Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

[F-22Raptor]

TAIPEI (Reuters) - Russia's poor performance in its Ukraine war will make China more cautious about attacking Taiwan as Beijing is watching the conflict to learn military lessons, Taiwan's government on Wednesday cited a meeting of senior advisers as saying.

Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has raised its alert level since the Russian invasion, wary of Beijing possibly making a similar move on the island, though it has reported no signs this is about to happen.

Taiwan's Mainland Affairs Council said in a statement following a meeting of its China policy advisers that Beijing was watching Russia's combat experience, Ukraine's resistance and international sanctions "to deduce the possible situation of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait".

It cited the advisers as saying that the war had "great lessons" for China's People's Liberation Army, "especially the Russian military's over-estimation of its long-range precision strikes".


Russia misjudged the war situation, did not properly analyse intelligence and its generals were promoted based on personal relationships, not talent, they added.

"This will also affect the trust of Chinese communist leaders in their army, and they will be more cautious when using force."

Russian precision-guided missiles are failing up to 60% of the time in Ukraine, U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the issue have told Reuters, a possible explanation for the poor progress of Russia's invasion.

The possible impact of the war on China's military thinking on Taiwan, and how China could attack the island, has been widely debated in official circles in Taipei.

Asked about those kinds of remarks, China's Taiwan Affairs Office said earlier on Wednesday that the government was willing to make the greatest efforts to achieve "peaceful reunification".

"At the same time, we will never tolerate Taiwan independence. If Taiwan independence separatist forces dare to provoke and push things, or even cross red lines, we will take decisive measures," spokesperson Zhu Fenglian said in Beijing.

China has been stepping up its military pressure against Taiwan over the past two years or so.

Taiwan rejects China's sovereignty claims, and says only the island's people can decide their future.

Ukraine war will make China more cautious on Taiwan, advisers say

Russia's poor performance in its Ukraine war will make China more cautious about attacking Taiwan as Beijing is watching the conflict to learn military lessons, Taiwan's government on Wednesday cited a meeting of senior advisers as saying. Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, has...

news.yahoo.com

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

the biggest lessons are actually all bad for Taiwan.

 

[Knockingdoors]

the biggest lessons are actually all bad for Taiwan.

Lmao.. I agree with you.. There is alot of truth in that because they will make sure that if they move on Taiwan they will use nukes.. If Taiwan gets hit once the battle could be over before it even starts

 

[gambit]

Lmao.. I agree with you.. There is alot of truth in that because they will make sure that if they move on Taiwan they will use nukes

What a ringing endorsement of the PLA...That annihilation is the only tactic it know...

 

[F-22Raptor]

What a ringing endorsement of the PLA...That annihilation is the only tactic it know...

We see how atrocious Russian supply lines are.

Good luck keeping open supply lines to Chinese troops over 100 miles of sea against Taiwan, Japanese, and US forces.

And we see how important training and experience is in Ukraine. China has even less war experience than the Russians.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Unlike Ukraine, China has the advantage of using naval blockade to prevent Taiwanese to gather resupply and armaments.

 

[gambit]

Unlike Ukraine, China has the advantage of using naval blockade to prevent Taiwanese to gather resupply and armaments.

So let us assume that no one will come to Taiwan's aid, for now.

What if from now until the war, the US and allies helped Taiwan to stock up defensive armaments, ranging from urban warfare to anti-ship?

 

[waz]

Ukraine does have certain geographical advantages, for one it's a large country and has strategic depth, Taiwan is tiny. It borders friendly states which allowed the smooth facilitation of weapons and food supplies for its troops, Taiwan doesn't and has water to traverse even if states try. Ukraine could evacuate large amount of its civilian population thus avoided large scale civilian deaths, Taiwanese evacuations would be much harder.

 

[Skull and Bones]

So let us assume that no one will come to Taiwan's aid, for now.

What if from now until the war, the US and allies helped Taiwan to stock up defensive armaments, ranging from urban warfare to anti-ship?

China will have some serious losses, no doubt. I'm not sure how experienced China is in urban warfare.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Kiev has a population of 2.5-3M

Taipei has an urban population of 8-9M.

Have fun with that China.

 

[gambit]

China will have some serious losses, no doubt. I'm not sure how experienced China is in urban warfare.

Now let us assume that the US and allies, Asian and EU, decides to help Taiwan ala Ukraine, meaning not troops but materiel DURING the war. So Taiwan inflict serious losses on the PLAN making the blockade weaker, then we resupply Taiwan defenses.

 

[SABRE]

Even if a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan fails the war will flatten Taiwanese infrastructure almost completely and destroyed its economy, just as in Ukraine's case. Russia may not be winning but Ukraine is losing a lot by the hour.

 

[Rafi]

We see how atrocious Russian supply lines are.

Good luck keeping open supply lines to Chinese troops over 100 miles of sea against Taiwan, Japanese, and US forces.

And we see how important training and experience is in Ukraine. China has even less war experience than the Russians.

Actually quite easy, the very fact that it is just 100 miles off the coast, is its biggest weakness. China could just pound it for weeks and enforce a brutal naval blockade, and then land troops when it feels it has sufficiently degraded their forces.

The Yanks will not intervene, table top exercises have concluded that China wins every time, and with every year the PLA grows stronger.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Kiev has a population of 2.5-3M

Taipei has an urban population of 8-9M.

Have fun with that China.

And I think Taiwan has mandatory military training, not sure though.

 

[F-22Raptor]

Ukraine does have certain geographical advantages, for one it's a large country and has strategic depth, Taiwan is tiny. It borders friendly states which allowed the smooth facilitation of weapons and food supplies for its troops, Taiwan doesn't and has water to traverse even if states try. Ukraine could evacuate large amount of its civilian population thus avoided large scale civilian deaths, Taiwanese evacuations would be much harder.

China will have to continuously supply its forces over 100 miles of sea. Extremely difficult if US and Japan forces are engaged in combat. Taiwan is also a better equipped force than Ukraine and can strike Chinese staging areas, ports, and airfields.