Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

[AfrazulMandal]

PAF shooting down 2 of their jets was also just a warning..

4 aircraft.
3 jets.

If Modi could resist the temptation to hijack his own military for his political campaign (and there is no evidence that he might), the pressure would have been on Pakistan to change its policies. His miscalculation lost India the first surprise advantage clearly, but it is not over yet.

Not really.

We never had any surprise after Pulwama.

Pulwama was a surprise.

Why is Pakistan taking action against grassroots Mujaheedin? What about their morale? What about morale in Kashmir?
Both India and Pakistan are destroying Jamaat. India in Kashmir and Pakistan allover their land.

Why?

 

[Hellfire]

@VCheng

You will find my post rather inflammatory, for the militarist in me now speaks.

I may not agree with everything Mr Modi does, but having spent the best years of my life in J&K and along LC, fighting what Pakistanis call freedom fighters, what some call terrorists and what we generally called militants (as long as they were Kashmiris and not foreigners), and knowing what, where, how and why of the armed struggle, bear with me, for I speak from my little experience of fighting what essentially are Pakistani trained killers, including and not exclusive to elements of Pakistani SSG.

The IAF action on 26 Feb 2019, proclaimed as an anti-terror operation, supposedly unable to target anything other than a couple of trees and a crow, was precisely a 'help rendered to Pakistan to fight the ultras on its soil', something which your own DG ISPR has suggested today. The Pakistani Action on 27 Feb 2019, ostensibly a response to 'Indian aggression', (aggression against what?), by all accounts, is an act in support of the terror groups that Pakistan claims does not exist (refer DG ISPR statement made today) and could not be targeted (as per Pakistan). By all logic, an act of state which supports terror. Make no mistake, JeM is a proscribed Terror outfit, not proscribed on India's whims, but by taking into account all evidence as garnered by various countries in the run up to proscribing it.

What has come of offering evidence, joint investigation and waiting for Pakistan to undertake the necessary steps? Nothing. We continue to bleed.

So today, as a soldier, I face a nation which has a Government, an armed forces, intelligence services and a society, that is against the interests of my nation. I see that nation taking my nation for a fool, bleeding us and its citizens, gleefully celebrating on this very forum, every death of my countrymen and women. Guess what, that has to end. And for that to end, we, as a nation, need to revisit the first and most important principle of war - wage it to break the will of the enemy to resist you.

So, what does India have to do now? We have used all means to cajole, coerce and convince the Government of Pakistan and Pakistani Armed Forces to create and mentor an environment that promotes mutual existence - to no avail.

The only option now left, which any military commander worth his or her salt will tell you, is to target the base, the support and the source, in order to break the will of the enemy to wage a war.

I am not mistaken when I see the actions of Pakistan in J&K as a war. And to win, I see that I must hold to account every base that supports that war being waged against my country. And the most important and crucial element that comes to fore is the Pakistani society that supports, nurtures and provides these organizations that bleed my nation.

Until and unless this base feels exponential pain and bleeds every time we bleed, the actions will not change. No amount of coercing the Government or militarily pressurizing the Pakistani Armed Forces, will change the approach.

I have oft stated that I do not wish for a war to take place, and it shall not, but costs will be imposed, exacting ones for every act of terror which is traced to Pakistan. That, no one should have a doubt.

@Joe Shearer

 

[VCheng]

I have oft stated that I do not wish for a war to take place, and it shall not, but costs will be imposed, exacting ones for every act of terror which is traced to Pakistan. That, no one should have a doubt.

Actually, your post makes sense to me as the voice of a patriot from the opposing side. As I have often said, the nuclear deterrence on both sides makes it imperative that direct war is avoided while other avenues are explored to the maximum. The economy is where it's at between nuclear rivals, I am quite sure.

 

[Joe Shearer]

@VCheng

You will find my post rather inflammatory, for the militarist in me now speaks.

I may not agree with everything Mr Modi does, but having spent the best years of my life in J&K and along LC, fighting what Pakistanis call freedom fighters, what some call terrorists and what we generally called militants (as long as they were Kashmiris and not foreigners), and knowing what, where, how and why of the armed struggle, bear with me, for I speak from my little experience of fighting what essentially are Pakistani trained killers, including and not exclusive to elements of Pakistani SSG.

The IAF action on 26 Feb 2019, proclaimed as an anti-terror operation, supposedly unable to target anything other than a couple of trees and a crow, was precisely a 'help rendered to Pakistan to fight the ultras on its soil', something which your own DG ISPR has suggested today. The Pakistani Action on 27 Feb 2019, ostensibly a response to 'Indian aggression', (aggression against what?), by all accounts, is an act in support of the terror groups that Pakistan claims does not exist (refer DG ISPR statement made today) and could not be targeted (as per Pakistan). By all logic, an act of state which supports terror. Make no mistake, JeM is a proscribed Terror outfit, not proscribed on India's whims, but by taking into account all evidence as garnered by various countries in the run up to proscribing it.

What has come of offering evidence, joint investigation and waiting for Pakistan to undertake the necessary steps? Nothing. We continue to bleed.

So today, as a soldier, I face a nation which has a Government, an armed forces, intelligence services and a society, that is against the interests of my nation. I see that nation taking my nation for a fool, bleeding us and its citizens, gleefully celebrating on this very forum, every death of my countrymen and women. Guess what, that has to end. And for that to end, we, as a nation, need to revisit the first and most important principle of war - wage it to break the will of the enemy to resist you.

So, what does India have to do now? We have used all means to cajole, coerce and convince the Government of Pakistan and Pakistani Armed Forces to create and mentor an environment that promotes mutual existence - to no avail.

The only option now left, which any military commander worth his or her salt will tell you, is to target the base, the support and the source, in order to break the will of the enemy to wage a war.

I am not mistaken when I see the actions of Pakistan in J&K as a war. And to win, I see that I must hold to account every base that supports that war being waged against my country. And the most important and crucial element that comes to fore is the Pakistani society that supports, nurtures and provides these organizations that bleed my nation.

Until and unless this base feels exponential pain and bleeds every time we bleed, the actions will not change. No amount of coercing the Government or militarily pressurizing the Pakistani Armed Forces, will change the approach.

I have oft stated that I do not wish for a war to take place, and it shall not, but costs will be imposed, exacting ones for every act of terror which is traced to Pakistan. That, no one should have a doubt.

@Joe Shearer

I knew I wouldn't like it, but I also know that the military is beginning to ask if the government - any government - is serious about solving problems.

At least you were forthright in your views.

 

[coffee_cup]

So, what does India have to do now? .

My friend you have to do the ultimate thing, that is, STOP sponsoring cross-border terrorism in the region.
Now a seasoned bully, india, who has for too long played the victim card (rather successfully) has been completely exposed, you need to build another narrative.

There are two things that will DEFINITELY help the region:

1) Indian apology of sponsoring terrorism in the region for such a long time and a firm commitment that she will never use that tool in future again

2) Let Kashmir cool down and pull some of your abusive forces from there so that we can get back to status quo.

Or else you can keep walking the current path. Keep pulling off those imaginary "SirGiKal" strikes and make your public do the victory dance near Taj Mahal. The last many decades have not helped you with that and neither are the coming ones are going to, world is getting tired of your (wolf-in-sheep-clothes) victim mantra.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

supposedly unable to target anything other than a couple of trees and a crow,

Are you seriously still sticking to the stance, now debunked by almost every independent media organization and multiple satellite image analysts, that the IAF actually hit something other than a bunch of trees?

With all due respect to your service, if you're still insistent on believing claims that are belied by all the available facts and evidence, it reflects poorly on the process you're utilizing to arrive at the conclusions in your post. More importantly, from a regional and global perspective, it's a rather sobering thought that there are likely many others like you in positions such as yours, with varying degrees of influence individually (and potentially a significant degree of influence as a collective) that may also be utilizing similarly unsubstantiated claims to formulate views and lobby for decisions/policies based on those flawed views.

 

[American Pakistani]

Pakistan will always support Kashmiris and their cause, fk the rest. If anything that will change now is indian arrogance after they were thrashed like a mosquito.

In addition to 46 occupier terrorists, India now stand at losing 2 fighter jets, 6-8 pilots, 1 helicopter. Not just that but in response to Indian intrusion and attack on 3 locations, Pakistan also intruded and bombed 6 locations.

 

[VCheng]

Are you seriously still sticking to the stance, now debunked by almost every independent media organization and multiple satellite image analysts, that the IAF actually hit something other than a bunch of trees?

What if the real intent was to show that bombs can be dropped into Pakistan proper in pursuit of a "counter-terrorism operation" as described by the international community? No casualties on purpose would still make the point with a prudent walkback possible. (Recall I told you earlier that the claim of casualties would not be true.)

Pakistan would be well-advised to seriously consider its options and change certain policies. Business as usual may no longer be an option. However, it is a nuclear-armed sovereign nation that will make its own choices in pursuing its national interests, of course.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

What if the real intent was to show that bombs can be dropped into Pakistan proper in pursuit of a "counter-terrorism operation" as described by the international community? No casualties on purpose would still make the point with a prudent walkback possible. (Recall I told you earlier that the claim of casualties would not be true.)

Pakistan would be well-advised to seriously consider its options and change certain policies. Business as usual may no longer be an option. However, it is a nuclear-armed sovereign nation that will make its own choices in pursuing its national interests, of course.

I’ll direct you back to my earlier response to these issues:
Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

 

[VCheng]

I’ll direct you back to my earlier response to these issues:
Where do India and Pakistan go from here?

I read that, and replied there too, but this:

Pakistan will continue to do what little it can in terms of freezing assets and detaining leadership of certain organizations, but that will not stop another Pulwama from occurring. Stopping another Pulwama is in Indian hands, in terms of India (especially the BJP) changing its tactics in IoK.

is important in that the usual shell game may no longer work for Pakistan. Even if India does nothing, internationally the costs may be mounting (IMF, WB, FATF, to name a few) to the point that Pakistan will need to pay attention.

 

[BATMAN]

Now that the predictable de-escalation is in process, the real question to ask is where do India and Pakistan go from here?

India will continue to re-negotiate Rafael. It's official now. They'll come back after they have bought Rafael.... so no war until next couple of years.

 

[Kaniska]

You tagged three Indians who are on opposite sides of a political fence. I agree with the Economist; as usual, it has stated the less-than-palatable truth. Leaving anything reasonable to be done by Modi leaves an unpleasant aftertaste in the mouth; my two compatriots, who are otherwise owners of my very sincere respect, will disagree, and all but give me the lie with regard to Modi's performance;both as being a contrast to other politicians and their tenures, and in terms of actual achievement on his own.

I am interested to see what they will say to you. If they say at all. They may or may not respond; sometimes they remind me of the slogan of the old nobles, the Urquharts of Scotland:

"They say;
What say they?
Let them say."

Mate, the greatest benifit of perception that Modi gets in his politics is a contrast of perceivable action between opposite camps...Congress and regional parties have made our country as a nation who can sucked into fear by just few bomb blasts here and there...Technically Modi may not have done anything...I may doubt wheather IAM really bombed anything or not....But what matters on the ground about his guts and risk-taking ability to create an opinion in India and outside world, that he can do some thing crazy to achieve the objective....and india was definitely missing such kind of crazy leader for long time...

People can feel his craziness in either war depending on our political affiliation...But at least, he is a person who is talking something and taking some action here...In our history of 70 years, except Mrs Gandhi, none of the leaders try to confront the kashmir issue head on....Kashmir is on war since last 30 year..in a war, there will be a casualty...But that should not prevent us to act tough on anti national elements in our nation..

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

the usual shell game may no longer work for Pakistan. Even if India does nothing, internationally the costs may be mounting (IMF, WB, FATF, to name a few) to the point that Pakistan will need to pay attention.

Shell game? Can you point to any tangible support the Pulwama attackers received from Pakistan? Local man, radicalized because of Indian brutality against the population. Locally procured explosives and other material. No indication of even financial support from Pakistan. And how many JEM (and I’m referring to the parent organization in Pakistan) attacks have occurred in IoK over the last 10 years?

Quoting Indian talking points is fine, but just regurgitating the same allegations doesn’t make them true or substantive.

 

[VCheng]

Shell game? Can you point to any tangible support the Pulwama attackers received from Pakistan? Local man, radicalized because of Indian brutality against the population. Locally procured explosives and other material. No indication of even financial support from Pakistan. And how many JEM (and I’m referring to the parent organization in Pakistan) attacks have occurred in IoK over the last 10 years?

Quoting Indian talking points is fine, but just regurgitating the same allegations doesn’t make them true or substantive.

The shell game I am referring to involves the periodic roundups and bans on proscribed organizations by the Government of Pakistan, which are then free to resume their activities under other names, until the next round. I can accept Pulwana as an internal matter of India.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

People can feel his craziness in either war

That’s just it. He’s an extremist, and extremists, whether Hindu or Muslim, don’t care about the cost of their actions or even if the pursuit of their goals results in widespread destruction.

That said, the one thing Modi, and people with rage (as described by Vibrio), perhaps don’t recognize is that Pakistan and Pakistanis live with that same rage and militant desire to succeed against the ‘enemy’. That should be obvious from the institutional and national (people) response to the IAF strikes in Balakot.

Does Pakistan recognize that in a full out war it will be outgunned and out manned? Yes, which is why Pakistani retaliation will always be preceded by, accompanied with and followed by calls for deescalation. But calls for deescalation should not be confused with a lack of commitment, courage or will to retaliate to our fullest extent.

Pakistan, all of Pakistan, not just one disputed state, went through a decade of fire, chaos and destruction wreaked by the TTP and associated groups, a situation India has not even come close to experiencing at a national level. Pakistan went through a civil war and dismemberment in 1971. Indians look at these events and call Pakistan a failed State. But I would point out that throughout Pakistan’s history, no matter the blood and destruction Pakistan has gone through, no matter the cost in blood and treasure paid, the country and her people have never bowed down, and never will.

Vibrio says that India has tried everything. He is wrong. India has not genuinely tried to engage with Pakistan to arrive at some sort of compromise over Kashmir, not recently at least. It was India (or the Indian establishment) that scuttled Musharraf’s proposals the last time around we had a genuine chance at resolution. India has not sincerely engaged since, and the feeling within Pakistan, after the Musharraf failure, is that India never will. Some introspection on the Indian side as to her role in contributing to the situation is also necessary.