President
Xi Jinping wants to restore
China to its former glory – and that means bringing
Taiwan under the Communist Party’s control, one way or another.
That was the gist of Xi’s direction-setting New Year’s speech on Jan. 2, when he addressed a packed house at the Great Hall of the People in
Beijing. Xi’s speech marked 40 years since China stopped regular artillery bombardment of Taiwan-controlled islands off the Chinese coast. While he spoke at length about peace, he also made it clear that he’s running out of patience for polite politics.
“We are willing to create a vast space for peaceful unification, but we will never leave any room for any sort of Taiwan independence or separatist activities,” Xi said from his seat at the front of the auditorium. He then directly addressed the scope of action China may use to enforce this: “We do not promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option to use all necessary measures.”
Xi’s comments sparked a rebuke from Taiwan’s president,
Tsai Ing-wen. “China must face the fact of the existence of Taiwan, and not deny the system of a democratic county that has been commonly built up by the Taiwanese people,” she said in a speech the next day.
Tsai’s pro-independence party, the Democratic Progressive Party, replaced the
China-friendly Kuomintang party in 2016, making it less likely than ever that Taipei will accept a peaceful “reunification” with the Communist-governed mainland. If anything, the back-and-forth might cement the two sides in opposition to one another.
Xi’s comments are raising fears of a military conflict between the two sides, even if it’s not China’s preferred option. Taiwan announced a new round of military drills aimed at fending off invasion after Xi’s remarks, and President Tsai has asked international leaders to pledge their help in the event of a crisis.
Despite the escalating rhetoric, experts tell Global News an imminent military conflict is unlikely.
While
Ian Easton, a research fellow at the Project 2049 Institute, says “this is a very dangerous flashpoint,” he points out that China would fail if it tried to invade Taiwan in 2019. However, China’s chances for victory will be much greater in five-to-10 years, once it’s finished
building up its military.
“The farther forward you project, the more likely it becomes that there will be a military crisis in the Taiwan Strait,” said Easton, author of the book
The Chinese Invasion Threat: Taiwan’s Defense and American Strategy in Asia. “They’re building up all the capabilities that they would need to launch a potential invasion of Taiwan at some point in the next decade.”
Here’s why China is so focused on controlling Taiwan, and why it probably can’t take over the island by force – at least for now.
The enemy next door
China has long viewed Taiwan as a rogue province run by nationalists who never accepted losing the Chinese Civil War in 1949, when Mao Zedong’s Communists rose to power. Taiwan views itself as a free and democratic country that stands apart from the controlling Communist Party. However, it can’t officially declare it’s full independence from China, lest it face some form of attack.
Many western nations treated Taiwan as the “true” China until 40 years ago, when the Communist government in Beijing started reaching out to the world. That same year, in 1979, the U.S. shifted diplomatic relations to Beijing while promising to continue selling weapons to Taiwan for its defence.
President Xi’s speech on Jan. 2 marked that anniversary.
Taiwan – which officially calls itself the Republic of China – occupies a large island separated from mainland China by the
Taiwan Strait, a 160-kilometre-wide stretch of water off China’s east coast. The self-governed island of approximately
23.6 million people has strong economy with a gross domestic product of approximately US
$572 billion. It’s a booming hub for technology, shipping and banking, and it occupies a key strategic position between China and the Pacific Ocean.
more at
https://globalnews.ca/news/4837941/china-taiwan-invasion-attack/
