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Turkey’s S-400 vs F-35 dilemma in 2019

F-35 vs S-400; If Turkey had to choose one, which one should it choose?

  • F-35

  • S-400


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That one point is againg the point they use:-) when they force you to do. Other then that it is a good fighter with strings from politics.

We can criticize all politics points easily. But while making the comment about the aircraft we should be realistic. It is a good aircraft with network-based battlefield specifications.
 
For people who are crying about what we lost, wtf are you going to do when we face American interests against our? You did see it, F35 mean 100% American dependent. You can stock your parts but when the stock is finished what then?
Your point would only be valid if we had an alternativ.
 
We don't have no other option then to focus on MMU...
Nobody can say the future of MMU with certainty at this point. You cannot rely on something that doesn't exist for securing your country.

So the question basically comes down to this: Would you rather not have a fighter jet at all or have fighter jets with some foreign interference like every other country on earth that doesn't produce it's own fighter jets?
 
Some people don't understand that you can't gamble here, if MMU somehow is not successful we will stay like idiots in the rain for a very long time.
We need at least a small amount of new fighters... and to the MMU project itself, let's be realistic and not overestimate our capabilities (engine). We have to cooperate here with foreigners if we like it or not.
 
Nobody can say the future of MMU with certainty at this point. You cannot rely on something that doesn't exist for securing your country.

So the question basically comes down to this: Would you rather not have a fighter jet at all or have fighter jets with some foreign interference like every other country on earth that doesn't produce it's own fighter jets?


Untill the day comes when the airforce is grounded because of some senator speaks about it:-).
 
Let me drop a picture of our pilots with the F-35 :disagree:

EWjv0uDWsA0IuUd
 
Ismail Demir:
Kendi ifadeleriyle projeye en az 500-600 milyon dolarlık ek maliyet geleceği dillendirildi. Bizim hesaplarımıza göre uçak başına en az 8 veya 10 milyon dolar civarında ilave maliyet geleceğini ön görüyoruz. Türkiye'ye çok net mesajlar verilmeye kalkıldı. Biz bu süreçte sürekli olarak sadık bir ortak tavrını gösterdik, imzamıza sadık kalacağımızı gösterdik. Net olarak Türkiye'deki program ortaklarının işlerinin durdurulacağı ve buna tarih verildiği belirtilen açıklamalar olduğu halde hiçbir karşı açıklama yapmadan süreç normal devam ediyormuşcasına, 'Biz işimize bakarız, biz üzerimize düşen yükümlülükleri yerine getiririz' tavrında olduk. Bunun bugün faydasını görüyoruz.

Mart 2020 son tarihti geçen yılki açıklamalarda, bu tarih geldi geçti. Üretimler devam ediyor, siparişler devam ediyor. 'Bir kere de ipi kestim attım. Artık Türkiye'yi çıkarttım' demek çok kolay değil. Hatta Türk sanayiinin bu ortaklığa katkısı konusunda ABD yetkililerinin de çok çeşitli ortamlarda, şirketlerimizin performansı ile ilgili üretim kaliteleri, maliyetleri ve teslim süreleriyle ilgili sitayişle bahsettikleri demeçleri olduğu halde bu kararı aldılar. Bugün görüyoruz ki; bu yetkin üretici şirketlerimizin yerine yeni üreticilerin bulunması o kadar da kolay bir süreç değilmiş. Bu pandemi süreci bunu daha da ileri boyuta taşıdı. Yine biz bulunduğumuz noktadayız. Üretim ortaklığımıza devam ederiz. 'Siz bizi çıkartmaya kalktınız, bize tavır aldınız. Madem öyle üretimi durduruyoruz' gibi restleşmeye gitmedik, gitmeyeceğiz. Çünkü, bir ortaklık anlaşması varsa, bir yola çıkıldıysa bu yola çıkan ortakların sadakatle buna devam etmesi gerektiğine inanıyoruz."

English:
Ismail Demir:
According to their (American) own confessions removing Turkey from the F-35 would result in a cost increase of 500-600 million USD. Our calculations show that the cost per aircraft would increase by 8 to 10 million USD if Turkey was removed. They tried to threaten Turkey, but we showed that we are committed partners. We are seeing the benefits of this today.

March 2020 was given as the end date for Turkey's industrial participation in the F-35 program, but we are still producing parts and receiving orders. ... This pandemic period even intensified Turkey's participation in the program. ... We will continue to uphold our responsibilities and will not retaliate to the US.
 
I hope we can have our f35s especially f35b why did we buy s400? Price of downing Russian junk?Sometimes i cant understand what our leaders are thinking.We were supposed to get literally free 120 f35s but no we bought s400...
First of all, hoşgeldin kardeşim. Yes, our F-35s can be counted as free if we consider the tens of billions of dollars worth of industrial participation, but that money will come out of the budget of Army; so in another means, the army still won't make the money it lost. And the S-400 is not a junk, maybe it is not an effectve anti-ballistic system but it is the best anti-aircraft system out there. But, everyone knows that the S-400 deal was more of a political one than militarily one. That system will work as standalone and out of everyone, we should be the ones who are the most aware of it thanks to our experience in Libya and Syria. Our own high altitude anti-aircraft systems are almost ready, why didn't we wait for 2 or 3 years and invested that money in domestic ones instead if we managed to wait 30 years already?
 
I hope we can have our f35s especially f35b why did we buy s400? Price of downing Russian junk?Sometimes i cant understand what our leaders are thinking. We were supposed to get literally free 120 f35s but no we bought s400...

Actually, S-400 isn't the reason why we can't get the F-35s. S-400 just an easily acceptable cover.
F-35 is a really different fighter than the previous generation, first of all, all countries get the same model with the US. This make the F-35 really a strategic tool. The US politicians decided to sale the F-35s only to trustworthy countries. Turkey was a big an important partner for the US in the MEA then they change the plan and decided to use a terrorist organisation, they start to consider Turkey as a less important partner. S-400 was a just cover for them, according to their perspective Turkey is not trustworthy. That's why we need to support our national projects not only the main projects but also the subsystem projects.
 


Turkey’s S-400 delay is about more than just the economy and COVID-19
Turkey’s deepening economic woes are widely seen as the prime reason behind its decision to delay the activation of the Russian S-400 systems. But an array of other factors have been at play that are forcing Ankara to think twice.

GettyImages-1168343455-570.jpg

TURKISH NATIONAL DEFENSE MINISTRY/HANDOUT/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images.
BY METIN GURCAN

Apr 23, 2020

When Russia began delivering the S-400 air defense systems to Turkey last summer, the NATO member country was almost in a festive mood, with television channels broadcasting live the arrival of cargo planes to an air base outside of Ankara from July to August. Around that time, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the systems would become operational in April 2020 — a timetable he would confirm at least seven times thereafter despite US moves to dissuade and penalize Turkey. The missiles arrived by sea in December as Ankara was already testing the systems. In January, air force officers who received training in Russia on operating the systems were officially assigned to their new duties.

With April already rolling along, the S-400s remain unpacked at Murted Airfield Command. The way Ankara chose to disclose the “delay” was a low-key statement to Reuters. “There is no going back on the decision to activate the S-400s, [but] due to COVID-19 … the plan for them to be ready in April will be delayed,” an anonymous official told the news agency April 20.

The delay should have pleased Washington, though it reiterated its concerns. “We continue to stress at the highest levels that the S-400 transaction is the subject of ongoing CAATSA sanctions deliberations, and it remains a major obstacle in the bilateral relationship and at NATO,” State Department spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus said, referring to the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. “We are confident that President Erdogan and his senior officials understand our position,” she added.

Obviously, the reason for Ankara’s decision to delay the activation of the S-400 regiment, made up of four batteries worth $2.5 billion, is not technical. And even though the coronavirus pandemic is cited as the reason, the decision is utterly political. Tellingly, the pandemic has not disrupted any Turkish military operations either at home or in Syria and Iraq. It has had no impact in military terms that requires postponing the activation of the systems.

Turkey’s worsening economic woes are widely seen as the prime reason behind the postponement. Indeed, any sanctions under CAATSA would heighten the grave economic risks the pandemic is posing to Turkey. Of note, Ankara has already approached the US Federal Reserve for a currency swap deal, seeking up to $10 billion amid a drawdown in foreign reserves. Due to domestic political concerns, Ankara is reluctant to seek help from the International Monetary Fund. In short, activating the S-400s could have a big economic cost for Turkey akin to the currency crisis in the summer of 2018, which was triggered by a row with Washington over the detention of an American pastor.

Yet Turkey’s desperate need for hard currency to salvage its pandemic-hit economy is not the only factor at play. The delay is driven by at least three other factors: namely, Ankara’s shifting geostrategic orientation in Syria in a bid to balance Iran and Russia, and its need to remain in the good graces of US President Donald Trump, its sole ally in Washington, and manage public perceptions at home.

In Syria, Turkey’s face-off with its partners Russia and Iran in Idlib in February showed how Turkish and American interests have become more aligned in the Syrian war. The limits of cooperation with Moscow have come to clearly manifest themselves, both in Syria’s northwest and northeast. Despite a deal between Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin in early March, the confidence gap between the two sides has grown over the critical M4 highway in southern Idlib, where a fresh crisis seems to be brewing amid Ankara’s attempts to unify Sunni armed groups — moderates and radicals alike — in a bid to counter the increasing presence of pro-Iranian militia and the reinforced troops of the Syrian regime. Washington, for its part, is fully aware that it could have no other ally than Ankara with the capacity to balance Russia and counter pro-Iranian military presence in northern Syria and around Deir ez-Zor to the east.

Another factor has to do with the personal relationship between Erdogan and Trump, who has been rather lenient toward Turkey in the face of congressional pressure for sanctions. According to a source in Ankara who requested anonymity, the crisis over pastor Andrew Brunson in 2018 taught Erdogan a lesson about the consequences of bickering with Trump, and the coronavirus pandemic was a godsend to avert a fresh crisis over the S-400s. “When Trump hosted Erdogan for four hours at the White House summit in November 2019, he personally brought up and emphasized the S-400 issue. He made it clear that activation was a redline for Washington, and he could no longer defend Ankara if the systems were activated,” the source said, adding, “The [coronavirus] outbreak came just in time for Ankara to overcome that squeeze.”

Finally, there is Turkey’s domestic front. Activating the S-400s at present risks triggering public pressure led by the opposition to move the systems to the Syrian border to protect the Turkish troops in Idlib. About 22,000 Turkish troops are currently deployed at 56 outposts across Idlib, deprived of any defense against medium-range air and ballistic missiles, which has led to the loss of 61 soldiers since late February. Opinion polls show that the campaign in Idlib has lacked the public support accorded to Turkey’s earlier military campaigns in Syria. Erdogan would be hard-pressed to explain why the activated systems are kept in Ankara while Turkish soldiers in Idlib are in urgent need of air cover, but moving the weapons to the border would obviously spark a fresh crisis with Moscow. Thus, stepping back from activating the systems for now serves also to avoid a crisis in domestic politics.

No doubt, the decision is annoying to Moscow, which has been hoping to sell Ankara another regiment of four S-400 batteries after Turkish pledges to buy more. How long could Erdogan keep the S-400 unboxed without falling out with Putin? The delay may have bought Ankara a couple of months’ time, but managing the crisis without infuriating either Putin or Trump remains a tall order.

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