Buy F-16s to avoid sanctions post-Russia deal, US tells India

[prashantazazel]

We will likely not buy any new planes from the Americans. They are anyhow sanctioning most of the world. Who cares....

 

[maximuswarrior]

I agree in that it's time for the rest of the world to phase out 4th gen fighters and all new acquisitions should be for 5th gen...but just like how we expect technology to progress in other sectors...in this case things are different.

The biggest two reasons for that are the cost and availability of 5th gen platforms. So far there's only 3 that are operational(I'm just gonna include J20 here as well even though it doesn't have its own engines yet and is in LRIP). These 3 are F22, F35, and J20. Of these 3, 2 are off limits.

So even if a country wanted to acquire 5th gen platforms as the next step up rather than more 4th gen platforms...their only option so far that's operational is F35. For that a country needs to be in good graces of the US and have deep pockets.

So yes...technically speaking 4th gen stuff is obsolete since 5th gen tech has existed for a while now...but due to very few countries having that 5th gen tech and due to those reasons above...I think 4th gen(and 4+, 4++ gen) fighters are gonna stick around with progressive updates(to their electronics) for at least a decade more if not longer.

I don't think India will have issues getting the F-35 eventually if it pushes Uncle Sam really hard. Uncle Sam is willing to offer an arm and a leg at the moment to appease India.

Frankly, I don't think India is seeking any American aircraft at the moment. The Americans even lost out during MMRCA tender.

The Americans are desperate to sell a fighter to India after losing out in the MMRCA tender. They want to infiltrate the Indian market, but just not at the expense of offering their very best. My own analysis is that India isn't very interested in American options unless the Americans immediately offer their very best.

It also has to be said that there is some level of discomfort buying American. The Indians have a history of buying Russian. This is a quantum leap change. There is also the political dimension. The Indians still have some level of Cold War distrust with their American peers. Indian politicians and academics don't feel very comfortable putting all their eggs in the American basket. The very recent S-400 deal is a clear example. At least that is how I read the situation, but I may be wrong.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

I don't think India will have issues getting the F-35 eventually if it pushes Uncle Sam really hard. Uncle Sam is willing to offer an arm and a leg at the moment to appease India.

I don't think India is seeking any American aircraft at the moment. The Americans even lost out during MMRCA tender.

The Americans are desperate to sell a fighter to India. They want to infiltrate the Indian market, but just not at the expense of offering their very best. My own analysis is that India isn't very interested in American options unless the Americans immediately offer their best.

It all depends on if Modi comes back in 2019 or not.

If Modi is gone, India will not go for any of the US fighters but if Modi comes back, he will dump French & Russian fighters in favor of the US fighters.

 

[Indos]

@Indos
Are you seeing this? US parts n components in KFX could lead this such predicament

Yes, Indonesian government does acknowledge what will be the negative side of KFX program with US become engine and technology supplier. That is why there is some kind of thinking to abandon the program but yesterday the government said that it will not cancel the program but rather enter a renegotiation process that can take a year to complete.

KFX program itself is started by a government who is pro USA thats why we buy 24 refurbished F 16 Block 52 during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) administration. South Korea has chosen US over European to help the program, it makes the situation getting more difficult to us. If you follow KFX news you will see that there is inconvenience happening in KFX project particularly between Indonesian and American. American try to restrict some technology from Indonesia engineers.

If you notice the situation within 1998-2005 you will know that US and some European countries embargoed Indonesia from buying their defense product due to East Timor problem. USA has also warn Indonesia not to procure SU 35, it makes the transaction is still not conducted until now. We know it is not easy to have a relationship with USA.

 

[maximuswarrior]

It all depends on if Modi comes back in 2019 or not.

If Modi is gone, India will not go for any of the US fighters but if Modi comes back, he will dump French & Russian fighters in favor of the US fighters.

Modi isn't going anywhere. He is winning and everyone already knows that.

Having said that, Modi is extremely cunning. He appeases all sides to reap full benefit, but takes sides when he has to. There is absolutely no better example than the Israeli vote at the UN and the S-400 deal. Wow. Modi is forcing his way with Uncle Sam and that is not easy I have to admit.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Make that F-18SH, and India might still consider.

US should offer F18

Why settle for so less. Why not ask for F-35/F-22 hybrid.


The Only Thing That Might Kill a New F-22 Fighter for Japan

The insane cost.

by Sebastien Roblin
In August 2018, the Nikkei Asian Review detailed aspects of a proposal by Lockheed Martin to partner with Japanese companies to produce a new model of the F-22 Raptor, the world’s most capable air-superiority fighter jet. The stealth fighter would be upgraded with avionics and radar-absorbent material technologies developed for the newer, more affordable F-35 Lightning .

Japan is license-building forty-two F-35s but is not entirely satisfied with the multi-role jet, which was designed to penetrate enemy air defenses. By contrast, the Japanese Air Self Defense Force is foremost concerned with patrolling the skies around the far-flung Japanese islands against intrusion by Russian or Chinese warplanes and missiles. Though the F-35’s stealth characteristics have allowed it to heavily out-perform non-stealth jetsin mock air battles, it’s still not as optimized for air-to-air combat as the Raptor, particularly for Within-Visual Range engagements .

Tokyo sought to procure Raptors back in the 2000s but was frustrated by a quasi-ban imposed by Congress in 1997 on exporting F-22s. Worse, the Raptor production line was closed in 2011, making it impractically expensive to order more of them.

For this reason, Tokyo spent $360 million developing its own stealth fighter demonstrator, the X-2 Shinshin, detailed in this article . In theory, the X-2 was to be evolved into an even more advanced sixth-generation fighter designated the Mitsubishi F-3. However, the defense ministry had an attack of the jitters in 2017 when they saw the projected $40 billion dollars necessary to home develop a stealth fighter—and that’s not counting procurement!

This was why in early 2018 word got out that Tokyo was looking for foreign partners to help it build the F-3, rather than relying exclusively on a domestic design. One idea that stood out was making a hybrid of the F-22 airframe and engines with the F-35’s vastly more sophisticated avionics. Substantial upgrades would be necessary as the 90’s-era F-22 has dated computer systems and needs to be regularly anointed with costly radar absorbent coatings before each mission.

According to the Nikkei Asian Review, the proposal is for an F-22 with strengthened wings and greater fuel capacity, extending range to over 1,350 miles. (For an inexact comparison, the F-22A’s combat radius without extra fuel tanks is listed as 530 miles.) Furthermore, the new Raptor would use the F-35’s modular panels of Radar Absorbent Materials rather than the F-22’s more expensive RAM coatings. Finally, the proposed Raptor would use the F-35’s vastly superior computer, which among myriad benefits, is designed to network sensor data with friendly forces to an unprecedented degree, transforming the stealth jet into a potent force multiplier.

To sweeten the deal, Lockheed is proposing that Japanese firms produce more than 50 to 60% of the components—specifically, the wings, electronics and possibly the engines. Japanese firm IHI has already developed a lightweight X9F-1 vector-thrust turbofan engine that can produce 33,000 pounds of thrust, modeled on the Raptor’s F119 turbofans.

Presumably, the aircraft would also be tailored to use Japanese avionics and weapons such as advanced new XASM-3 anti-ship and AAM-4B anti-aircraft missiles. However, the fuselage, computer, and radar absorbent panels would remain U.S.-manufactured.

This seems like exactly the air-superiority fighter the JASDF would love to acquire—except for bill proposed by Lockheed: the equivalent of $215 million per airplane for an order of seventy Japanese Raptors, scaling down to $188 million if the order increases to 140.

This staggering price point is remarkably in line with a leaked USAF evaluationforecasting a unit price of $206-216 million per plane if Raptor production were reopened. To put this in perspective, USAF F-22As were originally procured for $137 to 150 million each ($179 million 2018 dollars), and advanced 4.5-generation fighters are being exported for $70 to $100 million. Japan’s domestically assembled F-35As, which cost a third more than those built elsewhere, are clocking in at a higher-than-expected price of around $130 million (15 billion yen).

The offer may also not appeal to Tokyo because it seems unlikely that the most critical bits of technology—the RAM panels and computer systems—would be transferred to Japan. That would mean Japanese companies could fall even further behind in future efforts to develop domestic stealth fighters. At the same time, the Japanese Raptors would have to somehow circumvent the 1997 Obey Amendment, which specifically forbids any U.S. domestic funding going to an F-22 export variant, as well as the zero-sum trade warfare perspective of the Trump administration.

Though several sources claim the F-22/F-35 hybrid is a frontrunner for the F-3 program, The National Interest’s Dave Majumdar argues that the above problems likely mean Lockheed’s proposal is doomed.

However, it’s important to remember that Tokyo has also submitted Requests For Information to other companies including Boeing, Northrop Grumman and BAE. Some sources allege Boeing is proposing upgraded F-15s—which could imply a low-observable Silent Eagle-style design , or cooperation on the U.S. Navy’s next-generation F-A-XX project. Grumman, which devised the Raptor’s unsuccessful rival, the YF-23, has alsotalked up its interest in the F-3 project, though publicly available details are scant.

Japan has also reportedly consulted with the UK’s BAE regarding its sixth-generationTempest stealth fighter project . While a Japanese-British plane would be a longshot, this possibility hi-lights that Japan originally planned the F-3 to be a generation ahead of the F-22 and F-35.

The JSDF may be worried by its experience with the Mitsubishi F-2 single-engine fighter —basically a heavily upgraded F-16 built 60 percent domestically at four times the price ($127 million per plane!) The result was more expensive and less capable than Japan’s twin-engine F-15Js and will need replacing by 2030. To add insult to injury, a fifth of the F-2 fleet was damaged or destroyed by a tsunami wave in 2011.

If an obscene amount of money must be spent on a new stealth jet, Tokyo might prefer for that plane to represent a genuine technological breakthrough, rather than a refinement of an earlier fifth-generation design that may no longer be in its prime by the time it enters service.

On the other hand, the F-2 story also illustrates Japan’s willingness to pay premium prices for bespoke, locally-assembled weapon systems. In theory, Tokyo will decide which direction it will pursue for its air-superiority stealth fighters by the end of 2018—an accelerated schedule necessitated by the imminent pasturing of its venerable F-4EJ Phantom jets and eventual retirement of the F-2.

Sébastien Roblin holds a Master’s Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/only-thing-might-kill-new-f-22-fighter-japan-30342?page=0,1

 

[Cookie Monster]

I don't think India will have issues getting the F-35 eventually if it pushes Uncle Sam really hard. Uncle Sam is willing to offer an arm and a leg at the moment to appease India.

I don't think India is seeking any American aircraft at the moment. The Americans even lost out during MMRCA tender.

The Americans are desperate to sell a fighter to India. They want to infiltrate the Indian market, but just not at the expense of offering their very best. My own analysis is that India isn't very interested in American options unless the Americans immediately offer their best.

It also has to be said that there is some level of discomfort buying American. The Indians have a history of buying Russian. This is a quantum leap change.

Agreed. I don't think it's lost on India that USA has a history of using its defence equipment as leverage. I think this is the primary reason bcuz India usually acquires in huge numbers. Having American equipment in huge numbers would translate to that much more US influence.

As for F35. Yes India could get it and US would sell it. India can afford the high price tag too. The reason why India wouldn't go for that is bcuz India has already purchased Rafale...and now it wouldn't make much sense(from a logistical point of view) to operate a few squadrons of Rafales and a few squadrons of F35.

Additionally bcuz F35 is the latest cash cow...US wouldn't transfer its production line or anything of that sort to India like its offering for F16. If it happens, it would be an off the shelf purchase with US trying to guard its latest and greatest tech as much as possible and therefore almost zero possibility of any ToT. This would also be an unfavorable outcome since India has been trying to get help from other countries to further its own domestic capability.

IMO these are the reasons India isn't going for F35 for now. This leaves the perfect opportunity for US to try and force F16 for India's new MMRCA.

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Modi isn't going anywhere. He is winning and everyone already knows that.

Having said that, Modi is extremely cunning. He appeases all sides to reap full benefit, but takes sides when he has to. There is absolutely no better example than the Israeli vote at the UN and the S-400 deal. Wow. Modi is forcing his way with Uncle Sam and that is not easy I have to admit.

There is 70-90% chance that Modi would lose in 2019. Wait for Dec 11th.

 

[Cookie Monster]

There is 70-90% chance that Modi would lose in 2019. Wait for Dec 11th.

Based on the hype and image Modi has created for himself...I think he will be re-elected.

The whole agenda since the beginning has revolved around painting Congress as weak while Modi is the strongman who will deal with India's enemies. This in addition to making some noise about "make in India", "swach bharat", etc. and the concerted effort using the media to instill this strongman Modi image in ppl's hearts...

The only real competition that existed was Congress...and through this campaign of maligning it while showing BJP/Modi as the savior...my bets are all on Modi winning again.

 

[randomradio]

Yes, Indonesian government does acknowledge what will be the negative side of KFX program with US become engine and technology supplier. That is why there is some kind of thinking to abandon the program but yesterday the government said that it will not cancel the program but rather enter a renegotiation process that can take a year to complete.

KFX program itself is started by a government who is pro USA thats why we buy 24 refurbished F 16 Block 52 during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) administration. South Korea has chosen US over European to help the program, it makes the situation getting more difficult to us. If you follow KFX news you will see that there is inconvenience happening in KFX project particularly between Indonesian and American. American try to restrict some technology from Indonesia engineers.

If you notice the situation within 1998-2005 you will know that US and some European countries embargoed Indonesia from buying their defense product due to East Timor problem. USA has also warn Indonesia not to procure SU 35, it makes the transaction is still not conducted until now. We know it is not easy to have a relationship with USA.

Indonesia is better off dealing with India in the long term. Our security situation is very similar. S Korea is not a strong partner for the SCS.

As for F35. Yes India could get it and US would sell it. India can afford the high price tag too. The reason why India wouldn't go for that is bcuz India has already purchased Rafale...and now it wouldn't make much sense(from a logistical point of view) to operate a few squadrons of Rafales and a few squadrons of F35.

The navy can go for the F-35. We can use the F-35 from the 2 carriers as well as the 4 LHDs.

 

[Rohit Chaudhary]

On the plus side for pakistan. We have 43+ years of experience with F 16s many different blocks. India will take decades to catch up in F16 vs f 16 battles even if they get upgraded 2018 variants of the bird.
Interesting times india with F16s hehe a little too late decades infact but haha atleast we will get to see F16 vs F16 perfect opportunity to shut indian mouths they always complaint pakistan had usa tech no wonder we with russian tech always have to be careful .

F16 vs f16 is not going to happen unless you fanticise it. It would rather be f16 block 50/52 vs rafale

I wouldn't call it outdated...the latest F16 configuration is quite capable. IMO the biggest drawback for India would be the leverage US will have over India if this F16 deal materializes.

If US forces F16 and India settles for it then India will acquire it in numbers since they recently just floated out the need for a sizeable quantity of single engine medium fighter aircrafts. Just imagine the threat of not supplying critical spares or withholding critical technologies in case if India gets out of line of uncle sam's wishes.

They could not stop us buying iranian oil and lately buying s400.moreover we will soon buy four frigates from russia and uncle sam can do nothing abt it except pulling his hair... Yeah and for all those who are dreaming of vintage f16 in india...happy dreamingg

That is rather your wish list, but whether Trump complies is a whole different story. You already transgressed by buying something from someone you weren't supposed to. In other words, don't expect to be rewarded when you backstab your American ally in the back. This isn't the usual milking time for India. This is payback time. The F-16 in any configuration is not a reward for India. It is a fighter being shoved down your throat.

This is result of appeasing all sides and disloyalty.



Your own words are speculation too.

May be you are not so clear about what backstabbing and disloyality means. We never promised them of not buying russian equipments. For the day one we made it clear that we are going for s400 and usa can never ever dictate us like it did to pakistan.As far as paying back is concerned we have surprise coming for americans and uncle sam.. wait and watch

 

[SuvarnaTeja]

Based on the hype and image Modi has created for himself...I think he will be re-elected.

The whole agenda since the beginning has revolved around painting Congress as weak while Modi is the strongman who will deal with India's enemies. This in addition to making some noise about "make in India", "swach bharat", etc. and the concerted effort using the media to instill this strongman Modi image in ppl's hearts...

The only real competition that existed was Congress...and through this campaign of maligning it while showing BJP/Modi as the savior...my bets are all on Modi winning again.

May be be you have not followed the election trends in India.

The performance of BJP in Gujarat and UP was very bad.

Now they would be losing Rajastan, MP, Chattisgarh etc.

BJP is fast losing in its strong holds in the BIMARU states and they can never make up for their loses in the Hindi belt in other places.

Also, you need to note that if BJP does not get majority on its own then Modi/Shah/Doval combined would be kicked out the next day. The allies of BJP are totally miffed these people. At best BJP could expect to be a single largest party forming an NDA government. NDA government would be quite different than BJP government.

 

[Imran Khan]

only a stupid will order now an 50 years old fighter design

Rolled out at Fort Worth, Texas on December 13th, 1973. First flight on January 20th, 1974 which is the very first flight of an F-16

 

[Ryuzaki]

Yeah...Buy 100 F-16 to counter S-400,10 P-8 to counter frigates,More Apaches to counter subs,it's not going to work

 

[kmc_chacko]

Why settle for so less. Why not ask for F-35/F-22 hybrid.


The Only Thing That Might Kill a New F-22 Fighter for Japan

The insane cost.

by Sebastien Roblin
In August 2018, the Nikkei Asian Review detailed aspects of a proposal by Lockheed Martin to partner with Japanese companies to produce a new model of the F-22 Raptor, the world’s most capable air-superiority fighter jet. The stealth fighter would be upgraded with avionics and radar-absorbent material technologies developed for the newer, more affordable F-35 Lightning .

Japan is license-building forty-two F-35s but is not entirely satisfied with the multi-role jet, which was designed to penetrate enemy air defenses. By contrast, the Japanese Air Self Defense Force is foremost concerned with patrolling the skies around the far-flung Japanese islands against intrusion by Russian or Chinese warplanes and missiles. Though the F-35’s stealth characteristics have allowed it to heavily out-perform non-stealth jetsin mock air battles, it’s still not as optimized for air-to-air combat as the Raptor, particularly for Within-Visual Range engagements .

Tokyo sought to procure Raptors back in the 2000s but was frustrated by a quasi-ban imposed by Congress in 1997 on exporting F-22s. Worse, the Raptor production line was closed in 2011, making it impractically expensive to order more of them.

For this reason, Tokyo spent $360 million developing its own stealth fighter demonstrator, the X-2 Shinshin, detailed in this article . In theory, the X-2 was to be evolved into an even more advanced sixth-generation fighter designated the Mitsubishi F-3. However, the defense ministry had an attack of the jitters in 2017 when they saw the projected $40 billion dollars necessary to home develop a stealth fighter—and that’s not counting procurement!

This was why in early 2018 word got out that Tokyo was looking for foreign partners to help it build the F-3, rather than relying exclusively on a domestic design. One idea that stood out was making a hybrid of the F-22 airframe and engines with the F-35’s vastly more sophisticated avionics. Substantial upgrades would be necessary as the 90’s-era F-22 has dated computer systems and needs to be regularly anointed with costly radar absorbent coatings before each mission.

According to the Nikkei Asian Review, the proposal is for an F-22 with strengthened wings and greater fuel capacity, extending range to over 1,350 miles. (For an inexact comparison, the F-22A’s combat radius without extra fuel tanks is listed as 530 miles.) Furthermore, the new Raptor would use the F-35’s modular panels of Radar Absorbent Materials rather than the F-22’s more expensive RAM coatings. Finally, the proposed Raptor would use the F-35’s vastly superior computer, which among myriad benefits, is designed to network sensor data with friendly forces to an unprecedented degree, transforming the stealth jet into a potent force multiplier.

To sweeten the deal, Lockheed is proposing that Japanese firms produce more than 50 to 60% of the components—specifically, the wings, electronics and possibly the engines. Japanese firm IHI has already developed a lightweight X9F-1 vector-thrust turbofan engine that can produce 33,000 pounds of thrust, modeled on the Raptor’s F119 turbofans.

Presumably, the aircraft would also be tailored to use Japanese avionics and weapons such as advanced new XASM-3 anti-ship and AAM-4B anti-aircraft missiles. However, the fuselage, computer, and radar absorbent panels would remain U.S.-manufactured.

This seems like exactly the air-superiority fighter the JASDF would love to acquire—except for bill proposed by Lockheed: the equivalent of $215 million per airplane for an order of seventy Japanese Raptors, scaling down to $188 million if the order increases to 140.

This staggering price point is remarkably in line with a leaked USAF evaluationforecasting a unit price of $206-216 million per plane if Raptor production were reopened. To put this in perspective, USAF F-22As were originally procured for $137 to 150 million each ($179 million 2018 dollars), and advanced 4.5-generation fighters are being exported for $70 to $100 million. Japan’s domestically assembled F-35As, which cost a third more than those built elsewhere, are clocking in at a higher-than-expected price of around $130 million (15 billion yen).

The offer may also not appeal to Tokyo because it seems unlikely that the most critical bits of technology—the RAM panels and computer systems—would be transferred to Japan. That would mean Japanese companies could fall even further behind in future efforts to develop domestic stealth fighters. At the same time, the Japanese Raptors would have to somehow circumvent the 1997 Obey Amendment, which specifically forbids any U.S. domestic funding going to an F-22 export variant, as well as the zero-sum trade warfare perspective of the Trump administration.

Though several sources claim the F-22/F-35 hybrid is a frontrunner for the F-3 program, The National Interest’s Dave Majumdar argues that the above problems likely mean Lockheed’s proposal is doomed.

However, it’s important to remember that Tokyo has also submitted Requests For Information to other companies including Boeing, Northrop Grumman and BAE. Some sources allege Boeing is proposing upgraded F-15s—which could imply a low-observable Silent Eagle-style design , or cooperation on the U.S. Navy’s next-generation F-A-XX project. Grumman, which devised the Raptor’s unsuccessful rival, the YF-23, has alsotalked up its interest in the F-3 project, though publicly available details are scant.

Japan has also reportedly consulted with the UK’s BAE regarding its sixth-generationTempest stealth fighter project . While a Japanese-British plane would be a longshot, this possibility hi-lights that Japan originally planned the F-3 to be a generation ahead of the F-22 and F-35.

The JSDF may be worried by its experience with the Mitsubishi F-2 single-engine fighter —basically a heavily upgraded F-16 built 60 percent domestically at four times the price ($127 million per plane!) The result was more expensive and less capable than Japan’s twin-engine F-15Js and will need replacing by 2030. To add insult to injury, a fifth of the F-2 fleet was damaged or destroyed by a tsunami wave in 2011.

If an obscene amount of money must be spent on a new stealth jet, Tokyo might prefer for that plane to represent a genuine technological breakthrough, rather than a refinement of an earlier fifth-generation design that may no longer be in its prime by the time it enters service.

On the other hand, the F-2 story also illustrates Japan’s willingness to pay premium prices for bespoke, locally-assembled weapon systems. In theory, Tokyo will decide which direction it will pursue for its air-superiority stealth fighters by the end of 2018—an accelerated schedule necessitated by the imminent pasturing of its venerable F-4EJ Phantom jets and eventual retirement of the F-2.

Sébastien Roblin holds a Master’s Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China. He has also worked in education, editing, and refugee resettlement in France and the United States. He currently writes on security and military history for War Is Boring.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/only-thing-might-kill-new-f-22-fighter-japan-30342?page=0,1

strangely what i noticed recently is Tata Advanced Systems is gearing up to do something big, will that be . . . . .