Why China isn’t ready to invade Taiwan – yet

[Han Patriot]

Bend over, Taiwan. Here comes Xi Jin's pee-pee. Tiny, painless--but full of Commie HIV.

You do know Original Turks are related to Chinese too right? =)

 

[nang2]

better not to hurt taiwan.

Like you know who is really being hurt.

The mainland China has been ready to take on Taiwan with force for a long time. The only reason why it is delayed is because it wants to get the best deal. In another word, accomplish the goal with minimum price.

 

[jhungary]

Like you know who is really being hurt.

The mainland China has been ready to take on Taiwan with force for a long time. The only reason why it is delayed is because it wants to get the best deal. In another word, accomplish the goal with minimum price.

You probably can't find "the best deal" if you were to use troop on Taiwan. Because to use troop and not to use troop, that is a dilemma.

If China have to use troop to recover Taiwan, the Chinese are doing it because diplomatic measure failed, which mean Taiwanese are willing to fight for its independence or whatever (Most def not fighting for status quo) which mean in this case, there will be 2 wars. One for conventional invasion, and the other for Taiwan insurgency. Both will bleed Chinese military heavily. Especially the latter case

However, the only way China can expect a Taiwan Takeover without an insurgency would be when Taiwanese willing to be defeated militarily and not pursuit one. But then it comes back to the original dilemma, if Taiwanese resist and China have to use force, it meant the Taiwanese are not willing to let go of their identity, which mean if they are willing to do it after the military defeated, you would not have to use force in the first place, they would just merge with China via political mean anyway. Otherwise, any other case that follow would see China expecting an insurgency in Taiwan after they have defeated the Taiwanese Military in a set piece.

 

[nang2]

You probably can't find "the best deal" if you were to use troop on Taiwan. Because to use troop and not to use troop, that is a dilemma.

If China have to use troop to recover Taiwan, the Chinese are doing it because diplomatic measure failed, which mean Taiwanese are willing to fight for its independence or whatever (Most def not fighting for status quo) which mean in this case, there will be 2 wars. One for conventional invasion, and the other for Taiwan insurgency. Both will bleed Chinese military heavily. Especially the latter case

However, the only way China can expect a Taiwan Takeover without an insurgency would be when Taiwanese willing to be defeated militarily and not pursuit one. But then it comes back to the original dilemma, if Taiwanese resist and China have to use force, it meant the Taiwanese are not willing to let go of their identity, which mean if they are willing to do it after the military defeated, you would not have to use force in the first place, they would just merge with China via political mean anyway. Otherwise, any other case that follow would see China expecting an insurgency in Taiwan after they have defeated the Taiwanese Military in a set piece.

True. But what can you do about it anyway? Waiting longer may find yourself running out of better options. It is a tricky business for sure. Sometimes you just have to take the plunge and do it. There is a Chinese saying that says, if I may paraphrase, how you do it is up to you, whether you will succeed is up to God.

 

[Han Patriot]

You probably can't find "the best deal" if you were to use troop on Taiwan. Because to use troop and not to use troop, that is a dilemma.

If China have to use troop to recover Taiwan, the Chinese are doing it because diplomatic measure failed, which mean Taiwanese are willing to fight for its independence or whatever (Most def not fighting for status quo) which mean in this case, there will be 2 wars. One for conventional invasion, and the other for Taiwan insurgency. Both will bleed Chinese military heavily. Especially the latter case

However, the only way China can expect a Taiwan Takeover without an insurgency would be when Taiwanese willing to be defeated militarily and not pursuit one. But then it comes back to the original dilemma, if Taiwanese resist and China have to use force, it meant the Taiwanese are not willing to let go of their identity, which mean if they are willing to do it after the military defeated, you would not have to use force in the first place, they would just merge with China via political mean anyway. Otherwise, any other case that follow would see China expecting an insurgency in Taiwan after they have defeated the Taiwanese Military in a set piece.

China will never attack Taiwan as long as they don't do something stupid. No Taiwanese is willing to die for ROC. They lost their purpose in fighting years ago. Today's Taiwanese won't and can't fight! A few of my Taiwanese friends told me most soldiers would surrender when China attacks and join the PLA.

 

[jhungary]

True. But what can you do about it anyway? Waiting longer may find yourself running out of better options. It is a tricky business for sure. Sometimes you just have to take the plunge and do it. There is a Chinese saying that says, if I may paraphrase, how you do it is up to you, whether you will succeed is up to God.

it's easy for you to say, when you are probably not the one that the government ask you to recover Taiwan.....

From my personal experience fighting against insurgency, I can tell you this, its no fun...

I don't see how China can actually use force to recover Taiwan, the more you push, the more they push back, probably better off give up the force option and try the damnest to recover Taiwan via diplomatic mean.

China will never attack Taiwan as long as they don't do something stupid. No Taiwanese is willing to die for ROC. They lost their purpose in fighting years ago. Today's Taiwanese won't and can't fight! A few of my Taiwanese friends told me most soldiers would surrender when China attacks and join the PLA.

If you ask me to fight now, I would probably tell you to go to hell. Problem is, it's a completely different scenario if you have a gun pointed at your head and having tank and invade your home, what would you do? Wave the Chinese flag and sing Kumbaya?

If you read my previous post, you would know the dilemma I talked about, if and when China decided to use force, that is the point when either or both party think "Peaceful" reunion is not possible. Then you will fight because if you do not, you will die.

Or you do expect the Chinese roll into Taiwan and people are going to wave Chinese flag and welcome them? If that is the case, they would have already done it via diplomatic mean, you wouldn't use tanks and gun if this is the case.

 

[nang2]

it's easy for you to say, when you are probably not the one that the government ask you to recover Taiwan.....

From my personal experience fighting against insurgency, I can tell you this, its no fun...

I don't see how China can actually use force to recover Taiwan, the more you push, the more they push back, probably better off give up the force option and try the damnest to recover Taiwan via diplomatic mean.

True. War is a very ugly business. But there is also cost of no action. Based on the current situation, I don't see how it can be avoided. Of course, you could say that if mainland China reforms politically, Taiwan may be willing to join. It would be also easy to say. And it is also risky. What if the reform goes haywire and a civil war is sparked? That is also no fun for Chinese but may be fun for you.

And, by the way, Taiwanese don't seem to have much of insurgency spirit. They never show it throughout the history. And, Chinese fight insurgency differently than western counterparts. Civilian casualty is more tolerated. You should see how Chinese suppressed the insurgency soon after 1949.

 

[jhungary]

True. War is a very ugly business. But there is also cost of no action. Based on the current situation, I don't see how it can be avoided. Of course, you could say that if mainland China reforms politically, Taiwan may be willing to join. It would be also easy to say. And it is also risky. What if the reform goes haywire and a civil war is sparked? That is also no fun for Chinese but may be fun for you.

If you have to use "What if" then you also need to applies to the military option. What if China try to take over Taiwan and all went to shit?

It's honestly quite stupid to use force to try to coerce someone, especially now when we see big country like US can't even make small country like Afghanistan/Taliban submit. And China is no US, and Taiwan is no Afghanistan. We are in a different timeline now, traditional warfare is a thing in the past, you want to stay in a country like Taiwan and play wrack-a-mole for 10 + years that is your problem, but in the end, "What if" aside, diplomatic means is the best way to do it. And there are no denying that.

 

[nang2]

If you have to use "What if" then you also need to applies to the military option. What if China try to take over Taiwan and all went to shit?

It's honestly quite stupid to use force to try to coerce someone, especially now when we see big country like US can't even make small country like Afghanistan/Taliban submit. And China is no US, and Taiwan is no Afghanistan. We are in a different timeline now, traditional warfare is a thing in the past, you want to stay in a country like Taiwan and play wrack-a-mole for 10 + years that is your problem, but in the end, "What if" aside, diplomatic means is the best way to do it. And there are no denying that.

Throughout human history, there were plenty examples of successful employment of forces and failures. Force usually works well in the act of self-defense. Invading Taiwan is not considered as an offense by Chinese. It is an act of self-defense. It shall help rally the support from 1.4 billion Chinese and ensure its success.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

If you have to use "What if" then you also need to applies to the military option. What if China try to take over Taiwan and all went to shit?

It's honestly quite stupid to use force to try to coerce someone, especially now when we see big country like US can't even make small country like Afghanistan/Taliban submit. And China is no US, and Taiwan is no Afghanistan. We are in a different timeline now, traditional warfare is a thing in the past, you want to stay in a country like Taiwan and play wrack-a-mole for 10 + years that is your problem, but in the end, "What if" aside, diplomatic means is the best way to do it. And there are no denying that.

Russia took back Crimea without a single casualty. What makes you think Taiwan would fight China? Taiwanese soldiers will not fight a war they have no chance of winning. They will surrender and no one will have to die.

 

[jhungary]

Throughout human history, there were plenty examples of successful employment of forces and failures. Force usually works well in the act of self-defense. Invading Taiwan is not considered as an offense by Chinese. It is an act of self-defense. It shall help rally the support from 1.4 billion Chinese and ensure its success.

dude, Taiwanese will not think that is a self Defence for China if China invade them. It's not about how you feel about a war, it's about how the other side feel about the war. If they feel you are the wrong, they will defend till they are dead. And you will have to pay for every inch of the progress.

And as I said, if you want to stay in Taiwan to play Wrack-a-mole for 10 or more years, that's your problem, but if you expect China will prevail in the end by just what you said you think, let me tell you this, in case of an actual war, you will be in for a big surprise.

Fighting a war is not exactly like you said. It's not something you can achieve when you band together, It's a very complex problem. Being overly patriotic actaully work AGAINST you at war.

 

[nang2]

dude, Taiwanese will not think that is a self Defence for China if China invade them. It's not about how you feel about a war, it's about how the other side feel about the war. If they feel you are the wrong, they will defend till they are dead. And you will have to pay for every inch of the progress.

And as I said, if you want to stay in Taiwan to play Wrack-a-mole for 10 or more years, that's your problem, but if you expect China will prevail in the end by just what you said you think, let me tell you this, in case of an actual war, you will be in for a big surprise.

Fighting a war is not exactly like you said. It's not something you can achieve when you band together, It's a very complex problem. Being overly patriotic actaully work AGAINST you at war.

True. But banding together gives you the only chance to win. Try not to band together, then you will be in an even bigger surprise.

 

[Yongpeng Sun-Tastaufen]

You need to grow a brain first, then you can talk to me.

You need to grow a brain and ask why a soldier fights? And it ain't because his government orders him to.

 

[jhungary]

You need to grow a brain and ask why a soldier fights? And it ain't because his government orders him to.

And you need to ask yourself the difference between War in Donbass and Crimea annexation.

And then you need to ask why Ukrainian Force are fighting in Donbass, against the Russian.

True. But banding together gives you the only chance to win. Try not to band together, then you will be in an even bigger surprise.

well, if you want to be this "Happy-go-lucky" I am not going to put it against you, you should actually think like that.

As I said, chances are, you aren't going to be the one standing on the frontline with a rifle, I mean you are entitle to anything you want to think, no matter how naïve I think it is, i am just going to say, I was that guy before, and being that guy is no fun. You don't have to believe me, and I sincere hope you are never going to find out for yourself.

 

[nang2]

And you need to ask yourself the difference between War in Donbass and Crimea annexation.

And then you need to ask why Ukrainian Force are fighting in Donbass, against the Russian.



well, if you want to be this "Happy-go-lucky" I am not going to put it against you, you should actually think like that.

As I said, chances are, you aren't going to be the one standing on the frontline with a rifle, I mean you are entitle to anything you want to think, no matter how naïve I think it is, i am just going to say, I was that guy before, and being that guy is no fun. You don't have to believe me, and I sincere hope you are never going to find out for yourself.

Fair enough.