Why China will not overtake US

[Yaseen1]

u.s end is near and they will not remain top power for long,corona pandemic has unveiled poor living standard and lack of facilities in u.s

 

[8888888888888]

Largest economies by PPP GDP in 2020
according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

 

[Han Patriot]

Lol yeah? try living in some of the busiest cities of China, which have higher cost of living than American cities.

The most expensive city is Shanghai, even then its cheaper than US. Its only the property price taht is expensive. Even then people don't buy property in Shanghai, they buy nearby cities in their home provinces.

 

[XTQ1999]

The most expensive city is Shanghai, even then its cheaper than US. Its only the property price taht is expensive. Even then people don't buy property in Shanghai, they buy nearby cities in their home provinces.

Lol "only property prices", property is one of essential costs of living

 

[Han Patriot]

Lol "only property prices", property is one of essential costs of living

The majority of ppl do not buy property in Shnaghai. They buy it in their home provinces, average price is 100k - 200k usd$. Else they go back and stay in their home villages. Property is not an 'essential cost', people rent. Home ownership is China is higher than your typical American Jose.

 

[zectech]

Largest economies by PPP GDP in 2020
according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

And China devalues their currency to make Chinese a manufacturing hub. And Chinese take lower pay (decreasing the size of the consumer economy) so that Chinese goods are cheap for export.

If China ever goes closed economy of first dumping dollars and calling back Western investments, converting these into gold/silver/metals stockpile and Chinese investments. Nationalizes Western foreign owned businesses in China. Revalues Yuan. Doubles Chinese minimum wage or more. And creates Chinese vibrant Consumer economy. Then China is going to have a GDP of 40 trillion USD or more.

 

[XTQ1999]

The majority of ppl do not buy property in Shnaghai. They buy it in their home provinces, average price is 100k - 200k usd$. Else they go back and stay in their home villages. Property is not an 'essential cost', people rent. Home ownership is China is higher than your typical American Jose.

The majority of people don't buy property in Shanghai because they can't thats the whole point, high property cost = high rent cost

 

[Titanium100]

When you consider economy you take into account the nominal gdp not ppp. Even by PPP standards America is 5 times more richer than an average chinese.

Yes with per capita but not PPP GDP it's more relevant than nominal

 

[Han Patriot]

The majority of people don't buy property in Shanghai because they can't thats the whole point, high property cost = high rent cost

Of course they can't afford, but that doesn't mean they don't own homes else where. The rents are high but not as high as US rents in NY or LA. I know coz i live in Shnaghai and used to live in the US.

Some are rented to expats at exorbitant prices. But on average an aprtmnet in Shnaghai 100 metersq is around 1k USD$

 

[GHALIB]

An aging China will never overtake the US economy





Photo: AFP/Nicolas Asfouri

YI FUXIAN
Yi Fuxian is a senior scientist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and author of Big Country with an Empty Nest.

193SHARES
In 2010, China replaced Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. Many economists believe it is just a matter of time before China dethrones the United States as the world’s biggest economy – some have argued that it could happen before 2030.

They have cited the history of other Asian economies which surged ahead as evidence. The nominal per capita gross domestic product of China was just a sixth of America’s in 2018 – a level similar to Japan in 1960, Taiwan in 1978 and South Korea in 1986.

In the following two decades, those three Asian economies achieved annual growth rates of between 7% and 8%. As such, well-respected economists have argued that China is poised to go through a similar trajectory.

People also read:

• Why don’t Chinese women want more babies? It’s not just about money
• How a 3am call and a secret inspire film remembering China’s abandoned children
• China should ease pain from one-child policy repercussions

I beg to differ, however. These optimistic forecasts of China’s economic future neglect the country’s aging population and its drag on growth.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 56 in 2050, while America will have a median age of 44. Photo: EPA-EFE/Roman Pilipey
The younger an economy’s population structure, the stronger its vitality for economic innovation. As the median age rises and the proportion of the population aged 65 and over increases, the economic growth rate could plummet.

In 1950, the median age was 22 in Japan and 30 in the US. Japan was younger than America and had faster economic growth. However, the average total fertility rate from 1951-2017 was 1.77 births per woman in Japan and 2.33 births in the US, which led to faster population aging in Japan.

As a result, Japan’s GDP growth has been lower than America’s since 1992 (excepting 2010). The size of Japan's nominal GDP rose from 8% of the US’ GDP in 1960 to 71% in 1995, and then fell to 24% in 2018.

Taiwan and South Korea had similar experiences. In 1960, the median age was 20 in South Korea and 17 in Taiwan, versus 30 in the US. However, in 2018, they were four and three years older than the US’ respectively. In the meantime, the nominal GDP of Taiwan and South Korea first increased in comparison with the US, then faltered, and may gradually decrease in the future.

Thanks to population aging, the size of Japan's nominal GDP dropped from 71% of that of US in 1995 to 24% in 2018. Photo: AFP/Kazuhiro Nogi
In 1980, China’s median age was 22, eight years younger than the US’. From 1980 to 2011, China's annual GDP growth averaged 10%, faster than the US’. The size of China's nominal GDP surged from 7% of US GDP in 1980 to 49% in 2011.

However, China's GDP growth slowed from 9.5% in 2011 to 6.6% in 2018. The slowdown can be blamed on a variety of factors. The first and probably the most important factor is that China is getting older, partly thanks to Beijing’s ruthless one-child policy. In 2014, China’s median age had increased to 38, surpassing that of America.

The cultural traditions of mainland China are similar to those of Taiwan and South Korea. Average fertility rates from 2001 to 2018 were 1.14 in Taiwan and 1.18 in South Korea. If China is fortunate enough to stabilize its total fertility rate at 1.2, the total population will fall from 1.28 billion in 2018 to 1.08 billion in 2050.

The US population, on the other hand, is estimated to increase from 328 million in 2018 to 370 million in 2050, according to the UN World Population Prospects.

China’s working-age population began to shrink in 2017, while the US working-age population will likely peak in around 2050. Photo: EPA-EFE/CJ Gunther
China is now facing an acute aging problem. The proportion of its population aged over 65 will rise from 12% in 2018 to 22% in 2033, and 33% by 2050. In comparison, the proportion in the US will only be 23% in 2050.

China’s median age is forecast to increase to 47 by 2033 and 56 in 2050. In the US, the median age will be 41 in 2033 and 44 in 2050. China’s working-age population aged 20-64 began to shrink in 2017, while the US working-age population will not peak until 2050.

From the above, we can conclude that China's GDP growth may start to fall below the US’ in around 2033, when its proportion of elderly people begins to exceed that of the US.

At that point the size of the Chinese economy should come closest to America, at 84% of US GDP.

China is simply getting old too fast for its economy to catch up with the US

democracy and constant innovation is keyword for development , china lacks it .

 

[Figaro]

This virus alone probably set back China overtaking the US at least a couple years ... probably longer.

 

[Beidou2020]

The lies, misinformation and outright propaganda in the OP have been completely debunked in previous discussions on this forum. I’ll be just wasting my time going over it again in detail.

Bottom line is China has already surpassed the US in many categories that a search on this forum can find all the threads and articles.

And no, US is not going to remain the largest economy in nominal GDP. China already has a larger economy in PPP terms that the US economy is not even close to China. In nearly every production category China is number 1. Now in most consumption categories, China is number 1 or very close to number 1.

 

[zectech]

The lies, misinformation and outright propaganda in the OP have been completely debunked in previous discussions on this forum. I’ll be just wasting my time going over it again in detail.

Bottom line is China has already surpassed the US in many categories that a search on this forum can find all the threads and articles.

And no, US is not going to remain the largest economy in nominal GDP. China already has a larger economy in PPP terms that the US economy is not even close to China. In nearly every production category China is number 1. Now in most consumption categories, China is number 1 or very close to number 1.

USA is numba one in printing money:

USA is numba one in bombing brown people

USA is numba one in Washington sponsered ponzi schemes

USA is numba one in CIA crypto-currencies

USA is numba one in shorting FOREX currencies to make the dollar look valuable.

USA is numba one in many areas to fudge US stats to make USA look numba one:

USA is numba one is developing biological weapons

 

[Khan_21]

The lies, misinformation and outright propaganda in the OP have been completely debunked in previous discussions on this forum. I’ll be just wasting my time going over it again in detail.

Bottom line is China has already surpassed the US in many categories that a search on this forum can find all the threads and articles.

And no, US is not going to remain the largest economy in nominal GDP. China already has a larger economy in PPP terms that the US economy is not even close to China. In nearly every production category China is number 1. Now in most consumption categories, China is number 1 or very close to number 1.

Consumption categories? China has 1.5 Billion people it has to consume more than US which has 330 Million. If you rank things by per capita terms China has no chance. You have to remember China is still a developing country with living standards comparable to Malaysia or Turkey not US or Europe .

China has not passed the US in anything . Your living standards are still 40-50 years behind . Check your HDI . Social Progress and Indicators .

Largest economies by PPP GDP in 2020
according to International Monetary Fund estimates.

The lies, misinformation and outright propaganda in the OP have been completely debunked in previous discussions on this forum. I’ll be just wasting my time going over it again in detail.

Bottom line is China has already surpassed the US in many categories that a search on this forum can find all the threads and articles.

And no, US is not going to remain the largest economy in nominal GDP. China already has a larger economy in PPP terms that the US economy is not even close to China. In nearly every production category China is number 1. Now in most consumption categories, China is number 1 or very close to number 1.

Economy is measured by Nominal around the world . Even if you take PPP :

US 68-70K
China 18-20K

Anything per capita and China loses . The only chance it gets to be ahead of US is when counting numbers as a whole . If you have 1.5 Billion people you are going to be ahead in a few things. Come back at me When China has cities like NYC , Chicago , Boston , LA or Places like Silicon Valley . 350000 Chinese students are studying in the best universities of the world which happen to be in US . Your own people are not agreeing with you.

My friend, how much of your 22 trillion is wallstreet paper pushing economy. You can say we fudge this and that. A simple virus proves it all, which country has got the most productive power.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...uctivity-is-highest-infographic/#bceea10ea447

US labour productivity is near top of the world . Where does China rank ?

This I agree, the US living standards is high, but jow much of this is subsidized by dollar printing? How much of this is financed by debt? This viral crisis will open a can of worms and show the real state of the US economy. The whole China just went through a 2 month lockdown, people are still surviving. US? A worker in my industry goes back to bunker down in his mortgage free village consuming his village food. He has 200k USD$ in savings. He looks like a beggar btw, the average Chinese on my shipyard has got 50k usd$ in pure cash savings. Unless they buy property in cities, they are pretty much debt free.

I want to explain to you that every chink has got a home or land in his village, this is something no country ever achieved. They can bunker down for a year no problem, their electric and water is not expensive and they can survive with less. Can the average beef chomping American do that? They would overthrow the federal givermnet with their guns before you take away their beef eating rights.

4 out of the top 10 cities with the Highest Salaries are in US.

democracy and constant innovation is keyword for development , china lacks it .

https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

Good read into why China cant innovate .

 

[Ultima Thule]

Consumption categories? China has 1.5 Billion people it has to consume more than US which has 330 Million. If you rank things by per capita terms China has no chance. You have to remember China is still a developing country with living standards comparable to Malaysia or Turkey not US or Europe .

China has not passed the US in anything . Your living standards are still 40-50 years behind . Check your HDI . Social Progress and Indicators .





Economy is measured by Nominal around the world . Even if you take PPP :

US 68-70K
China 18-20K

Anything per capita and China loses . The only chance it gets to be ahead of US is when counting numbers as a whole . If you have 1.5 Billion people you are going to be ahead in a few things. Come back at me When China has cities like NYC , Chicago , Boston , LA or Places like Silicon Valley . 350000 Chinese students are studying in the best universities of the world which happen to be in US . Your own people are not agreeing with you.



https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallm...uctivity-is-highest-infographic/#bceea10ea447

US labour productivity is near top of the world . Where does China rank ?



View attachment 621664

4 out of the top 10 cities with the Highest Salaries are in US.



https://hbr.org/2014/03/why-china-cant-innovate

Good read into why China cant innovate .

you're stupidly has no limit, you Chinese hater