه و هر جا که شد و فرصتی گیرش اومد استفاده کنه. بقیه‌اش خاله بازی هست و به ما مربوط نیست​

 

[TheImmortal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499185800172474371

I thought everything that China made is superior to the West

 

[unrequitted_love_suzy]

 

[OldTwilight]

همه اوکراینی‌ها اینطوری نیستند، دار و دسته گارد ملی‌ای که رئیس جمهور صهیونیستشون ساخته اینطوری هستند
ضمناً همه اسلاوها اینطوری هستند. از خود روسیه که بیشترین اسلاوها رو داره بگیر تا لهستان و چک و اسلواکی و صربستان و کرواسی و هر فاحشه‌خون شرق اروپایی دیگه که به ذهنت برسه. همشون شدیداً نژادپرست هستند
روسیه و انگلیس خبیث‌ترین دشمنان تاریخ ایران بودند و هستند

همین روسیه حروم زاده ۴ بار تو شورای امنیت به قطعنامه‌های علیه ما رای مثبت داد تا مجبور بشیم برجام رو با اون شرایط امضاء کنیم
همین روسیه حروم زاده موقعی که خطر زدن تاسیسات هسته‌ای ایران خیلی زیاد بود سر دادن اس-۳۰۰ بازی درآورد

همین روسیه حروم زاده قطعنامه‌ای که گذاشت تصویب بشه باعث می‌شه همه کشورها حمایت از حوثی‌های یمن رو به عنوان حمایت از تروریسم بشناسن و از این به بعد فرستادن سلاح برای یمن بسیار سخت‌تر می‌شه و اگه ایران گیر بیافته دوباره یه پرونده جدید تو شورای امنیت علیه ایران باز می‌شه جدا از پرونده هسته‌ای و می‌شه بهانه مذاکره کردن و تحریم دوباره

همین روسیه حروم زاده از زمانی که پای نجسشون به سوریه باز شد ایران رو کنار زد و سوریه رو با ترکیه و آمریکا قسمت کرد

همین روسیه حروم زاده همین الان تو برجام داره به ایران فشار میاره که توافق کن تا ما مجبور بشیم اورانیوم غنی شدمون رو دو دستی تقدیم آقایون کنیم

همین روسیه حروم زاده سال‌ها ایران رو سر نیروگاه بوشهر دوشید و مفت خوری کرد

می‌خوای باز هم برات یادآوری کنم چه گوه‌هایی خوردن؟

روسیه و غرب خودشون بلد هستند با هم دیگه مشغول بشن و هم دیگه رو جر بدن. نیازی به کاری از طرف ما کردن نیست. خودشون بیش از یک قرن پیشینه درگیری و جر دادن هم دیگه رو دارن​

سلام پس چرا از توی منجلاب افتادن روس ها ، ناراحتی .... ما باید بیشتر روس هارو توی این وضعیت هل بدهیم

 

[sha ah]

Ukrainians already starting to get fed up with their current situation. Being sent forward like lambs to the slaughter in order to advance the agenda of the neo con elite / military industrial complex in the US.

 

[Oldman1]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499243470682144768

https://twitter.com/search?q=Melitopol&src=typed_query

In this link in newsweek article I believe it is the same scene, different view.

Russian Defense Ministry Says Almost 500 Soldiers Dead in Ukraine Invasion

Russia estimates its soldier deaths at 498, though Ukraine estimates that more than 7,000 Russian soldiers have died.

www.newsweek.com

 

[sha ah]

A few funny cartoons about Ukraine. The first one was published by the Ukrainian government on Twitter. Some of them made me laugh.

 

[sha ah]

 

[Messerschmitt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499341566019833863

https://twitter.com/x/status/1499343338339635200

 

[QWECXZ]

سلام پس چرا از توی منجلاب افتادن روس ها ، ناراحتی .... ما باید بیشتر روس هارو توی این وضعیت هل بدهیم

با رای مثبت دادن به قطعنامه مجمع عمومی؟ یه چیزی بگو که شدنی باشه. رای مثبت ما مثلاً چه تاثیری می‌تونه داشته باشه؟
روسیه خیلی زرنگ‌تر و کثیف‌تر از این صحبت‌ها هست​