What would China be like today if the Nationalists had won the Chinese Civil War?

[Viet]

I pity the chinese. if we just had half of the power of china, we would have long brought home taiwan.
moreover, we would unite japan,korea and vietnam under one banner. and enslave SE Asia. ups, forget what I said about the latter. Ccp, chinese posters here and elsewhere can only lament.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

@Nihonjin1051 why didnt you tagged me buddy.

IMO,

we can’t compare who is doing better than who just by comparing what HK/MC/TW/CN have each achieved, because each country has different contexts, e.g. we can’t say the CCP is better cos she lifted over 800 million out of poverty. Well thats not really a good comparison because the KMT was never in charged of 800 million in the past few decades.

The question was, what would mainland China be like if the KMT were in charge of mainland China. People here will doubt my ESP power so I’ll just hightlight two points. How the KMT would perform if they were in charge of the mainland would mainly be speculative but I think the 2 following points are concrete historic facts:

1. After the CCP and KMT went their separate way, the CCP imposed the Cultural Revolution on their population which was demerital to the country while the KMT didn’t. There was that White terror thing but I don’t think it was as harmful as the the Cultural Revolution.

2. Taiwan, under the KMT, opened up to capitalism, opened its market and integrated itself to the western world earlier than mainland China did.

IMO, these 2 factors made a big impact on the development of the 2 respective countries. I could be wrong though. Please forgive me if I’m wrong.

But if I’m correct, then let’s just imagine for a second that the KMT was in control of the mainland and the CCP was in control of Taiwan.

Then apply the 2 mentioned historic facts onto this imaginary scenario where CCP’s small Taiwan had to go through the Cultural Revolution and integrated itself to the rest of the world much later. Then imagine the KMT’s mainland China not having had to go through the Cultural Revolution but integrated itself to the rest of the world much earlier than the CCP of today, I think we will see a big difference.

KMT opened itself to capitalism in 1920's but did that help China at all? No. It just made China even more dependent on foreign technologies. Capitalism has a long history. It didn't start in 1950's and 60's. It started in 1780's with Adam Smith's "On the Wealth of Nations".

During the Qing Dynasty, at least China had the Hanyang Arsenal which made battleships and cannons just as good as the British, since they hired British and German engineers to draw up blueprints and train Chinese engineers. During the KMT, they even lost the capabilities of upgrading the Hanyang arsenal.

My best answer is this: In the real world, we judge people's futures by what they have done in the past. KMT rule was, by all objective measures, an absolute disaster. Why do you think they would've done better after 1949 if they were absolute disasters before 1949? Just as F students don't suddenly turn into A students without external influence...

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

Can you persuade a right wing boy.

Nihonjin and Yoshi Oda are both right wing, just one is even further right than the other one.

 

[Aepsilons]

The massive early industrialisation of China worsens the first two oil shocks and significantly accelerate depletion of fossil fuel reserves (mostly traditional oil, as coal is plentiful).

In our time, a China that plateus at a level or even close to the level of development of Japan... would be the economic superpower. Long before that point, it would have had to transition from an export oriented economy to a mature one. Id predict at least on major economic crisis in the process.

With less disastrous agricultural policies, a growing China during the green revolution and partly before easy birth control might see an early population boom, which by now would have levelled off or even stagnated (see Japan). Id still think population level s would be higher.

Such a China would be less of a subordinate ally to the USA than other nations and more of an equal, simply due its immense population. Even post cold war, the world wouldnt be unipolar one. Two superpowers. Which is why I kind of doubt that China wouldn't pursue nuclear weapons. They would still be a permanent security council member, which gives them plenty reason to claim equality with the UK or France (which did pursue nuclear weapons despite being protected by the us nuclear 'umbrella')

 

[William Hung]

KMT opened itself to capitalism in 1920's but did that help China at all? No. It just made China even more dependent on foreign technologies. During the Qing Dynasty, at least China had the Hanyang Arsenal which made battleships and cannons just as good as the British, since they hired British and German engineers to draw up blueprints and train Chinese engineers. During the KMT, they even lost the capabilities of upgrading the Hanyang arsenal.

It takes lots of time to see the dividend once you open up. When did mainland China opened up and reformed its economy? Long ago and you are only seeing the real tangible results in the 2000s onwards.

KMT got kicked out and CCP halted their plan once CCP took over, not to mention the disruptive war that happened back then. So KMT did not have enough time to see their plans through.

 

[Aepsilons]

Let us focus on the title in this thread please

Okay, let's agree to one thing (to avoid a disagreement; because I want to know your opinion on this scenario):

1. China (KMT&CPC) defeats the Japanese Empire in 1943
   1. Japan sues for peace; China accepts
      1. Japan returns Taiwan
      2. Japan grants independence to Korea
2. KMT & CPC join hands and forge one 'National' Government, fuse the nationalist and socialist ideology into a national preamble and constitution.

China emerges from the war as a powerful nation , with international prestige. Threatened by China's growth, the Soviet Union initiates covert acts to cause riot. China needs a partner to resist Soviet hegemony and domination of Asia. In this case China is the 'Vanguard' against Soviet expansionism.

Do you think :

• China will forge an alliance with Japan?
  
• China will forge a security pact with the United States?

@Chinese-Dragon @Shotgunner51 @Yorozuya @EAsian et al.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

KMT opened itself to capitalism in 1920's but did that help China at all? No. It just made China even more dependent on foreign technologies. During the Qing Dynasty, at least China had the Hanyang Arsenal which made battleships and cannons just as good as the British, since they hired British and German engineers to draw up blueprints and train Chinese engineers. During the KMT, they even lost the capabilities of upgrading the Hanyang arsenal.

Beware of some so-called KMT 'patriots', and don't get fooled just because they also take the pride from China's modern achievements.

They are still staunchly anti-CPC and want to steal all credits from CPC, but their ultimate goal is to overthrow CPC and to take China back.

国民党有一群深蓝蓝统真是不知道天高地厚，看到老共成为超级大国的领袖就眼红了，以为自己以后也能够取而代之。

历来的超级大国从美国到苏联到后来的老共有哪个不是经过了血的洗礼和惊心动魄的生死斗争？ 你国民党一群嘴炮党何德何能，以为来蒙蔽一群果粉就能借此上位了？ 真是太异想天开了，等再过几年台湾老共也不会在给国民党好脸色看了，就等着被武统吧。

 

[SarthakGanguly]

The obvious answer is probably something like Taiwan. Yet would the Nationalists have to reform and adopt democracy with a much wider base of money and resources to finance their rule? How would the Cold War play out? Without Mao, the Cultural Revolution, The Great Leap, would China be worse off, better, or bizzarely and unrecognizably different?


@Shotgunner51 @rugering @XiangLong @HRM YANG @sahaliyan @cnleio @IR-TR @mike2000 is back @LeveragedBuyout @Technogaianist @gambit @jhungary et al.

China would have been smaller. They would have remained divided. They would have had remained a rival to India, but not that capable. Mao streamlined the society by 're educating' all millions of dissidents. They disappeared. Literally.

It would have been good for India.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

My best answer is this: In the real world, we judge people's futures by what they have done in the past. KMT rule was, by all objective measures, an absolute disaster. Why do you think they would've done better after 1949 if they were absolute disasters before 1949? Just as F students don't suddenly turn into A students without external influence...

Objectively speaking, the CPC has done the most good for the Chinese people, by far.

Lifting 800 million people out of poverty in a few decades, that has never been done before by any other country in human history.

The KMT on the other hand failed to handle even tiny Taiwan, over the last few decades they lost official diplomatic recognition from the entire world. What a failure.

HK/Macau/Singapore all did WAY better than Taiwan with the same benefit of a smaller population. But even then, they are all still too small to restore the power of the Chinese civilization, only the Mainland can do this. That's just being realistic.

 

[Aepsilons]

Objectively speaking, the CPC has done the most good for the Chinese people, by far.

Lifting 800 million people out of poverty in a few decades, that has never been done before by any other country in human history.

The KMT on the other hand failed to handle even tiny Taiwan, over the last few decades they lost official diplomatic recognition from the entire world. What a failure.

HK/Macau/Singapore all did WAY better than Taiwan with the same benefit of a smaller population. But even then, they are all still too small to restore the power of the Chinese civilization, only the Mainland can do this. That's just being realistic.

Objectively speaking, one erroneous aspect of the KMT early on was their retaliatory policies. In think this was one aspect that prevented them from gaining the loyalty of the peasants and farmers in the countryside.

 

[XiaoYaoZi Backup]

Beware of some so-called KMT 'patriots', and don't get fooled just because they also take the pride from China's modern achievements.

They are still staunchly anti-CPC and want to steal all credits from CPC, but their ultimate goal is to overthrow CPC and to take China back.

国民党有一群深蓝蓝统真是不知道天高地厚，看到老共成为超级大国的领袖就眼红了，以为自己以后也能够取而代之。

历来的超级大国从美国到苏联到老共有哪个不是经过了血的洗礼和惊心动魄的生死斗争？ 你国民党一群嘴炮党和德何能，以为来蒙蔽一群果粉就能借此上位了？ 真是太异想天开了，等再过几年台湾老共也不会在给国民党好脸色看了，就等着被武统吧。

纯粹意象天开,倭人今天让我在另一个帖子扇脸扇成灰了,受刺激了,然后连开几个关于历史帖子.你去添点东西,我不能发链接.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

It takes lots of time to see the dividend once you open up. When did mainland China opened up and reformed its economy? Long ago and you are only seeing the real tangible results in the 2000s onwards.

KMT got kicked out and CCP halted their plan once CCP took over, not too mention the wars that happened. So KMT did not have enough time to see their plans through.

1978 wasn't that long ago and the economy was not fully open until 1995 or so.

KMT had 37 years, while CPC had achievements as early as 1959. Indeed, the 1950's saw greater economic growth than KMT times, while social indicators such as literacy rate, infant mortality and lifespan had massive progress even during the cultural revolution. CPC built a hydrogen bomb (1967, months before France) and nuclear attack submarine (1970, 10 years before Rubis) before France, a traditional European industrial power. There was absolutely no instance of the KMT ever having a major technological milestone before another industrial country in all of history, not one.

Here's the difference between KMT in 1945 and CPC in 1978: CPC in 1978 had leverage. KMT had no leverage. There was nothing that the KMT could provide to the West that the West did not already own, so what could the KMT demand in return? It comes back to the question of ownership. As both Adam Smith and Marx noted, it matters little who produces something - it matters who controls the profits and the means of production. KMT had no leverage thus the ownership of profits and technology belongs to foreigners alone. CPC had leverage so the foreigners had to transfer both technologies and profits until 1990 or so.

Also, the KMT started from a very low industrial base: less than 100 tons of steel production per year. With such a low industrial base, the most profitable ventures would NOT be to industrialize. Instead it'd be a focus on raw material export, agriculture and services, then exchanging those for manufactured goods from the outside world. Remember back in the day there was no globalization.

 

[gambit]

Objectively speaking, the CPC has done the most good for the Chinese people, by far.

After how many decades of poverty, starvation, and general oppression ? Or are you saying that those conditions are necessary ?

Lifting 800 million people out of poverty in a few decades, that has never been done before by any other country in human history.

So what ? Those decades of poverty were created by the CPC. That is like me abusing my car then I boast about it after spending a lot of money to fix it. The goal of a good government is to NOT put the country into dire situations in the first place.

The KMT on the other hand failed to handle even tiny Taiwan,...

Absurd. Taiwan surged ahead of mainland China in every metrics.

...over the last few decades they lost official diplomatic recognition from the entire world. What a failure.

Absurd. It was China who bribed and pressured other countries into diplomatic disavowal of Taiwan. Even so, economically speaking, Taiwan continues to prosper. No failure here.

HK/Macau/Singapore all did WAY better than Taiwan with the same benefit of a smaller population. But even then, they are all still too small to restore the power of the Chinese civilization, only the Mainland can do this. That's just being realistic.

How do you know they cannot do better than Mao for mainland China ?

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

纯粹意象天开,倭人今天让我在另一个帖子扇脸扇成灰了,受刺激了,然后连开几个关于历史帖子.你去添点东西,我不能发链接.

Yes, CPC is the nightmare for all China's enemies, that's why they hate it gut.

有些深蓝是具有迷惑性的，别看他们为中国的发展叫好，但心里和老共还是有血海深仇的，恨不得取而代之。

深蓝总是强调老共让老毛带了几十年的歪路，最后老邓的改革开放只能学习他们走三民主义的路，所以你大陆今天超级大国的地位是他们的三民主义带来的，所以他们才是正统，你大陆只能让他们回来重新执政。

深蓝吹牛不打草稿的水平和宇宙神油有一拼，没有老毛当时的累积，你拿什么来改革开放？ 一点民族的工业底子都没有到时候一开放又将成为别人的经济殖民地，永远都不能翻身。

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

How do you know they cannot do better than Mao for mainland China ?

Could do, would do.

That is all hypothetical. And hypothetical arguments are endless. The KMT had their chance, and they utterly failed.

The Mainland did the most good for the most Chinese people. That is simply a fact.

HK/Macau/Singapore did really good for a small number of Chinese people. Taiwan did poorly for a small number of Chinese people, with the head start they had (wealth they stole from the Mainland), they should have done better than HK/Macau/Singapore, but they didn't.

Even both your countries USA + Vietnam do not have any official recognition of Taiwan. You abandoned them in favour of relations with the PRC.