Which country in South Asia will be first to become developed?

[Skull and Bones]

Sri Lanka, Bhutan will be my bet.

 

[django]

@Well.wisher I respect that you wish for peace, so do I , however we have to be hawks imo, I am totally on the same page as Moonlight on this issue, it is imperative that our policy advisers consult erudite folk like Gen Asad Durrani.Kudos

 

[HeinzG]

Hands down it is Sri Lanka

 

[That Guy]

Agree, India will be last.

Sri Lanka will be first, Bangladesh or Pakistan will be second (BD, if it losses LDC status, their exports will take a hit) and Pakistan (with hostility with India is not doing any help) Bhutan will be third, Nepal second last.

Sh*t, it didn't actually save the rest of my extremely detailed comment! I spent a good half an hour explaining my reasons! ****!

 

[Cybernetics]

I have some questions:

• What is a developed country by your definition?
• What is the timeline/outline/conditions for development you see for each nation?
• By your projections when will each be considered developed by your definition?

You can limit your answer to just one country and use measurable metrics.

 

[That Guy]

I have some questions:

• What is a developed country by your definition?
• What is the timeline/outline/conditions for development you see your each nation?
• By your projections when will each be considered developed by your definition?

You can limit your answer to just one country.

There is already some definitions out there.

The most obvious ones are: at least 51% of the population of a nation will live in urban, or at least urbanized environments. The average GDP per capita (as per nominal gdp) should be above $12,000. Unemployment rate is low. Income equality is fairly balanced. Healthcare is available to all citizens, in some shape or form. Finally, literacy rate is above 90%, which a vast majority (90%) of the population having at least completed all levels of public schooling (this last one is iffy, as different nations have different standards).

Whether it's BD, Pak, and Ind, none of three will be able to achieve all of these goals before 2050, maybe not even 2070, but BD and Pak have a higher chance, due to the fact that they have a smaller population pool to deal with, and better income equality than India does.

India will always have a far higher over all GDP, heck probably even GDP per capita, but its sheer population size will continue to be as much of a hindrance as it has been a boon.

 

[Cybernetics]

There is already some definitions out there.

First one is the most obvious, at least 51% of the population of a nation will live in urban, or at least urbanized environments. The average GDP per capita (as per nominal gdp) should be above $12,000. Unemployment rate is low. Income equality is fairly balanced. Healthcare is available to all citizens, in some shape or form. Finally, literacy rate is above 90%, which a vast majority (90%) of the population having at least completed all levels of public schooling (this last one is iffy, as different nations have different standards).

Thank you, I am aware of the many international definitions out there. I asked because there is variation from country to country depending on their goals and people's values/culture. IMO it is important to not judge each country by the same standards of development to respect their respective cultures. What one country wants to achieve is not necessarily the same as another.

For example: China plans to become a developed country by 2080. Developed means greater than 70% urbanization, complete infrastructure, no material poverty, no starvation, universal health care/social security, 100% literacy, universities in top rankings, top 40 in development ranking, all key industrial components must be 70%+ made in China, number 1 in science & technology and economy, average life span over 80, clean environment, and ability to overcome geography/nature.

I agree that Pakistan and Bangladesh has an easier time than India to develop due to size. India will likely have a wealthy coast while still not resolving its internal divide. To feed the sub-continent, access to its own resources is not enough, not enough to get pass the middle income stage. It will likely require resources from Africa and Central Asia to feed South Asia's growth.

 

[That Guy]

Thank you, I am aware of the many international definitions out there. I asked because there is variation from country to country depending on their goals and people's values/culture. IMO it is important to not judge each country by the same standards of development to respect their respective cultures. What one country wants to achieve is not necessarily the same as another.

For example: China projects it will become a developed country by 2080. Developed means greater than 70% urbanization, complete infrastructure, no material poverty, no starvation, universal health care/social security, 100% literacy, universities in top rankings, top 40 in development ranking, all key industrial components must be 70%+ made in China, number 1 in science & technology and economy, average life span over 80, clean environment, and ability to overcome geography/nature.

I agree that Pakistan and Bangladesh has an easier time than India to develop due to size. India will likely have a wealthy coast while still not resolving its internal divide. To feed the sub-continent, access to its own resources is not enough, not enough to get passed the middle income stage. It will likely require resources from Africa and Central Asia to feed South Asia's growth.

I've actually expanded my comment, and fixed some issues. Please go back and re-read my comment.

 

[baajey]

where the heck is sri lanka ?
lanka will achieve developed status much before than the rest.
i would have voted india, but our population and low education n medical facilities are a huge drag.

 

[ashok321]

https://twitter.com/x/status/935946491906097155

 

[Mage]

https://twitter.com/x/status/935946491906097155

Now compare BD's population with Belgium's. And you'll get a better idea of things.

 

[bête noire]

Now compare BD's population with Belgium's. And you'll get a better idea of things.

Nominal
1990: Belgium GDP Per Capita 70x BD
2017: Belgium GDP Per Capita 27x BD
PPP
1990: Belgium GDP Per Capita 23x BD
2017: Belgium GDP Per Capita 10.6x BD

Decent improvement I would say. 1990 is when BD actually started improving. Would have been better if we didn't waste so much time after independence. We had GDP per capita of 200 something in 1990. It was really the worst until 1990.

 

[Devil Soul]

Okay which major country in South Asia do you think will become the first fully developed country? Vote and then post why you made the choice.

This might come as a surprise but I voted Bangladesh. I am rather prejudiced when it comes to Bangla but a honest assessment should attempt to discard such sentiments. I can't ignore that deep down I am most impressed by the plucky Banglas. From what I can see the country is fast sorting out it's fundamentals. So here are my reasons -

1. Homogenous ethnic based state giving it integrity, unity, cohesivness and stability that rest of South Asia can only dream.

2. A secular order that is not forever stuck in the quicksand of "Matlab Kya" but simply gets on trying build a country that provides decent life for everybody. This engenders a simple business like approach of sorting out real life issues like hunger, poverty, housing, sanitation, schooling, health etc. Leave god, religion, ummah for another day.

3. It has built up a impressive and genuine garment export industry. This has linked large part of Bangla with the western dominated trading system. Millions of Banglas now depend directly on Western buyers purchasing their products. This assures a common mutually beneficial relationship between the Western trading order and millions of ordinary Banglas. This alone reinforces the secular forces in Bangla and as we move forward they will get stronger as more Banglas will become dependant on this export industry which has a umbelical cord attached to the West.

4. The garment industry is introducing a sea change in culture. It is socializing millions of Bangla workers into modern industry and even more importantly most of these are females who will go on to nurture the next generation helping to bring about new social order inside Bangladesh.

5. As we forward the lessons learnt from garment industry will mature and over time Bangla will begin to move up the value chain. For example electronic goods might be next on the list. I can see those huge factories pouring out shirts moving up to manufacturing TVs etc.

The country will see increasing stability as millions of workers in Bangla know their living depends on keeping markets in the West sweet. This alone assures a huge internal mandate against Islamists. All stakeholders, government, business, employees, media know they all have to remain on the same page, paddle in same direction to keep those markets in West buying from them or it will be hunger time again. So the future is bright for Bangladesh. And I wish it the best. There is something deeply satisfying in seeing people raise temselves out of poverty and adversity through hardwork and grit.

You started with zero and your well on the way to becoming the hero. Well done Bangladesh.

u missed Srilanka, & others....... .....

 

[Mage]

Nominal
1990: Belgium GDP Per Capita 70x BD
2017: Belgium GDP Per Capita 27x BD
PPP
1990: Belgium GDP Per Capita 23x BD
2017: Belgium GDP Per Capita 10.6x BD

Decent improvement I would say. 1990 is when BD actually started improving. Would have been better if we didn't waste so much time after independence. We had GDP per capita of 200 something in 1990. It was really the worst until 1990.

And that's not good enough. You have to see how South Korea improved. How Singapore improved. Even Vietnam did much better in last 20 years compared to us.

 

[bête noire]

u missed Srilanka, & others....... .....

I want personally thank you for contributing so much to this thread for shedding light on the countries that clearly wasn't mentioned by many others long before you. You truly are a valuable member.