You overestimate Japan and underestimate South Korea. South Korea's per capita GDP will surpass Japan in five years. South Korea leads Japan in emerging science and technology. Most importantly, the new generation in Korea is far stronger than that in Japan. Japan has declined.
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Japan is a different beast even in east Asia.They aren't about scaling like china or working upon something to refine and improve like Korea,Japan has this vision and knack of doing what needs to be done.
Japan's naval rise drove Europeans and even the Americans from their land in a decade after perry opened up the nation,under the daimyo system japan collectively had the largest pool of ships and sailors to draw upon when japan flash industrialized it had the highest proportion of able sailors in the world, this is repeating.Japanese navy was primed for long ranged navel warfare,that enabled japan to construct the longest ranged and hardest hitting ships in early 19th century, the first carrier in 1922,three decades after first indigenous steam engine ship.
Robert Lighthizer who drew the plans for supplanting Japanese growth was the same person to also head trump led economic containment of China.In 90s election, Japan was the center of American ire,for they were having it better than the Americans and Trump's original target.
Say China,it can more than meet Japan for rockets to rockets,ships to ships,but the contest is more than that.
I don't wanna play a soothsayer,but Korea isn't challenging Japanese primacy even after 50 years.Korea and even China is more fragile and vulnerable than Japan,while China also has some advantages in certain spheres,like internal market,but that's not detrimental for Japan in 21st century. Compared to Japan ,China has higher risk of interlocking crisis , trigger points in finance, pensions,demography,energy,manufacturing,food & water security,merchandising .China might seem more organised and united compared to India,but compared to Japan ,the north,south, bay area and interior don't cohere well like Japan,urban rich of coastline has less in common with one another from inner parts, corruption and other problem which are much less of a socially volatile issue in Japan. Unlike China,Japan got filthy rich before getting old.
In a destabalized environment where trade gets compromised,gulf region is 5thousand km from shanghai,19 days is required for the transport of oil in those super tankers, 12,791,553 barrels per day to sustain China,Japan needs 1/3 the amount china does ,in an imaginary situation of conflict between cHINA & Japan ,Japan will have access and logistic support from all nation in pacific and and Indian ocean,China have to hope other parties like India stays neutral,and not get naughty ideas .Japan has too many allies.Taiwan ,South Korean might re align with Japan in security matter to preserve their export driven economic sysem,for japanese access,few nation has as much of a posetive relationship with both sides of the persian gulf as japan,one of the few nations that can bring into bear the navel power to the persian gulf and the will do so,makes the nations therein to take seriously the request from tokyo,not a gunboat diplomacy in US style but client patron one,where they pay in cash and accept deliveiries.Unlike China or Koreas,each region in Japan has indigenous overcapacity in energy,no national grid,Fukushima nuclear disaster and tohoku death quake freaked Germany and other nations but japan got out unscathed and plans even more nuclear power station ,only blackout can be imposed by putting foreign boots to shut it down manually.Japan is refined for withstanding calamities,wars and disaster.
Japan has allies that has vested interest in protecting supply lanes,while generating income tax, and good will ,Japan isn't trade-dependent economy it's desourced economy ,the model which china is trying to emulate to an extend,now only a fift of auto made in japan is meant for export,one of the least trade dependent ,Japan can fight wars without serious effects on economy in comparison to many trade dependent nations,like Korea even china to an extend as of right now.
Japan keeps much of the high brain powered design and uses friendly relationship with nation that co locate industrial input and processing stapes that are low skilled ,those are in two region -Americas & SEA. Japan can easily import oil and gas from Americas and has support in Indian ocean ,advantages not available for China or Korea ,Japan can blockade the pacific route.
Korea is simply re innovating and improving upon industries that Japan has excelled upon,they are followers,Japan is about formenting the next revolutionary idea. Koreans can't surpass the Japanese aliens.
Unlike Korean navy, the Japanese has huge experience, starting from the 18th century and the Japanese 4 carrier groups are fully blue water capable and primed for long-ranged warfare, Japanese navy is arguably 2/3 best in the world,the kaga and Izumo carries f35 US's most advanced jet and rarely spends any time in docks, unlike the defunct Indian floating junk that doesn't work and can't leave port.F35 is licensed to Mitsubishi for production,and there's the 6th gen aircraft ,the same Mitsubishi is building utilizing their own ingenuity and acquired know-how from making F 35s,that jet is gonna be more impressive than Korean KFs.China has its DFs, and Japan has invested heavily in removing the eyes of missiles in space. And Japan is still the highest FDI source of SEA,and 70% of all infrastructure projects in SEA has been funded by Japan.Japan has the widest footprint on economies of other nation more so than even America,that has been half a century long process.