How difficult would it be for China to invade Taiwan?

[FuturePAF]

The biggest unknown would be if US will militarily intervene.

If Taiwan was by itself, then it would probably go down in 3 weeks. It will take China about 72 hours to achieve air superiority and a week to fully clear the air space.

IMHO, America will intervene if Japan intervenes (because its Japanese bases from which US planes and ships will launch out of). China has to diplomatically neutralize/placate Japan to keep them and by extension the US from intervening.

 

[nang2]

IMHO, America will intervene if Japan intervenes (because its Japanese bases from which US planes and ships will launch out of). China has to diplomatically neutralize/placate Japan to keep them and by extension the US from intervening.

You got the relationship wrong. Militarily speaking, Japan is only a puppet state of America. Japan won't intervene unless America wants to intervene.

 

[Rafi]

You got the relationship wrong. Militarily speaking, Japan is only a puppet state of America. Japan won't intervene unless America wants to intervene.

The Japs are massively anti war, if Japan is not directly attacked, then the Japanese people will protest, and the govt will collapse. We are talking about decades of pacifist ideology.

 

[nang2]

The Japs are massively anti war, if Japan is not directly attacked, then the Japanese people will protest, and the govt will collapse. We are talking about decades of pacifist ideology.

Maybe but politics takes time and it is not like Japan has a way to say no. Japanese government can simply claim that they are following the obligation with US based on the signed treaty. Japanese may be pacifists but they don't want to be irresponsible. And if the current propaganda war should tell us anything, their mind can be manipulated, too.

 

[Rafi]

Maybe but politics takes time and it is not like Japan has a way to say no. Japanese government can simply claim that they are following the obligation with US based on the signed treaty. Japanese may be pacifists but they don't want to be irresponsible. And if the current propaganda war should tell us anything, their mind can be manipulated, too.

True, but I am in the Hugh White camp (defence and security expert from Australia) who says that the US has no stomach for a war with a peer competitor, and especially not China.

If the US refuses to fight a declining great power such as Russia, who is attacking white Europeans, they are hardly going to fight and die for us Asians on the other side of the planet.

The most they will do is sanctions, and considering China is the biggest trading country on the planet, that will cause a global depression and will also destroy the US economy.

Plus China is happy with the status quo currently, time is on its side, by the end of the 20's China will be a global superpower both militarily, economically, technologically, politically, GAME OVER for Taiwan at that stage.

 

[S10]

IMHO, America will intervene if Japan intervenes (because its Japanese bases from which US planes and ships will launch out of). China has to diplomatically neutralize/placate Japan to keep them and by extension the US from intervening.

Either way, China needs to plan its reunification campaign with Japan and US going to militarily intervene in mind.

The scale of it will be massive.

 

[nang2]

True, but I am in the Hugh White camp (defence and security expert from Australia) who says that the US has no stomach for a war with a peer competitor, and especially not China.

If the US refuses to fight a declining great power such as Russia, who is attacking white Europeans, they are hardly going to fight and die for us Asians on the other side of the planet.

The most they will do is sanctions, and considering China is the biggest trading country on the planet, that will cause a global depression and will also destroy the US economy.

Plus China is happy with the status quo currently, time is on its side, by the end of the 20's China will be a global superpower both militarily, economically, technologically, politically, GAME OVER for Taiwan at that stage.

That may be true but as some previous posts in this thread said, China isn't taking chances. If it ever decides to take Taiwan, it will make sure it is successful. So, preparing for the worst is the safest strategy. And for a big country like China, the over-investment to prepare for the worst will pay off later on.

The biggest threat to China is still China itself, especially when its ideological fever raises its head and starts to kill its own gold-egg-laying geese.

 

[Rafi]

That may be true but as some previous posts in this thread said, China isn't taking chances. If it ever decides to take Taiwan, it will make sure it is successful. So, preparing for the worst is the safest strategy. And for a big country like China, the over-investment to prepare for the worst will pay off later on.

The biggest threat to China is still China itself, especially when its ideological fever raises its head and starts to kill its own gold-egg-laying geese.

Yes China plans to fight and win a war with the US and its allies, it needs about 10 to 12 years to get there.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

Cruise missile Taiwan's power plants. Let's see how Taiwanese like to live in the stone age.

 

[nang2]

Yes China plans to fight and win a war with the US and its allies, it needs about 10 to 12 years to get there.

China is patient. Decades of the effort to squeeze Taiwan's international space pays off. If China ever invades, few can say it is wrong because it invades a sovereign country and Taiwan's semi-alliance with US doesn't help generate much sympathy, either.

I only hope Xi doesn't lose the patience for whatever reason. He would be in serious error if he wants Taiwan for his own personal glory.

However, that being said, I actually hope China never invades and Taiwan remains neutral. A healthy competition helps prevent tyrants and promote freedom for Chinese people as a whole.

 

[Sinnerman108]

Why would china ever want to invade Taiwan ?

It's a small island, and there are much less evasive things China can do to bring them to their knees.

 

[nang2]

Why would china ever want to invade Taiwan ?

It's a small island, and there are much less evasive things China can do to bring them to their knees.

Why do people even ask that? Read the map, please.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

THAT NOT EASY AS YOU THINK, UK/USA NAVAL FORCES WILL ARRIVED IN NO TIME AND TO DESTROY YOUR NAVAL FORCES IN PACIFIC LOL

How are they going to do that? Chinese land based bombers would wreck havoc on US navy ships in Taiwan strait. US navy ships don't have the range to hit Kashgar airbase from which strategic anti ship bombers operate.

 

[MajesticPug]

if Taiwan demands a referendum for democracy vs communism covering both mainland and Taiwan.. then is it acceptable ?

The referendum will include all citizens of PRC. Yes sure.

 

[MajesticPug]

Yes China plans to fight and win a war with the US and its allies, it needs about 10 to 12 years to get there.

You're talking out of context. China needs to prepare military confrontations with Japan and US in the Tawiwan Strait, but not a war (where?) over US and its allies (which allies?). I don't think Europeans want to get involved if they're not joining the Ukraine fight now. I'm not surprised Taiwan's taken notes from the Actor Zelensky and prepared hundreds of scripts to fabricate stories, but if China do not employ the Russian strategies these scripts will have no use.

Where the war is going to happen decides if China or US wins -- regardless of Japan's joining the fight or not. Over the TW Strait? It's a no brainer my bet is on China.