US should offer ‘criteria-based’ N-deal to Pakistan
By Anwar Iqbal
Tuesday, 22 Jun, 2010
WASHINGTON:
The United States should consider offering a criteria-based nuclear deal to Pakistan instead of sending it to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, a key US think-tank suggested on Monday.
On the day when the 46-nation NSG begins a four-day meeting in New Zealand, which is likely to take up a Chinese plan to provide two nuclear reactors to Pakistan, the Rand Corporation urged the United States to reconsider its policies towards Pakistan.
The group, which employs a significant number of former US intelligence officials, suggested that “a criteria-based approach with Pakistan could be possible”.
The explicit criteria could be tied to access to A. Q. Khan, greater visibility into Pakistan’s programme, submission to safeguards, a strategic decision to abandon militancy as a tool of foreign and domestic policy, and empirically verifiable metrics in eliminating militant groups operating in and from Pakistan.
The proposed deal could have elements that are much more restrictive than the one the US made with India five years ago.
“For example, it could be based on an exclusive relationship with the United States, rather than seeking broad accommodation with the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group and other regimes that limit the proliferation of nuclear technology and access to materials for nuclear programmes,” the study suggested.
Authors Christine Fair of Georgetown University and Seth Jones of Rand Corporation suggested that “such a deal would confer acceptance of Islamabad’s nuclear weapon programme and reward it for the improvements in nuclear security it has made since 2002”.
They noted that in the long shadow of A. Q. Khan and continued uncertainty about the status of his networks, “it is easy to forget that Pakistan has established a Strategic Plans Division that has done much to improve the safety of the country’s nuclear assets”.
In exchange for fundamental recognition of its nuclear status and civilian assistance, Pakistan would have to meet two criteria: It would have to provide the kind of access and cooperation on nuclear suppliers’ networks identified in the Kerry-Lugar-Berman legislation. Pakistan would also have to demonstrate sustained and verifiable commitment in combating all terrorist groups on its soil.
“Such a civilian nuclear deal could achieve the goals that Kerry-Lugar-Berman could not because it would offer Pakistan benefits that it actually values and that only the United States can meaningfully confer,” the authors noted.
The study, however, observed that a nuclear deal will not be an easy sale either in Washington or in Islamabad, much less in New Delhi.
Details of the Indo-US deal are still being negotiated more than five years after the idea was initially floated.
The authors concede that a deal with Islamabad will be even more protracted than the deal with New Delhi because of A. Q. Khan’s activities and the clout of domestic lobbies in Washington.
The authors also acknowledge that even this deal may not provide Pakistan adequate incentives to eliminate terror groups or provide access to such individuals as A. Q. Khan.
The authors also urged the US administration to offer “a serious economic carrot” to Pakistan, which has long sought access to economic and trade concessions, especially for textiles.
The authors warned that some US economic initiatives were unlikely to be useful. For example, setting up Reconstruction Economic Zones in Fata, Kashmir, and the earthquake-affected areas is unlikely to have an appreciable effect on local economic activity even if it would have some public-relations value.
Instead, the study titled “Counter-insurgency in Pakistan” urged a free trade agreement between the two allies.
“If the United States seeks to achieve a greater economic effect, Washington and Islamabad should consider signing a free trade agreement, which would affect more people.”
This initiative too would be subject to requirements like a phased and verifiable end to any support for militant groups and greater visibility into Pakistan’s nuclear weapons.
AP adds: Pakistan hasn’t quit its habit of courting insurgents, and extremist networks with current or former ties to the government pose a significant risk to the United States and Pakistan’s elected government itself, the study concludes.
A rising number of terrorist plots in the United States with roots in Pakistan stems in part from an unsuccessful strategy by the US-backed government in Pakistan to blunt the influence of militant groups in the country, the report by the Rand Corporation said.
The report says the May 1 failed car bombing in New York’s Times Square is an example of how militant groups, some with shadowy government backing, can increasingly export terrorism far beyond the country’s borders.
The United States isn’t getting its money’s worth for all the billions in aid pledged to the strategically located, nuclear-armed nation, the report concludes. The US should withhold some aid until Pakistan makes “discernible progress”, the report said.
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Dangerous scenario