BREAKING: PAF base Mianwali under attack, suicide bombers and heavy weapons in use

[manpk77]

With a robust political and judicial system, more people will be engaging with it to look for solutions to their problems

Pakistan army will not worry much about civilians, they never did. They do not need civilians to be more frank, they want soldiers.

 

[RescueRanger]

A strong political system is army's natural ally. But khakis are such duffers, they keep going after popular leader whenever one emerges. They have this colonial hubris and it can traced to the PMA culture which is modelled on Sandhurst. This is how they are trained to believe they are somehow superior.

Ayub Doctrine.

 

[PakAlp]

****

Yes valid point, but there must be a middle ground. The only problem with foreverwars is that they ain't forever, sooner or later, one side loses. I mean take Peshawar, compare Peshawar and its present façade (if you will) to the Peshawar of 1995, are you telling me there has been no change for the better, what about Mardan, Saidu-Shariff, Mansehra, DI Khan, Bhakkar, Quetta even, Quetta of 2005 vs Quetta now is a vastly different place. No?

Finding the middle ground is vital, education will lead the way. Bullets and bombs can only solve "so many" problems before you reach an impasse.

I worked in Afghanistan, empowering teachers:
View attachment 969210

View attachment 969211

I made some life long friends in Afghanistan, and learned about the core issues behind their hate for Pakistan, some people especially those outside Kabul were open to seeing things from the Pakistani perspective, like my good friend Jumma Gul. Jumma Gul was murdered by the Taliban because he was an interpreter for USAID, his crime? helping doctors translate and interpret material for pregnant women on maternity health.
View attachment 969212

I even trained their police force:
View attachment 969213
The man circled is (late) Colonel Saifullah of the ANP, Colonel Saifullah was killed on 24th April 2021 on the outskirts of Afghanistan trying to stop the Taliban advance.

---

I have worked extensively in Balochistan and KP, I have been lucky to speak to people from a cross-section of society here, believe me when I say, this is not an idealistic view, education really is KEY.

Pakistan should have focused on education 40 years back when the Afghans first came to Pakistan, even now we dont have proper education system in Pakistan where students are given education but also the education system builds up their character, ideology of Pakistan, builds up a well mannered citizens who work hard to make Pakistan in to a strong state.

 

[RescueRanger]

****

Pakistan should have focused on education 40 years back when the Afghans first came to Pakistan, even now we dont have proper education system in Pakistan where students are given education but also the education system builds up their character, ideology of Pakistan, builds up a well mannered citizens who work hard to make Pakistan in to a strong state.

The best gift my family gave me was a good education. I know its value and judging by your posts so do you.

 

[PakAlp]

The best gift my family gave me was a good education. I know its value and judging by your posts so do you.

Angel Jibrael said to Holy Prophet peace be upon him "Read"
“Recite in the name of your Lord who created – Created man from a clinging substance. Recite and your Lord is the most Generous – Who taught by the pen – Taught man that which he knew not.” [Quran, 96: 1-5]

So education is very important, it builds up individual characters and individuals build great empires.

 

[Goritoes]

Like i said sir you are welcome to your opinion, but a middle ground must be found.

History will prove me right, I wish will be proven wrong but only time will tell, but you can Mark my words or save them, there will be no Peace in Pakistan for as long as the Ethnic groups of Pakistan completely give up on their violent and backward culture and Riwayaat.

 

[Gripen9]

so how did the Col get martyred? in IBO or ambush? Was he leading? as Col is a unit commander?

Million dollar question.

 

[Goritoes]

Million dollar question.

could be a pro-PTI col, or his audio or phone calls were traced by ISI or MI hence properly disposed, PA has done similar things in past.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

My analysis based on available information mapped from Jan 2023 to Present day: The Afghan Connection.

View attachment 969061

In the above map I have mapped the known UNHCR refugee camps inside Pakistan along with areas from previous IBOs and TA's that suggest known T-e-J and TTP networks are active. I have also mapped the most recent number of armed attacks against Pakistan Security facilities. What makes this mapping most important is the critical piece in the puzzle and that is the Thikar Province, Afghanistan (I have marked its boundary and highlighted in Blue) more on this province and its importance later in the thread:

I have also mapped the locations where all senior TTP leaders have met their end inside Afghanistan starting from 2019 to present day:
View attachment 969072

• 29th August 2019, Qari Saifullah Mehsud, the leader of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan's Qari Hussain Suicide Brigade, was sent to hell in Khost, Afghanistan.
• 10th January 2022, TTP senior commander & spokesperson Khalid Balti alias Muhammad Khurasani was sent to hell in Nangarhar, Afghanistan.
• 7th August 2022 Mualana Uqabi Bajauri, a key Tehrik-e-Taliban Commander, was killed in a "landmine blast" and sent to hell in Kunar, Afghanistan.
• 8th August 2022, the leader of the Jamat-Ul-Ahrar, Omar Khaled Khorasani, was sent to hell in Paktika Province, Afghanistan.
• 27th October 2022, a TTP commander, known as "Asadullah Pehelwan", was sent to hell in Kandahar province.
• 29 September 2022, TTP leader Akhtar Khalil was sent to hell in Nangarhar, Afghanistan.
• 10th September 2023, Badshah Khan Mehsud, considered to be the right-hand man and extremely close confidante of the TTP Chief, Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud was injured in Paktika province of Afghanistan.
• 8th October 2023, A top commander of the TTP from Lakki Marwat, Tipu Gul Marwat, was sent to hell in Kunar, Afghanistan.
• 11th October 2023, A senior TTP terrorist commander Atiqur Rehman aka Tipu Gul Marwat, was sent to hell in Kunar, Afghanistan.
• 23rd October 2023, TTP commander Chamtu Waziristani was sent to hell by unidentified gunmen along with 3 other terrorists in Khost province, Afghanistan.
• 5th November 2023, Fazal Ameen, a prominent TTP commander who had prior associations with Lashkar-e-Islam and subsequently joined TTP and JuA, was blown to smithereens in Marko, Nangarhar province, Afghanistan.

Suspected Belligerents:

• Haqqani Network
• TTP
• TeJ Pakistan (TTP)
• Tehreek e Lashkar e Islam (See Quetta Shura)
• Jamat-Ul-Ahrar
• Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud Brigade
• Miranshah Shura
• Quetta Shura
• Peshawar Shura
• Loyalists of Adnan Rashid (Ansar-Al Anseer / TTP)

Recent activity inside Pakistan:

6th November 2023: 4 Pakistani Army soldiers including Lt. Col were martyred during an IBO in Khyber today.
View attachment 969111
6th November 2023: Two police constables were injured when their check post in D.I. Khan came under sustained gunfire lasting 1 hour.

4th November 2023 Attack on MM Alam Base Mianwali:
View attachment 969083

3rd November 2023, attack in D.I. Khan.
View attachment 969039

30th October 2023, Parachinar and Khurram clashes - 30 casualties

18th October 2023 Warsak Road, Peshawar, one police constable killed during at attack on a Police Check post:
View attachment 969043

7th October 2023, Parachinar assault on a police patrol resulted in the death of one constable and injuries to the driver:
View attachment 969049

Captured child suicide bomber with live vest July 2023:
View attachment 969032
Jan 2023 attacker on Police check post in Takhta Beg, Jamrud was identified as Sheikh Malang, AKA: Astana Gul, a terrorist Afghan with links to Jalalabad Shura.
View attachment 969050

---

Now revisiting the Afghan Connection:
Yasir Parakay Senior TTP commander is presently under the protection of the Afghan Taliban in Kabul
View attachment 969057
Known Afghan terrorists who have joined the TTP: Form Tikhar Province, Afghanistan
View attachment 969059View attachment 969060
The May 2023 attacker was non other than an Afghan university student who had been operating deep inside Pakistan (sent straight to HELL)
View attachment 969051View attachment 969052

TTP lieutenants can be seen in this video alongside an Afghan Government vehicle
View attachment 969121

TTP leadership seen here in an Afghan MI-17
View attachment 969122

Finally if the above was not enough to under the tacit support the TTP enjoys from the Afghan Taliban: In a recently released video Hamid Khurasani commander Afghan Taliban wished Mehsud group success by stating "May Allah grant our brethren who are engaged in combat under Mehsud (Noor Wali Mehsud) and others (opposing the Pakistani establishment) the opportunity to hoist the banner of the Islamic Emirate in Islamabad one day."
View attachment 969101

Note the new "Chain of Command" in the TTP:
View attachment 969055View attachment 969056

We have seen evidence of the Afghan Taliban facilitating the cross border incursions by TTP and affiliates even going as far as providing safe-heavens, weapons, equipment and even the use of the Afghan Mi17's for transportation of terrorists and weaponry. A terrorist group cannot launch massive cross-border attacks involving a significant number of terrorists inside Pakistan without the support and approval of the Taliban regime. If these doubts have any substance, this is tantamount to declaring war against a state.

OK. Now, what's Pak's plan to counter it?

Some "brain storming" from this Fakir:

• Given the circumstances, an all-out war isn't feasible.
• Intelligence war is the way to go to minimize the losses.
• Leverage the warring factions in the Afghan power structures, and her land-lockedness.
• Leverage the technological advances for the precise attacks deep inside Afganistan by increasing human intelligence assets over there.
• Etc.

 

[PakAlp]

History will prove me right, I wish will be proven wrong but only time will tell, but you can Mark my words or save them, there will be no Peace in Pakistan for as long as the Ethnic groups of Pakistan completely give up on their violent and backward culture and Riwayaat.

The tribal people want to preserve their culture and way of life, the Pakistani state is busy promoting bollywood and woke culture through mass media. Just watch our channels. The state just needs to engage to not support terrorism and in return respect their way of life, culture and language.

Afghans leaving Pakistan will not fix terrorism, we also have other issues such as Pakistan army entering tribal areas, I remember when they first entered in 2002, JUI, JI opposed it with protests and the tribal militias were furious, even PmlN opposed it. The tribal leaders didn't want Pakistan army there, and slowly the differences and hate built up. The Pakistan army collaboration with USA didn't help.

A good read on how the current problems started.

Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Gripen9]

could be a pro-PTI col, or his audio or phone calls were traced by ISI or MI hence properly disposed, PA has done similar things in past.

LOL, you took it in a totally different direction.

In my opinion, this is our mindset of "leading from the front" or not trusting junior ranks to conduct ops properly. How many Capt/Maj let alone Cols did the US lose during its 20 years in Iraq & Afghanistan?
We have lost so many,

 

[RescueRanger]

OK. Now, what's Pak's plan to counter it?

Some "brain storming" from this Fakir:

• Given the circumstances, an all-out war isn't feasible.
• Intelligence war is the way to go to minimize the losses.
• Leverage the warring factions in the Afghan power structures, and her land-lockedness.
• Leverage the technological advances for the precise attacks deep inside Afganistan by increasing human intelligence assets over there.
• Etc.

Dollas, that is the end game. Just wait and see, calls are being made to uncle Beijing as we speak. Once the green light is given from there you will see some more concrete actions on the ground. China has already mentioned CPEC+Afghanistan and Central Asia. https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/china-pakistan-and-the-taliban-cpec-in-afghanistan/

China and Chinese investors have seen the potential from Gwadar developments, lots of money flowing in from Singapore, UAE and of course China to this tiny strip of Land.
Further reading: https://www.business-standard.com/a...ng-47-000-jobs-in-7-years-119100900292_1.html

You only need to visit the Gwadar Business Centre to see the amount of money pouring into the region, China is NOT stupid and it never makes stupid deals. China has set her aims on the more than $1 trillion USD worth of mineral wealth in Afghanistan, particularly Cobalt which :

Baghlan and the surrounding mountains have the untapped potential for Uranium mining:

https://nps.edu/documents/105988371/107571254/Baghlan_Development.pdf/c78f7b1a-893e-48dc-aae9-ac325aafd446

China is uniquely positioned to effectively take over the stalled national railroad project of Afghanistan:

China can just use the Nigeria Model to achieve this:

China’s CCECC secures $3.02bn Nigerian Eastern Railway contract

China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), a subsidiary of China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), has signed a contract with Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Transportation for the development of Nigerian Eastern Railway.

www.railway-technology.com

---

So what is in this for Afghanistan? Well money of course, the Taliban government is cash strapped and starved of friends, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Türkiye have all adopted a hands-off approach regarding development in Afghanistan. For now, the illicit wealth and reserves are propping up the regime in Kabul but this wont be sustainable and if the Taliban's little pet project is to work, they need faloos.

Even Malaysian investors who had planned on developing a cellular infrastructure in Afghanistan pulled out owing to fears the Taliban can't manage the country.

Talib's are desperate to show that they can run the country and can establish a working, functioning government that can stand on the world stage, but for this they need partners, and they need CASH/Faloos/Dollas!

China can provide BOTH, the people of Afghanistan see the Taliban as heroes and all live happily ever after...

What is in it for Af-Pak relations? Well believe it or not my analysis is all the TTP drama is Afghanistan's way of coming into the negotiating table from a position of strength, the TTP being the stick to the Chinese cash being the carrot. For Pakistan's cooperation of transit rights among other things the Chinese will get Kabul to call of their "dogs/TTP". Pakistan has also developed its only counter policy to this which is to flood Afghanistan with returnees ahead of any future negotiations. Tit-for-Tat if you will. You will see in the coming weeks and months a narrative built in the press and SM about Afghanistan declaring proxy war with Pakistan, this was on the horizon much sabre rattling may ensue with the odd firework here or there.

Pakistan wants a bigger piece of the pie...

Optics matter...

Ultimately its all about money.

 

[Goritoes]

The tribal people want to preserve their culture and way of life, the Pakistani state is busy promoting bollywood and woke culture through mass media. Just watch our channels. The state just needs to engage to not support terrorism and in return respect their way of life, culture and language.

Afghans leaving Pakistan will not fix terrorism, we also have other issues such as Pakistan army entering tribal areas, I remember when they first entered in 2002, JUI, JI opposed it with protests and the tribal militias were furious, even PmlN opposed it. The tribal leaders didn't want Pakistan army there, and slowly the differences and hate built up. The Pakistan army collaboration with USA didn't help.

A good read on how the current problems started.

Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So in short the Pashtoon/Tribals are the problem, their way of life and culture has cost Pakistan 90 thousand Lives and billions of dollars in Economic loss.

LOL, you took it in a totally different direction.

In my opinion, this is our mindset of "leading from the front" or not trusting junior ranks to conduct ops properly. How many Capt/Maj let alone Cols did the US lose during its 20 years in Iraq & Afghanistan?
We have lost so many,

Aslam Chaudry was killed after MI leaked his movement to PPP who later leaked to TTP, Pakistan Army MI/ISI has done it in past, or maybe this Col was charging with a sword in his hand considering himself to be Incredible Hulk or lover of dying as a Martyr hence completely ignoring all SOP's of any ambush, my bet is that he might have disposed.

 

[Jango]

The question is why such incidents keep taking place? What is the purpose of intellignece agency if it cant stop similar incidents, conducted in the same manner over and over again?

This is why hearings such as these should be at least partially public. People have a right to know, and this also keeps the organization/government accountable. A Pak Army failure should be regarded as a GoP failure. In Pakistan only they are seen as separate entities.

Failures of the US Army are attributed as a muck up by the US, not the CIA drone operator who mistook a target.

Investigation of failure in our country should be seen as a constructive opportunity by our organizations rather than a blame opportunity.

Me, a complete amateur at this, can see some major improvement points:

1- Somebody would have done recce of the infiltration point. It wouldn't have been a glance, rather a long enough observation so you accurately know the routine. Why did no one pick that up? This is actively scanning for threats. Not simply being passive with sentries in posts.

2- Then the obvious dark spots, electrified fences, motion systems, absence of any retaliation for 3 hours at least, and so on.

I would be less critical of the PAF if they actually learn some lessons from this incident in earnest and then implement them.

Magr yeh log Alhamdulillah likh rahay hain when multiple servicement were killed? Sidhu is congratulating? Amateur hour.

 

[CriticalThought]

Dollas, that is the end game. Just wait and see, calls are being made to uncle Beijing as we speak. Once the green light is given from there you will see some more concrete actions on the ground. China has already mentioned CPEC+Afghanistan and Central Asia. https://thediplomat.com/2023/06/china-pakistan-and-the-taliban-cpec-in-afghanistan/

China and Chinese investors have seen the potential from Gwadar developments, lots of money flowing in from Singapore, UAE and of course China to this tiny strip of Land.
Further reading: https://www.business-standard.com/a...ng-47-000-jobs-in-7-years-119100900292_1.html

You only need to visit the Gwadar Business Centre to see the amount of money pouring into the region, China is NOT stupid and it never makes stupid deals. China has set her aims on the more than $1 trillion USD worth of mineral wealth in Afghanistan, particularly Cobalt which :
View attachment 969231
View attachment 969232

Baghlan and the surrounding mountains have the untapped potential for Uranium mining:

https://nps.edu/documents/105988371/107571254/Baghlan_Development.pdf/c78f7b1a-893e-48dc-aae9-ac325aafd446

China is uniquely positioned to effectively take over the stalled national railroad project of Afghanistan:
View attachment 969238
China can just use the Nigeria Model to achieve this:

China’s CCECC secures $3.02bn Nigerian Eastern Railway contract

China Civil Engineering Construction Corporation (CCECC), a subsidiary of China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC), has signed a contract with Nigeria’s Federal Ministry of Transportation for the development of Nigerian Eastern Railway.

www.railway-technology.com

---

So what is in this for Afghanistan? Well money of course, the Taliban government is cash strapped and starved of friends, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman and Türkiye have all adopted a hands-off approach regarding development in Afghanistan. For now, the illicit wealth and reserves are propping up the regime in Kabul but this wont be sustainable and if the Taliban's little pet project is to work, they need faloos.

Even Malaysian investors who had planned on developing a cellular infrastructure in Afghanistan pulled out owing to fears the Taliban can't manage the country.

Talib's are desperate to show that they can run the country and can establish a working, functioning government that can stand on the world stage, but for this they need partners, and they need CASH/Faloos/Dollas!

China can provide BOTH, the people of Afghanistan see the Taliban as heroes and all live happily ever after...

What is in it for Af-Pak relations? Well believe it or not my analysis is all the TTP drama is Afghanistan's way of coming into the negotiating table from a position of strength, the TTP being the stick to the Chinese cash being the carrot. For Pakistan's cooperation of transit rights among other things the Chinese will get Kabul to call of their "dogs/TTP". Pakistan has also developed its only counter policy to this which is to flood Afghanistan with returnees ahead of any future negotiations. Tit-for-Tat if you will. You will see in the coming weeks and months a narrative built in the press and SM about Afghanistan declaring proxy war with Pakistan, this was on the horizon much sabre rattling may ensue with the odd firework here or there.

Pakistan wants a bigger piece of the pie...

Optics matter...
View attachment 969247

Ultimately its all about money.

An overly simplistic explanation. At this point, there are number of alternative explanations.

• Attempt by Islamists to kick the military in the butt to get their act together on Palestine. The message: “If your jets aren’t available against Israel, you don’t deserve to keep them”.
• Attempt by pro-Israel forces to drop a hint to keep out of Palestinian business. Collate with recent border tensions with India. Message: “If you want to keep your jets, stay away”.
• Attempt by India to repay for the insurgence that has recently warmed up in Kashmir. The ‘old crowd’ of the anchors and analysts have been hinting at payback. Message: “We might not be able to re-enact Feb 27, but we can still act”
• The TTP/Taliban nexus and their misgivings are another possibility.

At this point, the motives are not clear at all.