What is leading Indian army's rethink of its typically inelastic position on Siachin?

[Vapnope]

USA does not have put boots on the ground. They can supply India with weapons directly and through proxies.

Chinese troops in Tibet are sitting duck to American weapons

How fast America can provide weapons to India and how fast India can use those weapons in the case of conflict?
Please note that the war, if happens, would be a matter of days not weeks or months.

What did Qureshi say, and when?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291045197804122115

 

[Areesh]

1984 Op Meghdot has allowed India to check Pakistan in any attempt to gain access to Siachin and additionally it threats KKH if India goes into offensive.

Nope

Indians positions at Siachen are far away from KKH. They can't threaten it Other than boosting on internet Indian occupation of Siachen doesn't achieve much

Pakistan has effectively checkmate India on Siachen limiting it to frozen high posts with no where to move forward

 

[Basel]

This vital statement somehow evaded the radars of many all over the Pakistani internet; mainstream media in Pakistan is a lost cause anyway. The same Indian army which had scuttled efforts of Pakistani and Indian political leaderships to reach a settlement on the Siachin dispute (demilitarization) in the past is now expressing a desire to demilitarize the Siachin glacier. Indian military at no cost wanted to vacate from the Siachin glacier (and adjacent territories) given their strategic significance. What has led to this change of heart, reevaluation of the strategic calculus?

- Realization after wargaming scenarios where joint Pak-Sino operations cut off the Indian troops in Siachin?

- Desire to limit the probability of collaboration between the Pakistani and Chinese militaries in a future conflict in the North by eliminating at least one point of friction in the North?

- Reorienting manpower locked up in high altitudes of Siachin to more vulnerable LAC, MacMohan Line borders?

- Economic pressures of sustaining military pressures all along the Northern frontier and Siachin simultaneously?

- A combination of all the above factors?

An interesting thing to note is that many people have forgotten about a statement given by FM SMQ and reported by radio Pakistan back in 2020 when Pakistan was still fuming Indian unilateral actions in IoJK. The PLA had already completed its incursions into territory Indian either held or previously had access to in Laddakh. It is very interesting to note that the said link is nowhere to be found on RP's website anymore. This also coincides with the same time NSA, FM, DGMO, ISI chief were holding some meetings.

Indian army chief might know something we don't.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291045197804122115

Indians follow Chankia so when they are weak then they will try to be friendly with enemies to gain time to be strong and strike, during their friendly posture they will do everything to weaken their enemy from inside.

India have done this type of stuff several times in history Pakistan should not fall into their trap as they are now at weak position at Siachin due to Chinese advances at LAC.

 

[nahtanbob]

How fast America can provide weapons to India and how fast India can use those weapons in the case of conflict?
Please note that the war, if happens, would be a matter of days not weeks or months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1291045197804122115

It has to be weapons Indian military can use on their predominantly Russian combat platforms

 

[Basel]

what is worthy about Pakistan military capacity ? All out conventional air strikes against Pakistan in two front war will cripple Pakistan economically for decades. Most of Pakistan's economic infrastructure is within 200 miles of international border.

India alone can not cripple Pakistani air defense easily as you think, also they know exactly where is our threshold of going nuclear step by step.

 

[Titanium100]

It has to be weapons Indian military can use on their predominantly Russian combat platforms

O'right let us see these weapons deployed... Which the US won't do ever.. We will reinforce the entire ME with stragetic arsenal capability as response this is why they won't ever make weapon deals with them.

Even if they did it is not like they have alien technology or some sort of an edge it won't grant them anything to what they have currently.. We know what they have.. We won't be the losers by the US trying to infringe on our borders which will be seen as direct hostile act supplying our enemies on our borders but they will stragetically end up as the losers on a massive scale. We could change the dynamic upside down but they wouldn't be able

 

[Basel]

USA will not intervene. India is not relevant to USA Pacific security (that's why was it left out of AUKAS) and has no treaty obligations to do so.

All sides know that a major war will nuclear after a week or so....so fights will be limited to short intense limited exchanges. This favors Pakistan.

US may not directly intervene but indirectly they will, for that they have agreements with India and they can be very dangerous for Pakistan.

Also Praven an Indian army officer cum journalist is right that in future there may be only enforced one front war with Pakistan where Pakistan will be able to fight war of attrition due to full backing and support of China.

 

[Basel]

1984 Op Meghdot has allowed India to check Pakistan in any attempt to gain access to Siachin and additionally it threats KKH if India goes into offensive. There was a real concern that India can go to offensive to capture some area and bring Pakistan to table to give up on Kashmir or at least accept the current status quo as permanent.
Now when Chinese can effectively threaten DBO which will stretch Indian mountain division at Siachin to tackle China and Pakistan together, there is a need to find a solution in this situation. Demilitarization of Siachin in this case only favors India and not Pakistan which was the case since 1984.
Since the line is not marked or accepted mutually, whoever captures Siachin, retains it hence the statement from FM Qureshi.

Get out of 80s dear, it 21st century and on ground Indian army is not in position to go on offense, because if they do then they will allow China to cut them off from another from making them sandwich between Pakistan and China militaries.

 

[Cheepek]

Not true, demilitarization of Siachen has been in the talks for quite a while now. Some journalist in the press meet must have asked about Siachen again and the General just reiterated the official stance.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-pakistan-nearly-agreed-on-siachen-three-times-shyam-saran/article19631457.ece

 

[nahtanbob]

India alone can not cripple Pakistani air defense easily as you think, also they know exactly where is our threshold of going nuclear step by step.

It is lame discussing nuclear thresholds when Pakistan is aligning with a nuclear state like China to launch a two front war against another nuclear state like India

 

[Areesh]

Get out of 80s dear, it 21st century and on ground Indian army is not in position to go on offense, because if they do then they will allow China to cut them off from another from making them sandwich between Pakistan and China militaries.

There is no way Indian army can launch an offence from Siachen. Not against KKH or even Khaplu or Skardu

Unless Indian army create some Iron Man kind of suit for its soldiers

Pajeets are stuck freezing their asses

 

[nahtanbob]

O'right let us see these weapons deployed... Which the US won't do ever.. We will reinforce the entire ME with stragetic arsenal capability as response this is why they won't ever make weapon deals with them.

Even if they did it is not like they have alien technology or some sort of an edge it won't grant them anything to what they have currently.. We know what they have.. We won't be the losers by the US trying to infringe on our borders which will be seen as direct hostile act supplying our enemies on our borders but they will stragetically end up as the losers on a massive scale. We could change the dynamic upside down but they wouldn't be able

USA does not have to intervene directly. they can have UK, France, Israel or even Russia supply India with weapons.

 

[Titanium100]

USA does not have to intervene directly. they can have UK, France, Israel or even Russia supply India with weapons.

Russia is there normal supplier while Uk and Israel don't supply or atleast don't do it openly.. ISI will get hold of such informations in due to time and will know ahead of time even things such as ToT we are vigilante but as for the Russian weapons they sell them knock offs which is all good from our perspective... As I said there is technically nothing they could offer them that could provide as tie-breaker or any of that thing. We have China and Turkey providing which are the best in the business currently we will be competitively good for decades to come...

If they interfere in our stuff we have measures we could activate we will not be bullied on the land period this is a non-starter for us... We will go ME in such situation which we technically have no interest in currently but we could be provoked into a corner and it would give us no other option. It would just re-shape the geo-political landscape in the world all of sudden there would be multiple nations and they will get pre-occupied elsewhere mission accomplished

 

[Basel]

It is lame discussing nuclear thresholds when Pakistan is aligning with a nuclear state like China to launch a two front war against another nuclear state like India

It's India who advocate to fight 2 front war not Pakistan or China, as for your information Pakistani military since time of Raheel Sharif have developed new doctrine for fighting multiple front war, external and internal.

Why India backed out on 28.02.2019 after PAF strikes at LOC?? They had deployed their mighty brahmos and even BMs but still they backed out why??

Because they were send clear message from Pakistan that for ever 1 missile launched by India, Pakistan will launch 3 missiles and will consider BM launch from India as nuclear attack, this message was backed by massive missiles deployment by Pakistan and evacuation of key military areas with blackouts, Indian got the message and backed out wisely.

 

[arjunk]

It is lame discussing nuclear thresholds when Pakistan is aligning with a nuclear state like China to launch a two front war against another nuclear state like India

India is and has always been the one to attack Pakistan. In 1971 they desired to used their conventional advantages destroy Pakistan once and for all, and had the US not intervened as the Soviets were helping India, that would have happened.

India still has fantasies of capturing Lahore and Multan, "limited" war by capturing large chunks of Sindh and South Punjab - just recently they officially threatened to capture Pakistan-held Kashmir. Thus, Pakistan has made it clear that it will vaporise any Indian formation that crosses its red line. This was the strategy of NATO in the cold war.

Now that India has decided to pick fights with China - a country their own size - things have changed.

However, India will never attack China and Pakistan will never attack India first. The one to start a war will be India and their Cold Start Doctrine (though I hear they have replaced this with something new)