America Is Winning The Arms Sales War With Russia And China For Indonesia

[vi-va]

It is between F 35 and SU 35 for the replacement of F 5 squadron. The number is between 12-16 planes. New Minister of Defense prefer F35 and he has already had talk with American Minister of Defense. There are only 2 options and Jokowi himself with his advisors will decide.

Acquisition of 32 F16 block 70 itself is for replacement of 32 Hawk 200/100. This acquisition is not as urgent as F 5 squadron replacement since our Hawk which have been delivered in 1998 can still operate until 2030. As Corona virus outbreak effect our economy and urgent acquisition for 2 heavy frigates, 3 submarines, 2 OPV for Navy besides tanker and AWACS planes for Air Force, I predict they are not going to buy this fighter until this administration ends in November 2024.

If Indonesia Korea KFX/IFX program renegotiation is completed with satisfactory result for both sides, I believe Indonesia will buy IFX fighter instead of F 16 after 2024 if KFX program is successful and can start mass production in 2026 as plan.

For SU35 or F35 acquisition for F5 replacement. I predict we will buy F35 for this 2020-2024 period but in order to keep balance with Russian and also due to the fact we have already signed contract for SU35 although not effective yet, S35 contract will not be cancelled but rather postpone for 2024-2039 period. Our Minister of Defense Deputy also said that SU 35 contracts is not cancelled but he said at the mean time it cannot become effective contract due to CATSA problem.

Anyway, we still need heavy fighter like Su 35 for long range attack and also it can perform sea target attack with Brahmost missile. As our future conflict may likely happen in the sea due to our sea border dispute, this fighters are still needed.

Possibility to acquire F35

Talking about the possibility to acquire F 35, I can say it is very possible. Any way, Indonesia has already had access with F35 technology with its participation in KFX/IFX program where Lockheed Martin is involved in the program as well and has given about 35 F35 critical technologies in KFX/IFX program.

Geopolitically, USA also see Indonesia as its important ally and it is proven on how US help Indonesia Central Bank with 60 billion dollar Repo facility deal that can make Indonesia use the money to stabilize Rupiah value if necessary. This deal itself has stabilized Rupiah last week even though we havent used it since Rupiah trading during any economic crisis is more caused by psychological reason then actual supply and demand in real sector.



No they are no TOT for missile yet from China. It has promised to give TOT for C 705 missile during Susilo Yudhoyono administration but it turn out to be an empty promise.

My bet, F-35 is just a bait. No way US can provide F-35 to none allied countries, not only Indonesia, but also many others.

F-35 is the US major fighter/attacker in next 20-30 years, how can US be comfortable to risk the leak of confidential technologies?

I don't want to offend anyone, especially I don't want to offend Indonesian friends here, I wish good relationship between both countries.

But I do see too many Indonesians have optimistic views on the relationship with the West, especially US. I understand that the political structure changes after Suharto, and many intellectuals are fed with US so called democracy doctrine.

I personally don't see a bright future of Indonesia, it's just a personal judgement only because I see Indonesia intellectual are too optimistic and fail to see what US so called democracy brought to Indonesia.

Please forgive me if anyone's feeling got hurt.

 

[striver44]

My bet, F-35 is just a bait. No way US can provide F-35 to none allied countries, not only Indonesia, but also many others.

F-35 is the US major fighter/attacker in next 20-30 years, how can US be comfortable to risk the leak of confidential technologies?

I don't want to offend anyone, especially I don't want to offend Indonesian friends here, I wish good relationship between both countries.

But I do see too many Indonesians have optimistic views on the relationship with the West, especially US. I understand that the political structure changes after Suharto, and many intellectuals are fed with US so called democracy doctrine.

I personally don't see a bright future of Indonesia, it's just a personal judgement only because I see Indonesia intellectual are too optimistic and fail to see what US so called democracy brought to Indonesia.

Please forgive me if anyone's feeling got hurt.

well atleast we could have our hands on F16V's. thats still better than SU35

 

[JafarQureshi]

No one can risk CAATSA sanctions. Even India is backing out from s400 deal with Russia.

 

[firas607]

For Indonesia, there is a trade off. Su35 vs sanctions. From an economic point of view Indonisia has a huge trade surplus with the us. On the other hand trade deficit with russia.

Indonesia wont risk its relationship with the us to buy russian fighters

 

[striver44]

For Indonesia, there is a trade off. Su35 vs sanctions. From an economic point of view Indonisia has a huge trade surplus with the us. On the other hand trade deficit with russia.

Indonesia wont risk its relationship with the us to buy russian fighters

we only buy like 11 of those.

 

[firas607]

we only buy like 11 of those.

It's not really the number as much as the russian influence comes with the purchase. It's a big no for the us

 

[PakFactor]

If this goes on CAATSA will destroy the Russian arms industry, this is essentially economic blackmail and I can see this leading to more issues and possibly direct confrontation between US/Russia which isn’t my problem if they kill each other, but it’s all unnecessary headache we would have to deal with. Nations should have free choice to chose and this is ridiculous and I’ll be honest haven’t read in history of a nation as bitchy as the US.

 

[striver44]

It's not really the number as much as the russian influence comes with the purchase. It's a big no for the us

I mean we wont upset our relationship with the US just for the sake of 11 russian jets

 

[vi-va]

Indonesia can not stand up and say no to Americans, what's the point of buying jets? Once being a servant, you guys will bow for a very very long time in future.

 

[Menthol]

F-35 JSF!!!

Or no deal at all!

10 years later F-16 is going to be outdated.

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

No one can risk CAATSA sanctions. Even India is backing out from s400 deal with Russia.

India has done multiple payments for S400 system. Some news said India wants early delivery of such systems. India will call US bluff on Caatsa. However I am concerned with Wuhan virus stuff and how it's going to affect Economy and payments. Military acquisition is going to get real slow.

 

[striver44]

Indonesia can not stand up and say no to Americans, what's the point of buying jets? Once being a servant, you guys will bow for a very very long time in future.

the Americans will always be preferable than China. Im not saying what US did is right, but I think Jakarta must get closer with Washington, especially after Beijing and Jakarta now happens to have some sort of territorial dispute.

 

[vi-va]

the Americans will always be preferable than China. Im not saying what US did is right, but I think Jakarta must get closer with Washington, especially after Beijing and Jakarta now happens to have some sort of territorial dispute.

Just some water dispute, its not about national security, but more like fishing and minerals, like Oil. Nothing big deal and can be settled in future. This water dispute is much less severe than other disputes around SCS.

China is pouring money into Indonesia infrastructure, which is a strong signal and good gesture to improve bilateral relationship.

 

[striver44]

Just some water dispute, its not about national security, but more like fishing and minerals, like Oil. Nothing big deal and can be settled in future. This water dispute is much less severe than other disputes around SCS.

China is pouring money into Indonesia infrastructure, which is a strong signal and good gesture to improve bilateral relationship.

well for you its not a big deal, but with us it's actually quite big deal, thank god Indonesia is not Alone in this one, because you appear to have many dispute with your neighbors ranging from Vietnam, Philippines,Taiwan,Japan. Not to mention The US is now shifting into high gear for a future conflict in the Pacific.

I must say, I want to thank China for making The US weapon industry interesting again after almost 2 decade's of stagnant weapon development because of the low level threat they face in the middle east.

China is pouring billions in loans to many countries ,that when they could not afford to re paid their debts , China will ask in the form many concession. Its a Trap, we are all aware of it.

 

[vi-va]

well for you its not a big deal, but with us it's actually quite big deal, thank god Indonesia is not Alone in this one, because you appear to have many dispute with your neighbors ranging from Vietnam, Philippines,Taiwan,Japan. Not to mention The US is now shifting into high gear for a future conflict in the Pacific.

I must say, I want to thank China for making The US weapon industry interesting again after almost 2 decade's of stagnant weapon development because of the low level threat they face in the middle east.

China is pouring billions in loans to many countries ,that when they could not afford to re paid their debts , China will ask in the form many concession. Its a Trap, we are all aware of it.

It's funny. Who point a gun on your head for the loan? It's so ridiculous you blame the bank when you can NOT pay back. The borrower is responsible for borrowing the money not the opposite.
With such ill mentality, no wonder it's a trap. Your own trap.