What would happen if Venezuela sold its F-16's to Iran?

[QWECXZ]

When the Chinese ambassador to Iran visits, have ambassador employees exchange flash drives of Bavar 373s and FC-31s data. Then days later, have the Chinese claim that Iranian hackers stole jet fighter/stealth technology for cover.

This is how you ToT without US sanctions.

Only if it were that easy.

A.Q. Khan transferred blueprints for P-1 and P-2 gas centrifuges to Iran in early 1990s, if I remember correctly. We couldn't build high quality P-2 centrifuges until 2003 at least.

Even if the Chinese transfer the blueprints to us, we will need a revolution in our metallurgy to be able to build anything close to a 5th gen. jet fighter.

And why would the Chinese need Bavar-373 when they can make a deal with Russia for a ToT of S400?

 

[zectech]

And why would the Chinese need Bavar-373 when they can make a deal with Russia for a ToT of S400?

Why would China need to make copies of PAC-3s. They still make them. Chinese are great in getting other ideas and improving on them.

 

[CrazyZ]

Makes no sense. Sell them to Iraq. They all ready own F-16's and are close to Iran.

 

[QWECXZ]

Read my comment to the member Aspen. You need to think in terms of time-scale. 4th generation fighters are becoming relatively obsolete today, never-mind by the time your upgraded F-16 is ready. There is only so much you can do to an F-16 platform.

Iran will not be producing a fifth generation fighter before 2030s. However, the steps to make it happen are occurring. If Iran manages to obtain help from the outside, then naturally this will speed things up. There is no other alternative.

You do not need to wait around to build an engine. You can start off by importing foreign engines.

If the embargo is lifted, then there is little reason for a relatively friendly state not to export engines to Iran.

Manned planes will play less and less role as time goes on, but no one can give an exact time period when they will be "obsolete".

Yes, an upgraded F16 is an obsolete jet fighter. Apparently modified F5 is not obsolete. Yet, Israel is using her fleet of "obsolete" F16s against Syria effectively. I wonder how that's possible.

What steps for building a 5th gen. fighter are taking place? Clue me in please.

Yes, you do. Designing an aircraft without having the slightest idea about what engine you will use doesn't make much sense to me. Who will export turbofan engines to us? Russia?

We are back to if's. Even if the arms embargo expires, it will be back soon. I have already discussed why in the Iranian Defense section.

Actually I think I was very generous when I said manned aircraft would be obsolete by 2070. I should've said 2050. With the advances of AI, machine learning algorithms, brain-computer interface technologies and neuroscience one can build incredibly formidable jet fighters that are autonomous by 2050.

 

[Aspen]

How many countries produce turbofan engines? 5 at most, if we include China. 3 of them are our adversaries that would bomb Iran instantly if they thought they could win the war, 2 of them are global powers that we can't rely on them. One of the two has a history of not fulfilling its promises times and times again. The other one is very new to all of this.

How do you plan to build a turbofan engine from scratch?

You don't need to build from scratch, you only need to maintain it.

Two factors to consider. One is the stealth factor which us playing a very important role today and going into the future. The other factor is the subsystems used in the platform. F-16 is an inherently non-stealth design. No matter how much you upgrade it, it will always fall short against a 5th generation fighter (assuming pilots are of similar skill set). Furthermore, people are not thinking properly in terms of time-scale. Iran's adversaries are flying many 4th generation planes today, but by the time Iran manages to develop its own set of 4th planes (lets assume by using an F-16 from Venezuela as a template) these planes will be even more outdated. That is why it is important for Iran to aim for future proof technologies, an inherently stealthy design is key.

Yeah but if you stick with F-14's it will be even more outdated than with F-16.

Also, F-16 is not obsolete in any way.

 

[Philosopher]

Yes, F16 is an obsolete jet fighter. Apparently modified F5 is not obsolete.

Who here made the statement F-5 is not obsolete?

Yet, Israel is using her fleet of "obsolete" F16s against Syria effectively. I wonder how that's possible.

Yes, lets take Israel's attacks on war-torn Syria as a great representation regarding the capability of the f-16 as a superiority fighter against, lets say, a nation which possesses fifth generation fighters. You need to try and understand the context in which the term "obsolete" is being used here.

What steps for building a 5th gen. fighter is happening? Clue me in please.

1- Stealth fighter designs are in development
2- Stealth materials are also in development for such fighters

You should put in more effort in researching this area.

Yes, you do. Designing an aircraft without having the slightest idea about what engine you will use doesn't make much sense to me. Who will export turbofan engines to us? Russia?

You do not wait around until you made an engine before you completed your fighter jet projects. Many nations are developing their platform but will rely on importing of engines. Look at Turkish project, Korea projects etc.

We are back to if's. Even if the arms embargo expires, it will be back soon. I have already discussed why in the Iranian Defense section.

That is your own conjecture. If it happens, then we can consider your points, until then, we know the embargo is scheduled to be removed.

Actually I think I was very generous when I said manned aircraft would be obsolete by 2070. I should've said 2050. With the advances of AI, machine learning algorithms, brain-computer interface technologies and neuroscience one can build incredibly formidable jet fighters that are autonomous by 2050.

Possible but not likely. You have to wait to see if those technologies will properly mature first. In a few decades, we will have a much better idea.

Yeah but if you stick with F-14's it will be even more outdated than with F-16.

An upgraded F-14 with long range radar and missile will certainly not be as outdated as an F-16.
Air-combat is all about who sees first and who shoots first.

Also, F-16 is not obsolete in any way.

In a world where you have 5th generation being flown by your adversaries, yes, it is relatively obsolete. It does have its uses, but its not a wise investment for a country like Iran. Remember we are talking in the context of an air superiority fighter.

 

[QWECXZ]

Who here made the statement F-5 is not obsolete?

Yes, lets take Israeli's attack on war-torn Syria as a great representation regarding the capability of the f-16 as a superiority fighter against lets say nation which possess fifth generation fighters. You need to try and understand the context of what term "obsolete" is being used in here.

1- Stealth fighter designs are in development
2- Stealth materials are also in development for such fighters

You should put in more effort in researching this area.

You do not wait around until you made an engine before you completed your fighter jet projects. Many nations are developing their platform but will rely on importing of engines. Look at Turkish project, Korea projects etc.

That is your own conjecture. If it happens, then we can consider your points, until then, we know the embargo is scheduled to be removed.

Possible but not likely. You have to wait to see if those technologies will properly mature first. In a few decades, we will have a much better idea.

If F16 is obsolete, then why doesn't Iran arm Syria with a downgraded version of Bavar-373 to make the Syrian sky secure?

I have no doubt that Iran can produce stealth paints and materials. However, I highly doubt that Iran would be able to produce a turbofan engine before 2030. And that requires foreign assistance.

Turkey and South Korea have access to the international market and they have more options than us. Iran doesn't have many options to purchase a turbofan engine from. If you want to seriously mass produce a 5th generation fighter jet, you should know what kind of engine you will use.

You're right. It's my conjecture. But there's a good chance that it can happen. And it's better that we use the current opportunity and buy Venezuelan F16s now that Venezuela is really tight on money that we can have a short term backup plan if my conjecture becomes true.

It's very likely actually. BCI technologies are already there and they are maturing so fast that some of the patents in BCI technologies are becoming commercialized already. People are installing brain implants on human subjects to record their thoughts and actions. Assuming a secure encrypted communication line, a pilot hiding inside a bunker behind a simulator will be able to remote-control a jet fighter by his thoughts just as he is inside the jet fighter. And even if the connection breaks, the jet fighter can enter autonomous mode and use previous decision making patterns and AI to continue its mission.

 

[Oldman1]

Iran never got it. Show the evidence besides BS photos. Otherwise you would see reversed engineered F-16 that you supposedly they had for many decades.

 

[Naofumi]

It's very likely actually. BCI technologies are already there and they are maturing so fast that some of the patents in BCI technologies are becoming commercialized already. People are installing brain implants on human subjects to record their thoughts and actions. Assuming a secure encrypted communication line, a pilot hiding inside a bunker behind a simulator will be able to remote-control a jet fighter by his thoughts just as he is inside the jet fighter. And even if the connection breaks, the jet fighter can enter autonomous mode and use previous decision making patterns and AI to continue its mission.

Any write up on weaponised AI research?

 

[Philosopher]

If F16 is obsolete, then why doesn't Iran arm Syria with a downgraded version of Bavar-373 to completely secure the Syrian sky?

I am not sure what you are trying to get at with this question, you're insinuating Iran thinks its system will not be able to down a 4th generation fighter, and hence why it is not sending its air defence assets?

I have no doubt that Iran can produce stealth paints. However, I highly doubt that Iran would be able to produce a turbofan engine before 2030. And that requires foreign assistance.

Once again, you do not need to wait to produce an engine before you can work on others aspects of your fighter jet.

If you want to seriously mass produce a 5th generation fighter jet, you should know what kind of engine you will use.

You are commenting as if a fighter jet will reject an engine. This is not organ transplant. You can use many different engines in a fighter jet. Iran has many options for a potential 5th gen project.

You're right. It's my conjecture. But there's a good chance that it can happen. And it's better than we buy Venezuelan F16s now that Venezuela is really tight on money that we can have a backup plan for short term then.

Their F-16 is in no way shape or form a backup plan for Iran. It is simply not enough. Too little, too late.

IAssuming a secure encrypted communication line, a pilot hiding inside a bunker behind a simulator will be able to remote-control a jet fighter by his thoughts just as he is inside the jet fighter. And even if the connection breaks, the jet fighter can enter autonomous mode and use previous decision making patterns and AI to continue its mission.

You are making two major assumptions:

1- There is a secure encrypted communication
2- A sufficient autonomous feature.

Both of these are the reason why Unmanned systems will not take over anytime soon. Hence why I said, until these technologies properly mature, you will not seen anything like you have hypothesised.

 

[flameboard]

iran already have f-16 .

I thought those were mockups and no were delivered to Iran

 

[QWECXZ]

Any write up on weaponised AI research?

There are, but it's more like sci-fi at this moment. I mean they just talk about it. They don't release much documented information about it. But DARPA is strongly interested and heavily invested in it.

I am not sure what you are trying to get at with question, you think Iran thinks its system will not be able to down a 4th generation fighter, and hence why it is not sending its air defence assets?

Once again, you do not need to wait to produce an engine before you can work on others aspects of your fighter jet.

You are commenting as if a fighter jet will reject an engine. This is not organ transplant. You can use many different engines in a fighter jet. Iran has many options for a potential 5th gen project.

Their F-16 is in no way shape or form a backup plan for Iran. It is simply not enough. Too little, too late.

You are making two major assumptions:

1- There is a secure encrypted communication
2- A sufficient autonomous feature.

Both of these are the reason why Unmanned systems will not take over anytime soon. Hence why I said, until these technologies properly mature, you will not seen anything like you have hypothesised.

I didn't want to say it like this, but yes, that's what I think. Otherwise I don't see why Iran can't sell Syria downgraded versions of its air defense systems to prevent Israel from attacking Syria with "obsolete" F16s.

Sure. You can always come up with brilliant ideas like Qaher-313.

Seriously? So, designing air intakes is not important? And how can you know how stealth your jet fighter will be without knowing what engines you will use?

No, I am saying that an encrypted communication can be a plus if you want to use it in manual mode. I said it could switch to the autonomous mode if necessary. An encrypted communication is a basic requirement for communication and networking among airborne assets anyway.

As for the second one, even in Iran people are working on installing arrays of electrodes on primates to record their cerebral and deep brain activity. AI will be extremely advanced when it is trained based on data obtained from an actual pilot's thoughts. This is an emerging field that is growing and maturing incredibly fast in the world, including Iran. People are already decrypting neuronal communications to integrate prosthetic legs and arms on people with disabilities. And that's what is released to the public domain. There's so much secrecy around this because it's linked to mind control technologies.

 

[Philosopher]

I didn't want to say it like this, but yes, that's what I think. Otherwise I don't see why Iran can't sell Syria a downgraded version of its air defense to prevent Israel from attacking Syria.

This is a highly superficial understanding of this matter. You do not just sent in a long range AD into such a conflict and expect miracles. Long range air defence system like Bavar, S-300 etc must be complemented by other layers of air defence in order to protect them otherwise they are highly vulnerable. Furthermore, Bavar can easily overwhelmed by the Israelis in Syria. This does not mean Bavar could not easily down F-16s.

Sure. You can always come up with brilliant ideas like Qaher-313.

Qaher was not an air superiority fighter nor was it a 5th generation project so I am not sure why that is relevant to this discussion.

Seriously? So, designing air intakes is not important? And how can you know how stealth your jet fighter will be without knowing what engines you will use?

This comment makes no sense. Most engines are of almost identical dimensions, since when does the design of an air-intakes depend on such engines? Look at the Su-57, it currently uses the AL-41 and will transition to the
izdeliye 30 later, but no alteration in intake needed.

Furthermore, consider another idea, such as Divert-less Supersonic Inlet (DSI). The F-35 DSI was used in an F-16, was a change in the engine needed?

No, I am saying that an encrypted communication can be a plus if you want to use it in manual mode. I said it could switch to the autonomous mode if necessary. An encrypted communication is a basic requirement for communication and networking among airborne assets anyway.

Encrypted communication and being "jam proof" etc is absolutely essential in manual mode, it is not just a "plus". That is one of the main reason why remotely controlled systems are so vulnerable today.

As for the second one, even in Iran people are working on installing arrays of electrodes on primates to record their cerebral and deep brain activity. AI will be extremely advanced when it is trained based on data obtained from an actual pilot's thoughts. This is an emerging field that is growing and maturing incredibly fast in the world, including Iran. People are already decrypting neuronal communication to integrate prosthetic legs and arms for people with disabilities.

Again, these concepts are still not mature technologies. When they are mature enough, then we can discuss, but as of now, we cannot make the claims with regards to when this will happen. Autonomous fighters will become a reality, no doubt. When that will happen is anyone's guess. It is a fool's errand to try and predict the future with any meaningful certainty.

 

[masterchief_mirza]

Who here made the statement F-5 is not obsolete?



Yes, lets take Israel's attacks on war-torn Syria as a great representation regarding the capability of the f-16 as a superiority fighter against, lets say, a nation which possesses fifth generation fighters. You need to try and understand the context in which the term "obsolete" is being used here.




1- Stealth fighter designs are in development
2- Stealth materials are also in development for such fighters

You should put in more effort in researching this area.

You do not wait around until you made an engine before you completed your fighter jet projects. Many nations are developing their platform but will rely on importing of engines. Look at Turkish project, Korea projects etc.



That is your own conjecture. If it happens, then we can consider your points, until then, we know the embargo is scheduled to be removed.



Possible but not likely. You have to wait to see if those technologies will properly mature first. In a few decades, we will have a much better idea.



An upgraded F-14 with long range radar and missile will certainly not be as outdated as an F-16.
Air-combat is all about who sees first and who shoots first.




In a world where you have 5th generation being flown by your adversaries, yes, it is relatively obsolete. It does have its uses, but its not a wise investment for a country like Iran. Remember we are talking in the context of an air superiority fighter.

Oversimplification to state f16 is outdated in 2020. With the right pilots, experience, EW support, it is still brilliant. Just ask the PAF what they think of it. Probably the reality is that if a nation has already been used to and pretty much had its teeth cut for decades on the f16 platform (Israel and Pakistan spring to mind as apt examples who have gained experience with it in combat) those nations can still extract plenty of mileage from it. To suddenly take on f16s as a new platform may well be a futile effort in 2020.

 

[Oldman1]

I thought those were mockups and no were delivered to Iran

They are mockups. Look at the engine.