Why no export-success for the J-10 so far ?

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

@Sinopakfriend

Indeed, it's a real pity or sometimes even a mess - but so much common in so may forums - that a civilised discussion is nearly impossible on such topics:

for the fan-boys on the one side the J-10 is the best and equal to the latest F-16s and no other opinion is accepted, they immediately fight against with such stupid argument and questions that the LCA is also not exported and what country xyz has so far exported. All point completely irrelevant to the original question, which IMO is a valid one. On the other side the non-export of the J-10 is proof that this type is the worst, no match for the F-16, Mig-29 or anything else ... and they all lack the will and maybe even capability to see a wider picture, which always includes politics and economic considerations.

Anyway I hope that this discussion will continue in a civilised manner ...

Deino

Deino,

My sense is that there are two factors of no export of J10 yet:

1) =

China needed to replace its aging fleet faster than it could manage, hence, all the energies went to production of J10A and parallel improvements into B/C. A lot of subsystems from 5 gen got there way into this fighter.

PAF was supposed to be the first launch customer..but their budget would not allow them to acquire this fighter combined with JF17 performing beyond the PAF expectations. Also PAF has to service loans and interests on their existing committments. Even with soft loans from China, they just cant afford the fighter quite yet.

Furthermore, there is no engine issue for export. Russia will gain much more than just engine price..its the overhaul, spares and other services where they can/will earn money, plus influence.

2)=

CAC has its hands full with J20, J10C for now...so export is not really a priority at all...also, if I am not mistaken CAC is also working on a single engine stealth fighter...might just be evolution of J10 or compression of J20. Sub systems will be recycled.

Since J31 is not going to find its way into PLAAF/PLAN... I see CAC to be busy for some years to come.

Iran was/is interested in J10 but earlier due to sanctions no sale could be made. But now the field is opening up...Russia would like to sell them SUs...so joint Sino-Russian package of SU and J10 will make sense. This is rather realistic prospect becuase both Russia and China want Iran to be part of their geopolitical orbit. Therefore, the porbability is rather high for this to materialise.


IMHO export is just a plus for China at this stage of modernisation. The PLAAF still needs to replace a lot of fighters and fighter-bombers. You know the numbers and regiments far better than I do.

And of course there is always the WS10B and follow-ons there as well.

So all in all, I see Iran to be the first launch customer of J10 in the near future. PAF is out IMO. They might be working with CAC on a stealth single engined fighter for all I can see.

.

You will Get TWO opinions

Pakistanis will say financial and technical issues were involved

Indians would say -- we lobbied with Russia to stop the sale of AL 31

J 10 is a far more capable plane than JF 17 -- We know that

J 10 was a threat ; JF 17 is not a threat to India

Dear Indian,

It is only assumption on your good part to say that JF is not a threat.
Anyhow, it would be nice if you could not overestimate your great capabilities for once.

Regarding, J10 export potential engine is non issue really...and China does not need export order for some time to come to keep its industry running at full speed.

At this stage of development and potential market most of the operators already are in the western camp and will remain so for sometime to come. So, the market is quite shrunk for any fighter let alone J10. The fighter is in 40+ mln range and the enite package will make it rather expensive for many operators.

Nigeria can be a potential customer but at the current oil prices they will now need a decade to recover at least.

So, yes, the geopolitics are the key here for fighter export rather than fighter or engine issue as was your contention.

If you recall your gov put SL under enormous pressure to not buy JF. This does not mean that JF is not capable fighter or not suited to SLAF but rather geopolitics had a winning day then.

What kind of recommendation could you provide for to boost the export of J10 apart from the engine rub that you have highlighted throughout?

What should be creative strategies?
Which market do you see for J10 class fighter?
Thailand is a customer down the road, do you think?

Many thanks for your sincere input and suggestions. We all look forward to it.

Regards,

SPF

 

[Shabi1]

You will Get TWO opinions

Pakistanis will say financial and technical issues were involved

Indians would say -- we lobbied with Russia to stop the sale of AL 31

J 10 is a far more capable plane than JF 17 -- We know that

J 10 was a threat ; JF 17 is not a threat to India

J-10 suffers something similar to as what happened with the FBC-1/JH-7. Stagnant or too slow production rate and a big domestic requirement which would mean delays for any export client. JH-7 was marketed to Iran and Pakistan but with a production rate of just 6 aircraft per year the waiting period was too long.

J-10A variant entered full serial production but since its technology level was almost same as JF-17 Block 1 its purchase was not justifiable. It only offered range and payload advantage. And with availability of superior F-16 upgrades it wasnt a worthwhile aircraft.

J-10B or FC-20 was supposed to be the real anticipated contender for PAF as it would have rivaled the F-16 Block-60 specs. But it had a PESA radar and suffered setbacks resulting in China never putting it in full rate serial production. Only small numbers produced and production kept low in favor of a more improved variant.

J-10C is the latest variant and has an advanced AESA radar along with several improvements. This variant is expected to soon enter full scale production and is a serious contender for renewed interests by PAF.

My guess is till there is an actual deal and arrival date for India's Rafaels, PAF will continue to evaluate but will delay a new platform purchase. Till then only new JF-17s and upgraded F-16s will be inducted.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

Deino,

My sense is that there are two factors of no export of J10 yet:

1) =

China needed to replace its aging fleet faster than it could manage, hence, all the energies went to production of J10A and parallel improvements into B/C. A lot of subsystems from 5 gen got there way into this fighter.

PAF was supposed to be the first launch customer..but their budget would not allow them to acquire this fighter combined with JF17 performing beyond the PAF expectations. Also PAF has to service loans and interests on their existing committments. Even with soft loans from China, they just cant afford the fighter quite yet.

Furthermore, there is no engine issue for export. Russia will gain much more than just engine price..its the overhaul, spares and other services where they can/will earn money, plus influence.

2)=

CAC has its hands full with J20, J10C for now...so export is not really a priority at all...also, if I am not mistaken CAC is also working on a single engine stealth fighter...might just be evolution of J10 or compression of J20. Sub systems will be recycled.

Since J31 is not going to find its way into PLAAF/PLAN... I see CAC to be busy for some years to come.

Iran was/is interested in J10 but earlier due to sanctions no sale could be made. But now the field is opening up...Russia would like to sell them SUs...so joint Sino-Russian package of SU and J10 will make sense. This is rather realistic prospect becuase both Russia and China want Iran to be part of their geopolitical orbit. Therefore, the porbability is rather high for this to materialise.


IMHO export is just a plus for China at this stage of modernisation. The PLAAF still needs to replace a lot of fighters and fighter-bombers. You know the numbers and regiments far better than I do.

And of course there is always the WS10B and follow-ons there as well.

So all in all, I see Iran to be the first launch customer of J10 in the near future. PAF is out IMO. They might be working with CAC on a stealth single engined fighter for all I can see.

.



Dear Indian,

It is only assumption on your good part to say that JF is not a threat.
Anyhow, it would be nice if you could not overestimate your great capabilities for once.

Regarding, J10 export potential engine is non issue really...and China does not need export order for some time to come to keep its industry running at full speed.

At this stage of development and potential market most of the operators already are in the western camp and will remain so for sometime to come. So, the market is quite shrunk for any fighter let alone J10. The fighter is in 40+ mln range and the enite package will make it rather expensive for many operators.

Nigeria can be a potential customer but at the current oil prices they will now need a decade to recover at least.

So, yes, the geopolitics are the key here for fighter export rather than fighter or engine issue as was your contention.

If you recall your gov put SL under enormous pressure to not buy JF. This does not mean that JF is not capable fighter or not suited to SLAF but rather geopolitics had a winning day then.

What kind of recommendation could you provide for to boost the export of J10 apart from the engine rub that you have highlighted throughout?

What should be creative strategies?
Which market do you see for J10 class fighter?
Thailand is a customer down the road, do you think?

Many thanks for your sincere input and suggestions. We all look forward to it.

Regards,

SPF

Many thanks for Tagging me but I shall pass this question

I dont want any bitterness to creep in between us

However I will say this again ; we do nt see JF 17 as a threat
but yes J 10 with PAF was a threat and we did what we had to do to prevent that threat

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

Many thanks for Tagging me but I shall pass this question

I dont want any bitterness to creep in between us

However I will say this again ; we do nt see JF 17 as a threat
but yes J 10 with PAF was a threat and we did what we had to do to prevent that threat

Dear indian,

Firsly, thank you for your kind intention of positive discourse.

You have all the right to entertaint your views and opinions regarding JF.

All the best with your development and progress.

Regards,

SPF

 

[Deino]

Hey ... my wish became true ! This discussion is now much more civilised !

Thanks guys.

Deino

 

[IblinI]

Many thanks for Tagging me but I shall pass this question

I dont want any bitterness to creep in between us

However I will say this again ; we do nt see JF 17 as a threat
but yes J 10 with PAF was a threat and we did what we had to do to prevent that threat

says you or ministry of defence?

 

[yantong1980]

Many thanks for Tagging me but I shall pass this question

I dont want any bitterness to creep in between us

However I will say this again ; we do nt see JF 17 as a threat
but yes J 10 with PAF was a threat and we did what we had to do to prevent that threat

We, we, and we...who is this guy think he is? Indian gov't spokeperson?

 

[Kaniska]

We, we, and we...who is this guy think he is? Indian gov't spokeperson?

Come on guys...Stephen is just in a discussion mode with all of you...Why are you getting personal and attacking him?...He may be presenting some facts as We refer to India...But is it not the case with every posters? So when all of you present some facts, you are not even spokesman of the Gov too...

This is a healthy discussion for this topic. So you can keep it healthy rather than getting personal just because he is an Indian.

 

[wiseone2]

a. Because the production capacity can hardly keep up with China's own needs.
b. The aircraft is still under improvement
c. It has been offered to some countries apart form Pakistan.

One possibility it is a crappy aircraft
Second china does not want to share its secrets with anyone. That includes Pakistan.
third the engine is not reliable
fourth china has not mastered the customization of fighter aircraft for individual countries

 

[Brainsucker]

The reason why PAF not buying J-10? What if it share the spot with F-16 in mission profile? Just like J-31 and J-20, J-10 share the mission role with F-16. Both of them are medium fighter. So because PAF has already has medium fighter in their inventory, they don't buy J-10. They prefer jet-fighter with different role. Like JF-17 that fill their light fighter role. And they seek a heavy fighter like Flanker.

I won't suggest that J-10 is inferior to F-16. Because I don't know about it. But to keep both fighters will cause unnecessary logistical nightmare for PAF. I predict if China has a newer heavy fighter that is not a Flanker, PAF will happily buy them from China. As China can't sell their Flanker.without seeing the wrath of Kremlin.

One possibility it is a crappy aircraft
Second china does not want to share its secrets with anyone. That includes Pakistan.
third the engine is not reliable
fourth china has not mastered the customization of fighter aircraft for individual countries

1.How do you know that J-10 is crappy? please explain
2. They offer many of their best (Export Version) weapon to Pakistan.
3. The engine, AL-31 is good enough so far. Even Flanker, F-16 and F-15 have the history of falling down in the past. Don't you remember that SU-31 MKI also has the history of falling down?
4. Fighter Aircraft is different to Warship. To customize it, you need to re-develop it from the design board. For example, to change the system in J-10 (from J-10A to J10B), they require long process. From redesign, making new prototype, etc. The question is, can the individual countries pay for that development fee? Should China pay for that fee for the customer? why should them? China is not a Santa Claus. They sell to get profit. Even for Su-30 MKI, it's India who pay the development fee, not Russia.

 

[wiseone2]

The reason why PAF not buying J-10? What if it share the spot with F-16 in mission profile? Just like J-31 and J-20, J-10 share the mission role with F-16. Both of them are medium fighter. So because PAF has already has medium fighter in their inventory, they don't buy J-10. They prefer jet-fighter with different role. Like JF-17 that fill their light fighter role. And they seek a heavy fighter like Flanker.

I won't suggest that J-10 is inferior to F-16. Because I don't know about it. But to keep both fighters will cause unnecessary logistical nightmare for PAF. I predict if China has a newer heavy fighter that is not a Flanker, PAF will happily buy them from China. As China can't sell their Flanker.without seeing the wrath of Kremlin.



1.How do you know that J-10 is crappy? please explain
2. They offer many of their best (Export Version) weapon to Pakistan.
3. The engine, AL-31 is good enough so far. Even Flanker, F-16 and F-15 have the history of falling down in the past. Don't you remember that SU-31 MKI also has the history of falling down?
4. Fighter Aircraft is different to Warship. To customize it, you need to re-develop it from the design board. For example, to change the system in J-10 (from J-10A to J10B), they require long process. From redesign, making new prototype, etc. The question is, can the individual countries pay for that development fee? Should China pay for that fee for the customer? why should them? China is not a Santa Claus. They sell to get profit. Even for Su-30 MKI, it's India who pay the development fee, not Russia.

1. I do not know it is crappy for a fact. Just an inference based on the state of the Chinese aircraft program. As I said it is a possibility

2. Pakistan is important to China. Not as important as Taiwan, fighting America. You sell it to Pakistan. The Americans will steal the secrets for good.

3. The JF-17 is powered by RD-93. The AL-31 is Russian engine. Any export would require Russian approval.

4. It is harder to customize aircraft than warships. The F-16 has been customized. Israel has F-16I. The F-16 has different Blocks for different levels of electronic warfare and combat capability. America has been in the fighter aircraft business a little longer.

 

[Sinnerman108]

One possibility it is a crappy aircraft
Second china does not want to share its secrets with anyone. That includes Pakistan.
third the engine is not reliable
fourth china has not mastered the customization of fighter aircraft for individual countries

If that puts mother india to ease, then that it is.

Is there any other way we can pleasure and comfort mother india ?

 

[Ultima Thule]

1. I do not know it is crappy for a fact. Just an inference based on the state of the Chinese aircraft program. As I said it is a possibility

2. Pakistan is important to China. Not as important as Taiwan, fighting America. You sell it to Pakistan. The Americans will steal the secrets for good.

3. The JF-17 is powered by RD-93. The AL-31 is Russian engine. Any export would require Russian approval.

4. It is harder to customize aircraft than warships. The F-16 has been customized. Israel has F-16I. The F-16 has different Blocks for different levels of electronic warfare and combat capability. America has been in the fighter aircraft business a little longer.

RD-93 is also russian Mr, and the question ramains same, HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT J -10 IS CRAPY? in your wet dreams wishful thinking and your false assumptions their no string attached with AL-31 and chinese has a alternate engine "WS-10"

 

[wiseone2]

RD-93 is also russian Mr, and the question ramains same, HOW DO YOU KNOW THAT J -10 IS CRAPY? in your wet dreams wishful thinking and your false assumptions their no string attached with AL-31 and chinese has a alternate engine "WS-10"

the aircraft is crappy

the aircraft is good. they do not want to share it anyone. perfectly logical. USA does not share the f-22 with anyone.

if the aircraft is powered with AL-31 Russians would have a veto on exports

If that puts mother india to ease, then that it is.

Is there any other way we can pleasure and comfort mother india ?

did i mention India anywhere ?? Deal with the facts

 

[Ultima Thule]

if the aircraft is powered with AL-31 Russians would have a veto on exports

But they have alternate engine "WS-10" which is used in J-11b-bh and J-15, as for your information that China offered J-10 to Pakistan, not pakistan wanted to insist China to export it to pakistan