@Tech Lahore: I have no doubts that sino-pak deal will not be done. It will go ahead as per plan.
I was only answering why west and USA thinks not good about that. China has helped Pakistan exceptionally and will also be able to Improve its own nuclear reactor designs (China is not a well versed nuclear reactor trader) via this deal (my assumptions) and further will provide nuclear fuel from its own stock or its Australian purchases.
Why India was not signing the CTBT and NTP was not because we are poor with our calculations about minimum credible deterrence but to expose and protest how China has exploited the International norms. I was wondering what could be the scene if India had signed the above two, Pakistan had followed the suite and China had opened its doors to Pakistan without any restriction. Why India will be watching closely to this deal is not because it will give Pakistan the requisite recognition as legitimate nuclear power but how China will set precedence for future Indian aspirations without its so called influence on Indian decision making. Obviously China will do this deal at the cost of India but the beneficiary will be India as well including Pakistan enjoying diplomatic clashes of US-China.
Please don't say to me i am now defencive, we know how many and what minimum types of nukes we need to deter both China and Pakistan but how many Pakistan and China need to deter US Russia and India collectively is the catch of this deal. i will pray to god that this deal will be done.
Please read this link it will help you to understand why investing in Nuclear energy for civilian needs is ineffectual (as you say and i don't trust), full of risks and a costlier for ordinary Pakistanis to buy.
http://www.npolicy.org/files/20081107-Dalberg-Pakistan.pdf
I was only answering why west and USA thinks not good about that. China has helped Pakistan exceptionally and will also be able to Improve its own nuclear reactor designs (China is not a well versed nuclear reactor trader) via this deal (my assumptions) and further will provide nuclear fuel from its own stock or its Australian purchases.
Why India was not signing the CTBT and NTP was not because we are poor with our calculations about minimum credible deterrence but to expose and protest how China has exploited the International norms. I was wondering what could be the scene if India had signed the above two, Pakistan had followed the suite and China had opened its doors to Pakistan without any restriction. Why India will be watching closely to this deal is not because it will give Pakistan the requisite recognition as legitimate nuclear power but how China will set precedence for future Indian aspirations without its so called influence on Indian decision making. Obviously China will do this deal at the cost of India but the beneficiary will be India as well including Pakistan enjoying diplomatic clashes of US-China.
Please don't say to me i am now defencive, we know how many and what minimum types of nukes we need to deter both China and Pakistan but how many Pakistan and China need to deter US Russia and India collectively is the catch of this deal. i will pray to god that this deal will be done.
Please read this link it will help you to understand why investing in Nuclear energy for civilian needs is ineffectual (as you say and i don't trust), full of risks and a costlier for ordinary Pakistanis to buy.
Notably, even if the development of nuclear power meets high estimates, it will not be likely to constitute a significant contribution to the overall mix. Currently, Pakistan has two nuclear power plants with 300 megawatts and 125 megawatts of capacity (Chashma-1 and Kanupp). Pakistan’s third nuclear power plant, Chashma-2, is expected to be completed by 2009 and comprise 325 megawatts of installed capacity. The Government of Pakistan estimates suggest a 13% growth rate which would yield approximately 6-8 gigawatts of nuclear power generation. This would comprise only about 3-6% of the electricity generation by 2030.
The projections for the various supply options are almost uniformly ambitious, but especially so for nuclear. From 2005 to 2030, it is expected that nuclear generation will increase at a growth rate of 13%.
Because nuclear faces immense challenges in terms of capital intensity and accessibility of supplies and technology, the growth rates implied for nuclear development suggest the attainment of targets that very few countries in the world have been able to achieve. However, as a non-signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, there are international embargoes on the transfer of such technology to Pakistan.China is currently the only supplier of nuclear power plants and components to Pakistan, but to meet the projections Pakistan would require access to advanced nuclear supplies and technologies from Western countries.
Globally, the historical data of nuclear power development suggests that few countries have been able to achieve and maintain a consistently high growth rate for nuclear development as per Pakistan’s estimates. South Korea comes the closest to reaching the trajectory and sustainability of nuclear power generation with a 14.3% growth rate over the 15 years from 1980 to 2005. The U.S. and France both had much faster growth from 1980 until approximately the early 1990s (at 7% and 14% respectively), but their nuclear development programs have since leveled off.23By contrast, India has only attained a 4.9% growth rate for its nuclear development.24 In order for Pakistan to meet its own nuclear power development estimates over the next 30 years, it would have to emulate or surpass the efforts of countries like South Korea, France, or the United States.
Nuclear development also requires considerable coordination between the private and public sectors, requiring rather strong government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and control of corruption since nuclear projects require large capital expenditures. Relative to countries such as the U.S., France, and South Korea that have successfully developed nuclear power generation at impressive growth rates, Pakistan’s measure on these governance indicators is significantly lower.
Conclusion:
With a portfolio approach encompassing traditional and renewable energy sources, along with energy efficiency measures, Pakistan can meet its electricity needs through 2030 if it chooses to forego nuclear power development. The role of nuclear in the mix of electricity generation by 2030 is not vital. First, the estimates for nuclear development are quite ambitious and rest on the assumption that Pakistan could replicate the development trajectory of the U.S., France, and South Korea. Second, nuclear development requires significant private and public sector coordination, resting on a solid foundation of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and control over corruption. Compared with those countries that have successfully developed nuclear power in the past, Pakistan falls short of these metrics. Finally, even if the high estimates are achieved by Pakistan, the resulting contribution would represent only 3-6% of total electricity generation. Furthermore, Pakistan’s overall contribution to global carbon emissions remains miniscule at 0.4%, so substitution through an aggressive nuclear energy program does not suggest meaningful progress on the climate change agenda.
http://www.npolicy.org/files/20081107-Dalberg-Pakistan.pdf