Indian Navy Chief over Gwadar

[SABRE]

Gwadar port, given the current situation, is only suitable for China and not the CARs since Afghanistan is in no position to allow transit and the present govt is not very amenable towards Pakistan.

Again the Bharak Karnad mentality. Not looking beyond the present & the animosity. The situation in Afghanistan is a major problem but that does not wipe out the importance of these routs & ports. The issue is of getting oil & gas pipe-lines through Afghanistan as for the rest (even though shortest travel rout is through Afghanistan) the ancient silk rout is being reconnected between Pakistan, China & CARs. If you haven't read its not just Karakoram Highway that is the connecting point but also the railways are being laid down. So the plans remain intact.

India too has greater economic & strategic interests in CARs. The strategic interests were checked by the SCO while Economic interestests are marred by geographic dis-contiguity. The only connecting point between CARs & India is Pakistan (for economic rout). It is in Indian favor to actually cooperate with Pakistan on these terms.

Plus, though the Pakistani governments primary objective is to have economic influence on CARs via providing them ports, Gwadar is not just about Central Asia. It has lot more to it.

Conversely, Iran has not fomented any Shia upsurge in Afghanistan and hence the relationship of the govts are not volatile, though the US influence cannot be ruled out.

In the event, there is a necessity for Afghanistan to boost its economy by allowing transit facilities to CAR from the Arabian Sea and the US permits the same, Afghanistan has to look to Iran since the situation in areas bordering Pakistan is a 'no go' because of the turmoil, while that towards Iran is relatively calm.

You do realize that the biggest threat to Shiaism in the region is from Afghan sunnism. If anything Iran is as displeased by Afghanistan as any other country.

Their relations have been record low under Hakmatyar govt & than under Taliban. & right now as you your self said the Americans are present so you can guess. They are resenting the IPI gas-pipeline but cant do anything but as far as Afghan affairs are concerned, well I believe they have direct decision making powers there.

Ethnically, culturally, linguistically & religiously Afghans are more close to Pakistan than anyone else & regardless of current tensions the only hope for Afghans has been Pakistan. Even today if they have to run they come to Pakistan.

Your understanding comes from what you read, we actually see this stuff 1st hand.

Unless, the Pashtuns are controlled, calmed and made peaceable, the importance of Gwadar over Chabahar is certainly diminished in so far as being a trading hub and an opening to the sea for landlocked countries.

Chabahar is strategically more important since it located right at the mouth of the Straits of Hormuz and thus can control shipping in the event there is a naval strength worthy of note, be it of any country.

Even if it was at the way open mouth of Hormuz the question would always remain who is going to port there? Not the major oil consumer states like USA & USA would certainly not like its Europeans allies to dock there. Americans don't go beyond UAE ports. On the other hand Gwadar provides them open mouth away from Iran. The Americans ships have just recently been harassed by the Iranians at Hormuz.

In so far as gas being projected to Pakistan over Iran by Qatar and Oman, one does not carry coals to Newcastle. The Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said here Saturday that Iran holds 27.5 trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas reserves. (Oil Minister: Iran owns 27.5 trillion cm of proven gas reserves).

You didn't get the grasp did you? Pakistan too has its gas reserves & the one in use still has 15 years life in it. Qatar is into the straight of Hormoz, as I said ships have trouble maneuvering there, especially since many of them have to avoid Iran. Thats why Qatar wants oil & gas pipe-line to go through Pakistan.

The pipe-line from Qatar is to travel to KSA into UAE into Oman & from there via sea to Pakistan's Gwadar. Though Oman itself is open its Musandam is into the straight of Hormuz , hence Oman wants to inject its gas pipe-line into the Qatar's pipe-line.

The other state which has been invited is Bahrain since its way into Hormuz.

These Middle Eastern states can send their pipelines directly to Dubai but there suspicion on Iran is growing & want open ports, for which they believe Gwadar is better option - Out of narrow Hormoz ... Open & away from Iranian threats.

If you go to Dubai & you know some big business people ask them about Gwadar. The Dubai investors themselves are very much interested in working via Gwadar (which the state of Dubai doesn't like). The Sharjah & Abu Zehbi have already started investment in Karachi & Gwadar. Their big business such as Al-Etihad, Emaar, Wateen, etc groups have already established themselves here. In fact, the UAE based Indians are moving here.

Now are they all fools to come to Gwadar & Karachi & leave Iranian ports? There are geo-strategic & geo-political factors at play here.

When India and Pakistan were in an eyeball armed "peace", nothing substantial occurred that made foreign capital leave India.

What were you sleeping or weren't born in 2001? The state department told the Americans to leave India & Pakistan ASAP & that was "LIVE" telecast.

After that began the Gates Mission.

Another "good thing" was that the Indian businessmen got pissed & pressured government to make peace with Pakistan - not only because their business was being harmed but also they see Pakistan as big market (with 6 most populas country)

The issue is not a nuclear war, but a naval blockade as in 1971.

If there is a nuclear war, then who will be left to worry?

There would a lot of people to worry.

Why should India hinder oil supply to other nations? In a scenario of the unlikely fresh Indo Pak conflict, it will be to hinder Pakistan and not the world. In fact, hindering the world of its oil will be totally irrational.

Much of world's oil goes through Arabian Sea, into the Indian Ocean & than around the world. When you fight in the Arabian sea than wouldn't this impact the ships carrying oil? Wouldn't they avoid coming to conflict zone? It would be Pakistani water so all the int. pressure would be on India to move out not on Pakistan.

As far as naval warfare is concerned all facets be in air, sea or undersea is taken care of by the flotilla sailing. If they don't cater for the same, then there would be something drastically wrong. One does not expose capital ships for target practice. At least, that is not the teaching in the Indian Navy.

Is that why an Indian Submarine collided with a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea?

As far as Operation Brasstack or Operation Parakrama is concerned, it was not due to Pakistan that they were scaled down. So, giving Zia credit is misplaced.

Ah ... come out of the Indian books. Not only Zia wounded the Indians he poured salt on it by visiting India soon after to see cricket match. Its an open case, even discussed at international level. I think Kings College London professors carried out a small study on Zia's strategy.

It would be interesting if you could post some of the commentaries of the Iranian think tanks who feel Gwadar is a better spin off for Iran to its own ports.

I can but what would you give for jumping into pile of 1000s of pages for hours to look for only few pages? (really I would need something, jokes apart)

No one is stating in India that one has to go to war. It is indeed wonderful to know that you move around with Pakistani strategist. That way, it will be most beneficial to know their views if you post them. Actually, those who deal with wars or have been in actual wars, are the real ones who hate it with all their heart since they have experienced the death and destruction that is so glorified by those who sit back and clap!

Well their input is to make friends with India, become dependent on each other which will decrease the chances of war & conflict. That is why they are heavily pursuing Conflict Aviodance Measure (CAMs) & Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) & Strengthening the peace.

& these measures have actually been laid down by former military men.

I cant say same is from Indian side but there is a relaxed approach compared to what we have seen in the past.

Though I have not understood as to how India benefits from Gwadar. The day China has a Blue water Navy capability, she will not sit back in their ports and allow their boats to rust their serviceable life!

Think of it. India doesn't have to enter Hormoz & waste fuel while it can dock at Gwadar or Karachi. From Gwadar/Karachi to Bombay/Ahmedabad is a very short rout. This saves lots of money.

India can get the extension of pipe-lines at Gwadar into India (Like IPI).

CARs trade to India can take place via Gwadar but it would much feasible to provide them land rout into India.

Indian businessmen can invest in Gwadar & Karachi which in turn would be beneficial to the region. This is better for both countries than going to UAE & investing money there which only ends up in the benefits of Arabs & Westerners - though we do get good amount of money.

China going blue water doesn't matter. Indian business at Gwadar also insures heavy benefits for China. Plus Chinese won't think India as a threat to its interest in the Arabian Sea. It will cater to its own interest while India to cater to its own.

So far I don't see this happening though, sadly enough. Of all the things US probably wont like Pak-China-India economic patch up.
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Just a small thing I would like to add. Don't think that I am undermining any Indian here. There are different ways to look at things. Even if Iranian ports have better location you have to think how it is in favor of India or everyone else? From any point of the world you enter the Arabian Sea & move towards the Hormoz the nearest ports will always be Gwadar & Karachi. Would you prefer to save fuel & time there or waste it going into the Hormoz? This is especially a concern many western ships which have to avoid Iranians in the Hormoz.

& the military idea behind Gwadar is to have strategic depth & move away from India in a way that India itself does not prefer to attack it. See during the war both sides would no doubt try to attack each other's ports to neutralize each other's naval strikes. But since India would not like to hinder its own trade & oil supply in the Middle East (UAE, Qatar, Oman & Bahrain) it would not make any naval ventures there.

What does this imply? This implies that Gwadar has "deterrent value" not aggressive. The objective is not to block Indian trade in any case, its just to send signals to India that this is not the place you want to mess at. The Indian concerns at Gwadar is not Pakistan's capability to block Indian trade but the presence of Chinese & that is something India will have to live with.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Again the Bharak Karnad mentality. Not looking beyond the present & the animosity. The situation in Afghanistan is a major problem but that does not wipe out the importance of these routs & ports. The issue is of getting oil & gas pipe-lines through Afghanistan as for the rest (even though shortest travel rout is through Afghanistan) the ancient silk rout is being reconnected between Pakistan, China & CARs. If you haven't read its not just Karakoram Highway that is the connecting point but also the railways are being laid down. So the plans remain intact.

I do not think that Afghanistan is going to go away in a jiffy. Therefore, the opening of the routes to CAR will have to wait. The economy of countries will not wait. In fact, the US is more interested in the Afghanistan crisis abating since they will be able to get the TAP through.

I am aware of the railways. It will be an engineering feat.

India too has greater economic & strategic interests in CARs. The strategic interests were checked by the SCO while Economic interestests are marred by geographic dis-contiguity. The only connecting point between CARs & India is Pakistan (for economic rout). It is in Indian favor to actually cooperate with Pakistan on these terms.

The CAR is a part of the SCO and so that is taken care of.

Chabahar port is the conduit to CAR for India.

Plus, though the Pakistani governments primary objective is to have economic influence on CARs via providing them ports, Gwadar is not just about Central Asia. It has lot more to it.

Gwadar is for CAR and China as I understand. What would be lot more?

You do realize that the biggest threat to Shiaism in the region is from Afghan sunnism. If anything Iran is as displeased by Afghanistan as any other country.

I am not aware of any animosity with Iran except that there is no warming up because of the US influence.

Their relations have been record low under Hakmatyar govt & than under Taliban. & right now as you your self said the Americans are present so you can guess. They are resenting the IPI gas-pipeline but cant do anything but as far as Afghan affairs are concerned, well I believe they have direct decision making powers there.

Hekmatayar was too brash for anyone's liking.

IPI will not go through because it clashes with TAP and the US will do everything to ensure that this IPI does not go through.

Ethnically, culturally, linguistically & religiously Afghans are more close to Pakistan than anyone else & regardless of current tensions the only hope for Afghans has been Pakistan. Even today if they have to run they come to Pakistan.

Your understanding comes from what you read, we actually see this stuff 1st hand.

Conversely, Afghanistan feels that the Pashtuns of Pakistan are closer ethnically, culturally etc than others of Pakistan.

That is why they are not ready to recognise the Durand Line.

Even if it was at the way open mouth of Hormuz the question would always remain who is going to port there? Not the major oil consumer states like USA & USA would certainly not like its Europeans allies to dock there. Americans don't go beyond UAE ports. On the other hand Gwadar provides them open mouth away from Iran. The Americans ships have just recently been harassed by the Iranians at Hormuz.

Chabahar is a gateway to CAR and so anyone who wishes to trade with CAR would use the port.

The Americans and the Europeans would port anywhere it is convenient for them. Iran today is hostile, who know how the wind blows in the near future? The hostility with the Europeans is much less than that of the US. In fact, France is very chummy.

You didn't get the grasp did you? Pakistan too has its gas reserves & the one in use still has 15 years life in it. Qatar is into the straight of Hormoz, as I said ships have trouble maneuvering there, especially since many of them have to avoid Iran. Thats why Qatar wants oil & gas pipe-line to go through Pakistan.


The pipe-line from Qatar is to travel to KSA into UAE into Oman & from there via sea to Pakistan's Gwadar. Though Oman itself is open its Musandam is into the straight of Hormuz , hence Oman wants to inject its gas pipe-line into the Qatar's pipe-line.

The other state which has been invited is Bahrain since its way into Hormuz.

These Middle Eastern states can send their pipelines directly to Dubai but there suspicion on Iran is growing & want open ports, for which they believe Gwadar is better option - Out of narrow Hormoz ... Open & away from Iranian threats.

If you go to Dubai & you know some big business people ask them about Gwadar. The Dubai investors themselves are very much interested in working via Gwadar (which the state of Dubai doesn't like). The Sharjah & Abu Zehbi have already started investment in Karachi & Gwadar. Their big business such as Al-Etihad, Emaar, Wateen, etc groups have already established themselves here. In fact, the UAE based Indians are moving here.

Now are they all fools to come to Gwadar & Karachi & leave Iranian ports? There are geo-strategic & geo-political factors at play here.

Qatar wanting the pipeline to go through Pakistan is of no concern to Iran. They are entering into negotiations bilaterally with consumer nations.

This gas would be used by Pakistan and China if it goes to Gwadar. Nothing wrong in that. It in no way diminishes the importance of Chabahar for trade into CAR, more so, when the route through Afghanistan from the Pakistani side is not open.

How does the port of Chabahar have any connection with who is investing in Dubai?

What were you sleeping or weren't born in 2001? The state department told the Americans to leave India & Pakistan ASAP & that was "LIVE" telecast.

After that began the Gates Mission.

Another "good thing" was that the Indian businessmen got pissed & pressured government to make peace with Pakistan - not only because their business was being harmed but also they see Pakistan as big market (with 6 most populas country)

I would have loved to sleep, but I was in an eyeball to eyeball scenario.

US may have given the travel note, but none cared.

Didn't you read that too?

Indian businessmen were not pissed and they do not decide foreign policy!

Pakistan maybe a big market, but trade is not open in that way. Most of it is routed through Dubai.

There would a lot of people to worry.

Good for them.

Much of world's oil goes through Arabian Sea, into the Indian Ocean & than around the world. When you fight in the Arabian sea than wouldn't this impact the ships carrying oil? Wouldn't they avoid coming to conflict zone? It would be Pakistani water so all the int. pressure would be on India to move out not on Pakistan.

What do you mean fighting in the Arabian Sea? Not understood.

If you are meaning fighting in the Middle East, then the oil will not even reach Gwadar port!

Is that why an Indian Submarine collided with a cargo ship in the Arabian Sea?

One has to have adequate number of submarines for it to collide.

Ah ... come out of the Indian books. Not only Zia wounded the Indians he poured salt on it by visiting India soon after to see cricket match. Its an open case, even discussed at international level. I think Kings College London professors carried out a small study on Zia's strategy.

You are entitled to your views, but I don't have to go with any studies or dramatics of Zia because I was a participant and I knew what exactly was the aim and why what happened, happened.

I can but what would you give for jumping into pile of 1000s of pages for hours to look for only few pages? (really I would need something, jokes apart)

In other words, you have nothing!

Well their input is to make friends with India, become dependent on each other which will decrease the chances of war & conflict. That is why they are heavily pursuing Conflict Aviodance Measure (CAMs) & Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) & Strengthening the peace.

& these measures have actually been laid down by former military men.

I cant say same is from Indian side but there is a relaxed approach compared to what we have seen in the past.

It really is immaterial what people are doing and conjecturing.

Think of it. India doesn't have to enter Hormoz & waste fuel while it can dock at Gwadar or Karachi. From Gwadar/Karachi to Bombay/Ahmedabad is a very short rout. This saves lots of money.

I presume India has some good reason for not doing so.

India can get the extension of pipe-lines at Gwadar into India (Like IPI).

The IPI route is different. It is not just a straight line and be done with it. It depends on the markets and terminals for processing and things like that. Just can't engineer the established infrastructure just because any one desires that India should use the Gwadar port!

CARs trade to India can take place via Gwadar but it would much feasible to provide them land rout into India.

Indian businessmen can invest in Gwadar & Karachi which in turn would be beneficial to the region. This is better for both countries than going to UAE & investing money there which only ends up in the benefits of Arabs & Westerners - though we do get good amount of money.

India can invests wherever it likes and preferably the UAE is a centre of their interest over other places.

China going blue water doesn't matter. Indian business at Gwadar also insures heavy benefits for China. Plus Chinese won't think India as a threat to its interest in the Arabian Sea. It will cater to its own interest while India to cater to its own.

Can't understand how it will benefit China if India uses Gwadar! One rather trade directly with China than through third countries. Haven't understood your logic.

 

[roadrunner]

The Indians are making a big mistake if they think they will be able to trade with central asia through Chabahar. The Americans are supposedly not friendly with Iran and want to shut out its exports to other countries. Yet Iran wants to supply central asia through afghanistan. That can only happen as long as the Northern Alliance have American support. Soon as that dries up, another government takes charge that will probably be more friendly to the Pakistani route. It could easily happen. China though will always allow trade into central asia by the Pakistani route. Of course this all depends on the Islamic fundamentalists of Iran being in power, since if a secular government takes charge, they may not be so friendly to India. It's a risky and expensive route India are risking.

 

[ahussains]

Such nice post and so details so much intresting

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

More that worrying about Iran, the US is keen to wean away the CARs from Russian dependency so as to get a tighter grip of the Russian underbelly. The US overtures to that end has been a mixed bag. This would be in consonance with the US strategy of drawing a ring around Russia, wherein they have been successful in other ex Soviet Republics bordering Europe.

With India not being totally a stranger to Russia, the Indian presence will not create alarms in Russia, and yet at the same time, have non Russian influence in the CARs and that being beneficial to all concerned.

The US support for the Northern Alliance will hardy dry up since of the two, that is, Taliban and NA, the NA is preferable to the US, as also to Russia. It is also preferable to Iran.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

More that worrying about Iran, the US is keen to wean away the CARs from Russian dependency so as to get a tighter grip of the Russian underbelly. The US overtures to that end has been a mixed bag. This would be in consonance with the US strategy of drawing a ring around Russia, wherein they have been successful in other ex Soviet Republics bordering Europe.

With India not being totally a stranger to Russia, the Indian presence will not create alarms in Russia, and yet at the same time, have non Russian influence in the CARs and that being beneficial to all concerned.

The US support for the Northern Alliance will hardy dry up since of the two, that is, Taliban and NA, the NA is preferable to the US, as also to Russia. It is also preferable to Iran.

You are right about that! The support for NA seems to get more and more in coming years but the Issue with CIS is that they donot want any trade via Iran and one other thing is that; US letting afghanistan share trade with Iran is a day Dream. US and Iran are not getting close enough in next few years. So if NA is in Afghanistan Supported by US, it doesn't mean US will let Iran use the routes to booster its Trade with CIS and that is If CIS agrees, which also seems less likely.

 

[Contrarian]

First of all let me say in the beginning itself that with regards to Naval issues, you talk very childishly. I am sure you dont have great insight in the workings of a Navy or the technologies used. You are talking like a child.

Written by whom? Indians? If Indians than of course it would be a bias.

The simple reason why Gwadar has advantage in the region:

1. Major powers, especially the western states, are not willing to port there.

2. When you enter the Arabian sea th nearest points are Gwadar & Karachi for docking. [The distance between Dubai & Gwadar is also very short (mere few hours by sea ... 1:20mins by air)].

3. Provides shortest (& economical) rout to Central Asian trade ... this is specially important for their oil trade. ---- As I said the Central Asians, especially Uzbekistan do not view Iran's influence very kindly. & their own analysis suggests that they should take Pakistani rout.

Like Brigadier said. I am not about to rehash old points. And the articles are non Indian, that should satisfy you and moreover already posted in this forum in the Naval section. Look for it.

Again the question ... who is docking there? From the major regional states its India only. The Americans, several Europeans & Middle Easterns don't get along with the Iranians. Plus as I said when you enter the Arabian sea the nearest points are Karachi & Gwadar. Would you like to sail into the enclosed straight of Harmoz or open sea? --- one reason why Qatar & Oman are considering oil & Gas pipe-line to Pakistan & not Iran.

Ofcourse it could never be the simple fact of Pakistan also needing oil and gas and Iran being a surplus gas economy!!

Reality is ambiguous & oblivious to you isn't it? In 2001 when Pakistan & Indian armies were eye-to-eye at borders what happened? The economy went down & the major economic loss was on Indian side as Americans & Europeans started to leave. Think if two Navies take to Arbian sea capable of launching nuclear strike. This time it wont just be India & Pakistan, it would involve Middle East, Iran, India & Pakistan. Now if India carries out strikes in Arabian Sea think of the International Trade & India's own investment in the UAE & Qatar. Trade from there would stop, oil wont reach India & Indian goods wont reach these areas. India crossing into Pakistani waters would also be lowering the Nuclear Thrashold, next thing you know the Americans & Europeans are leaving in fear that nuclear war can take place. India has much too lose than Pakistan.

This is too stupid. Your logic is because India has more, it has more to lose and thus it will not want to go on an offensive.

India is not carrying out 'strikes' in the Arabian sea, they are merely bombing Pakistan and destroying her Navy, it has nothing to do with Oman or UAE or Qatar unless Pakistan decides to sink every ship of Hormuz as Pakistan cannot selectively block Indian trade routes. Its all or nothing in the Hormuz for Pakistan. Pakistan CANNOT block Indian sea trade, get this clear first of all. Do you even know how a naval blockade is enforced?

Now in 2ns Scenario think if/when Central Asia oil & gas starts flowing from Gwadar. This is the oil the Americans, Europeans, Africans, Asians & Australians badly want. If this oil trade is hindered in Arabian Sea, think of the pressure of these states on India to move itself away from the port.

There is no pressure on India to move away. India is blockading Pakistani ports and is against the Pakistani Navy. It has NOTHING to do with blocking oil in Hormuz. Should Pakistan take this step thinking that it would hurt India, the world would comdemn Pakistan not India. I point out the Iran Iraq tanker wars for reference.

As I said not everything is designed to be anti-Indian but at full advantage of Pakistan. Why would Pakistan block Indian Trade out of the blue when we can take advantage of it. It would better if we get India itself to port at Gwadar than sail in to the narrow Hormuz.

Pakistan cannot block Indian trade even if it wants to. Either it blocks the entire Hormuz or it does not. There are only two ways. And if it decides to block Hormuz, then it would have to send its ships or subs there , which are easy to destroy for the IN, as its a small area relatively.

As for capability, you must not undermine the submarines as well as PN. After all, with all those expensive Naval Ships & gadgets India could not stop Pakistani ships from taking out Somnat port in 1965 & in 1971 got the taste of Daphne Class Submarine when it sunk INS Kukri. The surface ships may not have stealth advantage of subs but they are equally lethal.

Again, you sound like someone who does not even have the most basic idea of Naval warfare.

I hate General Zia UlHaq, I always have. But I do applaud him for his strategy during Indian military exercise "Operation Brass Tacks." Indians brought in large number of forces with live ammunitions at Pakistani & Chinese borders. Pakistan was busy handling Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. When Zia learned that Indian exercise seems less an exercise & more a deployment he just simply deployed artilleries & where? On the Sindh & Punjab border & not jsut the Indo-Pak border. What happened? Indians got confused, started to protest & next thing you know India pulling back & signing an agreement that from now on exercises would take place over 50Kms away from border with lesser live ammunitions, inform each other prior to exercise & invite external observers.

So you see all you need is a good strategy not technology. You can debate all you want but IN knows what lurks in the Arabian Sea.

Bloody hell, the way you say "lurks" in the Arabian Sea! Trying to make it sound mysterious?

Mate, IN owns the entire IOR apart from USN. Get that through first. PN cannot even think of challenging the IN as of now. Maybe that changes in the future, but from the way it is looking right now, its not going to change.

& the int. community will scream foul on Pakistan if Pakistan blocks the routs. Pakistan wont. As I said it holds deterrent value not aggression. The idea is just signal to India that this could be done & the Indians know about it. Thats why there is so much fuss. IN actions would bring foul screams on India not Pakistan.

You are completely mistaken, read what i have typed above carefully.

Yes the ACs travel with a party but that doesn't mean its out of the threat of the subs. Just sinking an AC would undermine the entire party fleet with it.

AC are meant for Fleet Air Defence in the IN context. Even taking out the AC would not undermine the CBG, it would become a normal SAG but a very potent one. Just without aircover. ANd to take out the AC you have to take out the escorts.

As for the Indian subs they wont know where the PN has laid the anti-sub mines while PN would of course know abt it.

You really dont have any idea how these things work do you?

You are again undermining the PN. Think in future. 4 Agosta-70s, 3 Agosta-90Bs & 3 U-214. 6 of them capable of launching nuclear cruise missiles.

Puh-Lease! U-214 deal is not even signed, neither are there indications it will be signed soon. Neither is Babur sub launched. Right now, Pakistan would be working on making Babur just an AshM, let alone sub launched. Next, to launch it from A-90B's youd have to consider their cannisters width among other things. As i said last time, stop putting across your wishes and views as facts.

Too high deterrent value, India would think more than 10 times before going in.

Ofcourse India would think 10 times, heck 20 times if need be. But if there is a conflict, there wont be any cold feets.

China obstained & I don't think Russia voted against them. Instead offered them enriched fissile material.

Please read up.Salim has already posted on this.

Thats a wrong strategy. Play more Chess. I say you build a fort, we capture it.

Incidentally i do play chess. But please, we are discussing something here, dont bring in stupid replies. My post about a fort was to give an example.

Let me tell you something & many of your Indian strategists also believe in this. India wants to go global but only thing keeps dragging it back at regional level & that is Pakistan. Every Indian comes up & goes coercive 'we would do this & that.' Why not say be friends? This Bharat Karnad mentality has to go. I have been around the master minds of Pakistan's defence & foreign policy & not a single time they speak of war with India - including nuclear war. In fact they are not anti-Indians at all, & have rather very professional approach than emotional.

What the hell is Bharat Karnad?

I am just guessing here but your age might be in either teens or you might just have started your 20s. If you are a student of Social Sciences learn to be professional than emotional.

I am an engineer to correct your views.

The way you post i'd mistake you for a 14 year old Pakistani teen high on the 'Pakistani Paindabad' slogan!

In anycase, knowledge matters not age.

India has much to gain from Gwadar than considering it a threat. If they keep on considering it as a threat than they would of course have coercive posture against it which would than in fact turn it into a threat - especially when Chinese PLAAN ships start to escort their trade ships from South China sea to Chittagong (Bangladesh) & than to Gwadar just in fear that India might do something. As a result the back & forth PLAAN movement from South China Sea to Chittagong & than to Gwadar will hinder the Indian trade in East Asia & virtually block the Indian Ocean. In such a blockade would IN be capable of taking three fronts (China, Bangladesh & Pakistan)? I do not think so.

BD is not attacking India anytime soon, even if you want to. Neither is China in a war with Pakistan. History is a good guide. Learn from it. Its Pakistan alone with India. As always.


P.S: I just read Salim Sir's posts, they answer your questions related to Gwadar and Chabahar along with mine.

 

[SABRE]

First of all let me say in the beginning itself that with regards to Naval issues, you talk very childishly. I am sure you dont have great insight in the workings of a Navy or the technologies used. You are talking like a child.

As I said it doesn't matter what technology you have, its always the strategy. Wrong strategy means waste of technology. The Gwadar maritime strategy I just laid out is strategic option, there are operational & tactile options. Surely you do not believe PN is sailing in wooden ships with long heavy canons & the ships would be decimated in moments.

Like Brigadier said. I am not about to rehash old points. And the articles are non Indian, that should satisfy you and moreover already posted in this forum in the Naval section. Look for it.

Doesn't matter who wrote them. The credibility of the articles would either one phone call or email away for me.

Ofcourse it could never be the simple fact of Pakistan also needing oil and gas and Iran being a surplus gas economy!!

Well Duh ... Oil is what is required but its never too bad to have gas for industrial purpose.

This is too stupid. Your logic is because India has more, it has more to lose and thus it will not want to go on an offensive.

Well thats not stupid ... you denying the realities of economic disadvantages is rather more stupid. These things happen. More you have more you loose. You are larger economy in the region are you not?

India is not carrying out 'strikes' in the Arabian sea, they are merely bombing Pakistan and destroying her Navy, it has nothing to do with Oman or UAE or Qatar unless Pakistan decides to sink every ship of Hormuz as Pakistan cannot selectively block Indian trade routes. Its all or nothing in the Hormuz for Pakistan. Pakistan CANNOT block Indian sea trade, get this clear first of all. Do you even know how a naval blockade is enforced?

Thats rather a stupid thing to say. It may not have anything to do with these states but mere tension near their seas is enough to impact their economy. Right at the mouth of Hormoz is a naval conflict going on, which ship in the hell would sail through it to reach these countries?

There is no pressure on India to move away. India is blockading Pakistani ports and is against the Pakistani Navy. It has NOTHING to do with blocking oil in Hormuz. Should Pakistan take this step thinking that it would hurt India, the world would comdemn Pakistan not India. I point out the Iran Iraq tanker wars for reference.

Err. Again with the stupid denials & lack of understanding of what I am saying. By this time my 14 year old brother would have become a wise old man if I had been explaining him all this.

What did I mean by "DETERRENT VALUE" or you do not know the meaning of the term "DETERRENCE"? It means Pakistan just sending signal to India that naval ventures in Gwadar is not in its best interest & will have adverse impact on India.

Pakistan cannot block Indian trade even if it wants to. Either it blocks the entire Hormuz or it does not. There are only two ways. And if it decides to block Hormuz, then it would have to send its ships or subs there , which are easy to destroy for the IN, as its a small area relatively.

Wow ... you can find Subs in moments & destroy them??? How come the party which was well equipped to search submarines missed Daphne Sub of Pakistan in 1971 which destroyed INS Kukri & how come PNS Ghazi was moving right near the Indian aircraft carrier fleet when it was laying mines in 1965 was missed by IN? Its no easy task to search them. & Surely if you are coming into Pakistani waters PN would be attacking you haven't you thought of that?

You seem to think that gods are employed in IN & fools in PN.

Just there mere fact that subs capable of launching cruise missiles with nuclear warheads is enough for any nation not to venture in Pakistani waters with bad intentions.

Bloody hell, the way you say "lurks" in the Arabian Sea! Trying to make it sound mysterious?

Its not mysterious. You do know that Pakistan is suppose to have 9+ Subs by 2015. The naval power is not the only thing Pakistan has advantage of in the Arabian sea. If you missed out the UAE Navy & Air force are operated by Pakistani. The Mirage2000-9 & F-16E/F are flown by Pakistani pilots along with Egyptians & not to forget Pakistani air force it self.

India will have disadvantage of distance while these forces would be in reach in no time. Just to tell you the other day 2 UAE F-16E/F & 1 Mirage2000-9 arrived in Pakistan flown by Pakistani pilots, refueled & flew back. This is their routine flight. In combat these soldiers will not hesitate to take advantage of UAE equipment. -- Attack from two sides.

Mate, IN owns the entire IOR apart from USN. Get that through first. PN cannot even think of challenging the IN as of now. Maybe that changes in the future, but from the way it is looking right now, its not going to change.

You are stuck in Bharat Karnad mentality or is it everyone in India? "AS OF RIGHT NOW"

The idea of assured credible deterrence is the Pakistani strategy not the war. The idea of Gwadar is deterrence not the conflict. Even in future when full capability is operational Pakistan would not be seeking war. After all we are not warmongers.

AC are meant for Fleet Air Defence in the IN context. Even taking out the AC would not undermine the CBG, it would become a normal SAG but a very potent one. Just without aircover. ANd to take out the AC you have to take out the escorts.

Once your aircover is lost what do you think it would only be the enemy navy, especially when you are in its waters? Its going to be its air force as well.

Puh-Lease! U-214 deal is not even signed, neither are there indications it will be signed soon. Neither is Babur sub launched. Right now, Pakistan would be working on making Babur just an AshM, let alone sub launched. Next, to launch it from A-90B's youd have to consider their cannisters width among other things. As i said last time, stop putting across your wishes and views as facts.

Ok lets leave the U-214 out. Babur doesn't need to need to be sub launched to play its role in the Arabian sea, the sea's costs are well into its reach so it can launched from ground. Plus the Ballistic Missiles cover the entire sea, so even if not the SLCMs than SRBMs & MRBMs are enough to do the job.

Ofcourse India would think 10 times, heck 20 times if need be. But if there is a conflict, there wont be any cold feets.

The basic concept I was trying to put is "DETERRENCE" meaning Pakistani is not looking for conflict. If there is any conflict (in terms of Pakistan's deterrence based strategy) it means that has took the initiative of war - meaning India has made the 1st move. Otherwise not even in war states carryout such operations. In 1965 neither side carried out counter value targets, at least Pakistan did not.

What the hell is Bharat Karnad?

Holly Cow ... what the hell are you doing on Defence forum than.

The way you post i'd mistake you for a 14 year old Pakistani teen high on the 'Pakistani Paindabad' slogan!

You can think of me as 1 year I would give a danm.

BD is not attacking India anytime soon, even if you want to. Neither is China in a war with Pakistan. History is a good guide. Learn from it. Its Pakistan alone with India. As always.

When did I say BD attacking? It could be India attacking the Chittagong port to neutralize the PLAAN movement.
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Me off to Turkey now. Hope I can access net from there.

 

[roadrunner]

The US support for the Northern Alliance will hardy dry up since of the two, that is, Taliban and NA, the NA is preferable to the US, as also to Russia. It is also preferable to Iran.

It depends on the cost. If TAP is a success they may just need a compliant government that allows the pipelines. If the costs get too high, there wouldn't be much point in the US staying there. Also, you didn't really answer why the US would support a road route for Iran's benefit?

 

[KENT]

As I said it doesn't matter what technology you have, its always the strategy. Wrong strategy means waste of technology.

If the similar strategy seem to threat the one's interest, then technology is there to futile the parameters of that strategy.

The Gwadar maritime strategy I just laid out is strategic option, there are operational & tactile options.

To counter the same strategy, India has played the card of Chabbar port.

Surely you do not believe PN is sailing in wooden ships with long heavy canons & the ships would be decimated in moments.

Offcourse, so far considering at the state of PN other then sub, it would not be unwise to think so

Well thats not stupid ... you denying the realities of economic disadvantages is rather more stupid. These things happen. More you have more you loose. You are larger economy in the region are you not?

Based on premise that in the event of hostlities, American and Europen would be begining to move from india and it will indirectly effect Indian Economy.

Nah! pls bring some other reasoning

Thats rather a stupid thing to say. It may not have anything to do with these states but mere tension near their seas is enough to impact their economy. Right at the mouth of Hormoz is a naval conflict going on, which ship in the hell would sail through it to reach these countries?

Conflict would not be prolonged enough to impact the economics of these countries, since in the modern world Internatial powers will intervane it immediatley

What did I mean by "DETERRENT VALUE" or you do not know the meaning of the term "DETERRENCE"? It means Pakistan just sending signal to India that naval ventures in Gwadar is not in its best interest & will have adverse impact on India.

If the same Deterrent tried to create trouble for Indian interest in the region in terms of blocklade of trade, then India will send the signals of adverse impact on Gwadar.

Wow ... you can find Subs in moments & destroy them??? How come the party which was well equipped to search submarines missed Daphne Sub of Pakistan in 1971 which destroyed INS Kukri

How do you know the party came to search Daphne were well equipped? those were the days when IN wasn't equipped with some topnoth ASW like right now.

& how come PNS Ghazi was moving right near the Indian aircraft carrier fleet when it was laying mines in 1965 was missed by IN?

Go and read about history of Naval warfare. It was IN which entice Ghazi and invite it towards Vizag on the pretext that Vikrant was sailed there,but in a reality it was prowling in Andaman.

But really IN miss the Ghazi, but I think you forget to admit about subsequent incident, while lying the mine, its own mine became the reason of sinking Ghazi.

Its no easy task to search them.

It is not 1971.

& Surely if you are coming into Pakistani waters PN would be attacking you haven't you thought of that?

there is no need to come inside the pakistani waters, once we impose blocklade then it is the PN which will have to visit open ocean to challenge IN.

You seem to think that gods are employed in IN & fools in PN.

As far as state of IN and PN is concerned, it is not foolish to think like that.

Just there mere fact that subs capable of launching cruise missiles with nuclear warheads is enough for any nation not to venture in Pakistani waters with bad intentions.

Once again I repeat just impose blockloade on Pakistan, it would be PN to come in open sea and challege.

Man first go and research about status of cruise missile in the Pakistan areseanl.

Its not mysterious. You do know that Pakistan is suppose to have 9+ Subs by 2015.

It's also not mysterious for you to know about Scorpean are also on their way in addition to Intensive upgraded existing submarine fleet of IN.

I don't want to talk about Akula's and ATV, since PN is not privliged enough to face them.

The naval power is not the only thing Pakistan has advantage of in the Arabian sea.

Are you sure by considering the state of PN.

If you missed out the UAE Navy & Air force are operated by Pakistani.

Definetly it is a biggest mystrey.

The Mirage2000-9 & F-16E/F are flown by Pakistani pilots along with Egyptians & not to forget Pakistani air force it self.

In addition to Su-30MKI, Jaguar and Harriers, Let the MIG-29K to come, it will make sure those mirage and F-16 won't return in single pieaces.

India will have disadvantage of distance while these forces would be in reach in no time.

Have you heard of radar which track flying objects? and this radar are installed on Indian Aircraft Carriers and accompnied Fighter Planes and destroyers and frigrates.

Just to tell you the other day 2 UAE F-16E/F & 1 Mirage2000-9 arrived in Pakistan flown by Pakistani pilots, refueled & flew back.

Pls also reveal What kind of mission were they are? Are they engage in simulation of Indian Carrier force in the strait of Homruz

This is their routine flight. In combat these soldiers will not hesitate to take advantage of UAE equipment. -- Attack from two sides.

Why didn't you add Saudi Arabia as well alongwith their Typhoons and F-15?

You are stuck in Bharat Karnad mentality or is it everyone in India? "AS OF RIGHT NOW"

Might be one of the character which you have haunted by!

The idea of assured credible deterrence is the Pakistani strategy not the war. The idea of Gwadar is deterrence not the conflict. Even in future when full capability is operational Pakistan would not be seeking war. After all we are not warmongers.

Even we are mature enough to understand it. But the point is if Indian interest appears to get threaten in these particuler region, then who knows...........

Once your aircover is lost what do you think it would only be the enemy navy, especially when you are in its waters? Its going to be its air force as well.

Pls elaborate, to whom we will going to lose our aircover?

Ok lets leave the U-214 out. Babur doesn't need to need to be sub launched to play its role in the Arabian sea,

Hey man, Is Anti-ship version of Babur is tested? pls post any news about it as I am very eager to know about it.

the sea's costs are well into its reach so it can launched from ground.

Oh then who is going to frighten with Babur? BarakNG,Akash, Anti-aircraft guns are waiting for its hot reception.

Plus the Ballistic Missiles cover the entire sea, so even if not the SLCMs than SRBMs & MRBMs are enough to do the job.

But how do you gona know about the exact location of Indian Carrier group?

Have you developed the this technique of striking the Carrier group by striking it with Ballastic Missiles? Since same technique is being tested by Chinese.

The basic concept I was trying to put is "DETERRENCE" meaning Pakistani is not looking for conflict. If there is any conflict (in terms of Pakistan's deterrence based strategy) it means that has took the initiative of war - meaning India has made the 1st move.

Don't worry, since our history speaks for itself India never made the 1st move.

Otherwise not even in war states carryout such operations. In 1965 neither side carried out counter value targets, at least Pakistan did not.

How can you says that with so much surity?

Holly Cow ... what the hell are you doing on Defence forum than.

Even I don't heard about it, since it is you who is the one introduce it.

When did I say BD attacking? It could be India attacking the Chittagong port to neutralize the PLAAN movement.

Chittagong itself situated in Bagladesh.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

As I said it doesn't matter what technology you have, its always the strategy. Wrong strategy means waste of technology. The Gwadar maritime strategy I just laid out is strategic option, there are operational & tactile options. Surely you do not believe PN is sailing in wooden ships with long heavy canons & the ships would be decimated in moments.

It is obvious that the PN is not using equipment from Drake's Armada.

What is worth note the most expensive of the armed forces is the Navy and it takes years and a very vibrant economy to build it to respond to the strategic need.

Doesn't matter who wrote them. The credibility of the articles would either one phone call or email away for me.

Indeed, it will be worthwhile for all to know the exact situation rather than banking on published material. Do exercise the option of a phone call or the email and let us know. Of course, we would like to be informed of the source and hopefully the source allows us to also discuss with him regarding the issues involved and as to how he is the expert to have a different opinion than the published material from otherwise reliable sources for what it is worth!

Well Duh ... Oil is what is required but its never too bad to have gas for industrial purpose.

LPG and CNG is the need of the hour.

The emphasis has shifted. Google and select the source you feel is authoritative and does not require a phone call or an e mail!

Well thats not stupid ... you denying the realities of economic disadvantages is rather more stupid. These things happen. More you have more you loose. You are larger economy in the region are you not?

The relations with ME countries with India are rather good. Therefore, to involve them in into a conflict would not make sense.

India has many areas to trade with and a vast coast line. Hence, India will not really be disadvantaged.

Thats rather a stupid thing to say. It may not have anything to do with these states but mere tension near their seas is enough to impact their economy. Right at the mouth of Hormoz is a naval conflict going on, which ship in the hell would sail through it to reach these countries?

At the mouth of the Hormuz there will be no conflict that the US Navy will not be able to contain. Right now, they are doing so and there is no slippages in the flow of trade. The US interest they shall protect and there is no Navy that can challenge her might!

Err. Again with the stupid denials & lack of understanding of what I am saying. By this time my 14 year old brother would have become a wise old man if I had been explaining him all this.

You mean that you don't help your 14 year old brother to be wiser? Rather callous of you actually.

What did I mean by "DETERRENT VALUE" or you do not know the meaning of the term "DETERRENCE"? It means Pakistan just sending signal to India that naval ventures in Gwadar is not in its best interest & will have adverse impact on India.

Deterrences have to be effective.

One has to see it in an overall strategic perspective and the naval strength of the adversaries and the "allies", more so if the latter's interest is equally jeopardised.

Wow ... you can find Subs in moments & destroy them??? How come the party which was well equipped to search submarines missed Daphne Sub of Pakistan in 1971 which destroyed INS Kukri & how come PNS Ghazi was moving right near the Indian aircraft carrier fleet when it was laying mines in 1965 was missed by IN? Its no easy task to search them. & Surely if you are coming into Pakistani waters PN would be attacking you haven't you thought of that?

One should remember the Karachi blockade of 1971.

PNS Ghazi was sunk and could not execute it mission. One can move in, but then many things can happen!

You seem to think that gods are employed in IN & fools in PN.

Those who depend on God alone are usually fooled and those who are fools are always fooled. Even God can't help them! A ridiculous statement.

Just there mere fact that subs capable of launching cruise missiles with nuclear warheads is enough for any nation not to venture in Pakistani waters with bad intentions.

Not quite.

The military of any nation worth its salt does not shy away from the Oath of allegiance they have taken.

Its not mysterious. You do know that Pakistan is suppose to have 9+ Subs by 2015. The naval power is not the only thing Pakistan has advantage of in the Arabian sea. If you missed out the UAE Navy & Air force are operated by Pakistani. The Mirage2000-9 & F-16E/F are flown by Pakistani pilots along with Egyptians & not to forget Pakistani air force it self.

And what do you think will be the India military might in 2015?

I am sure they will not be poodle faking!

India will have disadvantage of distance while these forces would be in reach in no time. Just to tell you the other day 2 UAE F-16E/F & 1 Mirage2000-9 arrived in Pakistan flown by Pakistani pilots, refueled & flew back. This is their routine flight. In combat these soldiers will not hesitate to take advantage of UAE equipment. -- Attack from two sides.

Again you make a mistake.

India is not playing the US card for heck's sake!

Though low keyed, the things are not that simple as it appears.

You are stuck in Bharat Karnad mentality or is it everyone in India? "AS OF RIGHT NOW"

Who is he?

I know of Girish Karnad. He is with the film industry!

The idea of assured credible deterrence is the Pakistani strategy not the war. The idea of Gwadar is deterrence not the conflict. Even in future when full capability is operational Pakistan would not be seeking war. After all we are not warmongers.

Gwadar is no deterrence per se. It is China's string of pearls that is what interest India.

Once your aircover is lost what do you think it would only be the enemy navy, especially when you are in its waters? Its going to be its air force as well.

It has to be lost first. Conjectures are not adequate.

Ok lets leave the U-214 out. Babur doesn't need to need to be sub launched to play its role in the Arabian sea, the sea's costs are well into its reach so it can launched from ground. Plus the Ballistic Missiles cover the entire sea, so even if not the SLCMs than SRBMs & MRBMs are enough to do the job.

Still is of no concern.

The basic concept I was trying to put is "DETERRENCE" meaning Pakistani is not looking for conflict. If there is any conflict (in terms of Pakistan's deterrence based strategy) it means that has took the initiative of war - meaning India has made the 1st move. Otherwise not even in war states carryout such operations. In 1965 neither side carried out counter value targets, at least Pakistan did not.

India has not made the first move in any wars except 1971, if indeed she has!

Holly Cow ... what the hell are you doing on Defence forum than.

Must be to learn from those who know.

When did I say BD attacking? It could be India attacking the Chittagong port to neutralize the PLAAN movement.

Whatever for?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Me off to Turkey now. Hope I can access net from there.

I am sure Turkey is not the back of nowhere.

It is supposed to be the most modern Islamic state and a part of NATO!

I am off to Singapore.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

It depends on the cost. If TAP is a success they may just need a compliant government that allows the pipelines. If the costs get too high, there wouldn't be much point in the US staying there. Also, you didn't really answer why the US would support a road route for Iran's benefit?

It appears that you don't read my posts and take off into the blue.

I have explained and in quite in detail as to why the US would not bother if India trades with the CARs through Iran.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

To counter the same strategy, India has played the card of Chabbar port.

Sorry to say but as per the analysis of the geopolitical issues experts that card is not going to work since US is totally against IRAN. Furthermore, Northern Alliance backed up by US in Afghanistan doesnot mean that US is going to allow free access to India Via Iran to CIS. The CIS donot want to trade is another issue that makes Indian Chabber port dreams shatter.

Offcourse, so far considering at the state of PN other then sub, it would not be unwise to think so

Keep in mind the IN status also in other areas of weapon systems other than subs. Donot consider IN strong enough to become Incharge of Arabian Ocean. IN wondering Around in Arabian Ocean is day dreaming considering your Strenght.

Once again I repeat just impose blockloade on Pakistan, it would be PN to come in open sea and challege.
Man first go and research about status of cruise missile in the Pakistan areseanl.

Check the facts kent before writing so abruptly. Omara is being created as a Naval Base and Both Karachi and Omara can be docking Naval Vessels of PN which means 1% chance for IN to blockade Pakistan. Right now your Navy lacks class in every aspect of Equipment. Donot ever compare Kilos with Augosta's 70 of 90B.... You have not recieved yet a single Scorpene and your

In addition to Su-30MKI, Jaguar and Harriers, Let the MIG-29K to come, it will make sure those mirage and F-16 won't return in single pieaces.

Your Harrier fleet is obsolete and PN is not worried about them. Nearly half of the harriers have crashed and only one dozen are remaining. For the MIG 29, i will only say ... Bring them on and we will see what happens! I hope India has enough Su-30s to use in all types of conflicts as you people tend to use Su-30 of yours in every fight.... Against striking, Interception and Maritime roles. Get all the other planes retired since SU-30 are sufficiant for all fights.

Come up with facts ...

 

[roadrunner]

It appears that you don't read my posts and take off into the blue.

I have explained and in quite in detail as to why the US would not bother if India trades with the CARs through Iran.

The US does not mind India trading with Central Asia, I don't think it cares. But judging by the rhetoric, it seems it would mind Iran getting any benefit.

By the same token, by suggesting that Iran needs US in the region backing the fledgling Afghani government to keep the Taliban at bay (which it does since I don't think Karzai would last two minutes with his NA soldiers), the implication is that Iran would be supporting the Taliban in order to keep the US support for the Northern Alliance, as would India be supporting the Taliban.

 

[Contrarian]

As I said it doesn't matter what technology you have, its always the strategy. Wrong strategy means waste of technology.

Technology can complement a strategy or undo it. It depends on how it is used. Technology at times proves to be far more important than strategy as the strategy is made/designed keeping the possesed technology at its centre.

The Gwadar maritime strategy I just laid out is strategic option, there are operational & tactile options. Surely you do not believe PN is sailing in wooden ships with long heavy canons & the ships would be decimated in moments.

Nope, but compared to Indian Navy, the Pakistani Naval ships are not something you'd like to mention. The technology gap shows quite blantantly.

Doesn't matter who wrote them. The credibility of the articles would either one phone call or email away for me.

Do that then.

Well Duh ... Oil is what is required but its never too bad to have gas for industrial purpose.

What is the point of this line? I said the gas line is passing through Pakistan as Pakistan is also a major importer, and not through Iran as Iran is an exporter of the same. Basic economic sense, but you OTOH bring strategy and whatnot into it.

Well thats not stupid ... you denying the realities of economic disadvantages is rather more stupid. These things happen. More you have more you loose. You are larger economy in the region are you not?

Obviously India is. And companies will not start running off at the mere mention of war.

They would also happily come back at the end of the war for those that do go.

Thats rather a stupid thing to say. It may not have anything to do with these states but mere tension near their seas is enough to impact their economy. Right at the mouth of Hormoz is a naval conflict going on, which ship in the hell would sail through it to reach these countries?

Im sorry, you might have missed some news while hobnobbing with the most prominent strategists of Pakistan, that India is VERY friendly with ALL gulf countries, including ones from East Africa.

Indian Navy is at the front of these ties, with REGULAR port calls, personnel exchanges, naval exercises among other things. Indian Navy is very very well received in that area especially with Oman, UAE, etc,to the extent of joint patrolling of their waters. So please dont worry on the tension that these states might feel. They would well be reassured by India that their trade is in no danger.

This is not to forget that the conflict would not be right at the mouth of Hormuz but mainly at Karachi and then at Gwadar.
Dont base your thesis on conjectures.

Err. Again with the stupid denials & lack of understanding of what I am saying. By this time my 14 year old brother would have become a wise old man if I had been explaining him all this.

What did I mean by "DETERRENT VALUE" or you do not know the meaning of the term "DETERRENCE"? It means Pakistan just sending signal to India that naval ventures in Gwadar is not in its best interest & will have adverse impact on India.

As Salim Sir mentioned, the detterent has to be effective. While it does help in some measure, it is by no means half as good as it is proclaimed to be.

Wow ... you can find Subs in moments & destroy them??? How come the party which was well equipped to search submarines missed Daphne Sub of Pakistan in 1971 which destroyed INS Kukri & how come PNS Ghazi was moving right near the Indian aircraft carrier fleet when it was laying mines in 1965 was missed by IN? Its no easy task to search them.

Has been covered by Kent. India has focussed heck of a lot on ASW in case you missed this as well.

& Surely if you are coming into Pakistani waters PN would be attacking you haven't you thought of that?

Obviously, but their surface ships simply arent capable enough to attack. One or two independent surface ships dont make the slightest difference. By PN, i hope you are only implying the submarine fleet of PN.
3 subs as of now, and 3 in the future(im discounting the Agosta 90's, as they are old and not suited for the hunter role). THis hardly qualifies as a force capable enough to stop IN fleet specialising in ASW.

And to remind you, submarine fleet alone is not half as effective as it would be with a capable surface fleet. They are meant to complement each other. Submarines alone cannot be effective.

You seem to think that gods are employed in IN & fools in PN.

Nope, just that fools set too much store by strategy while ignoring technology. PN maybe good, but it needs a lot more technology and money and then training with those respective new technologies to be effective.

Just there mere fact that subs capable of launching cruise missiles with nuclear warheads is enough for any nation not to venture in Pakistani waters with bad intentions.

And here i foolishly thought that since you are saying you study under the most prominent strategists of Pakistan you would know more than saying idiotic statements like 'cruise missiles with nuclear warheads would be enough'!

Do you understand the consequences of using nuclear warheads? Being the..ahem...strategist...that you are, you would ovbiously realise that using nukes would mean the last final straw end of Pakistan. It is not a victory option for Pakistan, but a suicidal option. It has to be used only when the existance of Pakistan is DIRECTLY threatened, using it before that would mean ensuring the same.

Its not mysterious. You do know that Pakistan is suppose to have 9+ Subs by 2015. The naval power is not the only thing Pakistan has advantage of in the Arabian sea.

Really..!

You mean
3 Agosta 90's
3 Agosta 90B's
and 3(U-214's)- PROJECTED!

Then the 16 subs currently in the IN must be abandoned...!

Please allow me to tell you that there are 6 Scorpene subs already on order and being built by the MDL.

And this is the first line of submarines, the Navy's Submarine requirement calls for a Second SSK line for which the RFP's would be released soon.(PROJECTED, just like the U-214's)

Not to mention all the existing subs in the IN inventory are being rehauled and given a mid life upgrade. With the Kilo class subs being given Land attack capability.

You might also have forgotten about the ATV that is being built.
And the new MPA for which the RFP's have already been issued and the trials are commencing.

If you missed out the UAE Navy & Air force are operated by Pakistani. The Mirage2000-9 & F-16E/F are flown by Pakistani pilots along with Egyptians & not to forget Pakistani air force it self.

India will have disadvantage of distance while these forces would be in reach in no time. Just to tell you the other day 2 UAE F-16E/F & 1 Mirage2000-9 arrived in Pakistan flown by Pakistani pilots, refueled & flew back. This is their routine flight. In combat these soldiers will not hesitate to take advantage of UAE equipment. -- Attack from two sides.

Oh right!
If this is what you are learning from your esteemed and prominent strategists and please count the rest of us out. This point does not even deserve a reply.

You are stuck in Bharat Karnad mentality or is it everyone in India? "AS OF RIGHT NOW"

The idea of assured credible deterrence is the Pakistani strategy not the war. The idea of Gwadar is deterrence not the conflict. Even in future when full capability is operational Pakistan would not be seeking war. After all we are not warmongers.

The detterence is flawed and you are putting too much by its store.

Once your aircover is lost what do you think it would only be the enemy navy, especially when you are in its waters? Its going to be its air force as well.

Again, in the Indo-Pak context, do tell me, how the heck will you take out the AC? You cannot take out the AC first and then make the rest of the CBG without aircover, you have to take out the CBG and then take out the Carrier.
You really do have no idea of ANY kind of Naval operations! And here i thought you were someone who knew his stuff.

Tell me, how will you take out the AC without taking out the CBG? And how the hell will you take out the CBG as well if you dont know where it is. The hardest thing is to detect the CBG first. And secondly, an AC is NEVER at the forefront of the battle. It will be safely hundreds of miles off the coast, being protected by the CBG among other assets and sending its planes from there to attack PN and its coastline. Even if you do manage to get past the aircover of planes, and say PN manages to launch a few AshM's at the CBG, there are AAW ships in the fleet.

Forget AAW, Barak is present on almost all the new ships. That provides excellent defence for AshM's, if the Barak misses, there is Kashtan-M. And now soon there will be the Barak-8 or Long Range Area Defence missile system. This will constitute the AAW. MiG 29K's and N-LCA's are just one part of the fleet's air cover.

We are talking about the Indo Pak context right? Its not as if the AC had to go to the Straits of Malacca!

All the land based planes of IN have more than enough cover to reach all parts of the Pakistani coastline to bombard them and/or provide fleet cover. This is in addition to all the things mentioned above.

Now do tell me, what is the corresponding method with which the PN will defend its ships?

Ok lets leave the U-214 out. Babur doesn't need to need to be sub launched to play its role in the Arabian sea, the sea's costs are well into its reach so it can launched from ground. Plus the Ballistic Missiles cover the entire sea, so even if not the SLCMs than SRBMs & MRBMs are enough to do the job.

Sure they are, thus you see, the ADS being built in India. Im talking about the new SAM system being built as well for the IAF/IA as well as Navy.This is in addition to the BMD system being developed which is also able to intercept CM's and planes. And this is from a direct source.

The basic concept I was trying to put is "DETERRENCE" meaning Pakistani is not looking for conflict. If there is any conflict (in terms of Pakistan's deterrence based strategy) it means that has took the initiative of war - meaning India has made the 1st move. Otherwise not even in war states carryout such operations. In 1965 neither side carried out counter value targets, at least Pakistan did not.

1965 was a comedy of errors.

Holly Cow ... what the hell are you doing on Defence forum than.

As Salim Sir said-To learn what is correct. It seems you are here not for that.

You can think of me as 1 year I would give a danm.

The way you are talking, i wouldnt be surprised.

When did I say BD attacking? It could be India attacking the Chittagong port to neutralize the PLAAN movement.

Your joking right? Is this for real?

I am convinced now, that you know absolutely nothing, either about strategy or about the current technology or the finer points of their use.

Me off to Turkey now. Hope I can access net from there.

Do enjoy your trip...I hear Turkey is quite wonderful.