Vietnam Defence Forum

[Viet]

let me ask you a question, say you win, you decisively defeat China in a naval battle, then what?

The Chinese power is not based on military, but by our infrastructure, like educated masses, manufacturing and service sectors, roads and rails, in terms of military, the research teams, experiences in design and manufacturing, funding and much much more.

Military is just a by product of the above.


If Vietnam won decisively, would Vietnam be dominate? Would Vietnam be seen as a great power? Could Vietnam get the upper hand? Could Vietnam assert control if Vietnam won?

The last thing we want is conflict, friction and confrontation, least with China. All we want is peace and prosperity for our country. From China especially respect and equatility. But that seems impossible.

Your country China has hardened the stance much under Xi Jinping. He is determined to lead China back to the glorious past. That is very worrisome. As Carlosa puts it, you are creating a atmosphere of fear.

 

[Viet]

In ASEAN only Philippines and Vietnam are hostile to China. Vietnam is trying to make things better. So it leave us with just the Philippines. That's the reality.

Well, unlike Vietnam, the 3 claimants Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei don't have a formidable army to deter you from adventurism. Nor have they spine to stand up. The Philippines has the military backing of the United States.

 

[eazzy]

Formidable army. Lol.

 

[Genesis]

The last thing we want is conflict, friction and confrontation, least with China. All we want is peace and prosperity for our country. From China especially respect and equatility. But that seems impossible.

Your country China has hardened the stance much under Xi Jinping. He is determined to lead China back to the glorious past. That is very worrisome. As Carlosa puts it, you are creating a atmosphere of fear.

Well no war means either status quo or one of us pushes the other back. Neither one of us will accept the former, and only one of us can do the latter, so..... At some point either negotiate or war.

So, I'm just talking, if war, what do you think, Vietnam wins decisively, then what? You become great power China becomes weak and back off forever? Can Vietnam even maintain that part of the ocean with its limited force even if PLAN is decimated? Assuming no casualties on Vietnam's part.

 

[Carlosa]

Well, unlike Vietnam, the 3 claimants Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei don't have a formidable army to deter you from adventurism. Nor have they spine to stand up. The Philippines has the military backing of the United States.

Allow me a correction; Indonesia does have a decent military and is rearming fast as well as getting very serious about weapons manufacturing. They do have spine to fight (actually, they are very nasty in warfare). They were trying to stay neutral and until a year ago or so they were not clear if they have claims issues with china, but recent actions from China made it clear to them that they do, so now they are starting to react and they see china as a threat. China is making a big mistake making an enemy out of Indonesia, Indonesia is the dark horse in the region, they will become a significant regional power.

Totally agree with you regarding Malaysia and Brunei, those dance to the tune of chinese dollars (or Yuan / RMB). Malaysia response to chinese incursions is to pretend that it didn't happen: "chinese ships? what chinese ships? we didn't see anything" . Incredibly shameful !!!!

 

[Carlosa]

Well no war means either status quo or one of us pushes the other back. Neither one of us will accept the former, and only one of us can do the latter, so..... At some point either negotiate or war.

So, I'm just talking, if war, what do you think, Vietnam wins decisively, then what? You become great power China becomes weak and back off forever? Can Vietnam even maintain that part of the ocean with its limited force even if PLAN is decimated? Assuming no casualties on Vietnam's part.

Obviously Vietnam is not going to win a full war against china, but it can make china pay a heavy price and cause significant economic damage. It actually doesn't take too much to close the south china sea to navigation, Vietnam is very capable of doing that. The end result is massive economic damage for both and possibly a situation that brings other parties in. Is that in the benefit of china?

If we are talking ground war, I don't think china is foolish enough to want to get into that.

Is easy to start something or to overreach or to be overconfident and miscalculate the consequences, China is going in a very dangerous direction, its risking what they built in the last 30 years.

Its a principle of physics, "an action creates a reaction", watch out for the reaction that you didn't expect or calculated.

 

[Genesis]

Obviously Vietnam is not going to win a full war against china, but it can make china pay a heavy price and cause significant economic damage. It actually doesn't take too much to close the south china sea to navigation, Vietnam is very capable of doing that. The end result is massive economic damage for both and possibly a situation that brings other parties in. Is that in the benefit of china?

If we are talking ground war, I don't think china is foolish enough to want to get into that.

Is easy to start something or to overreach or to be overconfident and miscalculate the consequences, China is going in a very dangerous direction, its risking what they built in the last 30 years.

Its a principle of physics, "an action creates a reaction", watch out for the reaction that you didn't expect or calculated.

So pretty much Vietnam is intimidating enough to China to deter us. Cool. Well if that's truly the case problem solved.

 

[Carlosa]

So pretty much Vietnam is intimidating enough to China to deter us. Cool. Well if that's truly the case problem solved.

I think you don't understand that a country defending itself doesn't have to be as powerful as the attacking country in order to be successful. Vietnam already demonstrated that to USA and France in the past.

In ground warfare for example, it is a typical rule that the attacking forces need to be 3 to 5 times stronger than the defending forces in order to be successful. China has a much bigger army, but it is deployed in many fronts, it can't put all is resources in just one border.

Obviously china has the most advantage in a naval and air war, but there is still a price to pay.

Vietnam is not intimidating to china, but is not a pushover either. Its up to china to decide if Vietnam has enough power of deterrence or not, but I would suggest that they don't miscalculate as the americans did.

As Ho Chi Minh once said after the french defeat: "They lost because they don't understand our history". Does china understand Vietnam's history?

 

[eazzy]

I think Vietnam can't do anything alone.

 

[terranMarine]

As Ho Chi Minh once said after the french defeat: "They lost because they don't understand our history". Does china understand Vietnam's history?

After ruling Vietnam for over a thousand years what do you think yourself?
Don't judge too fast about the French defeat, France did rule Vietnam as well including Japan during WW2. As for the Americans, it was also thanks to China's contribution to the Vietnam War. Vietnamese have taken credit for many things here on this forum, not surprising you guys feel superior of beating France, China and the Americans.

 

[Viet]

I think Vietnam can't do anything alone.

you are right.

the imbalance of power leaves us little room. in a hypthetical war with China, we will likely do what we had done successfully in the past: escalating and expanding the conflict, that means worsening the regional to the international war.

that means we will draw as many as possible other nations into the conflict: America, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, and others into the mess. the battlegrounds will be not limited to Vietnam and the South China Sea, but Southern China, Hainan island, the Gulf of Thailand, Laos and Cambodia, perhaps Thailand, too.

the last four major wars against France, America, China and Cambodia followed that pattern. That won´t be of much difference at next encounter. So it is not wise just to compare the actual (weak) armed forces of Vietnam to (strong) China and conclude the PLA will win. One should not forget the dynamic of a war. the outcome of a war is usually unpredictable.

plus, should the confrontation escalate into a war, Vietnam would seek a alliance with a major military power. the likelyhood that happens is 100 per cent.

did I mention that we could acquire nuclear weapons as last resort? in 10 years we could build it by ourselves.

 

[Viet]

Formidable army. Lol.

we have a long military tradition that goes back more than 1,000 years, no, 2,000 years with the Trung sisters.

 

[eazzy]

I guess Mongolia have the best army in the world then.

 

[Viet]

I guess Mongolia have the best army in the world then.

yes, back then, the Mongol hordes conquered China, but failed in Vietnam.
you see that is the difference. We defeated the Mongols, while you became slaves.

 

[Carlosa]

After ruling Vietnam for over a thousand years what do you think yourself?
Don't judge too fast about the French defeat, France did rule Vietnam as well including Japan during WW2. As for the Americans, it was also thanks to China's contribution to the Vietnam War. Vietnamese have taken credit for many things here on this forum, not surprising you guys feel superior of beating France, China and the Americans.

Remember, I'm not Vietnamese, I don't have the emotional, nationalistic stuff that vietnamese and chinese people have. I have a position, but I try to be objective, most of you guys have your perceptions colored by nationalistic emotions and you don't see things objectively.

I'm telling you, war with Vietnam will not be a walk in the park, if you were to know and understand vietnamese people, you would understand that. These people have a hell of a fighting spirit, they don't give up, they are like a spring, the more you push it down, the stronger that it comes back up.

Warfare is not just counting tanks and planes, etc. Look at the Afghans, nobody has been able to defeat them, just ask the russians and americans. How many tanks, planes and helicopters does the Taliban have? You can invade them, but they'll keep fighting until they push you out. The Vietnamese will accept the total ruin of their country and economy as the price of victory. How about china? I don't think so? Vietnam got invaded multiple times, but in the end, they always prevail.