Why China will not overtake US

[tower9]

Your citizens are running to US the first chance they get and here you are boosting about nonsensical things.

That was probably the case for a substantial amount of the Chinese elite maybe between 2005 to 2016.

Not really the case anymore. The supply of rich Chinese buying up homes has dried up.

 

[Khan_21]

As I said, you can’t deal with facts because you’re out of your depth.

To deal with facts you have to come out of the regimes propaganda. A country whos press , freedom of speech and human rights are equivalent to North korea will not exactly be factual. Every single chinese poster I have seen here is somehow trying to propagate and defend the CCP. What are you guys afraid of?

That was probably the case for a substantial amount of the Chinese elite maybe between 2005 to 2016.

Not really the case anymore. The supply of rich Chinese buying up homes has dried up.

350000 chinese students got their visas last year to study in US. I am not even counting the millionaires and billionaires who want to migrate

 

[Han Patriot]

Consumption categories? China has 1.5 Billion people it has to consume more than US which has 330 Million. If you rank things by per capita terms China has no chance. You have to remember China is still a developing country with living standards comparable to Malaysia or Turkey not US or Europe .

China has not passed the US in anything . Your living standards are still 40-50 years behind . Check your HDI . Social Progress and Indicators .





Economy is measured by Nominal around the world . Even if you take PPP :

US 68-70K
China 18-20K

Anything per capita and China loses . The only chance it gets to be ahead of US is when counting numbers as a whole . If you have 1.5 Billion people you are going to be ahead in a few things. Come back at me When China has cities like NYC , Chicago , Boston , LA or Places like Silicon Valley . 350000 Chinese students are studying in the best universities of the world which happen to be in US . Your own people are not agreeing with you.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...uctivity-is-highest-infographic/#bceea10ea447

US labour productivity is near top of the world . Where does China rank ?



View attachment 621664

4 out of the top 10 cities with the Highest Salaries are in US.



https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

Good read into why China cant innovate .

Do you know 50% of US ppl don't even have 500$ in savings? Salary is paid in dollars s not yuan, after taxes and expenses, you really think you save much? The Rmb is undervalued for a reason, and yes Trump was right, we are currency manipulators. Lol

 

[tower9]

To deal with facts you have to come out of the regimes propaganda. A country whos press , freedom of speech and human rights are equivalent to North korea will not exactly be factual. Every single chinese poster I have seen here is somehow trying to propagate and defend the CCP. What are you guys afraid of?



350000 chinese students got their visas last year to study in US. I am not even counting the millionaires and billionaires who want to migrate

Undoubtedly, it is still popular for Chinese students to study abroad. Nowadays however, a good portion, a majority if I am not mistaken, actually return to China after they graduate. After this crisis is over, I don't know if it will remain a popular thing for Chinese students to go abroad.

 

[Beidou2020]

To deal with facts you have to come out of the regimes propaganda. A country whos press , freedom of speech and human rights are equivalent to North korea will not exactly be factual. Every single chinese poster I have seen here is somehow trying to propagate and defend the CCP. What are you guys afraid of?

Read post #38 again. Read the whole list, line by line. Let it swirl in your head. Then you will realise why US elites are petrified of China’s rise. This list captures China’s power like no other.

 

[tower9]

Do you know 50% of US ppl don't even have 500$ in savings? Salary is paid in dollars s not yuan, after taxes and expenses, you really think you save much? The Rmb is undervalued for a reason, and yes Trump was right, we are currency manipulators. Lol

I've read articles bringing up that statistic. I don't know how accurate it is. I have heard that it is sourced from a statistic that stated that half of American savings accounts had less than $500 in it, but that is meaningless as many people open multiple bank accounts even though they really only use a couple of them.

Most Americans have more than $500 to spend. But you are right that most Americans are horrible at saving money. That's why this Shelter in Place lasting for over a month is going to hit the middle class and the poor very hard.

 

[fitpOsitive]

An aging China will never overtake the US economy





Photo: AFP/Nicolas Asfouri

YI FUXIAN
Yi Fuxian is a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest.

193SHARES
In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. Many economists believe it is just a matter of time before China dethrones the United States as the world’s biggest economy – some have argued that it could happen before 2030.

They have cited the history of other Asian economies which surged ahead as evidence. The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in 1986.

In the following two decades, those three Asian economies achieved annual growth rates of between 7% and 8%. As such, well-respected economists have argued that China is poised to go through a similar trajectory.

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I beg to differ, however. These optimistic forecasts of China’s economic future neglect the country’s aging population and its drag on growth.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 56 in 2050, while America will have a median age of 44. Photo: EPA-EFE/Roman Pilipey
The younger an economy’s population structure, the stronger its vitality for economic innovation. As the median age rises and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over increases, the economic growth rate could plummet.

In 1950, the median age was 22 in Japan and 30 in the US. Japan was younger than America and had faster economic growth. However, the average total fertility rate from 1951-2017 was 1.77 births per woman in Japan and 2.33 births in the US, which led to faster population aging in Japan.

As a result, Japan’s GDP growth has been lower than America’s since 1992 (excepting 2010). The size of Japan's nominal GDP rose from 8% of the US’ GDP in 1960 to 71% in 1995, and then fell to 24% in 2018.

Taiwan and South Korea had similar experiences. In 1960, the median age was 20 in South Korea and 17 in Taiwan, versus 30 in the US. However, in 2018, they were four and three years older than the US’ respectively. In the meantime, the nominal GDP of Taiwan and South Korea first increased in comparison with the US, then faltered, and may gradually decrease in the future.

Thanks to population aging, the size of Japan's nominal GDP dropped from 71% of that of US in 1995 to 24% in 2018. Photo: AFP/Kazuhiro Nogi
In 1980, China’s median age was 22, eight years younger than the US’. From 1980 to 2011, China's annual GDP growth averaged 10%, faster than the US’. The size of China's nominal GDP surged from 7% of US GDP in 1980 to 49% in 2011.

However, China's GDP growth slowed from 9.5% in 2011 to 6.6% in 2018. The slowdown can be blamed on a variety of factors. The first and probably the most important factor is that China is getting older, partly thanks to Beijing’s ruthless one-child policy. In 2014, China’s median age had increased to 38, surpassing that of America.

The cultural traditions of mainland China are similar to those of Taiwan and South Korea. Average fertility rates from 2001 to 2018 were 1.14 in Taiwan and 1.18 in South Korea. If China is fortunate enough to stabilize its total fertility rate at 1.2, the total population will fall from 1.28 billion in 2018 to 1.08 billion in 2050.

The US population, on the other hand, is estimated to increase from 328 million in 2018 to 370 million in 2050, according to the UN World Population Prospects.

China’s working-age population began to shrink in 2017, while the US working-age population will likely peak in around 2050. Photo: EPA-EFE/CJ Gunther
China is now facing an acute aging problem. The proportion of its population aged over 65 will rise from 12% in 2018 to 22% in 2033, and 33% by 2050. In comparison, the proportion in the US will only be 23% in 2050.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 47 by 2033 and 56 in 2050. In the US, the median age will be 41 in 2033 and 44 in 2050. China’s working-age population aged 20-64 began to shrink in 2017, while the US working-age population will not peak until 2050.

From the above, we can conclude that China's GDP growth may start to fall below the US’ in around 2033, when its proportion of elderly people begins to exceed that of the US.

At that point the size of the Chinese economy should come closest to America, at 84% of US GDP.

China is simply getting old too fast for its economy to catch up with the US

Actually nature of every group of people matters. This applies to families to nations. Mentality matters.
China doesn't have imperial nature. China was a trader, will be a trader. USA was a Don, will remain a Don till its death.

 

[tower9]

Actually nature of every group of people matters. This applies to families to nations. Mentality matters.
China doesn't have imperial nature. China was a trader, will be a trader. USA was a Don, will remain a Don till its death.

Actually, China's nature is that of an imperial patriarch. If you dig back into China's many thousands of years of history, it has always placed itself in the middle of a major constellation where other nations sent tribute. However, as long as other nations recognized its superiority, China was generous.

China as a trader is only a recent phenomenon. If China was a trade focused nation, it would've revolutionized the world back in the 8th century instead of the Europeans doing that in the 16th and 17th century. Everyone would be speaking Chinese by now and using a Chinese cultural framework. Xi'an would probably be the center of the world.

 

[rott]

This thread is like, "My friend is richer and more powerful than you, but I can't talk about myself."

 

[Beidou2020]

This thread is like, "My friend is richer and more powerful than you, but I can't talk about myself."

OP tried to talk how mighty the US is compared to China. Post #38 destroyed his ego and that of the American fanboys.

 

[master_13]

Consumption categories? China has 1.5 Billion people it has to consume more than US which has 330 Million. If you rank things by per capita terms China has no chance. You have to remember China is still a developing country with living standards comparable to Malaysia or Turkey not US or Europe .

China has not passed the US in anything . Your living standards are still 40-50 years behind . Check your HDI . Social Progress and Indicators .





Economy is measured by Nominal around the world . Even if you take PPP :

US 68-70K
China 18-20K

Anything per capita and China loses . The only chance it gets to be ahead of US is when counting numbers as a whole . If you have 1.5 Billion people you are going to be ahead in a few things. Come back at me When China has cities like NYC , Chicago , Boston , LA or Places like Silicon Valley . 350000 Chinese students are studying in the best universities of the world which happen to be in US . Your own people are not agreeing with you.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...uctivity-is-highest-infographic/#bceea10ea447

US labour productivity is near top of the world . Where does China rank ?



View attachment 621664

4 out of the top 10 cities with the Highest Salaries are in US.



https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

Good read into why China cant innovate .

yes, per capita china will be poorer than the US. But I thought you are comparing china as a nation vs. US? no? By per capita, many countries are even richer than the US.

China can't innovate? Reuter just reported today china for the first time overtook US in high end global patents, US has retained the top spot since 1978 when global patent system first started, and US just got surpassed by china in 2019, followed by Japan and Germany. The number was released according to WIPO, a UN patent office, which has highest global patent application standard in the world.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/firs...d=3321ba12-1d1f-4825-b951-3ff6338c364b&bcmt=1

Rather than spewing garbage come up with facts.

I just showed you the fact with global patent numbers, you are the one keep repeating negative chinese bashing rhetoric like a parrot.

forget virus , chinses system will not let china get beyond a certain point of progress . they can be manufacturing hubs depending on tech from other countries .

as oppose to India who can't innovate on anything? WIPO, a UN patent office just released China surpassed US for the first time in global patents, mainly in 5G, AI. WIPO has the highest standard when it comes to global patent applications and US retained the top spot since its founding, and china just overtook US.

To deal with facts you have to come out of the regimes propaganda. A country whos press , freedom of speech and human rights are equivalent to North korea will not exactly be factual. Every single chinese poster I have seen here is somehow trying to propagate and defend the CCP. What are you guys afraid of?



350000 chinese students got their visas last year to study in US. I am not even counting the millionaires and billionaires who want to migrate

350,000 chinese students come to the US alone, 150M chinese traveled outside of china as tourists just in 2018 alone to see the world for themselves(a number backed up by counter-party countries), somehow you think chinese are brainwashed by CCP? Have you ever thought about why chinese are so defensive sometimes? Most chinese grew up in china just like other people else in the world, and on top of that, most chinese today experienced the biggest wealth improvement the world has ever seen. Many chinese who were starving a generation ago, now can get educated and go to chinese universities (subsidized by chinese government) or foreign universities, 150M are also now traveling around the world to see the world for themselves. Yet when they go to US, American media keep saying chinese government is evil, government oppresses chinese citizens, chinese citizens are being enslaved by CCP, chinese are being arrested and killed by CCP at will, do you think chinese who see all these lies, which completely contradict their own experience growing up, will believe it? of course they will defend against these lies, even if many of them are not CCP fans. Vast majority of chinese experienced quantum economic improvement compared to their parent generation and able to travel around the world themselves, yet west media keep spewing lies that chinese citizens are being enslaved and chinese are somehow living under the shackle of CCP, most chinese are completely disgusted by these lies and say "wait, what the f are these media talking about"