nang2
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If the current conflict tells us anything, it s that US won't. If US doesn't intervene militarily for an independent country that has one leg in NATO, how would anyone expect it to intervene militarily for a "country" that it doesn't even recognize officially? China probably has to be much weaker for US to act differently. I expect China to have a nuclear build-up prior to the invasion to ensure US act consistently.The biggest unknown would be if US will militarily intervene.
If Taiwan was by itself, then it would probably go down in 3 weeks. It will take China about 72 hours to achieve air superiority and a week to fully clear the air space.