How should Pakistan tackle S400 acquisition by India? The Drone Swarm Technology....

[randomradio]

Saturation doctrine weapon can only be killed by saturation and asymmetric attack. The precision doctrine fails here as the SAM system is designed to tackle all likely scenarios used by the west and its Proxy states like Pakistan.

S400 has a solution: A networked Mesh with Drones that are able to DRFM the SR signal in real time and create targets like the MALD. S400 operator, if engages, loses important weapons. If does not engage, then has to deal with immense traffic on screen of actual flying aircraft and false targets that can allow a package to get through. However, i don't see S400 as the real threat to PAF aircraft but Spyder SAM system, which will have to force Pakistan to fly low and do pop up attacks with SOWs and REKs.
Coming back to S400, a set of 10-20 MALD type high speed drones with smart EW packages should do the job, create a lot of nice traffic and incoming ABMs rendering a S400 incapable to do anything else, or "engage" all the targets or the decoys (which would be flying like fighters or cruise missiles), letting go of precious rounds. As it engages, it is bright and loud and can be seen by a dead ESM receiver on any remote aircraft. If the battery chooses not to engage, it loses. If it choses to engage, it loses. As the battery re-loads, it is taken out. End of S400 chronicles.

I wouldn't be so sure about using the MALD.

The S-400 has 4 types of missiles. 40Km, 120Km, 250Km and 400Km.

The 250 and 400Km missiles are primarily meant to be used against high value assets. These missiles are few in number and are necessary for BMD as well. Which means, MALD will not be one of its targets. So, when it comes to air defence, the S-400 at those ranges is on the look out for larger aircraft instead. And the S-400 will also be supported by many other long range radars, namely the Swordfish, IAF-Arudhra, DRDO-Arudhra, HPR etc, even radar satellites.

MALD is more likely to be the target of the 120Km missiles. Let's not forget that the S-400 is also supported by capable EO sensors, which can easily distinguish between fighter jets and the MALD. Also, each launcher can carry 16 such medium range missiles, rather than just 4 long range missiles, so there's plenty of firepower available. A single S-400 radar site can have as many as 32-64 medium range missiles alongside 32-64 short range 40Km missiles. And also 2 batteries of the SPYDER. Those S-400 sites will be extremely well defended.

And this is just the IAF. People always forget that the IA will also have a large network of SAMs, MRSAM, Akash and QRSAM in particular, already in Pak territory after hostilities begin. So PAF jets will have to defeat the IA's SAMs first before coming anywhere close to the S-400 and IAF SPYDERs.

To put things in perspective, if we speak of just 1 regiment of MRSAM and QRSAM each in a sector, we are talking about more than 500 active missiles in play. Those 20 MALDs aiming for the S-400 are not going to have a good day.

Btw, at low altitude SOWs are not exactly SOWs. The powered AASM from France which claims a range of 60Km has only a 15Km range at low altitude. Even the 120+Km range AGM-154 manages only 22Km at low altitude. So if an S-400 site is located in Adampur, then the PAF will have operate extremely deep inside India if it has to fly all the way over to within a 20Km range of Adampur. Even if PAF jets pop up and double the low altitude standoff range, you will still have to fly in deep. Adampur to the border is 100-120Km. Which means the S-400 is most likely only to see friendly units in the air and just a few enemy units within a 100Km radius. So this problem of dealing with immense enemy traffic does not arise.

MKI and Mig-29.

 

[Falcon26]

MIRV and hypersonic missiles. Pakistan has the former and will need to develop the later. Each of these will decapitate the S-400

 

[The Deterrent]

what about non-kinetic solutions ...???

Very limited technical base for developing something like that, which actually works.

 

[Quwa]

MIRV and hypersonic missiles. Pakistan has the former and will need to develop the later. Each of these will decapitate the S-400

I'd look at GLCMs, guided MLRS and Iskander-like SRBMs too. These can be deployed across many. many more attack vectors than air-launched munitions (which depend on the JF-17, which itself depends on a finite number of air fields to launch from...). Granted, the range of the MLRS and SRBMs will generally be limited to 300 km, but one can procure them cheaply and deploy them widely. Combined with ELINT assets (ground-based and air), these arty units could be a threat to nearby SAM elements (e.g. those of the IA) while also nearby attack assets.

But the challenge with the S-400 is the fact that it's both multi-range (i.e. capable of defending itself if need be from low level attacks) and will work with India's wider air defence network (MR-SAM, SPYDER, etc, etc). So low level flights will generally be very difficult to pull-off. If not deprecation, then we might as well look at emulation -- i.e. build-out our own dense air defence network via LR-SAM, MR-SAM, SR-SAM (incl. mobile MR/SR-SAM); increase number of JF-17 Block-III (and beyond) for AESA-equipped air defence fighters, etc.

If not S-400, then might as well save those pennies for the Turkish-Eurosam LR-SAM and/or the Chinese FD-2000. But I'd also look into the Denel Marlin and Umkhonto to build mobile, SPYDER-like SR/MR-SAM units too.

 

[The Deterrent]

In my opinion, some of the counter-measures could be to:
1. Accelerate development of MIRVed ballistic missile system with at least 3 RVs.
2. Develop decoys & counter measures for RVs for missiles in development (Shaheen-IA, Shaheen-III).
3. Develop MaRVs for existing systems (Shaheen-IA, Shaheen-II, Shaheen-III).
4. Develop very low-observable (stealthier) versions of existing Babur & Ra'ad cruise missiles.
5. Produce more conventional ballistic & cruise missiles.
6. Buy J-31 for PAF to deploy in SEAD ops against S-400 batteries.
7. Acquire AEW&C based potent jamming capability.
8. Buy land-based CX-1 cruise missile for supersonic capability.
9. Research & develop ADM-160 MALD -like decoy missiles.

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/poss...pakistans-response.406762/page-4#post-7840817

 

[Bilal.]

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/poss...pakistans-response.406762/page-4#post-7840817

What about option 10, drone swarm of rough equivalent of harpy/harop with coordinated attack capability?

 

[The Deterrent]

What about option 10, drone swarm of rough equivalent of harpy/harop with coordinated attack capability?

You have to consider that any drone is easy to differentiate from aircrafts and missiles these days. So all these ideas about drones are useless IMO, since an integrated air-defence system will classify them as low-cost targets and direct corresponding low-cost SAMs/aircrafts to intercept them. UCAVs can be taken down much earlier by the likes of Akash, Spyder, QR/SRSAMs etc, which India would acquire in huge numbers.

S-400 is a strategic system, and will probably only engage high-value targets like fighter aircrafts, AEW&Cs, tactical ballistic missiles etc.

 

[Bilal.]

You have to consider that any drone is easy to differentiate from aircrafts and missiles these days. So all these ideas about drones are useless IMO, since an integrated air-defence system will classify them as low-cost targets and direct corresponding low-cost SAMs/aircrafts to intercept them. UCAVs can be taken down much earlier by the likes of Akash, Spyder, QR/SRSAMs etc, which India would acquire in huge numbers.

S-400 is a strategic system, and will probably only engage high-value targets like fighter aircrafts, AEW&Cs, tactical ballistic missiles etc.

True, but each drone can be made at a fraction of cost of even lomad and shorads mentioned above. So if large enough numbers are made an lunched, it will overwhelm the IAD.... and eventually reach the intended strategic SAM.

 

[randomradio]

I'd look at GLCMs, guided MLRS and Iskander-like SRBMs too.

These would require some very, very good real time recce capabilities.

But the challenge with the S-400 is the fact that it's both multi-range (i.e. capable of defending itself if need be from low level attacks) and will work with India's wider air defence network (MR-SAM, SPYDER, etc, etc). So low level flights will generally be very difficult to pull-off. If not deprecation, then we might as well look at emulation -- i.e. build-out our own dense air defence network via LR-SAM, MR-SAM, SR-SAM (incl. mobile MR/SR-SAM); increase number of JF-17 Block-III (and beyond) for AESA-equipped air defence fighters, etc.

If not S-400, then might as well save those pennies for the Turkish-Eurosam LR-SAM and/or the Chinese FD-2000. But I'd also look into the Denel Marlin and Umkhonto to build mobile, SPYDER-like SR/MR-SAM units too.

An arms race is welcome from the Indian PoV.

 

[Falcon26]

I'd look at GLCMs, guided MLRS and Iskander-like SRBMs too. These can be deployed across many. many more attack vectors than air-launched munitions (which depend on the JF-17, which itself depends on a finite number of air fields to launch from...). Granted, the range of the MLRS and SRBMs will generally be limited to 300 km, but one can procure them cheaply and deploy them widely. Combined with ELINT assets (ground-based and air), these arty units could be a threat to nearby SAM elements (e.g. those of the IA) while also nearby attack assets.

But the challenge with the S-400 is the fact that it's both multi-range (i.e. capable of defending itself if need be from low level attacks) and will work with India's wider air defence network (MR-SAM, SPYDER, etc, etc). So low level flights will generally be very difficult to pull-off. If not deprecation, then we might as well look at emulation -- i.e. build-out our own dense air defence network via LR-SAM, MR-SAM, SR-SAM (incl. mobile MR/SR-SAM); increase number of JF-17 Block-III (and beyond) for AESA-equipped air defence fighters, etc.

If not S-400, then might as well save those pennies for the Turkish-Eurosam LR-SAM and/or the Chinese FD-2000. But I'd also look into the Denel Marlin and Umkhonto to build mobile, SPYDER-like SR/MR-SAM units too.

You don’t think hypersonic missiles are as of now the surest way of defeating S-400 type air defense systems?

 

[CriticalThought]

You don’t think hypersonic missiles are as of now the surest way of defeating S-400 type air defense systems?

You are right. Hypersonic is the future, especially since that is also the next step for Brahmos.

@The Deterrent @Quwa @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Thorough Pro

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

True, but each drone can be made at a fraction of cost of even lomad and shorads mentioned above. So if large enough numbers are made an lunched, it will overwhelm the IAD.... and eventually reach the intended strategic SAM.

And the cost for Pakistan to produce, maintain, store, train(personnels) such large number of drones in anticipation for a war which might never come? In that case that money can be used for better counter defence purposes.

These swarm drones idea is stale. Even attack choppers can take them out.

You are right. Hypersonic is the future, especially since that is also the next step for Brahmos.

@The Deterrent @Quwa @Bilal Khan (Quwa) @Thorough Pro

When a system can take out Ballistic missiles whose terminal velocity is simply more than hypersonic, it still can take down those aircrafts. Remember Russia is the Manufacturer and (co)developer of (one)both systems. Two ways. Counter electronic warfare. Or Peace, which is a much better option.

 

[CriticalThought]

And the cost for Pakistan to produce, maintain, store, train(personnels) such large number of drones in anticipation for a war which might never come? In that case that money can be used for better counter defence purposes.

These swarm drones idea is stale. Even attack choppers can take them out.



When a system can take out Ballistic missiles whose terminal velocity is simply more than hypersonic, it still can take down those aircrafts. Remember Russia is the Manufacturer and (co)developer of (one)both systems. Two ways. Counter electronic warfare. Or Peace, which is a much better option.

A saturation attack with hypersonic missiles in the Mach 5+ range will circumvent most Indian air defences, and increase the cost of wielding the S-400. Note that we still need an air defence system to safeguard our own infrastructure, but this ensures that our response times are competitive.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

A saturation attack with hypersonic missiles in the Mach 5+ range will circumvent most Indian air defences, and increase the cost of wielding the S-400. Note that we still need an air defence system to safeguard our own infrastructure, but this ensures that our response times are competitive.

For that one needs money to build such a large number of Hypersonic missile for pure saturation. Its not fun. An long ranged missile in S400 costs around 3-4m dollars at current prices. An Ballistic missile production and infra costs around 8-10m dollars. Hypersonic missiles might be used as strategic missiles, not to be used as swarms.

Second Hypersonic missiles testing is going on currently. However an refined better weapon of the missile will take around 15-20 years from now. Lots of Techs needs to be matured. By that time, the world would have moved onto something else in defensive technology. Brahmos will be there soon, but its range is low.

If yours is a solution, why US or Russia or China has ever attempted it? Cos it isnt feasible.

 

[CriticalThought]

For that one needs money to build such a large number of Hypersonic missile for pure saturation. Its not fun. An long ranged missile in S400 costs around 3-4m dollars at current prices. An Ballistic missile production and infra costs around 8-10m dollars. Hypersonic missiles might be used as strategic missiles, not to be used as swarms.

Second Hypersonic missiles testing is going on currently. However an refined better weapon of the missile will take around 15-20 years from now. Lots of Techs needs to be matured. By that time, the world would have moved onto something else in defensive technology. Brahmos will be there soon, but its range is low.

If yours is a solution, why US or Russia or China has ever attempted it? Cos it isnt feasible.

How about you take care of ponying up for your S-400 purchase. Leave the R&D and investment to Pakistan and its friends.